Skyy Moore was the consensus rookie 1.08 in rookie drafts (single QB) coming into the year, ahead of a couple of players who’ve had more utility this year (rookie draft info per FantasyPros). He was a draft darling, balling out in the Group of Five Mid-American Conference. While Moore has yet to show that on the field, how should he be viewed from a long-term perspective? Let’s dive into what to do if you’re a Skyy Moore dynasty manager or an interested party looking to acquire him.

2022

Skyy Moore was the 13th WR taken in the 2022 NFL draft, but a combination of ability on the field with the ball and landing spot pushed him way up draft boards. I’ll be honest, I was guilty of it too, thinking him vs Chris Olave was a tough choice. Moore landed in Kansas City with the best QB in football and a questionable depth chart. So he should have had a big 2022, right?

While disappointing, I’m not as concerned about 2022 with Skyy Moore. It may be a bit of confirmation bias, but MAC to the NFL is a big jump. Most players going from a non-Power Five to the NFL will take adjustment, especially one who likely didn’t need to be perfect to get open. Heck, Davante Adams, now one of the great NFL WRs, took two full years to adjust before his year 3 breakout.

I’m not worried about Skyy Moore. The Chiefs built an offense with a clear deep threat, a possession WR, a gadget player, and an elite TE. They then added an explosive player at the deadline. I think Moore can help at all these spots, as he’s a strong athlete, can get open short deep. We’ve seen in short spurts that Moore is the Chiefs fill-in for the possession short-area target.

While still learning this year, the Chiefs have tried to incorporate Moore more as the year went along, including multiple 6 target weeks as the underneath option. One of those weeks even resulted in a WR36 overall finish in half-PPR leagues. There’s also plenty of additional room for growth within that role, as Juju Smith-Schuster has hit 8 or more targets in half of his 16 games. While not elite numbers, he did finish as WR28 on the year and that role has room for growth with a more explosive player like Moore.

2023

Of the six WRs seeing playing time in Kansas City, only three remain under contract beyond the current season. Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Kadarius Toney, and Skyy Moore. Juju Smith-Schuster, Mecole Hardman, and Justin Watson are all free agents after the year ends. These players, while important, are hardly the most important players due for new deals. If you want someone smarter about the WR position to tell you, check out the video below.

The Chiefs currently are slated to lose four of their five offensive tackles, including 2022 franchise player Orlando Brown. They project to have just $20M or so in cap space. They thought enough of Moore to pick him in the second round from a small school. I’m guessing he gets a shot in 2023 to prove he can ascend into a full-time role. The Chiefs need to allocate money towards the offensive line and extensions for some upcoming free agents.

Skyy Moore’s value

So what is the value of Skyy Moore dynasty shares? Not great. Since the preseason hype peaked his value as a top-30 WR on KeepTradeCut, the consensus view has fallen to just inside the top 60. At WR, not overall. Unless you’re a contender who needs help somewhere else he’s a hold for me, but I also understand the hesitancy. WRs who play as little as Moore has don’t typically hit in year 2.

The post Skyy Moore Dynasty Outlook Right Now appeared first on Pro Football Mania.

By: Justin Frye

Every year fantasy analysts project players and teams and fantasy managers draft teams and we get a consensus of ADP data that refines as draft season rolls along. Some players break out and shatter expectations while leading our teams to glory. Others struggle for various reasons. Those are the things we’re going to talk about here, with some potential takeaways for the rest of the 2022 and 2023 draft seasons.

TD Scoring Leaguewide

What is going on with the NFL, in general, this year? 2020 was the NFL’s current high water mark with 24.8 points per game scored. 2021 saw that decrease to 6th-best all-time with 23.0 points per game. 2022? That’d be down again, this time to 25th-best at 21.8 points per game. That ties 2022 with 1983 and 1967 for points in a game… bleh! Somehow 2022 has FEWER passing TDs than either of those seasons too. Teams scored 2.88 TDs per game in 2020 and now are at 2.43, so nearly a full TD less is scored in every NFL game.

Why is the league scoring down? That’d be the comeback of the two high-safety looks. Defenses are forcing underneath passes and less deep shots. This leads to longer drives and fewer overall drives. In a copycat league, everyone saw how Kansas City was slowed down and is implementing similar approaches. This in turn affects players blowing up for massive games, thereby capping the crazy weeks we love for fantasy football. Now it’s back to the drawing board for the offensive counterpunch (see Dolphins, Miami).

The Denver Broncos

Russell Wilson was supposed to be the answer in Denver like the Rams and Buccaneers got the last couple of seasons. Big-time acquisition who takes the team over the top in 2022. What’s happened so far has been horrible, as the Broncos have scored a whopping 11 TDs through their first 8 games. Fresh off the bye week, the hope is that some of the recent successful drives lead to a better understanding of what works.

While losing star RB Javonte Williams hasn’t helped, the Broncos have struggled to consistently move the football at all. Wilson started the year force-feeding Courtland Sutton but recently has found more success targeting teammate Jerry Jeudy and rookie TE Greg Dulcich. With new pass-catching RB Chase Edmonds in town, I expect more check downs from Wilson to his underneath targets with occasional jump balls to Sutton. I still believe it has to be better and hopes to see Wilson, Jeudy, and Dulcich on my teams when it does. The run game is a messy committee, and Sutton is likely just a boom/bust guy to me.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers

I remember when Tom Brady was retired, Chris Godwin was hurt and unlikely to play early in the year, and the entire offense was a big question mark. Then Brady unretired, Godwin started the year on the field, Julio Jones showed up in camp, and the whole offense looked to be elite. So what happened to a vaunted Buccaneers team and their fantasy weapons?

I look to two main statistics on the Bucs this year. First, Brady has a lowly 2.5% TD rate. That’s right, on his nearly 400 attempts he’s throw just 10 TDs. His first two years in Tampa were 6.6% and 6%, and he sits at 5.4% for his career. That means an additional 12-16 TDs for Brady and his weapons, which would make Mike Evans and Godwin managers much happier. Finally, Leonard Fournette may have lost that offseason weight but the burst didn’t come back with lower weight. It’d be nice to see more Rachaad White going forward.

Jonathan Taylor

Jonathan Taylor has to be a massive disappointment for managers, as the favorite for redraft 1.01 for the majority of analysts, has not lived up to his 2021 season. In retrospect, some of this should have been predictable, but also not to the extent of how poor he’s been. The OL has long been viewed as elite, and they got him a QB upgrade, where did it all go wrong?

Well, it starts with Matt Ryan being the most turnover-prone QB before being benched and a struggling OL unit. The team’s fired their OC and head coach now in response to the struggles, but some of this is on Taylor himself. In his RB1 2021, Taylor scored 18 TDs on his 332 carries (1 in every 18.5 carries), while averaging 5.5 yards per carry. In 2022? Just 1 rush TD on 107 carries, and 4.3 yards per carry. The TDs felt like an outlier in 2021, but now do the other way for 2022. Taylor is still dynasty RB1 for me until April 27, 2023 (hello Bijan Robinson), and probably a top 5 pick for redraft in 2023.

Kyle Pitts

The other individual player I chose to highlight here, Kyle Pitts is still a unicorn. He’s just a unicorn that’s costing whoever drafted him what likely would have been a solid RB2 or WR2. Dynasty managers have been panic selling. I can’t sit here and tell anyone he’s going to turn it around in 2022 or even hit for 2023. So what can we do with Kyle Pitts?

Cross everything we got hoping the Falcons get Pitts a competent QB for 2023, because with this underlying data, Pitts is still due to have a massive breakout soon. I won’t be joining those panic selling, but rather buying everywhere I possibly can. In 2022, it’s likely a lost cause but his weekly ceiling is as high as anyone at TE. I know he’s a hard guy to bench and will have doubters in 2023 but he’s likely to be right at TE3 in redraft ranks yet again, cause when he hits he’s going to hit big.

Year 2 WRs

Long undervalued, it appears as though 2022 was the year to fade a lot of second-year pass-catchers. I’m not talking the elite guys, as Ja’Marr Chase and Jaylen Waddle were fantastic picks when healthy. Devonta Smith has been roughly what we thought he’d be, though a little invisible in too many games. No for this I’m talking about Rashod Bateman, Elijah Moore, and Kadarius Toney.

Bateman is the toughest to count since he is mainly due to injury too. Of the three, he’s the only one you were ever happy to play this year. Moore has been one of my biggest whiffs (I thought he’d be the slot guy and target hog). He was one of my favorite values based on the elite play to end 2021. Still love his game and I hope he gets his trade, maybe to the Chargers? Finally Toney, who just can’t stay on the field and wasn’t loved by the new Giants regime. He could be exciting in Kansas City down the stretch, assuming the hamstrings hold up.

Back-half QB1s

I normally don’t lead with a Twitter link, but this visual is easier than typing it out. Other than Justin Herbert, the top seven QBs are all in the top seven. The bottom 8 are all outside the top 20. As someone who likes waiting on QB, this year was not my friend, and will be a changing of the guard for many rankers. Even “safe” options like Kirk Cousins and Derek Carr have been largely disappointing, while Trey Lance was lost due to injury.

I don’t agree with Luke’s sentiment fully (yet), but this is definitely something to consider. As guys like Tua Tagovailoa and Justin Fields rocket up ranks, I think it’s just a swap from the “this guy is always top 12 so he needs to be in there” to the young studs. It takes truly elite QB play to overcome not being a mobile QB. My biggest takeaway, regardless of where I pick a QB for 2023, the safety of a mobile QB is worth it every single time. Guys like Fields, Lance, and Bryce Young will be big targets for me.

The post 7 Fantasy Disappointments in 2022 appeared first on Pro Football Mania.

By: Justin Frye

Dynasty leagues can be won and lost through savvy maneuvering at the flex spots. As a competitive team, boring vets can be highly valuable flex options that won’t break the bank. In a rebuild, trading those guys to chase upside while bottoming out for a high pick is a smart choice. So who are some players to target for flex options in a dynasty league?

Michael Gallup, WR, Dallas Cowboys

Starting the column off with an injured WR is not ideal, but this is how I’m hunting value. Michael Gallup is getting closer and closer to making his 2022 debut off the torn ACL that ended his 2021. Just in time for a Cowboys offense in desperate need of playmakers. CeeDee Lamb has yet to truly take over as an alpha, and the next highest valued player is a rookie who hasn’t been dressed for a game yet.

Gallup struggled as a young player in the top role, but I’m interested in him now with a veteran QB and Lamb there. After that struggle from Gallup, the Cowboys added Amari Cooper. Cooper finished his three full years in Dallas as WR10, WR15, and WR27. The last two were with both Gallup and Lamb as teammates. With Lamb playing his same slot role, Gallup has upside to grow into the Cooper role and be a top 20 guy.

Who are some other solid flex options at WR that I’d target? Jakobi Meyers just continues to beat anyone in his way in Foxboro and will put up numbers. Allen Lazard is the de facto alpha in Green Bay, and showed to end 2021 what that means by being top 20 WR over the final 5 weeks. Curtis Samuel is healthy again and being used similarly to 2020 when he finished top 25 at WR.

Rhamondre Stevenson, RB, New England Patriots

If targeting flex play RBs, Rhamondre Stevenson is just a prototype of the player I’m after, but he’s a smart buy. Starter Damien Harris is still the top guy in Foxboro, but he’s a free agent at the end of the year. The Patriots don’t pay for past performance, and spent picks on two rookie RBs in the 2022 NFL draft. I don’t see Harris back, which means Stevenson ascends into the role.

Additionally, Stevenson has a solid playable role this season. He is not likely to be consistent but can give you a multiple TD week any given week and has a top 15 or higher upside should Harris go down. As for 2023, it’s likely to be wheels up on his stock and will be viewed as a top 20 guy. While the WRs and TEs I’m selling as a contender, these RB types need to be held until they hit that higher level then sold off.

Who are similar RBs I’d target with similar long-term upside? Tony Pollard in Dallas, while he’s a free agent at season’s end, I love what he’s shown on the field and Ezekiel Elliot could be cut this offseason. Brian Robinson hasn’t played yet, so the unknown in Washington presents upside to push Antonio Gibson out the door for good. Rachaad White is Stevenson just one year earlier, as Fournette is likely there until the 2024 offseason. Khalil Herbert is Stevenson but with a lesser 2022 role and potentially returning starter ahead of him next year.

Tyler Higbee, TE, Los Angeles Rams

I’ll be honest, I missed on Tyler Higbee for 2022. I wasn’t interested and thought he’d be at best the 3rd option in a balanced offense with an injured QB. Through two weeks though, the running game is a mess and Higbee is the second option in LA. If he continues to hold off Allen Robinson, he’ll be a viable flex for rosters, especially in any TE premium (TEP) leagues.

Even for cheap DFS, he’s labeled as gross despite leading the position in targets. He is only still as cheap as he is because of the lack of TDs, which is not a sticky stat. In his two games, he’s seen three red zone targets, which is second at TE. If the usage remains he’s a likely top six TE this year, which plays in your flex even non-TEP leagues.

Who are some other solid flex options at TE that I’d target? Gerald Everett for the Chargers has been busy at TE as well, and is tied to Justin Herbert for 2023 as well. Tyler Conklin is running a nearly full-time role for a Jets team playing a ton on offense, which is a good indicator that the stats could follow. Deepest cut option is Juwan Johnson in New Orleans, who’s a TE on multiple platforms and has taken the top TE option from Adam Trautman and can put up a few points with TD upside.

Wan’Dale Robinson, WR, New York Giants

This is where we’ll speculate on some guys who are still unknown and have potentially fruitful roles in late 2022 and beyond. Sterling Shepard is currently the top option for the Giants, after taking a pay cut to return from an injury in 2021. Enter rookie Wan’Dale Robinson, the only WR the Giants regime has much invested in having taken him early in round 2 of the 2022 draft.

Rookie in an offense without a true alpha target hog and a coach who’s willing to showcase talented players? Sign me up for that. Add in the injury discount that he likely carries, and I’m buying regardless of contender or rebuilding, offering a healthy middling flex type like discussed above even, if I need the upside shot. He played RB and WR in college and might see some Deebo Samuel-type role.

Who are some other upside young flex options at WR that I’d target? Skyy Moore tops the list, tied to the best QB in football, and no pass catchers standing out there yet. Tyquan Thornton is nearly a copy-paste of Robinson’s write-up, but Meyers is better than Shepard. Romeo Doubs blew up camp but has stumbled through two weeks, but expect a breakout soon. Rondale Moore isn’t a rookie but Greg Dortch is playing his role and is a playable flex with less athleticism.

Conclusion

Who I target depends on the situation. With a rebuild I’m after the RBs or younger WRs, as a competitive team with strong starters I might chase cheaper options at WR or TE. Obviously, know where you’re weaker and stronger and add to those weaknesses to make a more well-rounded roster. I gave lots of options, and while I like the main person in each group best, I’m not overpaying for them over others I discussed, so do some shopping and know the easier managers to deal with! Best of luck!

The post Dynasty flex sleepers right now appeared first on Pro Football Mania.

2021 was a breakout season for Mike Williams, but what does 2022 and beyond look like? Let’s walk through his situation and what his outlook is, starting by reliving last year. Williams finished as a top 12 fantasy WR in 2021 in half PPR scoring. It was a little Jekyll and Hyde situation though, as Williams was the WR3 going into the Chargers week 7 bye, and just WR29 afterwards. Which is the real one?

Contract Status

Let’s start with Williams’ contract status. Scheduled to become a free agent this past offseason, he chose to return to the Chargers on a new 3-year, $60M contract. The deal guarantees the receiver a cool $40M over the first two years, and he’ll likely either be extended or cut before year three.

That’s fantastic news for Williams’ outlook, as he’s locked into the top role on an offense with an elite young QB and an aggressive analytical head coach. Assuming Williams can stay healthy, there’s no reason to expect much to change from last season. Expect some volatility, but massive weekly upside, which is par for the course with most top WRs.

Change in Usage

Williams saw a huge swing in utilization from 2020 to 2021. Going into last season, he was primarily viewed as a deep threat and red zone guy. A new OC, Joe Lombardi, came from New Orleans and put his into the X WR role that some guy named Michael Thomas thrived in for years. As a result, his average depth of target dropped dramatically and 39 more targets than his previous high.

I don’t have a true explanation for what happened as the season went along, but even after “struggling” down the stretch last year, everything from the tweet above has me excited for the future. Plus, Williams is nearly three years younger than teammate and target hog Keenan Allen. As Allen plays over 30 years old, his production will decline and Justin Herbert will rely on Williams more.

Here’s the best explanation out there. A late game injury led to a down 5-week stretch with several poor finishes. Once the injury started feeling better, he bounced back to WR18 over the final eight games. While not utilized at the same high level as early in the year, he was still a top-end WR2. It’ll be fun to see how he continues in 2022.

Projecting Forward

Now that we’ve covered the background, what does this mean for the present and future? Williams has a wide weekly range of outcomes but is tied into an elite offense and a big-time role in it. That is exactly the type of WR2 you should want on your rosters. Throw in an aging Keenan Allen and it only makes me more excited for the next few years with Mike Williams.

In 2022 and going forward, not only did Williams come back, but the other teams loaded up in their division. Expect shootouts, and with an aggressive head coach, a lot of touchdowns. He’s due for a bump in targets and is a near lock for double-digit touchdowns the next few seasons. With the addition of JC Jackson from New England, he’s been practicing against elite coverage and getting better.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see 140 or so targets to Williams for the next few years, 80-85 catches, 1200-1300 yards, and 8-12 touchdowns. That rough projection would equate to the WR8 or so last season. A WR1 if needed, but I’d rather him as my second guy. I love him going forward, and will definitely try to get him after writing this.

Conclusion

Unless in a multi-year rebuild, I’m not looking to trade away Williams. I would try to acquire him though, especially as a contender. KTC has Williams as WR31, behind Jerry Jeudy and George Pickens. Jeudy has yet to finish above WR44 on a year, and Pickens hasn’t played a regular season game. As a contender, give me Williams all day and enjoy taking down a title in your dynasty league this year.

The post Mike Williams’s dynasty outlook right now appeared first on Pro Football Mania.

By: Justin Frye

One of 2021’s biggest surprises was the Hunter Renfrow breakout. With struggling receivers on the outside and TE Darren Waller battling through injuries, Renfrow stepped up and became Derek Carr‘s favorite option. Despite the top thirteen finish at receiver, Renfrow is currently viewed as outside the top 36 options. Is that low ranking justified or is he a strong buy-low option?

Coaching Change

One big change, which isn’t being accounted for enough in his value, is the hiring of Josh McDaniels. The Patriots’ system, where he came from, has had prolific slot receivers for years. If Renfrow continues in the same mold as Wes Welker and Julian Edelman, he’s vastly underrated and should be viewed as a WR2 type.

Looking back through Patriot seasons, it’s hard to find apples-to-apples comparisons. Unfortunately, Randy Moss, Welker, and Rob Gronkowski all played together, as Gronkowski joined the year Moss left. The fewest targets a healthy Patriots slot WR saw since 2010 is 86, to Danny Amendola when playing with Brandin Cooks and Gronkowski. So that is the absolute floor, health permitting.

That undersells the targets though, which routinely hit 130+ in those seasons. The Patriots were aware of Amendola succumbing to injuries often and minimized his usage to protect him for the playoffs, especially with Julian Edelman already out. I believe a better comparison is out there though. Let’s look at the 2013 season. In 2013, the Patriots had four primary targets: Edelman (134 targets), Gronkowski (131), Brandon LaFell (119), and Shane Vereen (77).

Increased Target Competition?

I brought up the difficulty in finding a Patriot comparison because the Raiders no longer have just Renfrow and Waller, they made a huge offseason addition. Davante Adams is now in Las Vegas, reunited with his Fresno St running mate in Carr, and is clearly the team’s new alpha. Adams has seen at least 127 targets in each of the last four seasons, and that low was in only 12 games.

It’s unlikely the Raiders have two players still mentioned in the above tweet after the 2022 season. Which is bad news for Renfrow because those targets aren’t coming from Adams. What it does mean is that Renfrow is likely to see a lot less coverage, as teams are going to have to roll safeties towards Adams and Waller. So I’m expecting more efficiency in 2022, though less scoring.

The 2022 offense

I want to circle back now to the 2013 Patriots. While this is the closest comparison, I still think it’s flawed. For one, while Josh Jacobs has shown an ability to catch passes before, I don’t think he’ll be used that way (again). McDaniels prefers sharing the load, so likely a combination of Jacobs, Kenyan Drake, and possibly Zamir White split backfield touches.

With less short-area target competition, this bodes well for Renfrow. Waller and Adams are both vertical threats to challenge defenses. So were Gronkowski and Moss. Renfrow is likely to be the open-off-the-line guy Carr targets to move the chains and when he sees a blitz or free rusher coming. Which is likely to be a lot with all the pass rushing in the AFC West.

That’s to say nothing of the current offensive line situation. It’s gross and unlikely to improve drastically. The way McDaniels calls plays to combat this? Get it out quick to the open slot WR. It’s why Edelman saw so many targets later in his career. I expect similar from Renfrow this year.

Long Term Outlook

Darren Waller and Davante Adams both turn 30 in the season, while Renfrow will only hit 27. This gives him his prime years with Carr as his QB and likely a slot-friendly scheme for at least his next two years. He’s shown adept at collecting targets, including the red zone. His role can grow too, as both Waller and Adams have injury histories that only get worse with age.

In any PPR leagues, I think I’m comfortable with Renfrow as my WR2 or 3, likely paired with a higher variance player like a Terry McLaurin or Drake London. He’ll never be highly sought after, but is going to be a steady contributor to whoever manages him. As a contender, he’s someone I absolutely want on my team. I think now is the time to buy before people see him pop in the system.

The post Hunter Renfrow’s dynasty outlook right now appeared first on Pro Football Mania.

By: Justin Frye

Jerry Jeudy, despite being a disappointment from a results standpoint, is still viewed extremely favorably by the dynasty community. In his 26 games, Jeudy’s produced just 90 catches, just over 1,300 yards, and just 3 TDs (all as a rookie). This is similar to a typical DJ Moore season but in 9 extra games. So is it just take lock, or does the dynasty community have it right?

Coaching Change

The first place to look with Jeudy in 2022 is the head coach. Vic Fangio is out and in is offensive-minded Nathaniel Hackett. That move alone inspires confidence. Over the last few seasons, Hackett has worked in Green Bay to build a strong balanced offense. In his three seasons there, the Packers finished 15th, 1st, and 10th in points per game, averaging at least 23.5. The best team under Fangio was at 20.2 and hasn’t been better than 23rd in points.

Hackett prefers the pass more than Fangio did, as the Packers bested the Broncos in pass attempts in two of their three seasons in their previous roles. Fangio liked to run the ball and play defense to protect middling (at best) QB play. Hackett didn’t have the same issue with Aaron Rodgers in town. Unfortunately, Rodgers stayed in Green Bay and left Hackett scrambling to improve his QB play in Denver…

QB Upgrade

Enter Russell Wilson, the Broncos biggest offseason addition since Peyton Manning. Wilson seems primed to explode this year after wasting away in a conservative offense his entire career. If he does, expect multiple pass catchers to follow suit, with Jeudy being a popular pick.

Wilson loves to push it downfield but hasn’t had a true possession receiver since Doug Baldwin retired. In his peak years, Baldwin saw around 120 targets per season in the Seattle run-first offense, catching about 80 passes per season for over 1,000 yards and 9 touchdowns. Jeudy already earned 113 targets as a rookie, and likely would’ve again in 2021 if not for a bad high ankle sprain.

The Talent

As a reminder of how Broncos brass sees Jeudy, they drafted him over CeeDee Lamb, Justin Jefferson, and Brandon Aiyuk. Many in the dynasty community followed suit and took him (or Lamb) as the first or second WR in rookie drafts. Managers might be getting tired and worried about him. I get it, if he doesn’t perform this year expect his value to fall off.

People are quick to forget how good Jeudy was as a prospect though. Jax is such a great prospect evaluator, and I absolutely love the Stefon Diggs comp and still am excited about it. Diggs’ first two seasons aren’t all that dissimilar from Jeudy’s. Diggs had some solid seasons for a few years after that, kind of up and down though. Then he was traded to Buffalo…

What happened when Diggs got a massive QB and scheme upgrade with the Bills? First team an all-pro year of 127 catches, 1,535 yards, and 8 touchdowns. Now don’t get it twisted, this is unlikely as the talent around Jeudy is much better, but Diggs baseline is around 100 catches, 1,100 yards, and 6 touchdowns. Same with a healthy and playing Calvin Ridley. This could be the year Jeudy joins them.

What To Do With Jerry Jeudy?

Look I just sang his praises and absolutely think Jeudy has a shot to break out in a huge way this year. I want to say buy him, but the price on him really hasn’t dropped enough. He’s a tough sell too, as so many pieces valued similarly are other young potential breakouts.

It’s not a clear-cut buy or sell, I think I’d hold out to see if the other manager in a deal has a different valuation than the group, then try to take advantage. If firmly in win-now mode, think obtaining a Mike Evans or Mike Williams in a deal is possible, and it’s hard to pass on WR1 production.

The post Jerry Jeudy’s dynasty outlook right now appeared first on Pro Football Mania.

By: Justin Frye

Pitts is nearly universally lauded as the top tight end in dynasty fantasy football. Matt Ryan leaving for Indianapolis and adding Marcus Mariota (or maybe Desmond Ridder) and target competition in Drake London seems to be alarming to some. Let’s dive into the changes in Atlanta and whether or not anything should worry you.

The end of an era

If I had to choose a concern, Ryan leaving would be the thing that bothers me most for Pitts’ future. Not because of Mariota, or even Ridder, but just how hard it is to find long-term stability at QB. Ryan has never been considered as one of the truly elite QBs in the league but has been well above average for a long time. His lack of rushing helps his pass-catchers see more volume than the mobile QBs.

The stats above tell all. Pitts shattered nearly all expectations as a rookie, actually living up to the crazy hype he had. At a position where players are supposed to struggle to adjust to the NFL level, no less. Ryan lost projected top target Calvin Ridley early in the season and leaned on the rookie to move the offense. The only area where Pitts fell short? One single touchdown last year.

For simplicity, we’ll assume Mariota starts for Atlanta, though not sure it matters. Ridder and Mariota are so similar, the only unknown is how Ridder plays in the system. Mariota has worked with Arthur Smith in Tennessee before, so he understands the offense already and has Pitts returning as the top target in the offense.

Mariota has a history of targeting his TEs at a high level and having success doing so. Delanie Walker, his TE target in Tennessee, finished as a top 6 option in each of the three seasons referenced in the tweet above. Those were three of Walker’s four top fantasy seasons and led to all three of his Pro Bowl appearances. Mariota also saw a huge drop-off when Walker got hurt in 2018.

The biggest concern is a familiar one, lack of touchdowns. Walker averaged just over five touchdowns in those three seasons, with a low of three. That could easily limit his ceiling from being the top TE in 2022, but the targets staying in the 120 range will keep him a top-five option.

The long-term concern is constant churn at QB. Mariota and Ridder are fine this year, but if the Falcons struggle you could be looking at another rookie in 2023’s loaded class. Pitts would still be young but any wasted years into the future where he isn’t likely to be the top option makes Mark Andrews closer to Pitts value from a long-term perspective.

Target Competition?

In 2021, Pitts was third on the team at just under 6.5 targets per game, trailing Calvin Ridley (10.4) in his 5 games and Russell Gage (6.7) in his 14. Neither are on the team for 2022, and the only significant addition is rookie Drake London. As a rookie, London is unlikely to see over 120 targets. Pitts is set up to lead the team in targets in 2022, a strong sign for his overall production.

From a long-term view, London isn’t the type of underneath target hog that will limit targets to other options and had questions about his athleticism. As such, Pitts is likely to get the downfield higher-value targets, leading to better value.

Dynasty TE1

With all of the above, the simple answer is Pitts is still the clear TE1 in fantasy. If looking to go all in, I’d be willing to trade him for Mark Andrews plus, but that’s it. Pitts looks like a locked and loaded top 5 yearly play for a while. He’s a first-round startup pick in the vast majority of league formats. If the current manager has any Mariota concerns, BUY NOW! Enjoy the positional advantage!

The post What is Kyle Pitts’s dynasty outlook? appeared first on Pro Football Mania.

By: Justin Frye

Five years and five RB1 seasons is an overly impressive way to start a career. Alvin Kamara has been absolutely elite for his managers. He comes into 2022 with a few more questions this year. Jameis Winston returning is great news after showing a rapport early last season. Age, off-the-field questions, and a coaching change lead to even more ambiguity in Kamara’s overall value. Let’s dive into what to do with Alvin Kamara.

Will Alvin Kamara miss time in 2022?

I’d be remiss if I didn’t start off the article with the fact that Kamara and some friends allegedly beat a man the night before the Pro Bowl in Las Vegas earlier this year. I’m not a lawyer, so see the tweet from Drew Davenport below on the whole situation.

Drew mentions the 25th of April in his video, which unfortunately came and went without any action except to delay this hearing until August. As Drew said, any video leak will be terrible news for Kamara’s playing potential in 2022. The NFL likely learned from what happened with Kareem Hunt and that video leaking, so I expect a much harsher penalty to avoid going back to fix their mistake later. Bottom line, unless someone offers you fair value, I think holding is the smartest move until he sees the field again, but also can understand getting whatever you can and getting rid of him.

What does 2021 mean for Kamara’s future?

When on the field, Kamara has been an elite RB for the Saints team. He’s been relatively durable throughout his career and has been top twelve in fantasy points on a per-game basis every season of his career. The return of Mark Ingram didn’t hurt Kamara in the stat sheet, as he only got some extra rest. The bigger concern is the return of Michael Thomas and the high draft pick they’re likely about to add.

2021 saw Alvin Kamara lead his team in targets on a per-game basis. That was helped out by the overall lack of receiving talent on the outside, as Michael Thomas was unable to return from ankle surgery and none of the secondary targets stepped up to help the rotation of QBs the Saints trotted out. With both, Thomas and Winston expected to be ready for week one and the Saints owning multiple first-round picks in a deep WR draft, I’d expect Kamara to see less usage in 2022.

Other changes in the big easy

The Saints coaching staff on offense has a good deal of continuity, with the exception of the top dog. Sean Payton stepped down, and OC Pete Carmichael will be taking on play-calling duties. While the continuity is likely good for the team as a whole, Carmichael obviously doesn’t have the in-game experience calling plays Payton did, making this a bit of a wild card and likely step down for the offense.

The other “change” to highlight is just normal aging. As Dave Kluge tweeted in my top link, no RB at age 26 or higher has been top 5 since 2016. RBs are getting used up young and phased out. Kamara is the archetype to buck that trend, but it’s still a risk. Like Shady McCoy, he’s a smaller, shiftier back who isn’t a between the tackle grinder and does significant work in the passing game. If you asked me to bet on RBs off that list, those types are who I’d take (Aaron Jones and Austin Ekeler pop out to me too).

Conclusion

In summary, I do still think Kamara has multiple solid years left in him. Backs who are prolific in the pass game age better and more gracefully than bell-cow grinders do. I’m holding him right now no matter what, unless I get the RB1 type return for him. As a contender, definitely worth keeping, and hope any missed time happens before the fantasy playoffs. If I’m rebuilding, I’ll hold until more clarity is gained and any suspension might be served, as his value is bound to be higher when he’s back putting up top ten numbers on a per-game basis.

The post Alvin Kamara’s Dynasty Outlook appeared first on Pro Football Mania.

By: Justin Frye

2019 was, so far, Courtland Sutton’s banner year in the NFL. In that year, he put up 72 catches, 1,112 yards, and 6 touchdowns in his 16 games. This with him catching passes from the likes of Joe Flacco and rookie year Drew Lock. In case you’re living under a rock, the Broncos and Seahawks agreed to a deal where Russell Wilson is going to be the Denver QB in 2022 and beyond.

Russell Wilson’s history with receivers

Over the last four seasons, Wilson has supported five top 24 finishes in fantasy points per game at the receiver position. This is despite up and down in season performances and an overall lack of passing volume. In each of his last five seasons, Seattle has been below 35 pass attempts on a per-game basis, including multiple seasons below 30. That Wilson has been able to sustain viable fantasy options is remarkable.

The Packers, where new Broncos Head Coach Nathaniel Hackett was Offensive Coordinator the last three seasons, were slightly higher than that, between 34.5 and 35.5 per game in his 3 years. While he wasn’t calling plays, Hackett was deeply involved and those tendencies are likely to be similar in Denver. Projecting that pass volume onto Wilson is exciting, as in his best year he only attempted 558 passes, which should be about where 2022 winds up.

Comparing team situations

In 2021, Sutton spent the offseason continuing his rehab from the ACL tear he suffered in his first game in 2020. Players are not usually fully recovered until closer to two years out per most medical experts. Projecting him back into the 2019 role he had is unrealistic, though, as Jerry Jeudy was drafted that offseason and Tim Patrick and Albert Okwuegbunam have both shown ability when targeted as well.

Everyone seems to be comparing Wilson’s old teammates to his new ones, and that’s a fair start but not the same. D.K. Metcalf is an athletic freak, and while Sutton is his best comparable, it’s not apples to apples. Same with Tyler Lockett to Jeudy. Wilson mainly had two guys in Seattle to target, in Denver he’s got five including RB Javonte Williams. Metcalf and Lockett saw 27% and 24% target shares in 2021, while Jeudy led Denver at 20% (in 10 games).

In 2021 for Denver, Sutton was their deep threat, averaging 15.4 yards depth of target (aDOT). Interestingly, Lockett was Wilson’s deep threat at an aDOT of 14.6. Metcalf had more targets than any other Seahawk or Bronco at 129, with an aDOT of 12.7. Looking at these, it’s a little unclear how Wilson will use his new weapons, but I imagine Sutton will see similar target volume in 2022 to 2021, just of a higher quality.

Sutton, due to the depth of his targets, sat 12th in air yards in 2021, trailing both Lockett (11th) and Metcalf (7th). Assuming he’s still used in that downfield role, I expect significant yardage and touchdown growth in 2022. Sutton ranks fifth in playerprofiler.com unrealized air yards metic with 892. Metcalf is first with 902, but on a whopping 31 additional targets. I attribute that inefficiency to a difference in QB play that will change in 2022.

What does all this mean for Sutton in 2022 and beyond?

I expect career highs in yardage and touchdowns in 2022 from both Jeudy and Sutton, and a strong overall Broncos offense. I don’t think either Jeudy or Sutton’s comparisons to either of the Seattle receivers are fair, as play wise “Sutton is closer to Lockett and Jeudy to Metcalf” in how they’re used.

If I’m picking a comparison, I like 2016 Seattle with Jeudy in the Doug Baldwin role while Sutton plays a hybrid from old Jimmy Graham and newer D.K. Metcalf. Jeudy will average an extra target on Sutton, but Sutton will have the downfield and red zone roles. So what type of stats seem likely?

110 targets, 65-70 catches, 1000-1100 yards, and probably 8 or so touchdowns, for the next few seasons. If he really connects in the red zone, could easily bump up to 12. That puts him squarely in line with Mike Williams 2021, with a ceiling of Mike Evans. Top 24 dynasty WR going forward, and a rock solid weekly WR2 with upside.

The post The dynasty outlook of Courtland Sutton after the Russell Wilson trade appeared first on Pro Football Mania.

By: Justin Frye

To me, easily the biggest Terry McLaurin question of the offseason is whether the Washington Footb… Commanders can find a better option to get McLaurin the ball in 2022 and hopefully beyond. The talent and opportunity are all there for him to succeed with competent QB play.

What are the Commanders likely to do at QB?

Let’s start by looking at the options available. While free agency is thought to be underwhelming, there are a couple of interesting names there. The Commanders reportedly tried in the 2021 season to acquire then Bill backup QB Mitchell Trubisky. People might scoff at that being an upgrade from Taylor Heinicke, but the former second overall pick has guided multiple playoff teams and made a Pro Bowl appearance. It appears like many of the issues in Chicago were tied to former coach Matt Nagy, and I’m not writing Trubisky off yet.

I’m not sure how the Commanders feel about former top two picks Jameis Winston or Marcus Mariota, but they’re the other two big prizes of the QB class. Both have shown the tendency in the past to hyper-target their top receiver, which would keep McLaurin in the top 15 conversations again. These might be the top options they can get, as Russell Wilson, Derek Carr, and Kirk Cousins all feel unlikely to move. Trading for Deshaun Watson with the allegations against owner Daniel Snyder seems irresponsible.

The Commanders could try and trade for Jimmy Garoppolo and solidify the most important spot for the short term as well. Garoppolo is likely to be moved to open a spot for Trey Lance, but I’d expect him to prefer other teams with his no-trade clause. He’s a solid QB, but I’m unsure if he’s an improvement over the free agency options for McLaurin’s value.

None of the above moves preclude the Commanders drafting a QB though, who could grow with McLaurin in the league and learn to hyper-target his best playmaker. Former Ole Miss QB Matt Corral would be a strong fit with his athleticism and high ceiling, especially with the opportunity to sit a season. Whatever they do, expect more stability in 2022 and moving forward, which has to be a welcome change.

What if the Commanders add target competition?

Terry McLaurin has been the only show in town at receiver since debuting in Washington. They drafted Dyami Brown last year who didn’t have a ton of impact but showed flashes, and signed Curtis Samuel who couldn’t stay healthy in 2021. With these two back, there’s a shot the Commanders add at the position but it shouldn’t be a premier player who would take the top role.

Even if they added an Allen Robinson or Mike Williams type in free agency, that is likely to only help McLaurin. Any loss in targets is going to be offset by increased efficiency. More target competition will make it harder to double team anyone, and shifting attention away can only help.

So what does all this mean for Terry McLaurin?

In his first three seasons, McLaurin has finished within the 20s at WR in fantasy every season. This with a group of uninspiring QBs targeting him. The reports are out there that Washington’s top offseason priority is to upgrade the position. Whoever is there, hopefully, the Commanders find consistency over the next few seasons during the prime years of McLaurin’s career.

Based on the expected target volume, I’d feel really comfortable with him as my second WR on my roster, as his weekly upside is elite but the consistency has been a struggle. As a contender, I’d be seeking out McLaurin now before the QB upgrade comes and the price inevitably goes up. If I’m rebuilding, I would be willing to sell for younger pieces once the QB spot is fixed.

Players who see the opportunity McLaurin has over the last few seasons tend to pop at some point. Look at the WOPR tweet, players with strong QB play are the elite WRs and the ones who struggled have middling to poor QB situations. Go buy the dip now before his situation improves and he jumps up into the top 10 if you believe the Commanders fix their QB play.

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