By: Emerson Beery

The tight end landscape has become the most talented bare, and hardest position to predict in fantasy. Every year there are talented tight ends who get drafted with high expectations and struggle to produce (looking at you Evan Engram). Due to this, it has become a popular strategy to fade the position if you don’t get one of the top guys like Travis Kelce or George Kittle. This is a strategy I approve of after spending years over drafting guys like Engram, Hunter Henry, and Austin Hooper. In this article, I will examine some tight-end prospects going late in drafts that have high upside in 2022 and beyond. None of these players are likely to be league winners, but at a position this thin they have starting potential. 

Robert Tonyan

Tonyan is coming off a disappointing 2021 campaign in which he struggled to produce on the field before ultimately tearing his ACL in week 8. Through these 8 games, Tonyan mustered only 18 catches for 204 yards. His 29 targets were actually on pace for almost exactly the same amount he received in his breakout  2020 season. The problem was he couldn’t replicate his 11 touchdown receptions, which made up the bulk of his fantasy points. As a result, Tonyan’s dynasty value dropped dramatically since last season, as he can be found as a low TE2 according to most outlets. I believe he has a chance to outproduce this ranking in 2022 as one of Rodger’s most trusted offensive weapons. 

In 2020, Tonyan managed to catch a touchdown on a ridiculous 18.6% of his targets. This wasn’t sustainable and his production dropped last year. As a result, no receiver outside of Davante Adams was able to maintain consistent fantasy value. Adams is now gone, and the Packers are left with Tonyan, Allen Lazard, Randall Cobb, and Amari Rodgers as their best-receiving weapons. The Packers will be a candidate to acquire receivers this off-season, however, there will be plenty of targets to go around in this now wide-open offense. Rodgers has had a habit in his career of forcing the ball to receivers that he trusts. Since 2012 the only wide receivers to surpass 900 yards are Randall Cobb, Jordy Nelson, and Adams. Rodgers knows who his elite playmakers are, and he tries hard to run the offense through them, even to a fault sometimes. 

That won’t be the case this season, as there is no receiver on the team besides Cobb who has had over 55 receptions or 600 yards in a season. Cobb himself is turning 32 this Summer and isn’t capable of carrying a heavy workload at this stage of his career. Rodgers will be looking for someone in the offense who he’s had success within the past. Tonyan is an obvious candidate to take a major step forward as someone who’s shown chemistry with Rodgers in the past. In 2020, Rodgers had a 148.3 passer rating when targeting Tonyan, who also had one of the best target separation grades in the league. 

Coming off a season-ending injury, Tonyan is reportedly ahead of schedule in his rehab. The Packers hinted at having him back early on in the season, but we’re noncommittal which is typical at this stage. With how fast players are coming back from injuries nowadays, it wouldn’t surprise me to see Tonyan on the field in week 1. He will likely be limited at least to start the year, but is ranked as a borderline top 25 TE, he is basically free in startups. This is a player who could have value deeper into the season as Rodger’s go-to red zone target. At a position that is touchdown or bust for the most part outside the top 6 players, Tonyan provides more upside than some of the tight ends drafted around him. He’ll be a player that I’ll be consistently targeting later in my drafts this Summer. 

Brevin Jordan

Jordan is another tight end who’s being ranked as a lower TE2 who could have a major role going into 2022. The Texans selected him in the 5th round of last year’s draft from the University of Miami.  He was a player who was known to play all over the field and was a dangerous weapon with the ball in his hands. His accolades include earning second-team All-ACC twice, first-team All- ACC once, and being a 2020 Mackey Award finalist. Jordan went to a great spot in Houston, which didn’t have any high-level tight ends to compete with for playing time. After starting off on the inactive list for the first seven games, he caught 20 passes for 178 yards and 3 touchdowns to finish his campaign. Jordan managed to score double-digit fantasy points in three of those outings and was Houston’s most effective fantasy tight end. Although not exciting numbers, the offense as a whole struggled. No one outside of Brandin Cooks was able to maintain fantasy relevance. 

In 2022, Brevin Jordan has the chance to grow into a more full-time role with Houston and could become a focal point of the offense. Jordan Akins is gone, and Pharaoh Brown is hardly inspiring competition. Furthermore, Brandin Cooks might not be on the team in 2022 as he is rumored to be on the trading block. With Nico Collins and Chris Conley as the leading receivers behind him, the offense is completely devoid of talent. The Texans have holes across their entire roster as well and are unlikely to add significant competition at tight end. With David Mills showing competent quarterback ability, Jordan has the opportunity for a high volume of targets. I’ve seen Jordan go a bit early for me in some drafts this off-season, as he’s not a top 15 guy for me. However. in the TE20s we’re drafting long shots anyway, and Jordan has as good a shot as any in this range to succeed. Tight ends tend to take a year or two to develop, so taking a shot on a young and talented one late in drafts could pay dividends down the road. At a talent bare position, any player who is projected to be a key part of the offense has value. 

Hayden Hurst

For my last tight-end sleeper, I’m going deep down the ranks to a rarely talked about, but talented player. Hayden Hurst is finally going to have an opportunity to lead a depth chart after playing behind Mark Andrews and Kyle Pitts over the last few years. Hurst is a former first-round pick in the 2018 draft, who recently signed a 1 year/$3.5 million contract with the Cincinnati Bengals. He will be looking to bounce back with a new franchise after a disappointing start to his career in Baltimore and Atlanta. Despite being drafted ahead of Mark Andrews, he was overtaken quickly by the pro bowl tight end and was never given the opportunity to flourish with the Ravens. After being acquired by Atlanta in 2020, Hurst had a mini breakout going for 571 yards and 6 touchdowns. This was good for TE9 in PPR leagues. Unfortunately for Hurst, the Falcons added Kyle Pitts in last year’s draft leaving him once again in a secondary role. His playing time dwindled as the season went on, and there was little room for him on the Falcons rebuilding roster. 

Fast forward to 2022 and Hurst projects to be the starting tight end for one of the best offenses in the league. Hurst is still a former first-round pick who came into the league as a fierce competitor with great hands. Gaining separation from defenders and blocking have been a problem in the NFL. However, he did show he has low TE1 upside in his one starting season with the Falcons in 2020. Burrow is an elite NFL quarterback who has shown he can support multiple fantasy options. With so much attention being devoted to Jamar Chase, Tee Higgins, and Tyler Boyd, Hurst will likely have opportunities to feast underneath. A high-powered offense like this also will feature plenty of red zone opportunities, which are essential to most tight ends fantasy production. 

C.J Uzomah had developed into a solid player for the Bengals, but he’s far from an elite tight-end talent. Hayden Hurst has the upside to at least hold a similar role in this offense as a mid-tier TE2. Currently being ranked as a borderline top 30 TE in most dynasty rankings, Hurst likely won’t cost you anything to acquire this off-season. While not likely a weekly starter, Hurst could be a great bye week filler, or a low-end flex option when injuries begin to set in. The upside is always there for a tight end in an elite offense. I expect Hurst to rise in rankings over the Summer as media coverage of his work with Burrow emerges. 

The post 3 dynasty tight end sleepers right now appeared first on Pro Football Mania.

By: Emerson Beery

Fantasy football managers have always had a love, hate relationship with their running backs. On one hand, they can absolutely be the most important part of your championship team, but on the other hand, it is the most volatile and injury-prone position available.

Fantasy owners are in a constant scramble to fill in for bye weeks, and injuries which can be the difference in making the playoffs or not in your league. In this article, I will highlight sleepers, outside of the consensus top 30 running backs drafted, who could provide upside going into the 2022 campaign. These are great running backs to draft to back up your top-tier starters, or if you’re taking a zero RB approach and looking for some later-round players with upside.

James Robinson

James Robinson has been one of the more amazing stories in the NFL and fantasy over the last couple of seasons. He went from UDFA to fantasy stud in 2020. He accounted for over 1400 all-purpose yards, and 10 touchdowns on his way to an RB7 finish. After creating high expectations, his 2021 season did not go as expected, however. Robinson was a part of the Urban Meyer disaster, was inexplicably benched multiple times throughout the year, and ultimately tore his Achilles in Week 16 versus the New York Jets.

This was not what fantasy managers foresaw after Travis Etienne went out for the season with a Lisfranc injury over the Summer. After a dip in value as a result of Etienne being drafted, James Robinson vaulted back up fantasy managers rankings after the injury news.

Ultimately, after a hot start to the season, however, and four straight RB1 finishes from Weeks 3-6, Robinson struggled with consistency. This was due to minor injuries, and landing in Urban Meyer’s doghouse midway through the year. His snap percentage only reached over 65% one time week eight onward. He eventually landed on IR with his torn Achilles. Why am I buying at his current dynasty value? I’m willing to throw away the whole last year for the Jaguars as Urban Meyer was one of the worst coaches in NFL history. Each report highlighted a coach that was completely out of his depth and one that was toxic to the locker room. Every Jaguars player deserves a pass for last year, as they couldn’t have been put in a worse position to succeed.

James Robinson’s ADP is also low because of the risk his Achilles tear poses to his 2022 season and the assumption that Etienne will be the lead back. Cam Akers, George Pickens, and other athletes have amazed us with their quick return to the field in recent years. I believe this is becoming more the norm than an anomaly, and I Expect to see James Robinson on the field early in the 2022 season. When he does return, he will still at worst be a heavily involved second RB like Kareem Hunt. We have yet to see Etienne in NFL action though, and there is still a path toward becoming a starter again for the Jaguars. His ADP as a mid-tier RB3 according to most sites is very cheap for a running back of his caliber.

James Conner

It’s hard to be called a sleeper when you just had a top 5 fantasy season for a running back. However, Conner is just that in dynasty leagues with an ADP ranging between RB30-39 according to most sites. I expect this to rise as most of the ADP data has not been updated since his re-signed with the Cardinals. Still, his dynasty value will be hampered by his age (26), and his injury history. Thus creating a buy point for managers despite his breakout season with the Cardinals. Conner was the featured RedZone back throughout the year, amassing 18 total touchdowns. He also showed his receiving ability averaging 4.8 receptions for 53.8 yards in weeks that Chase Edmonds missed due to injury. With Edmonds no longer in the picture, Conner figures to be the bell cow of a high-powered Arizona offense.

When drafting RBs early I look at attributes like age, injury history, and overall talent. Running backs that hit on all these marks are taken ate a premium, and rightfully so as so few meet this criterion. Where Conner is being drafted every running back has significant flaws due to one thing or another. Conner is slightly older and has missed 14 games over the last four seasons due to injury. All these concerns are baked into his cost though as a middling RB3. If I’m a competing dynasty team in 2022, I’m exploring buying Conner at his current cost, particularly from young rebuilding teams that view him as a declining asset. His price is only likely to go up over the Summer so buy now if you have the opportunity.

Chris Carson

Chris Carson has been amazing since taking over the lead Running Back duties for the Seahawks back in 2018. He has compiled three straight top 20 finishes for a back. Additionally, he has averaged over 4.4 yards per carry each of the last 4 years and is still just 27 years old. Carson’s inability to stay on the field however has led to a major dip in his dynasty ranking. Carson finds himself ranked as an RB4 according to most experts, ranked behind the likes of Kahlil Herbert, Chuba Hubbard, and fellow teammate Rashad Penny. Chris Carson’s fantasy ranking suggests that people believe he is going to retire, or that he is the clear #2 back to Rashad Penny. I don’t believe either to be the case and expect Carson to be a large part of this offense.

First, off-season reports suggest that Carson is rehabbing nicely and that he should be back for Summer workouts. This is great news as many feared a serious neck injury was going to put his career in jeopardy. Addressing the second concern, I believe that the fantasy community is coming under a little recency bias due to Penny’s late-season fantasy surge. He was the RB1 over the course of the final five weeks of the season and was the reason many fantasy owners won their championship. Penny scored nearly half of his career fantasy points in the final five weeks of the season. This is mainly due to the fact that Penny has missed 26 games in the last three seasons. Even when healthy, Penny has operated as the clear second back behind Carson. Penny is often injured and has been inconsistent his first four seasons in the NFL. This will provide Carson plenty of opportunities to overtake Penny in Seattle’s backfield. At RB44, Carson is basically free and is far too cheap for a potential starting Running back.

The post 3 RB sleepers in Dynasty appeared first on Pro Football Mania.

By: Emerson Beery

Carson Wentz was traded to the Washington Commanders this past week, where he will look to rebound with his third franchise in as many seasons. He’s coming off a year in which he threw for 3,563 yards, 27 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions. Wentz not only managed to cut his interceptions by more than half, 15-7 but also to improve his QBR to the top 10 in the league.  After a slow start to the season, the Indianapolis Colts managed to go 9-3 in a 12 game stretch prior to the final 2 games of the season. 

Securing just one win in those two games would have given the Colts a playoff berth. However, unfortunately for the Colts, they blew a 4th quarter lead against the Raiders, followed by a total collapse against the Jacksonville Jaguars. Carson Wentz himself managed just 185 yards passing, a touchdown, and two costly turnovers as the Colts were blown out 26-11. This appeared to be the final straw for the Colts, who decided to move on after just one season from the former MVP candidate. In this article I will give reasons why you should be optimistic about Carson Wentz, why you should be hesitant, and a final outlook for his 2022 season and dynasty value. 

Carson Wentz: The Good

Wentz was drafted with the #2 overall pick in the 2016 draft by the Philadelphia Eagles. He was a highly regarded prospect who was thought to have all the physical tools, be accurate, and have dual-threat upside. His only widely perceived knocks were the lack of completion he faced in college, and his tendency to be careless with football. Wentz has flashed this potential in the NFL being highly accurate at times while extending plays with his legs. This culminated in 2017, where prior to his late-season injury, was the odds on favorite to win the MVP. Unfortunately, since the injury, Wentz simply has not performed anywhere close to this level since. 

Despite being let go by his 2nd team this off-season, it wasn’t all bad for Wentz. He was able to cut down on his interceptions and posted an above-average QBR of 54.7. Prior to the Raider game in Week 17, the Carson Wentz signing was viewed by many as a success. Wentz wasn’t being asked to carry the team as the Colts focused on getting the football to Jonathan Taylor. He minimized his turnovers and was able to make some timely throws when given the opportunity. 

A game manager who has the capability of making the occasional big play is likely the best role for Carson Wentz moving forward with the Washington Commanders. He has an alpha WR in Terry Mclaurin, as well as an RB in Antonio Gibson capable of carrying a heavy workload. The Commanders will likely look to add an additional offensive weapon early in the draft to help Wentz’s transition. Additionally, Curtis Samuel and Logan Thomas provide solid secondary options as they will look to be a more prolific offense in the 2022 season.

Carson Wentz: The Bad

Carson Wentz improved in the 2021 season, but that was just from an absolutely disastrous 2020 season. He still had 15 turnovers, and many of those came in absolutely critical moments of the game. He was 18th in passing yards, 16th in passing attempts, and 20th in yards per attempt. He has been sacked 82 times the past 2 seasons, good for second in the league behind Joe Burrow. He tries to overextend plays far too often rather than simply throw the ball away. This often leads to either a sack or a turnover, which eventually cost the Colts a playoff appearance. 

He simply was average in 2021, not being asked to do a lot behind the league’s best running back. At this stage of his career Wentz is not a prolific passer, and on his best day, is an effective game manager. The offense of the Washington Commanders certainly isn’t a major upgrade to the Indianapolis Colts offense. Mclaurin is a better receiver than Michael Pittman, but Antonio Gibson is nowhere near Jonathan Taylor in terms of skill. He simply won’t be able to hand it off to Antonio Gibson 25 times a game and expect similar results. When Wentz is asked to do more, he makes more mistakes. 

Most alarming are the reports out of The Athletic shedding some light on Wentz’s departure from the Colts. These reports suggest that Wentz wasn’t particularly liked by the coaching staff or his fellow players. He resisted “hard” coaching from the staff, which coupled with his turnover-prone style of play, wore the patience of the Indianapolis Colts management. These are nearly identical findings to the reports that surfaced from the Philadelphia Eagles prior to Wentz’s departure. He was also considered to be hard to coach and a poor teammate. Oftentimes players don’t mesh well with a particular locker room, but these reports from two different franchises are damning. 

The Verdict

Carson Wentz is playing with his 3rd franchise in three seasons. The Eagles and Colts invested heavily in Wentz, they had every reason to make it work, but they let him go anyway. Wentz is attractive on the market because sometimes he makes plays that simply only the best QBs in the league can make. When he is on the open field he can get upfield quickly for rushing yards which we love as fantasy managers. Sadly, these plays are too few and far between, and what you get is a highly erratic style of play. Wentz is a low-end QB2 for fantasy purposes and an average NFL QB. He has more arm talent than Taylor Heineke, which should slightly boost the value of Terry Mclaurin. 

Wentz’s play would suggest he could be a journeyman QB, changing teams every couple of seasons, as there aren’t likely to be 32 better NFL quarterbacks. However,  with a game manager QB, you expect them to be leaders in the locker room and be able to rise to the occasion in clutch situations. Carson Wentz on the other hand has shown consistently to be a locker room problem and makes his biggest mistakes in the biggest moments. In fantasy leagues, Wentz can be ignored in 1QB formats as he doesn’t possess enough upside to start other than in an emergency. In Superflex leagues, he can be treated as a low-end Superflex, who’s likely in his final year or two as a starting quarterback. 

The post What is the dynasty outlook of Carson Wentz? appeared first on Pro Football Mania.