By: Kyle Williams (Twitter: @betonthegame)
The NFL is a strange place right now, injuries are occurring, players are failing, and teams are imploding. In what world would we be saying things like, “the Patriots are rebuilding”, “the Cowboys might be the worst NFC East team”, and “the Browns are a legit contender.” None of the things looked remotely close to coming true before the season started but here we are. With this week in the books, let’s dive in and see what we are buying and selling from some QB performances around the NFL.
Baker Mayfield, QB, Cleveland Browns
It’s been an up and down year for Mayfield and the outlook for the most part good. The narrative around the Browns and Mayfield is after every win it seems the sky is falling and the team is plummeting. That’s simply just not the case, they continue to play well and beat good teams.
After a shaky start on Sunday, Mayfield and Browns fought back from a deficit and finished a great game in DRAMATIC fashion. Here is a tweet from Sunday that shows just how great Mayfield was after a poor start.
At one point Mayfield completed 21 straight passes, he also lead the Browns on a game-winning drive in which he threw a dime to WR Donavon Peoples-Jones. Here’s a look at the game-winning play.
Although the Bengals aren’t viewed as a great team and do have only 1 win they are a good team. Better than what the record states, they also have a decent defense which is heavily underrated. It was an impressive win for the Browns, I’m not sold on Mayfield yet. Star WR Odell Beckham Jr is now out for the season with an ACL tear. Mayfield will have to prove that he’s good enough to lead the team with now two rookies Harrison Bryant and Donovan Peoples-Jones as primary weapons.
I’m cautiously buying Mayfield because I believe in his talent and situation. With Chubb coming back soon they could ease the pressure off Mayfield and open up the passing game.
Justin Herbert, QB, Los Angeles Chargers
My goodness, this kid is SPECIAL. After a dominant performance on Sunday in which he threw for 400+ yards and 4 touchdowns, Hebert secured his first career NFL victory.
I love what this kid brings to not only the Chargers in real life but in fantasy as well. He scored a whopping 37 points this week and since becoming a full-time starter he’s yet to score less than 15 fantasy points.
Herbert has a cannon for an arm, his deep ball throwing paired with his great short game accuracy has been a nightmare for opposing defenses. Here is a clip of a big throw from Herbert last week.
Herbert’s ability to stretch the field is just icecream for fantasy owners. He’s completing the most deep-ball touchdowns of 20+ yards or more which means big plays and points for fantasy owners.
With weapons coming back like Austin Ekeler in the coming weeks I’m buying Herbert’s talent, the problem with buying him is the price. He’s clearly a QB1 in fantasy as he’s averaging over 24 points per game. His price might be too high to buy, if you have Herbert and another QB consider selling one. You can get top dollar for Herbert to help your team.
Selling Herbert or holding Herbert
Josh Allen, QB, Buffalo Bills
It’s been a scary few weeks for Allen and the Bills. After poor play again from Allen, the Bills escaped barely by the leg of their young kicker. It hasn’t been great in the past few weeks from Allen in fantasy and real life. Barely beating the Jets and scoring no touchdowns is a disaster. Here are Allen’s fantasy numbers from the last 3 weeks.
- 15.8 Fantasy points
- 14.2 Fantasy Points
- 16.1 Fantasy Points
Very bland and extremely average from a guy who was the QB1-3 for the first few weeks of the season. Here is a look at Allen’s combined stats in his last three starts.
692 Passing Yards / 230.7 per game / 4 Touchdowns / 0 Rushing Touchdowns
Not great, he’s struggling on the ground and through the air. The lack of touchdowns is concerning as well considering the last three opponents are as listed: @ Titans, vs Chiefs, @ Jets. Not a very daunting task considering ⅔ of the defenses are below average and rank in the bottom third of the league in passing defense.
I’m cautiously buying Allen however. He still runs a great amount and his big arm talent means big plays for fantasy. Here’s how Allen stacks up against the league in rushing attempts at QB.
Allen had a better game than it seems. His lack of touchdowns was mitigated by his 300-yard performance. There’s room for optimism from Sunday’s game as the Bills got called for a penalty that was ticky tacky. Here’s a look at that which would’ve propelled Allen to near 20+ fantasy points.
Buy low on Josh Allen now with a good schedule and hope the touchdown regression comes back the other way.