By: Eli Grabanski

In fantasy football, some of the most exciting players to draft are the younger players that could develop into the next big star. They are usually a rookie, a sophomore, or a junior in the NFL that was a high draft pick in their draft class and maybe showed some flashes of greatness in their previous season. But while we like to project nearly every young player for growth, sometimes we get carried away and hype them up to a point where they are no longer a good value. This article will dive into three second year players whose hype trains this offseason have taken them to a draft spot where it will be difficult to live up to the hype.

Writer’s Note: Please keep in mind that these are players I don’t like at their current ADP, not players I don’t like in general. If they slip a bit from their current ADP/rank, they could still be a solid investment.

#1 Cam Akers (RB, Los Angeles Rams)

FantasyPros ECR: RB10 in standard, RB11 in 0.5 PPR, RB12 in PPR

Cam Akers is getting drafted at his ceiling, especially in PPR leagues. For starters, he was really only fantasy relevant from week 12 on, as he finished as RB42 in standard, RB43 in 0.5 PPR, and RB45 in PPR in total points last year according to Fantasy Pros. In addition, people seem to be overrating how good he was between weeks 12-17 of the regular season when he took over the lead role, as he was RB15 in standard, RB17 in 0.5PPR, and RB18 in PPR.

Secondly, fantasy players seem to be underrating how many carries Darrell Henderson may see because they see Cam Akers as ‘Todd Gurley 2.0’. According to Pro Football Reference, Darrell Henderson had the most rushing broken tackles on the team last year with 8 (138 carries) while Cam Akers had 6 (145 carries), and Malcolm Brown had 7 (101 carries). In addition, Henderson posted a 80.4 PFF grade last year which is above-average. This was higher the fellow RB Cam Akers (68.4 PFF grade) and his talent should allow him to maintain some kind of role in the Rams offense in 2021. It’s not as close to a guarantee that Akers is going to be the bell-cow on the ground as the ADP would suggest and that makes it a little more dangerous to invest in Akers.

Thirdly, Cam Akers has yet to show any real pass-catching upside. In 13 games last year, Cam Akers had just 11 receptions on 14 targets for 123 receiving yards and a receiving touchdown. He also posted a very high drop rate of 7.1% and had just 2.5% of his team’s targets, both of which were below average for a running back. These questions about his pass-catching ability and usage relative to other top RBs makes it a lot more difficult to invest in him in PPR leagues.

#2 J.K. Dobbins (RB, Baltimore Ravens)

FantasyPros ECR: RB15 in standard, RB16 in 0.5 PPR, RB18 in PPR

J.K. Dobbins is a talented runner which is why many are tempted to draft him where he’s going right now, but he’s got some other flaws in his fantasy profile that could make him a bad investment – particularly in PPR leagues. For starters, Dobbins has some solid competition for carries on the ground as Gus Edwards carried the ball 144 times last year and was fairly efficient with his carries averaging 5.0 YPC. In addition, the Ravens have the best running quarterback in the league in Lamar Jackson, who took 159 carries for 1005 rushing yards and 7 rushing touchdowns a year ago. Both of those guys will not just disappear and will warrant their fair share of carries.

Besides competition for carries on the ground, J.K. Dobbins also has major concerns with his receiving workload. Historically, Ravens offensive coordinator Greg Roman has barely featured his running backs in the passing game. Over the course of his 114 game career as an offensive coordinator, Greg Roman has given his tailbacks just 3.35 targets per game, the lowest mark among active NFL play-callers.

Considering the Ravens gave their halfbacks just 50 targets last year, it’s unlikely this changes in 2021 much. With the overall RB receiving pie in Baltimore being much smaller than every other offense in the NFL, it makes it more difficult for Dobbins to be a success in PPR leagues.

And besides the overall receiving workload being small, J.K. Dobbins posted a drop rate of 16.7% last year, one of the worst marks in the NFL among running backs. There is little to no receiving upside in J.K. Dobbins compared to other backs going in his draft range, which puts a ton of pressure on him to produce on the ground. Because of this, Dobbins may have a difficult time performing up to his ADP in 2021.

#3 Joe Burrow (QB, Cincinnati Bengals)

FantasyPros ECR: QB13

Joe Burrow is a guy that I only feel is slightly (a couple of spots) overvalued, but we will nonetheless include him on this list. The first major concern is that he is coming off of a major knee injury (ACL & LCL tear) which means that he may need some time to feel comfortable behind center. The second concern for Burrow is that he struggled a bit throwing the deep ball last year and went “7/34 on passes that have traveled at least 20 yards beyond the line of scrimmage” through the first eight games of the season last year. If he can’t hit the deep ball, it will be more difficult for Burrow to put up great passing numbers unless he sees ridiculous passing volume. The third concern for Burrow it that he completed just 37.3% of his passes when facing pressure in the pocket, which was the second-lowest mark in the NFL. Considering he faced pressure on 32.3% of his dropbacks last year and the offensive line is projected to be mediocre at best, this is a major concern. Combine these three factors with only mediocre rushing ability and it seems like Burrow may be a tad overvalued for the 2021 season.

Follow Eli Grabanski on Twitter: @3li_handles

The post Fantasy Fallout: The 3 Most Overrated Second Year Players appeared first on Pro Football Mania.

By: Eli Grabanski

The MVP race is one of the most fun to watch in sports, as it leads to a lot of great debates throughout the season. In the 2018 NFL season, it was Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes. In 2019, it was Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson. Last year, Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers took home the crown. This article will look at the most likely player to win MVP at each of the key offensive skill positions – QB, RB, WR, and TE. Let’s dive in.

QB: Patrick Mahomes

The MVP of the NFL is almost always a quarterback. It makes sense since they are the leaders of the team and have the largest impact on each game. To be in the MVP conversation, a quarterback needs to put up efficient passing numbers and be on a winning team.

This is by far the toughest choice to pick a favorite of the skill positions since there are quite a few great options, but for the purposes of this article, we’ll go with the safest pick and say Patrick Mahomes. Mahomes has had an incredible start to his career, completing 66% of his passes for 14152 passing yards (307.7 per game) and 114 touchdown passes (2.48 per game) in his first 46 starts. In addition, his team has consistently won since he’s been the starter, with the team going 38-8 in the regular season with him as their quarterback. He’s got a great supporting cast and coaching staff that make it easier for him to put up impressive numbers, and he’s also far enough removed from his previous MVP award (2018) for any semblance of ‘MVP voter fatigue’ to fade away. For all of these reasons, Mahomes should be the favorite to win the MVP award in 2021.

Other Notable Candidates: Lamar Jackson, Justin Herbert, Kyler Murray, Matthew Stafford, Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson, Matt Ryan, Dak Prescott, Jalen Hurts, Josh Allen, Baker Mayfield, and Ryan Tannehill

RB: Nick Chubb

Besides the quarterback position, the running back position has the next best shot at winning the prestigious NFL MVP award. To be the MVP as a running back, you usually have to put up 2000+ yards from scrimmage, play for a winning team, and have a strong narrative as to why you should win.

Based on these criteria, Nick Chubb seems like a phenomenal candidate to win the award. The Browns are slated to be one of the top contenders in the AFC after finishing 11-5 a year ago. The Browns are also a run-heavy team, with the team running the ball 495 times in 2020. Head coach Kevin Stefanski and offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt are committed to running the ball, and running backs coach Stump Mitchell and offensive line coach Bill Callahan are among the best position coaches in the league. The Browns also have the #1 ranked offensive line according to PFF which should help open up running lanes for Nick Chubb to put up insane rushing numbers. All these situational factors, plus Nick Chubb’s elite ability to generate yards after contact and you have all the makings for a monster numbers year. Add in the narrative of the lowly Browns finally becoming a contender and you have the makings of a potential MVP season for Nick Chubb.

Other Notable Candidates: Derrick Henry, Austin Ekeler, Saquon Barkley, Alvin Kamara, Christian McCaffrey, Jonathan Taylor, Ezekiel Elliott, David Montgomery, Najee Harris, and Dalvin Cook

WR: Michael Thomas

For a wide receiver to win MVP, they need to be capable of putting up big numbers, play with multiple different quarterbacks (so the QB doesn’t take the award instead), and play on a winning team.

Of all the major wide receiver candidates for the MVP award, Michael Thomas probably has the best shot at this combination. The New Orleans Saints have a QB controversy going into the 2021 season, with Jameis Winston and Taysom Hill fighting for the starting job. There’s a good chance that both make some starts at some point during the 2021 season. The Saints have been one of the best teams in the NFL in recent years and should be in the playoff mix once again. Lastly, Michael Thomas has shown the capability to put up massive receiving numbers in the past, including an insane 2019 season where he had 149 receptions on 185 targets for 1725 receiving yards and nine receiving touchdowns. He is absolutely capable of doing it again now that he’s healthy.

Other Notable Candidates: Tyreek Hill, Stefon Diggs, Calvin Ridley, Davante Adams, Keenan Allen, A.J. Brown, Julio Jones, Allen Robinson, Justin Jefferson, Mike Evans, DeAndre Hopkins, and D.K. Metcalf

TE: George Kittle

Realistically, a tight end doesn’t really have a shot for the MVP award. But just for fun, if a tight end were to win MVP in 2021, which would it be? Travis Kelce? Darren Waller? Kyle Pitts?

The tight end with the best shot to semi-realistically win MVP in 2021 would be George Kittle. Travis Kelce is capable of putting up huge numbers, but in any season where he’s an MVP candidate his quarterback, Patrick Mahomes likely is as well. Darren Waller is also capable of putting up big numbers, but there are concerns about his team winning enough games to be MVP.

Now look at George Kittle. Kittle is capable of putting up huge numbers like Kelce and Waller. His team is projected to make the playoffs. There’s a good chance that the 49ers play two different quarterbacks during the 2021 season considering they drafted Trey Lance 3rd overall in the 2021 NFL Draft and they still have Jimmy Garoppolo on the roster – which means that the quarterback likely wouldn’t have the numbers to steal the award away from Kittle.

Other Notable Candidates: Darren Waller and Travis Kelce

The post Early MVP favorites from each skill position appeared first on Pro Football Mania.

By: Eli Grabanski

Piecing together a quality NFL team is difficult. To win a championship, you generally need quality players, quality management, and quality coaching.

Some popular candidates the last couple of years that have gotten buzz for head coaching jobs but not been hired are…

• Eric Bieniemy – Offensive Coordinator, Kansas City Chiefs
• Brian Daboll – Offensive Coordinator, Buffalo Bills
• Joe Brady – Offensive Coordinator, Carolina Panthers
• Kellen Moore – Offensive Coordinator, Dallas Cowboys
• Nathaniel Hackett – Offensive Coordinator, Green Bay Packers
• Greg Roman – Offensive Coordinator, Baltimore Ravens
• Matt Eberflus – Defensive Coordinator, Indianapolis Colts
• Todd Bowles – Defensive Coordinator, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
• Don Martindale – Defensive Coordinator, Baltimore Ravens
• Leslie Frazier – Defensive Coordinator, Buffalo Bills

But while most of the top candidates are generally offensive or defensive coordinators, this isn’t always the case. Just this past year, Dan Campbell was hired to be the Detroit Lions head coach after serving as the New Orleans Saints assistant head coach/tight ends coach from 2016-2020, and David Culley was hired to be the Houston Texans head coach despite spending most of his career as a wide receivers coach. Teams are looking to find their franchise’s head coach early on and taking more shots on guys with less experience. This article will dive into five current NFL coaches who aren’t currently being talked about as NFL head coaching candidates but easily could find themselves in a position for a head coaching job within the next couple of years.

Harold Goodwin (Assistant Head Coach/Run Game Coordinator, Tampa Bay Buccaneers)

There has been a lot of talk about Buccaneers’ coordinators Todd Bowles and Byron Leftwich building resumés that make them strong head-coaching candidates in the future, but the Buccaneers also have a third coach who should be considered for head coaching positions: assistant head coach Harold Goodwin. Goodwin has the traditional experience of being a coordinator prior to applying for head coaching jobs, spending time as the offensive coordinator of the Arizona Cardinals from 2013 to 2017. During the time that Goodwin was the offensive coordinator of the team, the Cardinals had one of the most dangerous offenses in the league.

Having previous success as an offensive coordinator in itself doesn’t indicate that someone is a good fit to be a head coach – after all, Pete Carmichael Jr. (New Orleans Saints Offensive Coordinator) would have been hired years ago if that were the case. Skills like communication, leadership, management, and organization are also very important abilities for a head coach to have if they want to be successful. Back in 2017 when Harold Goodwin received a few head coaching interviews from NFL teams, Tampa Bay Buccaneers head coach Bruce Arians emphasized the importance of those skills to those teams stating, “You’re not hiring a playcaller. You’re hiring a leader of men. You’re not hiring a playcaller, you’re hiring a head coach. He will hire a playcaller, but you’re looking for a man to lead your team and lead your organization. There are a few us that call plays, very few, so don’t hire an offensive coordinator. Hire a head coach.”

Harold Goodwin has been developing the skills necessary to be a head coach dating back to his college days at Michigan (graduated with a degree in management and communications) and should be in the mix for a head coaching job in 2022.

Mike Kafka (Quarterbacks Coach, Kansas City Chiefs)

It’s no secret that the Kansas City Chiefs have been one of the best teams in the NFL since Patrick Mahomes became the starting quarterback. And when a team has success, their coaching staff tends to get poached by other teams looking to get a piece of that success. Eric Bieniemy will likely be one coaching staff member that gets poached from the Chiefs in 2022 but do not be surprised if the Chiefs quarterbacks coach and passing game coordinator Mike Kafka also gets offered a head coaching position. Kafka has been the Chiefs quarterbacks coach for nearly the entirety of Patrick Mahomes’s career thus far, joining the team in 2018. He has the relatability factor with players, having played quarterback in the NFL for the Philadelphia Eagles (2010-2011) and Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2014). He also will be just 34 years old at the start of the 2021 season, and some teams may look at him as the next great young offensive-minded coach like Sean McVay, Matt LaFleur, or Kevin Stefanski.

Sean Desai (Defensive Coordinator, Chicago Bears)

Sean Desai will be the Chicago Bears’ defensive coordinator in 2021 after Chuck Pagano retired. Desai has been the Chicago Bears, coaching staff, for a while, previously spending time as a defensive quality control coach (2013-2018) and safeties coach (2019-2020) for the team.

Shane Steichen (Offensive Coordinator, Philadelphia Eagles)

Despite the Los Angeles Chargers’ struggles over the past couple of years, Shane Steichen did a pretty great job as an offensive coordinator in his first 24 games in the role for the team and helped Justin Herbert have one of the best rookie quarterback seasons in NFL history.

Now Steichen is with the Philadelphia Eagles on Nick Sirianni’s coaching staff. If he can design an offense around quarterback Jalen Hurts that helps Hurts improve upon his 52% completion percentage he should get some strong looks as a head coaching candidate in 2022.

Matt Canada (Offensive Coordinator, Pittsburgh Steelers)

*College statistics include sacks as a rushing statistic

The post 5 Under The Radar NFL Head Coaching Candidates For 2022 appeared first on Pro Football Mania.

By: Eli Grabanski

When Tebow signed with the Jacksonville Jaguars, sports media went crazy, and for good reason. He has not played for an NFL team since 2012. He’s slated to be 34 years old going into the 2021 NFL season. And he’s going to be making the switch from quarterback to tight end! Based on all this information, it’s a stretch that he even makes the Jaguars’ final roster.

But what if Tebow did make the roster? What would his ceiling look like?

This article will dive into what kind of stat line we could realistically see from Tim Tebow if he manages to make the team and has a role in the Jaguars offense in 2021.

Jacksonville Jaguars Depth Chart

The Jacksonville Jaguars have some depth at quarterback with Trevor Lawrence and Gardner Minshew. They have depth at running back with James Robinson, Travis Etienne, and Carlos Hyde. They have depth at wide receiver with D.J. Chark, Marvin Jones, Laviska Shenault, and Collin Johnson. But at the tight end position? Not so much. Right now on the Jaguars roster, they have Chris Manhertz, James O’Shaughnessy, Luke Farrell, and Tim Tebow at the tight end position which is less than inspiring. The lack of an established quality tight end option will improve Tebow’s chances of making the final roster and challenge for some play-time here and there.

The Urban Meyer Factor

If Urban Meyer weren’t the head coach of the Jacksonville Jaguars, Tim Tebow would not be in the NFL. But Urban Meyer had success with Tebow at the college level over a decade ago and believed that Tebow could be useful to the Jaguars offense in 2021, so he decided to give him a chance.

We can’t expect anything close to the kind of production he put up in college at the NFL level, playing a new position, over a decade later. But looking at these college statistics, we can see that Tebow was utilized in a couple of ways during his time at Florida – mainly through the air with his passing and on the ground with his rushing ability. This versatility makes it seem likely that the tight end position will be just one of the places that Tim Tebow lines up…especially considering that Urban Meyer’s 219 game career as a college football head coach, his tight end room averaged just 2.13 receptions for 25.61 receiving yards and 0.26 receiving touchdowns per game and he has been well-known for using players all over the field – like Trey Burton, Percy Harvin, Jordan Reed, and Curtis Samuel. Meyer and the Jaguars may list Tebow as a tight end officially, but he will likely deploy Tebow in a Taysom Hill-like fashion if Tebow makes the final roster.

The Darrell Bevell Factor

The Jacksonville Jaguars offensive coordinator will be Darrell Bevell during the 2021 season. Bevell has taken a more traditional approach in utilizing his players and probably won’t be the one pushing for Tebow to play.

Take a look at the graph above. In just three seasons of Darrell Bevell’s 14-year career, he’s provided his officially listed wide receivers and tight ends with more than one carry per game. If Urban Meyer takes a more hands-off approach to the offense and leaves Darrell Bevell in charge, Bevell probably won’t give much rushing work to Tebow which would limit his overall upside as a player. The good news is that if Bevell believes that Tebow can successfully play the traditional tight end position, there is a little bit of receiving upside given Bevell sticks to his utilization of the position over the last five years.

The Conclusion

Tim Tebow may be listed as a tight end with the Jacksonville Jaguars, but given Urban Meyer’s love of ‘gadget’ players, it’s more likely that he is utilized a poor man’s Taysom Hill for the team. For reference, in 2019 when Taysom Hill was a gadget player the full season, he put up a stat line of 27 carries, 156 rushing yards, one rushing touchdown, 19 receptions (on 22 targets), 234 receiving yards, and six receiving touchdowns. Based on this, the absolute ceiling of Tim Tebow should be somewhere around…

The post What Is The Ceiling for Tim Tebow In Jacksonville? appeared first on Pro Football Mania.

By: Eli Grabanski

Justin Herbert had a season for the record books in 2020, where he had the most passing touchdowns (31) and completions (396) by a rookie QB ever. The Chargers quarterback will be just 23 years old during the 2021 season, and now the question is what is in store for Justin Herbert entering his sophomore year: a sophomore slump or sophomore stardom? This article will give you reasons why Justin Herbert will take another step forward in 2021 and break the 5000+ passing yards barrier in year two.

The Talent & Baseline

Last year Herbert played in 15 games putting up a stat line of 396 completions on 595 passing attempts for 4336 passing yards and 31 passing touchdowns (he also threw just 10 interceptions). On a per-game basis, this was an impressive 26.4 completions on 39.7 passing attempts for 289.1 passing yards and 2.07 passing touchdowns (0.67 interceptions).

This means that if Herbert were to put up the exact same per-game averages in 2021 as he did in 2020, with the new 17 game season he would end up throwing for 4915 passing yards. This means that if Herbert just makes some minor improvements to his game or sees some improvements in his situation, 5000 passing yards will be very achievable.

Pass-Happy Offensive Coordinator

The Chargers hired Joe Lombardi to be the team’s new offensive coordinator. Over the course of 23 games that Joe Lombardi was the Detroit Lions offensive coordinator, the team averaged 39.35 pass attempts per game.

In fact, Joe Lombardi’s offenses average the most passing attempts among the 42 offensive coordinators and offensive-minded head coaches with previous NFL experience as a play-caller. Pairing a historically pass-happy offensive coordinator in Joe Lombardi with Justin Herbert, who threw the ball 595 times in just 15 games last year (39.67 per game) means that Herbert will get plenty of volume once again in 2021. This volume will make it easier for Herbert to put up impressive passing numbers.

Improved Offensive Line

In 2020, the Chargers had the worst offensive line in football according to PFF. They decided to address the line this offseason by picking up Corey Linsley in free agency (89.9 PFF grade on 734 snaps last year) and drafting offensive tackle Rashawn Slater in the first round of the 2021 NFL Draft. Both of these players should provide a major boost to the line and give Herbert more time to throw in 2021.

Weapons

The Chargers may have lost Hunter Henry this past offseason, but other than that they managed to keep all their key weapons with Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, and Austin Ekeler returning for 2021.

Herbert won’t be left on an island this season like some other NFL quarterbacks as he has a bunch of quality receiving options. Having these great pass-catching threats will give Herbert the help he needs to put up massive passing numbers this season, and realistically challenge for 5000+ passing yards.

Conclusion

Overall, Justin Herbert is an impressive quarterback talent who should be in an even better situation in 2021 to put up big passing numbers. This combination of talent, situation, and a 17 game season give Herbert a phenomenal chance at throwing for 5000+ passing yards and cementing his spot among the best quarterbacks in the NFL.

The post Why Justin Herbert will Throw For 5000+ Passing Yards in 2021 appeared first on Pro Football Mania.

By: Eli Grabanski

When the NFL decided to expand the NFL playoffs for the 2020 season from six playoff teams in each conference to seven playoff teams per conference, it opened up an interesting possibility – having a division sending every team in it to the playoffs. It didn’t happen in 2020, but it very well could in 2021 with the way some divisions and matchups are shaping up. One division that has a great shot at being the first to send all four teams to the playoffs is the NFC South, consisting of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, New Orleans Saints, Atlanta Falcons, and Carolina Panthers. Let’s dive into why this division may be the most likely to accomplish this feat.

NFL Schedule

While the NFL schedule has yet to be officially released, we do know that the NFC South teams will play 6 divisional games, four games against all the teams in the AFC East (Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins, New York Jets, and the New England Patriots), and four games against all the teams in the NFC East (Washington Football Team, New York Giants, Philadelphia Eagles, and Dallas Cowboys).

Each of these teams getting four games against the worst division in the league last year in the NFC East provides a major boost in chances for the NFC South sending four teams to the playoffs. The NFC South has a more favorable schedule in 2021 than other top candidates to send four teams to the playoffs, the NFC West and the AFC North, and that gives them a significant boost in potentially sending four teams to the playoffs.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are the defending Super Bowl champions and managed to retain all 22 of their starters from the championship-winning team last year. This was an incredible feat to accomplish considering that guys like Chris Godwin, Leonard Fournette, Shaquil Barrett, Lavonte David, Rob Gronkowski, Ndamukong Suh, and Antonio Brown were all free agents after the season. In addition, there were no major coaching staff shakeups with Bruce Arians, Byron Leftwich, and Todd Bowles all coming back for the 2021 NFL season as well. Having all this talent still in place for the 2021 season makes it difficult to see the Buccaneers missing the playoffs and once again a threat to win the Super Bowl.

New Orleans Saints

The New Orleans Saints will not have their future Hall of Fame quarterback Drew Brees for the 2021 season…but the team has actually done remarkably well without him the past couple of years. The Saints went 5-0 in Brees’s absence with Teddy Bridgewater during the 2019 season, and they went 3-1 with Taysom Hill in Brees’s absence during this past season. They still have skill-position talent on the offensive side of the ball, with Alvin Kamara (RB) and Michael Thomas (WR) being two of the top players at their respective positions. They still have one of the better offensive lines in the league, ranking as the 8th best offensive line in 2020 according to PFF and keeping many of the line’s key members. And while they no longer have Drew Brees, they have a couple of competent quarterback options in Taysom Hill and Jameis Winston to keep the offense performing at an above-average level. Their defense ranked as a top-five unit last year and should be a solid unit once again under defensive coordinator Dennis Allen. Overall, the Saints may not be quite as good as the 12-4 team last year, but they maintained enough talent to be a good playoff team in 2021.

Atlanta Falcons

The Atlanta Falcons may have finished 4-12 last year, but things are looking up for the 2021 season. The Falcons hired Arthur Smith to be the team’s new head coach and Smith has directed one of the best offenses in the league the past couple of years.

Arthur Smith will make the Falcons a more balanced team between passing and running, and will utilize a ton of play-action to maximize the team’s efficiency. The Falcons offense will have the opportunity to go from a ”˜very good’ offense to an ”˜unstoppable’ offense in 2021 under Smith’s direction.

Besides Arthur Smith, the Falcons did a phenomenal job on filling out the rest of the team’s coaching staff. Perhaps the biggest member of the coaching staff that Smith hired was defensive coordinator Dean Pees, who has been an above-average defensive coordinator over the course of his career.

Besides adding talent on the coaching side, the Falcons added some very talented players in the 2021 NFL Draft such as Kyle Pitts (TE), Richie Grant (S), Jalen Mayfield (OT), Darren Hall (CB), and Drew Dalman (C). All of these offseason moves by the Atlanta Falcons give the team a legitimate chance to compete for a playoff spot in 2021.

Carolina Panthers

The Carolina Panthers are the biggest stretch to make the playoffs from this division, but they have a couple of things working for them. Last year, the Panthers had 11 games within eight points…and they went 3-8 in those games. The team was certainly better than they appeared last year and they have made some changes to the roster that may give them a much-needed boost to take the next step. They made a change at quarterback by moving on from Teddy Bridgewater and bringing in Sam Darnold to be the team’s new starting quarterback. Darnold has more upside than Bridgewater does at this stage of his career and raises the ceiling of the Panthers team – especially with two strong offensive minds in Matt Rhule & Joe Brady working with him. They made a flurry of moves in free agency, picking up guys like Haason Reddick (LB), A.J. Bouye (CB), Denzel Perryman (LB), and Da’Quan Jones (DT). They also added some great talent through the NFL Draft drafting Jaycee Horn (CB), Terrace Marshall Jr. (WR), Tommy Tremble (TE), and Chuba Hubbard (RB) among others. Given how many close games the Panthers played in during 2020 and the team’s upgrades in talent, they could make a run for one of the final playoff spots in the NFC for 2021.

Conclusion

Some divisions have the talent to potentially send four teams to the playoffs – like the NFC West or the AFC North. Other divisions have a schedule that makes it easier to send four teams to the playoffs but lacks the talent. But the NFC South is the division that has the best of both worlds for the 2021 season. Because of this, if any division is going to send all four teams to the playoffs for 2021, it will be the NFC South.

The post Why the NFC South is the most likely division to have four teams in the playoffs appeared first on Pro Football Mania.

Daniel Jones has had an up-and-down career thus far as a quarterback. He started his career off with a promising rookie year where he threw 24 passing touchdowns in just 13 games and many people expected him to take the next step in year two. It didn’t happen, with Jones throwing for just 2943 passing yards and 11 passing touchdowns in 14 games. After such an up-and-down start to his career, a big question remains: what can we expect from Jones in year 3? Let’s dive into his profile in order to have a better idea of what Jones should bring to the table in his junior season.

Flashes Of Passing Upside

In Daniel Jones’ rookie year he threw 24 passing touchdowns in just 13 games. His 24 touchdown passes led all rookie quarterbacks during the 2019 NFL season and at the time it was the 4th-most passing touchdowns by a rookie in a single season in NFL history – with only Baker Mayfield (27 in 2018), Peyton Manning (26 in 1998) and Russell Wilson (26 in 2012) having more.

Then he took a step back in his sophomore year, throwing just 11 touchdowns in 14 games. But it wasn’t all bad. Jones flashed some serious potential with his deep ball during the 2020 NFL season.

Jones may not end up being the next Peyton Manning or Tom Brady as a passer, but he’s shown enough to prove that he can be a franchise quarterback – if he gets put in the right situation.

Rushing Ability

When you look at Daniel Jones, you will probably don’t think of him as being a strong runner…but he surprisingly is. Over the first 27 games of his career, Daniel Jones has carried the ball 110 times for 702 rushing yards and three rushing touchdowns. In fact, last year he ranked 7th among quarterbacks in rushing yards, finishing with 423 – more than players like Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Ryan Tannehill, and Justin Herbert.

Jones having the ability to make plays with his legs makes the Giants offense much more difficult to defend and raises his ceiling as a quarterback.

Weapons Upgrade

The New York Giants clearly got sick of having Evan Engram as their number one receiving option in 2020, and decided to address it this offseason. They made a huge splash in free agency and signed former Detroit Lions wide receiver Kenny Golladay to a four-year, $72 million deal. Golladay has a couple of 1000+ receiving yard seasons under his belt and has been one of the best deep-threats in the league the past few seasons.

Golladay’s knack for being a deep-threat should mesh well with Daniel Jones, who completed 46.2% of his deep balls last year – 7th best in the NFL according to PlayerProfiler.

Just adding Kenny Golladay would be a substantial improvement on the Giants pass-catchers. But besides Golladay, the Giants drafted wide receiver Kadarius Toney in the 1st round of the 2021 NFL Draft. Toney flashed major yards after the catch skills during his college career and will make some big plays for the Giants in 2021. Having improved weapons will make Daniel Jones’ job much easier in 2021 and allow for him to put up much better numbers.

Another Year In The System

It is important to note that Daniel Jones had to learn an entirely new system last year after the New York Giants fired Pat Shurmur and brought in Joe Judge to be the team’s new head coach, who appointed former Dallas Cowboys head coach Jason Garrett to be the team’s new offensive coordinator and play-caller.

It can take a while to learn a brand-new system in a normal offseason, but when you also factor in that the 2020 NFL offseason was not normal with the COVID-19 pandemic, it makes it even more difficult. Overall, we should expect Daniel Jones to feel more comfortable in Jason Garrett’s offense for the 2021 season and to improve in the passing yards and passing touchdowns department for next season.

Concerns

It wouldn’t be fair to talk about Jones without bringing up some of the major concerns surrounding his profile. The first of these major concerns is the New York Giants offensive line. The New York Giants offensive line ranked 31st in the league last year according to Pro Football Focus and Daniel Jones was sacked 45 times in just 14 games last year (3.21 per game). Inexperience played a large factor on the Giants line in 2020 with Andrew Thomas, Shane Lemieux, Nick Gates, Matt Peart, and Will Hernandez all having four seasons or less under their belts and being younger than 26 years old. Another year of experience should help these players out, as well as the Giants hiring a new offensive line coach Rob Sale to replace Marc Colombo.

The other major concern with Daniel Jones has been his turnover issues. In Daniel Jones’ first two seasons in the league, he’s thrown 22 interceptions and fumbled the ball 29 times. This is an absurd amount of turnover-worthy plays and raises some major concerns about his ability to take care of the football. But while this is a major concern, it is important to note that Jones improved in this area from his rookie to sophomore seasons – seeing his percentage of times where he was intercepted on a pass attempt drop from 2.6% to 2.2% and seeing his fumbles go down from 18 in his rookie year (13 games) to 11 in his sophomore season (14 games). He’s clearly putting the work in to improve in this year which makes his outlook a little more optimistic.

Conclusion

Daniel Jones has a lot of great tools in his skillset. He’s flashed the talent, posting a 78.4 PFF grade in 2020. He’s become more familiar with Jason Garrett’s offense with another year under his belt. He’s gotten the receiving weapons he has so desperately needed in Kenny Golladay and Kadarius Toney. Now it’s just a matter of him putting it all together and living up to his billing as the New York Giants franchise quarterback. Jones is on the cusp of a breakout season and could be a major sleeper QB in the NFC this year.

The post Why Daniel Jones is the ultimate Sleeper QB in the NFC appeared first on Pro Football Mania.

The Baltimore Ravens have been one of the best-run franchises in the NFL since they joined the league in 1996, compiling a 225-174-1 record. Over the past three seasons, the team has been even more dangerous putting up a 35-13 regular-season record. But despite this phenomenal regular-season record, the team hasn’t experienced a lot of playoff success. One area that has been consistently been criticized has been the team’s wide receiver room. This article will look into a few reasons why the Baltimore Ravens will look into trading up to draft a wide receiver in the 2021 NFL Draft.

1. The Need

The wide receivers on the Ravens roster are currently Marquise Brown, Sammy Watkins, Miles Boykin, Devin Duvernay, Jaylon Moore, James Proche II, Deon Cain, and Binjimen Victor. Of these players, only Marquise Brown and Sammy Watkins have caught more than 35 passes in their NFL careers.

Counting on Marquise Brown to emerge as a legitimate WR1 and Sammy Watkins to stay healthy does not seem like the best plan for the Ravens if they want to take the next step in 2021. Clearly, the Ravens are clearly lacking talent at the wide receiver position after striking out on the big wide receiver free agency targets in players like Kenny Golladay, Will Fuller, and JuJu Smith-Schuster, and will need to address this need in some other way during the offseason. Draft day is the perfect opportunity to do so.

One argument that has been made against the Ravens drafting a wide receiver is that Greg Roman’s offense doesn’t really utilize the position in the passing game.

As you can see from the graph above, it is true – Greg Roman hasn’t typically utilized his wide receivers frequently in the passing game. But to be fair to Roman, a lot of that comes down to not working with a ton of talent at the position.

Take a look at the table above. When Greg Roman was working with solid wide receiver talents like Anquan Boldin or Michael Crabtree he was willing to provide them with 100+ targets over the course of the season and feature more than one wide receiver through the air. He hasn’t been able to do that with the Ravens wide receivers the last two years, because their production hasn’t been enough to justify giving them that level of work.

Are the Ravens ever going to provide their wide receivers with a ridiculous number of targets? No, at least not in Greg Roman’s run-heavy offense. But they definitely need some help at the position in order to take the next step and make a deep playoff run.

2. Current Draft Capital

The Baltimore Ravens will have nine draft picks in the 2021 NFL Draft after they traded Orlando Brown Jr. to the Kansas City Chiefs.

With the 27th and 31st pick as potential ammo, the Ravens could realistically trade up to as high as the 11th pick of the draft based on the traditional NFL Draft trade value chart. While the Ravens may feel that it is too costly to trade up all the way to 11, conducting a trade up to the late teens or early twenties could easily be in the cards if one of their draft targets is available.

3. Wide Receiver Talent In The 2021 NFL Draft Class

There are a few wide receivers in the 2021 NFL Draft that are clear 1st round draft choices or at least in the mix for the 1st round. Let’s take a look at some of them.

• Ja’Marr Chase (LSU): Chase opted out of the 2020 college football season, but put up an impressive stat line of 84 receptions for 1780 receiving yards and 20 receiving touchdowns in 2019 for LSU (14 games). His vertical acceleration, ball-tracking/downfield adjustments, and sticky hands are just a few of the traits that make him a top-tier wide receiver option in the NFL draft.
• DeVonta Smith (Alabama): DeVonta Smith won the Heisman trophy in 2020 after catching 117 passes for 1856 receiving yards and 23 receiving touchdowns in just 13 games. Some of the traits that stand out about Smith are his route-running/separation, his ability to make circus catches, and his versatility to play well both outside and in the slot.
• Jaylen Waddle (Alabama): Jaylen Waddle only played in six games during the 2020 college football season, but he made the most of it, putting up 28 receptions for 591 receiving yards and four receiving touchdowns. At worst, Waddle will do a great job taking the top off the defense with his game-breaking speed and ability to adjust to the deep ball. But his ceiling of being the type of impact player that Tyreek Hill is for the Kansas City Chiefs makes him an intriguing first-round option.
• Rashod Bateman (Minnesota): Rashod Bateman played in just five games during the 2020 season, finishing the season with 36 receptions for 472 receiving yards and two receiving touchdowns. While his junior season wasn’t as good as his sophomore year, his combination of build-up speed and size puts him somewhere in the mix of 1st and 2nd round wide receivers.
• Elijah Moore (Ole Miss): Elijah Moore was dominant his junior year, putting up a stat line of 86 receptions for 1193 receiving yards and eight receiving touchdowns in just eight games for Ole Miss. He had the lowest drop rate among SEC wide receivers last year according to PFF and his blazing speed makes him worth considering in the first round of the 2021 NFL Draft.
• Terrace Marshall (LSU): Terrace Marshall Jr. had 48 receptions for 731 receiving yards and 10 receiving touchdowns in his seven games last year for LSU. He more than likely will be available at 27 or 31 for the Ravens, but it’s possible his talent and physical abilities push him into a higher draft range.
• Rondale Moore (Purdue): Rondale Moore had a dominant freshman year at Purdue back in 2018, catching 114 passes for 1258 receiving yards and 12 receiving touchdowns. But since then he’s only played in seven games. He’s a little undersized but has the speed and competitiveness that teams love.

There’s a lot of talent here, so much so that one could argue it’s enough for the Ravens to stand pat. But not all of these players are good fits for the Ravens offense and it’s vital that they get a player that will mesh well with the team – which is why a trade-up will likely be necessary.

Conclusion

The Ravens should be actively looking into trading up for a wide receiver in the 2021 NFL Draft. Ja’Marr Chase, DeVonta Smith, and Jaylen Waddle are the top wide receiver targets in the NFL Draft, but it would take at least one of them slipping into the teens for the Ravens to realistically be able to trade up without giving up too much draft capital. If none of those three are available, it would also make a lot of sense for the Ravens to package up picks 27 and 31 to the Washington Football Team or the Chicago Bears for their 1st and 2nd rounders in order to secure one of Rashod Bateman or Elijah Moore – giving their wide receiver room a much-needed boost and still getting another solid player in the 2nd round with pick 51/52.

Writer’s Prediction: Ja’Marr Chase, DeVonta Smith, and Jaylen Waddle go in the top 12 picks. The Baltimore Ravens trade picks 27, 31, and 184 to the Washington Football Team for picks 19 and 51 to jump the Tennessee Titans (pick 22) who also need a wide receiver – as well as to also ensure teams like New Orleans (pick 28) or Green Bay (pick 29) don’t potentially trade up to take the Ravens’ guy. The Ravens then select Rashod Bateman (WR, Minnesota Gophers) with the 19th overall pick in the draft.

Follow Eli Grabanski on Twitter: @3li_handles

The post 3 Reasons The Ravens Will Trade Up For a Wide Receiver In the 2021 NFL Draft appeared first on Pro Football Mania.

By: Eli Grabanski

Each offseason, NFL teams make moves to try and better their franchises. They may choose to shake up the front office, the coaching staff, the offense, or the defense in order to achieve this goal. While we all like to talk about the big moves that happen during the offseason, the more underrated moves can make all the difference for a franchise. Here are five of the more underrated moves that have happened during the NFL offseason so far.

1. Steelers fire offensive coordinator Randy Fichtner, promote Matt Canada

The Pittsburgh Steelers fired Randy Fichtner after three seasons as the team’s offensive coordinator and promoted quarterbacks coach Matt Canada to the position. Fichtner refused to run the ball in his career as the team’s offensive coordinator, with the team having 345 rushing attempts, 395 rushing attempts in 2019, and 373 rushing attempts in 2020. This will not be the case with Matt Canada as the offensive coordinator.

While it’s unrealistic to expect Canada to have the Steelers run the ball 38.69 times per game, the offense will undoubtedly become more balanced in 2021. The team will not be game planning to have 39-year-old Ben Roethlisberger throw the ball 41 times per game again this year and instead focus on winning through their run game and elite defense in 2021.

2. Corey Linsley signs with the Los Angeles Chargers

The Los Angeles Chargers offense had the quarterback last year with rookie sensation Justin Herbert. They had the weapons with running back Austin Ekeler, wide receiver Keenan Allen, wide receiver Mike Williams, and tight end Hunter Henry (who’s now a New England Patriot). But they didn’t have the offensive line, finishing as the worst offensive line in the league last year according to PFF. The Chargers decided to prioritize addressing the line this offseason and signed all-pro center Corey Linsley to a five-year, $62.5 million deal. Linsley posted an elite 89.9 PFF grade over the 734 snaps he played last year and should provide a big boost to the team.

3. Atlanta Falcons move on from Dan Quinn, bring in Arthur Smith and Dean Pees

Since 2015, Dan Quinn had been the Atlanta Falcons head coach. Five games into the 2020 season, the Falcons decided to fire Quinn and began to look for a new leader in the locker room. The Falcons found this new leader this past offseason in former Tennessee Titans offensive coordinator Arthur Smith and hired him to be the team’s new head coach. Smith has directed one of the best offenses in the league the past couple of years.

Arthur Smith will make the Falcons a more balanced team between passing and running, and will utilize a ton of play-action to maximize the team’s efficiency. The Falcons offense will have the opportunity to go from a ‘very good’ offense to an ‘unstoppable’ offense in 2021 under Smith’s direction.

Besides Arthur Smith, the Falcons did a phenomenal job on filling out the rest of the team’s coaching staff. Perhaps the biggest member of the coaching staff that Smith hired was defensive coordinator Dean Pees.

Dean Pees has been a great defensive coordinator at every stop he’s been at and should be able to get the most out of the Atlanta Falcons defense. The Falcons coaching staff hires give the team a legitimate chance to compete for a playoff spot in 2021.

4. Former Broncos RB Phillip Lindsay signs with Houston Texans

The Houston Texans are unlikely to be a great team in 2021, but they did make a strong under-the-radar move in signing Phillip Lindsay to a 1 year, $3,250,000 contract. Lindsay had a down year in Denver last season, putting up a stat line of 118 carries, 502 rushing yards, seven receptions, 28 receiving yards, and one touchdown and playing in just 11 games. But in the two seasons prior, Lindsay ran for 1000+ rushing yards, scored at least seven rushing touchdowns, and caught at least 35 passes.

There’s a good chance that Lindsay bounces-back now that he’s healthy and becomes a great bargain for the Houston Texans. Keep an eye on him in Houston.

5. Jacksonville Jaguars sign former Detroit Lions WR Marvin Jones

The Jacksonville Jaguars wide receivers D.J. Chark and Laviska Shenault have gotten a lot of hype for the 2021 season so far this offseason, while the new Jaguars wide receiver Marvin Jones hasn’t gotten nearly the same hype. Part of that may be because we largely know what the 31-year-old receiver is at this point of his career, but Jones has quite a bit going for him.

• Jones is already familiar with offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell’s playbook after working together the past couple of seasons in Detroit.
• Marvin Jones led the Detroit Lions in red-zone targets last year with 21. In each of the last two seasons, he has scored 9 receiving touchdowns.
• Last year, Jones averaged 90.4 air yards per game which above-average for a wide receiver. He also averaged 1.54 air yards per snap and had 29.7% of the Lions’ air yards.
• During the 2020 season, Marvin Jones went eight of eleven on contested catches, a rate that ranked 5th in the NFL.

Based on this information Jones should have another solid year with the Jacksonville Jaguars, and provide Trevor Lawrence with a reliable receiving threat.

Follow Eli Grabanski on Twitter @3li_handles

The post NFL Recap: 5 Most Underrated NFL Off-Season Moves appeared first on Pro Football Mania.