By Preston W (@FF_Engineer_)

Day by day, we are getting closer to the draft. Fantasy analysts (myself included) are constantly trying to predict landing spots for rookie skill players. We’re often looking at how the value of a rookie wide receiver will grow based on their landing spot, so I decided to mix things up and look at how the value of our current veteran quarterbacks can grow, based on the addition of a rookie wide receiver.

Just one year ago, Dak Prescott was greeted by the addition of rookie wide receiver CeeDee Lamb, while fantasy managers were greeted with elite fantasy production from Prescott in his first five games, prior to his injury. Not only do we want these rookie wide receivers going to an offense that can support them volume wise for fantasy purposes, but we want our quarterbacks to benefit from these additions as well. So let’s take a look at three quarterbacks who could use another pass catcher.

Lamar Jackson

Alright, so maybe your initial reaction to one of the studs in this wide receiver class going to Baltimore isn’t that pleasant. I’ll admit, initially I wasn’t the biggest proponent for this idea either, but recently I’ve had a change of heart. This is due to the concept that Marquise Brown is not the ideal alpha wide receiver for Baltimore, and he’s better suited as the team’s WR2. Yes, Lamar Jackson and Hollywood Brown can both benefit from the addition of a dominant wide receiver in this draft. I think people all too often mistake Jackson’s elite rushing ability for a lack of passing ability, and while last year he wasn’t as dominant in the passing game, his 2019 numbers paint a different picture:

Lamar Jackson Season Stats

It’s no secret that Jackson’s fantasy production took a dip last season – an 82.9 point dip to be exact. It was literally the difference between a historic QB1 season, and finishing as the QB10 overall. Jackson’s rushing was down as well, but not nearly as down as his passing numbers. In fact, only 24% of Jackson’s decrease in fantasy points scored was due to his rushing production. Jackson has elite mobility for a quarterback, but he still has an incredible arm. An arm that led the league in passing touchdowns in 2019. An arm that could benefit from the addition of another weapon.

So who could Lamar Jackson’s next receiving threat be? One rookie that could be available for Baltimore at 1.27 is Terrace Marshall Jr. out of LSU. Marshall is one of the few bigger-bodied receivers in this class, and he’s someone that profiles as an alpha receiver, which would be a great fit for Baltimore. However, if Baltimore goes a different direction in the first round, another player I’d be excited about Baltimore going after in the next round is Dyami Brown from UNC. Either Marshall or Brown could help revitalize Jackson’s passing game back to what it was in 2019. A solid addition to Baltimore’s receiving room would put Jackson back into the mix for finishing as the overall QB1 in 2021.

Jalen Hurts

We all know Philadelphia hasn’t made the best draft choices when it comes to the wide receiver position. Between drafting Jalen Reagor over Justin Jefferson in 2020, and taking JJ Arcega-Whiteside over DK Metcalf in 2019, there’s been some disappointing moments. Perhaps these receivers simply couldn’t live up to their values due to the poor quarterback play over the past two seasons. On the other hand, Philadelphia has always heavily relied upon their tight ends in the passing game with Carson Wentz at quarterback. But how does Jalen Hurts compare when targeting his wide receivers compared to his tight ends?

2020 Philadelphia Passing Offense Splits

For starters, Hurts isn’t the same system quarterback as Wentz was. Hurts targets his wide receivers at a higher rate, so if Philadelphia wants to give Hurts a real shot, they should turn their focus towards growing their three and four wide receiver sets. It also shows that simply Hurts doing his thing and more frequently targeting his wide receivers results in a more efficient passing game for Philadelphia. If they want to make Hurts work, they should work on building the offense around him.

So what are some possibilities for Philadelphia? Based on their part in the block buster trade, in which they moved from 1.06 back to 1.12, I think their intentions are clear that they plan on taking one of the top receivers. It also shows that they aren’t interested in taking top tight end prospect Kyle Pitts. At pick 12, the best overall option that should be available for Philadelphia is Jaylen Waddle from Alabama. Philadelphia and Hurts could really benefit from Waddle’s explosiveness and deep threat ability. Of course, if Ja’Marr Chase happened to fall to Philadelphia at 12, that would be another excellent addition for their offense.

Jameis Winston

I know this one is of the nature of speculation since we don’t know who the starter will be next season. Since we are already exploring best cases for fantasy purposes, there’s no better team to address than one deciding between Taysom Hill and Jameis Winston. From what we’ve seen, Jameis Winston should provide a decent boost to New Orleans’ offense, compared to Hill. I touched on this in my last article regarding Alvin Kamara. Regardless, as of now Winston’s only solid receiver is Michael Thomas, so adding in another target for Winston could prove useful for his fantasy value. Looking back, there was a certain point in Winston’s career where gaining a wide receiver named Chris Godwin boosted Winston’s fantasy value. Let’s take a look:

Jameis Winston Season Stats

Winston scoring an additional 1.9 points per game adds up over time. That seemingly small boost can propel someone like Winston from a mid-range QB2 to a QB1. It’s clear that every aspect of Winston’s passing game and fantasy value grew when he got a solid addition to his receiving corp in Tampa. The same can be true with New Orleans. Having more mouths to feed isn’t a bad thing for a quarterback like Winston, and it isn’t a bad thing for his current elite receiver either.

So who could be on New Orleans’ draft radar? For starters, if Baltimore passes on Terrace Marshall Jr. in the first round, New Orleans should scoop Marshall right up. Marshall can complement Michael Thomas and New Orleans’ system well, setting up Winston for added success. Another solid fit for this receiving corp is Rashod Bateman out of Minnesota. Both Marshall and Bateman can provide versatility by lining up both outside and in the slot, making them great fits for New Orleans and Winston.

The post Three Quarterbacks to Benefit From a Rookie Wide Receiver appeared first on Pro Football Mania.

By Preston W (@FF_Engineer_)

When drafting in fantasy football, it’s critical to know when to be high on a player, or low on a player. This process allows you to become a better drafter across all formats, as you can identify players who are a value based on their average draft position (ADP), as well as fade players based on their ADP. For instance, if you faded D.J. Moore last season while he was being drafted as the WR10, you would’ve successfully done so as he finished as the WR25. If you instead drafted Calvin Ridley at his ADP of WR14, you would’ve reaped the rewards as Ridley finished as the WR5 on the season. Knowing who to be high on, and who to fade, can be the difference in a RB1 and a RB2, or a WR2 and WR3. It’s the most crucial part of winning your league’s draft.

One player worth the in depth analysis on is Alvin Kamara. Kamara is consistently being taken within the first five picks in drafts, meaning he is costing significant draft capital, so much so that we can’t afford to be wrong on this selection. More importantly, Kamara is going to experience a shift this coming season, with Drew Brees retiring. As of now, Kamara’s options at quarterback are Jameis Winston and Taysom Hill. So let’s take a look at how these two might fair out.

What has history shown us?

It may seem odd to a general football fan, but we in the fantasy community actually judge running backs by how solid of receivers they are. And that’s because most of us play in formats where players are rewarded for how many passes they catch. Since entering the league in 2017, Kamara has been extremely consistent in the passing game. In fact, Kamara consistently caught 81 balls in each of his first three seasons, until he surpassed that number last season with 83 receptions.  

Alvin Kamara Receiving by Season

I included these per game metrics because it’s useful when analyzing a player like Kamara, who has missed a couple of games over the past few seasons. Over his four years in the league, he’s played 16 games, 15 games, 14 games, and 15 games. Throughout those years, he’s experienced quite a bit of utilization in the passing game, averaging 6.8 targets per game and 5.4 receptions per game across his career.

So why does this matter? For starters, throughout Kamara’s career, he’s averaged 21.6 fantasy points per game (FPPG). If he’s averaging 5.4 receptions per game, that means 5.4 points of those 21.6 FPPG are from him simply catching passes. That’s right, 25% of Kamara’s points are just from him earning one point per reception, and we know Kamara is a highly elusive runner, capable of racking up receiving yards too.

What I’m trying to get at here is that much of Kamara’s fantasy success is derived from his usage in the passing game. The reason I’m focusing on this is because for a majority of his career, Drew Brees was throwing him the ball. In the year 2021, it’s either going to be Taysom Hill or Jameis Winston, and either of those players will have an impact on Kamara. So let’s look at some trends.

Alvin Kamara’s Game Splits with and without Drew Brees

Well for starters, Kamara’s target share is depleted by about 27% when Drew Brees isn’t his quarterback. Additionally, he’s catching approximately 30% less passes without Brees, which is identical to his 30% decrease in FPPG. There’s obviously a trend occurring between Kamara’s passing game production and Brees being the quarterback. This also directly affects Kamara’s fantasy football production due to how much his points are dependent upon his usage in the passing game. But let’s take a look at how his production fairs with one of his possible quarterbacks for this season: Taysom Hill.

Alvin Kamara with Drew Brees vs. Taysom Hill

It’s obvious that Kamara’s production regressed even more with Taysom Hill. I guess Teddy Bridgewater wasn’t the worst thing for Kamara. And Kamara managers felt this pain directly last season during those four games Brees missed. It was very clear that Kamara’s fantasy production took a turn for the worst under Hill. Nonetheless, it’s important to acknowledge how serious this is. There’s a 50% chance Taysom Hill is the starting quarterback next year, and that is not a good thing for Kamara. Let’s take a look at how Kamara finished the 2020 season, compared to Kamara’s season long pace with only Taysom Hill.

Alvin Kamara’s 2020 Season Pace with Taysom Hill

By Kamara only scoring 14.2 FPPG, he would’ve finished as the RB9 on a points per game basis, as opposed to his season average of 25.2 FPPG, where he did finish as the RB2 in terms of points per game. Meanwhile, Kamara’s season long pace with Hill (in this case I only did so for 15 games because that’s how many Kamara played), would’ve dropped him from the RB1 on the season to the RB10. That’s not good.

But what if Jameis Winston is the starter? Unfortunately, Winston only attempted 11 passes in his first season with New Orleans, so there’s very limited direct data. But looking at Winston’s career data in terms of involving his running backs into the passing game, Winston falls somewhere between Brees and Hill.

Jameis Winston’s Career Stats When Throwing to Running Backs

It’s important to note, that this data is based upon all of Tampa Bay’s running backs, as opposed to a single lead back. Tampa Bay was in a heavy running back committee during Winston’s tenure, so there’s a sizeable gap in the data. Even in New Orleans though, Latavius Murray this year accounted for 1.7 targets per game, and 1.5 receptions per game. Winston’s career data can be viewed as a potential ceiling for Kamara, but in reality, we can expect Kamara’s numbers to be less than those listed in the table above. Now let’s compare Hill and Winston directly. 

Alvin Kamara’s Career vs. Taysom Hill and Jameis Winston Outlooks

It’s evident either are going to be a downgrade for Kamara, but there’s hope at least. Perhaps Sean Payton installs an offense in which regardless of the quarterback, they are forced to feed Kamara. But history tells us either guy will cause a decline in Kamara’s fantasy production. Even so, there are more ways to go about analyzing this situation besides only focusing on Kamara’s involvement in the passing game. For instance, how many red zone touches will Taysom Hill vulture?

I think it’s clear, Winston is the preferred candidate, for Kamara’s sake, but he’s no Brees. Needless to say, I’m fading Kamara this year. Kamara’s current ADP is 4.3, according to FantasyData, making him the RB4 draft wise. With the decline in his passing game utilization we can expect this season, I would be bumping Kamara down to somewhere around the RB7 to RB10 range. If Winston is the quarterback, I would put Kamara on the higher end of that range, and alternatively, if Hill is the guy, Kamara will be on the lower end of that range. There’s no doubt about it that Kamara is one of the most talented running backs in the league, but for fantasy purposes he’s going to be a fade this season. I’m not saying I would never draft him, but I certainly wouldn’t pay high end RB1 draft capital for low end RB1 production.

The post Why You Should Fade Alvin Kamara in 2021 appeared first on Pro Football Mania.

By: Preston W (@FF_Engineer_)

I think it’s safe to say, free agency wasn’t the most exciting this year. JuJu Smith-Schuster, Aaron Jones, and Chris Carson all re-signed with their respective teams, Chicago signed Andy Dalton, and there’s still plenty of quarterback needy teams out there. It’s obvious things could’ve gone better, I mean who really is excited about Kenny Golladay catching passes from Daniel Jones? (Sorry Giants fans).

Luckily, we are only weeks away from the NFL draft, and there’s plenty to be excited about there. This year’s wide receiver class is deep, talented, and filled with players capable of having an immediate fantasy impact. If you haven’t been living under a rock for the past few months, you’re probably aware of the big three coming out of this class ”“ Devonta Smith, Ja’Marr Chase, and Jaylen Waddle. But you’ve probably heard enough about these guys, so let’s take a look at another three wide receivers from this rookie class that haven’t been getting quite the spot light, but have incredible fantasy potential:

Rashod Bateman ”“ University of Minnesota

It’s hard not to be excited about a receiver that posted a 60 recpetion-1219 yards-11 TDs stat line in 2019, but I guess fantasy twitter would rather focus on Rashod Bateman weighing in at 190 pounds, as opposed to Minnesota listing him at 210 pounds. Meanwhile, I’m still stunned at how Bateman managed to produce 20.3 yards per reception. Although Bateman’s 2020 season was a little more uneventful posting a 36-472-2 stat line across 5 games, there was some difficulty Bateman experienced with Covid. Nonetheless, Bateman showed he was ready for the draft by posting a 4.39 second 40 yard dash. But I think you could say his speed was already evident:

The thing I love about this video is that it shows how versatile Bateman is across the field. He can do it all, from the short slants, to more deep vertical targets, Bateman is a threat across the field due to his ability to create separation. Bateman can be a real play maker in a variety of potential landing spots. There’s a good chance Bateman will go in the second round, but I wouldn’t be shocked if a team were to take a chance on him with their first round pick.

One team that may be set up nicely to draft Bateman is Kansas City. Although it’s uncertain what Kansas City will do at 1.31, I would expect them to be shopping receivers at some point during the draft. Kansas City let Sammy Watkins walk this free agency, which opens up their #2 wide receiver role. Personally, I never thought Watkins could properly fill this role, let alone Demarcus Robinson or Mecole Hardmen when given the opportunity this past season while Watkins battled injuries. Bateman would be an incredible fit as a #2 in Kansas City, complementing Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce with his differences.

Another interesting landing spot for Bateman is just across the AFC West pond with the Los Angeles Chargers. The Chargers are another team that you could make the argument for needing a #2 receiver. Mike Williams is a fine wide receiver, but he will also be a unrestricted free agent in 2022. The Chargers are already committed to building the team around Justin Herbert, so what better way to do so then taking Bateman with the 47^th pick in the draft? Justin Herbert throwing to Keenan Allen and Rashod Bateman? Sign me up.

Terrace Marshall Jr. ”“ LSU

It’s easy to go overlooked when your former teammates are 2020 rookie sensational wide receiver Justin Jefferson and top rookie prospect Ja’Marr Chase. But seriously, who better to be overshadowed by? With Jefferson moving on to the NFL in 2020, and Chase opting out of the season, Terrace Marshall Jr. was finally able to shine, posting a 48-731-10 line over the year, across only 7 games. In LSU’s 3^rd game of the season in 2020, Marshall managed to tear up Missouri’s defense with 235 receiving yards and 3 touchdowns on 11 receptions. I don’t know what’s good with the water down in Baton Rouge, Louisiana, but Marshall managed to match Chase’s 4.38 second 40 time at LSU’s pro day this year. Despite Marshall constantly being overshadowed by his teammates, his physique lines up well with an alpha wide receiver. Let’s take a look:

Plain and simple, Marshall is a big body receiver with a solid catch radius and some dangerous speed. He’s got the skill set that allows him to work outside as a vertical threat, but also play out of the slot. Not saying they are the same player, because they definitely have their differences, but Marshall does give off some vibes of another former LSU wide receiver, DJ Chark.

So where could Marshall end up? A lot of analysts would like to project Marshall going in the 2^nd round of the draft for various reasons such as his subpar route running ability, but I think NFL teams will be focusing more on how Marshall can play out as an alpha wide receiver. In all three of Mel Kiper’s mock drafts to date, he has Marshall going to Baltimore in the first round. I’m uneasy about a wide receiver being drowned out in Baltimore, but I think there could be some upside. With Marshall profiling as an alpha wide receiver, I think he could actually take over the #1 job in Baltimore, which could also help Marquise Brown’s production, as Brown hasn’t been too successful at holding that #1 role so far.

If Baltimore passes on a receiver at pick 27, or perhaps they go after a different skill set receiver, it would be quite interesting to see Marshall drop one more pick down to New Orleans. The thing is, New Orleans lacks pass catchers behind Michael Thomas. Aside from Thomas, they’re left with Tre’Quan Smith, Marquez Callaway, and Adam Trautman to catch passes from whomever will win out the starting quarterback job for next season. New Orleans was also unable to provide any upgrades to their receiving room during free agency due to their cap issues, so they will most likely be on the hunt for a receiver during the draft. Let me leave you with one thought: Jameis Winston + Michael Thomas + Terrace Marshall Jr.

Elijah Moore ”“ Ole Miss

The slot man himself, Elijah Moore, managed to post a solid 86-1193-8 line last season with a PFF grade of 91.2. Moore is a product of Ole Miss, a school we’ve seen produce some top notch NFL receivers recently with the likes of DK Metcalf and AJ Brown. But Moore’s physique couldn’t be any different than the previously mentioned alpha-build wide outs. At 5’9” and 178 pounds, Moore is a true slot receiver, and he’s got the speed to back him up. Moore managed to blaze through the 40 in 4.34 seconds at this pro day this spring. His speed, play style, and his ability to produce after the catch allow him to be a solid product of a creative coach.

Moore would be a great fit in an offense with a need for someone to thrive in the short to intermediate range, with some sneaky speed to get deep as well. Getting Moore into an offense with a coach who would utilize him in the manufactured touches game would truly unlock his potential. I’m talking utilization in a creative role ”“ somewhere between a Deebo Samuel and Tyreek Hill in terms of designed plays. But where could he land?

Right now, Moore is projected to go somewhere in the mid to late first round, in fact he’s the #5 wide receiver on Mel Kiper’s rankings. One place he could end up would involve a reunion with fellow Ole Miss alum AJ Brown, at pick #22 to Tennessee. Moore could be a solid fit as the #2 wide receiver to alpha man AJ Brown. Not to mention, Tennessee has lost 192 targets in free agency with the departure of Corey Davis, Jonnu Smith, and Adam Humphries. And signing Josh Reynolds isn’t going to make a dent in that. There’s plenty of room for Moore to fit in on this highly efficient offense, and I expect Tennessee to take a receiver in this draft, it’s just a matter of how much draft capital they’re willing to spend.

Perhaps Tennessee passes on a wide receiver with their first round pick, and Moore falls a few picks down to a team that we’ve been begging to take on a real #2 wide receiver ”“ Green Bay. After Green Bay failed to pick up a wide receiver in free agency, they could really benefit from this solid rookie class. Likewise to Moore’s physique and playing style complementing AJ Brown, I think the same could be said about Moore lined up with Davante Adams. Moore could provide some much needed speed from the slot, while becoming a more full time #2 target for Aaron Rodgers.

Be sure to follow me on twitter (@FF_Engineer_), and if anyone from Underdog is reading this, please add Elijah Moore to the best ball system.

The post A Deeper Look into the Rookie Wide Receiver Class appeared first on Pro Football Mania.

Disclaimer: This article was published on April 3, 2021, so ADPs listed may not reflect current standings.

It’s April, and if you’re not doing a best ball draft, well you either like baseball, or you’re twiddling your thumbs. So for those of you getting in on the best ball action, I thought I’d break down some of my favorite late round best ball sleepers. After all, a winning best ball roster doesn’t just start the draft strong, but it finishes the draft strong too.

For the purpose of this article, I’ll be identifying some of the best late round options on the board. To do so, I’ll be utilizing the player’s current ADP according to Underdog. Every player I discuss will have an ADP above 180, meaning these players should be on your radar in rounds 16 through 18.

Donald Parham ”“ LAC, TE (ADP: 196.7)

With Hunter Henry out of the mix, Donald Parham may just be set up for a good year. We know Justin Herbert looks for his tight ends, as he managed to target Hunter Henry 93 times last season. Henry was also second on the team in targets only behind Keenan Allen. There’s also not a receiver on the depth chart (besides Allen) that could threaten the target share towards the tight end position. Parham’s talent and volume create the perfect value pick needed to complete your roster at the tight end position. And if you think the Chargers signing Jared Cook is a threat to Parham’s production, then you obviously didn’t watch Cook play last year.

Scotty Miller ”“ TB, WR (ADP: 210.4)

There’s an old adage in the best ball community, draft a WR3/WR4 on an elite offense over a WR1/WR2 on a low scoring, inefficient offense. The receiver on the inefficient offense can hold more value in season long fantasy because they can maintain a floor, but they won’t have nearly the ceiling, which is key to making it into your lineup in best ball. Which brings me to Scotty Miler, a current WR4 in a high caliber offense. We all know Tom Brady loves a good wide receiver out of a small college in Ohio, and he reiterated that with his 53 targets to Miller last season. Not to mention, if Antonio Brown doesn’t re-sign with Tampa Bay, it’s Miller Time.

Kadarius Toney ”“ FA, WR (ADP: 194.6)

People are often hesitant to take rookies in best ball drafts occurring before the NFL draft, which is why I prefer to load up on them. All but 7 of the 56 wide receivers with an ADP of 180 to 216 are projected to score less than 100 points next season, by Underdog’s metrics. Most of those 7 include players who were the beneficiary of their injured teammates last season, such as Tim Patrick or Rashard Higgins. Meanwhile, last year we saw 7 of the top 11 rookie wide receivers drafted in the NFL score over 128 fantasy points for the season. So yes, I’m chasing the ceiling and taking any rookie projected to be drafted as a top 12 receiver. And according to Mel Kiper’s current standings, he has Kadarius Toney ranked as the 4^th overall rookie wide receiver.

Trey Lance ”“ FA, QB (ADP: 196.4)

This rookie quarterback class is something else, and at a great time because there are some quarterback needy teams out there. Trey Lance is projected to be a top 5 quarterback in this class, and realistically he will be the 4^th or 5^th option off the board. So where could that leave him? Two options that are on the table are Carolina and Denver, both with a solid group of receivers for Lance to throw to. Obviously one outcome for Lance is that he sits on the bench behind someone for a year, but you’re also drafting the guy with one of your last 2 picks. Everyone else in that range is a dart throw ”“ Lance just has more upside than most. As it stands, there’s about one month left of getting these rookies at a discount because once their landing spots are known, their ADPs will certainly be on the rise.

Bryan Edwards ”“ LV, WR (ADP: 191.0)

I wish I could sit here and tell you how incredible Bryan Edwards’ rookie season was, but what I can tell you is that he’s a great late round flier. With Nelson Agholor moving on, a solid chunk of targets became available, and then Las Vegas signed John Brown. I wouldn’t be concerned enough based on how late you’d be taking Edwards anyway, but John Brown is more of a vertical threat, while Edwards can thrive more off of the short to intermediate range throws. Based on the draft capital they used on Ruggs and Edwards, along with the coach talk, it seems evident their focus will be on developing both receivers. And at the price I can get Edwards at, I would like to be on the year 2 break out train.

When I first began writing this article, I had Mike Boone listed in here. I regret to inform you that Boone’s ADP has shot up above 180, and technically doesn’t make the cut anymore. However, I think his value is still solid, and he’s by anyone’s definition a sleeper, so I figured I’d leave him here anyways.   

 Mike Boone ”“ DEN, RB (ADP: 168.5)

If you aren’t familiar with Mike Boone, then you probably don’t play DFS or watch enough NFL preseason. After being the third string running back in Minnesota, Boone has picked up a new deal in Denver. In a technical sense, at the current moment Boone is the third string back again, this time behind Melvin Gordon and Royce Freeman. Boone has the potential to very easily beat out Royce Freeman for the #2 role. Don’t believe me? Take a look at his highlights. This guy can play. Regardless, we’ve seen this offense host a committee at the running back position for years now, so I expect Boone to get a fair share of opportunities being the #2 or #3 guy. Right now, Boone’s ADP reflects him being the #3 guy, but his upside is far ahead of that. If he takes over as the #2, he will hold much more value and potential than any running back with an ADP above 140.

I plan to release more best ball value pieces throughout the off season as moves are made and ADPs fluctuate. As always you can find me on twitter (@FF_Engineer_), and in a Underdog draft lobby. Let me know who you’re taking with those late round best ball picks.

The post Late Round Best Ball Sleepers appeared first on Pro Football Mania.