By: Kyle Williams (Twitter: @betonthegame)
Halloween is upon us and so is another spooky week in the NFL. Players like Tyler Boyd, Davante Adams, and Tyler Lockett were impressive last week. They won a lot of people “A lot of money”. Frankly, if you didn’t own any of them, well you didn’t cash. The DFS slate was crazy, even in 50/50s you needed an unprecedented 190+ points on Draftkings. In last week’s article, I gave you several players that killed value and helped you build winning lineups. Let’s dive in and make you some more cash this weekend.
Derek Carr – @ CLE [19th] – $5,500
My favorite value play arguably on the entire slate, it’s truly remarkable how cheap Carr is. For a guy who has averaged 21 points per game so far on the season to be at $5,500 is disrespectful. At the current value compared to salary and average score he’s in the market to hit at least 3.5x value.
Carr’s matchup is extremely favorable this Sunday, squaring up against a Cleveland defense whos been shredded on the season so far. In fact, according to Fantasy Pro’s the Browns are giving up 22.3 fantasy points per game which is the 3rd most per game. They give 3.7 more points per game to opposing QBs than average which is a 16.7% matchup advantage.
Here’s a look at some key numbers the Browns have given up to opposing quarterbacks on the season.
- Week 7: Joe Burrow – 34.6 points
- Week 4: Dak Prescott – 38.3 points
- Week 1: Lamar Jackson – 27.5 points
The matchup is awesome. Carr is in a prime position especially with the whole offensive unit back in action this week. Even last week with near no practice for the offensive line and no Trent Brown on Sunday, Carr still managed to 20.26 fantasy points against the elite Buccaneers defense.
Jimmy Garoppolo – @ SEA [32nd] – $5,400
We talk about matchups often, in this case, there is truly not a better matchup than what Jimmy G has. The 49ers go up against an opposing Seahawks defense who will again be without star safety Jamal Adams. Even with Adams, the Seahawks are allowing the most fantasy points per game at 27.8 per game. That number tops at 6.6 points per game above league average which is a 23.8% matchup advantage.
The Seahawks defense is so lackluster that the least amount of points they’ve given up in fantasy so far on the season is 15.2 to Kirk Cousins in week 5.
The numbers for Garoppolo are a bit misleading on the season. He’s only averaging 13.3 per game but he got hurt in one of those games and last week they laid it down on the Patriots. In that game, the 49ers didn’t throw much and didn’t need to which hurt Garappolo big time. With adjusted numbers, Garoppolo is more of a 16 point per game scorer.
Playing Garappolo is a smash play, he’s the 2nd cheapest starter on the slate. He’s easily in the range to hit 3x value.
Honarable mention: Joe Burrow – vs TEN [21st] – $6,200
Giovani Bernard – vs TEN [19th] – $5,800
Back to the Bernard well once again this week. Mixon has been ruled out and the price for a starting runningback with this volume is a clear value play. Last week I wrote about Bernard and he scored 20.6 fantasy points. Draftkings did decide to jump his salary up by $1,300 which is a big jump but honestly, still might not be enough.
The matchup and workload for Bernard this week is once again a big plus. He goes up against the Titans who are allowing 20.1 points per game to RBs. That is 2.9 above average giving Bernard a 14.2% advantage in the matchup. The statistics show that the Titans are giving up over 50 rushing yards and a near touchdown per game to runningbacks. To go along with that they also average close to 2+ receptions and another 20+ yards through the air. Thats enough for a baseline of 15+ points.
Bernard wont be the sexiest play but he will be extremely cheap and filled with value.
Myles Gaskin – vs LAR [22nd] – $5,200
Someone care to explain why Draftkkings likes listing starting RBs at sub 6k prices? With all the reasons of Bernard they pretty much stick with Gaskin as well, except I like him a bit more than Bernard.
Gaskin’s workload alone should put him in a 6.3k range on this site, so to see him at 5.2k is unfathomable. He’s averaging 16 carries per game over his last 4 games. To top that on the season he’s averaging close to 5 receptions per game as well. Those two things mean fantasy points big time. The workload over the last few weeks is really propelling Gaskin in my mind. Especially with him scoring his first touchdown and the Dolphins benching co-starter Jordan Howard.
There are so many signs that make me love Gaskin. Hes averaging close to 14.2 points per game so far this season. Thats good at his current salary to hit 2.7x on this slate, and the goal is above 2.5x. Gaskins floor paired with a 20 point ceiling makes him an almost autoplay. The matchup is a bit tough but I believe in Gaskins ability to get it done. Even though the Rams havent been giving up huge points to runningbacks this season they are steady giving up in the 12 range even to bad runningbacks like David Montgomery. Im auto playing Gaskin at this price tag this weekend.
Honarable mentions: J.K. Dobbins – vs PIT [3rd] – $4,600
La’Mical Perine – @ KC [10th] – $4,300
Brandon Aiyuk – @ SEA [32nd] – $5,800
Man oh man is Aiyuk in a juicy spot. Playing the worst passing defense that’s banged up and now he’s the number 1 WR on his own team. With Deebo Samuel out a few weeks, things are looking majorly up for Aiyuk. Here’s a tweet from a good pal of mine that sums up the play and what to expect this weekend.
It’s a dream matchup and with Aiyuk’s clear uptick in points, playing time, and targets he should be in for a big one this weekend. I believe he has a legitimate 20 point upside with a clear 11 point floor.
Cole Beasley – vs NE [21st] – $5,300
Hear me out this play isn’t sexy but it’s stable. And in cash games that’s all we can ask for, right? He’s averaging 15 points per game so far this season and has steadily been at or near 12 points for a floor.
The matchup looks a bit tough for the Patriots but Beasley wont be going up against the top corner Gilmore. Likely WR Stefon Diggs will draw that assignment. Here are the players so far on the season that Beasley has outscored in PPR formats.
Nothing is really sexy about Beasley hes just a great budget beast player that is cheap and stable. Look to fit him in around your studs like D. Adams.
Honarable mentions: Corey Davis – @ CIN [18th] – $5,100
A.J. Green – vs TEN [28th] – $4,500
Jonnu Smith – @ CIN [32nd] – $4,100
Two bad weeks and now everyone including Draftkings is off of Jonnu Smith. Must I remind everyone Jonnu got hurt in one of those games? Must I also remind people that Jonnu leads the team in targets as well? And let’s not forget who comes to town this weekend? That’s right, the dreadful Bengals, the leagues worst against the tight end.
If the Bengals are giving up above 20 points to a rookie tight end, what do you think an elite tight end like Smith will do? His matchup is phenomenal this weekend, I like Smith to get back on track versus a defense that just traded one of its premier defensive players earlier in the week.
Honarable mentions: Harrison Bryant -vs LV [17th] – $3,200
Trey Burton – @ DET [2nd] – $3,500