By: Jesse Moeller

I cannot believe we are already closer to the NFL scouting combine than we are to week 1. It shows you how fast time flies, and in a dynasty, time is money. I wanted to look back at how numerous big-name running backs see if they were worth the investment. Did my views on running back values in dynasty change, and how do I expect the market to adjust moving forward. Boiled down to the nuts and bolts, was it the proper process and bad luck or a flawed process that led to subpar results.

For this article, I will use 1QB dynasty ADP and values presented by DLF. We will go back in August. When player and pick values begin to switch in dynasty teams’ minds. The worry about roster construction can be eye-opening when the preseason hits, you see players live, and each team focuses on starting lineups. If you are looking for a fantastic representation of that, look no further than the dynasty value chart created by @ekballer. he does a remarkable job of highlighting the change in dynasty managers’ minds throughout the year.

Running Back Values

So let us dive into the first two rounds of 1QB startup picks, review the running backs selected, and compare the current dynasty values for each player. I chose the first two rounds because this gave us the top 12 running backs or the RB1’s of the position. The top 12 is the bread and butter, where difference-making fantasy production occurs. If your team does not have one, you are likely frantically scrambling to find one. (Shoutout to the Zero-RB teams that are slaying leagues right now.)

Round 1

1.01 – Christian McCaffery RB1 —> 1.08 RB5

1.02 – Jonathon Taylor RB2 —> 1.02 RB1

1.03 – Dalvin Cook RB3 —> 1.07 RB4

1.05 – Saquon Barkley RB4 —> 2.01 RB13

1.06 – Alvin Kamara RB5 —> 2.02 RB14

1.10 – Najee Harris RB6 —> 1.04 RB2

1.11 – Derrick Henry RB7 —> 3.07 RB15

Round 2

2.01 – Nick Chubb RB8 —> 2.08 RB10

2.03 – Antonio Gibson RB9 —> 3.02 RB13

2.05 – Ezekiel Elliot RB10 —> 2.09 RB11

2.07 – D’Andre Swift RB11 —> 1.05 RB3

2.09 – Clyde Edwards-Helaire RB12 -> 4.04 RB17

2.10 – Aaron Jones RB12 —> 2.07 RB9

Only a quarter of the running backs in the first two rounds have held or gained value this season. Many factors go into a player’s worth, but two noticeable trends are happening with running back values. First, the youth movement is upon us. The “old” guard of Christian McCaffery, Dalvin Cook, Alvin Kamara, and Saquon Barkley have yielded the top spots in dynasty to the next generation of running backs in Jonathon Taylor, Najee Harris, and D’Andre Swift. We also have Antonio Gibson, Javonte Williams, J.K. Dobbins, and Cam Akers kicking down the door to join the top 12 dynasty running backs. Second, are the number of injuries to the position. This season has hit running backs especially hard.

McCaffery, Cook, Henry, Barkley, Gibson, Elliot, Edwards-Helaire, have all missed significant time or been limited by notable injuries. We all know the position takes a beating, as running backs take blows on every play, and if you are a lead back, the pounding throughout a game and season adds up. It should come as no surprise to see that a running back’s career is shorter than other offensive skill positions. We have had numerous players left for dead in dynasty circles only to come back and play a vital role this season. James Conner, Leonard Fournette, Cordarrelle Patterson, and DeVonta Freeman are integral parts of dynasty teams pushing for a championship this season. The fascinating aspect will be to see the values of each player fall off of a cliff once the season ends. If you have these players on non-contending teams, I have to ask you one question, why? What value do they give you, as the clock is ticking on their dynasty value. Once the season ends, the dynasty value becomes a falling knife that you do not want to be the one to catch it.

Production vs. Value

Each year always presents a challenging decision with dynasty values going into a season. No position is more fragile than post-apex running backs, particularly the vaunted 2017 running back class. I wanted to focus on this group of (McCaffery, Cook, Kamara, Jones, Ekeler, Mixon, Carson, Hunt, and Fournette) in particular. Since entering the league, this group has produced 39% (19 of 48) of the RB1 seasons. A genuinely legendary running back class, but father time always wins out. You should ask yourself what the right move is? Do you prefer to move off the group a year early and get that expected value bump or ride out the production and take the hit to the players’ value? There was no correct answer, but the longer you hold these aging players, the harder it will be to move off of them for what teams deem fair value, which is why they are considered a falling knife in the dynasty circles. Try and trade McCaffery for the equivalent of a top-five running back, and you will find yourself striking out more often than not. Meanwhile, Javonte Williams, a player who has averaged 12 points per game his rookie year, is currently being valued as a top-five running back in dynasty.

So, what do you do with the group now? It is very team dependant given that we are entering the playoffs, and these veterans are the players you need to win a championship. If you missed out on the playoffs, I would send one of these players to a contender ASAP. The pressure of winning a championship will propel these teams to pay more than they will this coming offseason. Depending on the player’s value, they are regimented into tiers. I will go over the current value of each player in the ranks. Remember, we are using 1QB values, and these values and suggestions give you a foundation to start your trade negotiations. If you find players you prefer, absolutely go with what you view as your team’s best decision.

The King

Christian McCaffery #9: While Taylor has usurped Mccaffery as thee RB1, he still has incredible dynasty value. Currently, on DLF, CMC is the 7th highest-ranked player, and there are only the big three players above him in a separate tier that consists of Jonathon Taylor, Ja’Marr Chase, and Justin Jefferson. Everyone else should be on the table, as you can go, elite veteran or young prodigy. McCaffery’s name has serious cache attached to it, as he is one of the authentic difference-making fantasy assets. Leave no stone unturned, and look for the best offer. You will likely find a manager who still values McCaffery as the end-all-be-all fantasy player.

The Prince

Dalvin Cook #16: Cook checks in at the top of this tier. If you watched the Thursday Night performance, you could see why fantasy managers hold him to such high standards. Only a handful of running backs can compete with Cook when he is on his game. Unfortunately, the value has taken a hit this year due to a drop in production and the nagging injury concerns. Add in revelations of a domestic dispute, and it only further clouds Cook’s dynasty outlook. Cook is one player I am looking to move ASAP to a contender and would even take a value hit to do it. It will likely be easier to pivot to a WR like Kupp, Deebo, or Godwin. If you prefer RB, check-in on Joe Mixon, Javonte Williams, or Antonio Gibson.

Alvin Kamara #17:  Kamara seems to have fallen out of favor, even though he has done what he always does, producing high-end fantasy results. Heading into week 14, Kamara was 4th in PPG with 19.8. Unfortunately, Kamara has suffered a lower-body injury that has kept him out since week 9. When older players have an extended absence, it cuts dramatically into their dynasty value. With Kamara healthy in time for the playoffs, it should help alleviate some of dynasty managers’ concern for him. Kamara is a tricky one for me because of the Saints situation. The offense has relied heavily on Kamara due to the lack of surrounding talent. Moving away from Kamara, I will need someone closer to his dynasty value. I would pull the trigger if I can pivot to Kyle Pitts, AJ Brown, or DK Metcalf. Otherwise, I would look for an early first plus Cam Akers type deal. If not, I am happy to wait and hold Kamara through the offseason.

Austin Ekeler #19: Back in August, Ekeler was going in the third round of dynasty startups, and all he has done since is carry teams to the playoffs. If you got Ekeler at his discounted price this offseason, you have to be thrilled with the results. While I love his role and the fact he is attached to Herbert, I am good getting out a year early with Ekeler because he has sustained multiple lower-body injuries the last few seasons. With the season Ekeler is having, you will be able to “sell high” as his performance will be front of mind for players acquiring him. There are multiple deals of Ekeler straight up for CMC in the DLF trade finder. There is also one of AJ Brown and a 1st round pick for Ekeler. The Ekeler market is on fire, so find the type of trade that improves your overall team. Now that Swift is expected to go on season-ending IR, you may be able to send Ekeler for Swift to a contending team.

The Duke

Joe Mixon #25: I do not think I could have been more wrong about a player going into a year than I was Mixon. Mixon was a complete fade for me this offseason, and I am eating all of the crow on that call. The difference for Mixon has been his nose for the goal line. He is seeing a lower share of the overall work but exceeding his efficiency from the previous seasons. Remember the talk of how the Bengals screwed up drafting Chase over Sewell? That talk is nonexistent, as Chase has balled out, and the line has improved, making Mixon’s job easier. My recommendation is to trade Mixon high, as there are numerous trades of Mixon straight up for CMC or Diggs. Those injury concerns are still there with Mixon. He has had numerous foot and ankle injuries during his career. Mixon’s success allows you to pivot in a direction to improve your team for the short and long term. 

Aaron Jones #31: Aaron Jones is a fascinating player to gauge in dynasty. Jones inked a deal this offseason to keep him in Green Bay through the next four years. The way the contract is structured, it would seem that 2023 would be the earliest Jones and Green Bay part ways. However, Jones has been a frustrating player for managers this year, as his work is at his lowest rate since his rookie season. Due in part to the presence of the behemoth A.J. Dillon this season. It is understandable, as Dillon is an explosive 250-pound battering ram who is the closest comp to Derrick Henry in the NFL. As a team, you want Dillon on the field as often as possible. Unfortunately, Dillon’s success has dropped Jones from a locked-in RB1 to an RB2 with potential RB1 upside. Add in Jones has just turned 27, and there are obvious red flags with his cost of a top 31 dynasty player. Jones trades are currently all over the map, as managers are trying to figure out the value of an aging running back. Higgins is the perfect asset to pivot to, in my opinion, as his dynasty worth is on much safer footing.

The Marquess

Kareem Hunt #61: We have plunged a few tiers, as Hunt is in that group of running backs where there is a surplus of uncertainty. Hunt is a player where the production outweighs the value. Hunt is under contract for one more season in Cleveland. The critical part of the contract is there is zero money in the dead cap next season, so Hunt will likely restructure his contract or be on a new team in 2022. When trying to move off of Hunt, you should target depreciated or youthful assets (Ridley, Dobbins, Akers, Elijah Moore, and Bateman come to mind.) You could always use Hunt as part of a package to move up tiers for a player with more worth.

Leonard Fournette #93: Lombardi Lenny hasn’t stopped the party, as he is winning leagues this season. Fournette currently has put in another RB1 performance. His 3rd and best RB1 season of his career. Fournette made the best decision of his career by joining forces with Tom Brady. It took Fournette a while to recover from the high ankle sprain he suffered last season, but once he did, Uncle Lenny showed the NFL he was a perfect fit with the Bucs. It must feel like holding a hot potato if you are holding him on a rebuilding squad. I would look to a player who will improve his value based on the situation. Think Jerry Jeudy, Darnell Mooney, Michael Gallup, Josh Jacobs, Travis Etienne type player. This group will all see the dynasty values rise this offseason. 

Chris Carson #113:

Our last player listed, and one who has seen his value almost entirely evaporate due to a neck injury Carson suffered this season. It is a shame because Carson was the engine that drove the Seahawks rushing attack the last five seasons. In doing so, Carson gave teams low-end RB1/high-end RB2 production the previous three seasons. If you can find someone willing to roster Carson, see what you can get for him as his best days in the NFL are behind him. Carson underwent neck surgery around Thanksgiving, hoping to return in 2022. I would target a young promising tight end (No, not Kyle Pitts) and hope that player takes steps forward to gain dynasty value. Someone such as Dalton Schultz or Dawson Knox are the tight ends that fit that mold. As for pick values, I would happily take a second-round pick for Carson at the moment, though a third-round pick seems more likely.

In conclusion, the 2017 running back class is one for the record books. Even with all the injuries to the running back position this season, we are still getting elite production from Ekeler, Mixon, Kamara, and Fournette. In addition, Cook, Jones, and Hunt are valuable pieces for contenders making a push for a championship. While all that is great, when we zoom out and look at the big picture, now is the perfect time to move off these assets in dynasty, as the production and value slowly wean away. You will be happy you decided to trade away these players when you look back a year from now.

The post Dynasty: the Year Of The Forgotten Running Back appeared first on Pro Football Mania.

By Jesse Moeller (Twitter: JMoeller05)

As we head into the beginning of bye weeks, roster construction becomes that much more crucial for teams to navigate their way to the playoffs. Therefore, I am pinpointing three different first or second-year quarterbacks who help put your team over the top as it pushes for the playoffs. This article is for teams in need of an upgrade at the quarterback position. Those of you who have a struggling quarterback or are streaming the quarterback position weekly and yet have to find success.

Those of you who have a Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Justin Herbert type at the position, congrats! You chose to prioritize the position and are reaping the benefits of having an advantage over your league mates. I plan to highlight an argument that managers used against drafting each player this offseason and let you determine for yourself if those arguments were valid or made in bad faith.

Jalen Hurts QB7

Fantasy Cheat Code

Jalen Hurts the number one quarterback to acquire in redraft. An elite fantasy asset undervalued by the redraft community. It is time to get in before the rest of fantasy football views Hurts in that light. I do not know what else this player needs to do before we realize we have a bona fide fantasy star on our hands. If the tweet above did not seal the deal, well, then hopefully, I can add some context for you to be a Hurts believer.

Is He Inaccurate?

We saw this argument used countlessly against Hurts in the offseason.
The context behind this is Hurts only played four games last year. The situation was terrible for both Wentz and Hurts the previous year, as injuries decimated the offense. As a result, the players found themselves in a no-win dilemma. Remember Travis Fulgham? He was the top fantasy wide receiver from week 4-8 last season. Unfortunately, he was released by the Eagles this week. When the situation around you is as bad as it was for the offense last year, you end up playing hero ball and open yourself to more potential mistakes. Watching this last year was evident for Hurts.

However, back to the original tweet, did you know Kyler Murray currently has a completion percentage of 75.1% this year? The NFL record is 74.4% held by Drew Brees, so does that mean Kyler is the most accurate Q.B. in the league’s history? No, it certainly does not, as he is likely to regress as the season goes along. Rookie quarterbacks need time to develop, and Hurts was not allowed that time to progress last season. Though given the offseason to produce behind a healthy line and upgraded skill talent, Hurts has looked every part of the problem at Oklahoma and Alabama.

Pay the price to acquire Hurts before the cost becomes too steep, and he becomes unattainable.

Trevor Lawerence QB24

Rushing Upside

The Golden boy fantasy players have dreamed about for years has finally arrived and is starting to deliver on that progress for the Jaguars and your fantasy teams. While his price in dynasty is through the roof, in redraft, he is attainable. While his roster percentage has finally surpassed 50% on yahoo, the cost to acquire him will likely cost you a flex player in 1QB. Check out the teams with Lawerence rostered, and make them an offer of a RB/WR who improves their weakness. You will not miss that player in your lineup. Getting TLaw now locks in potential QB1 fantasy production at a position where elite play is a huge advantage.

Urban Freakin Meyer

Astounding how the tone around Lawrence has changed in 5 weeks of his rookie season. While more an NFL problem than a fantasy problem, as the Jaguars will win very few games this year. Darrell Bevell is a respected play-caller who succeeded with Brett Favre, Russell Wilson, and Matthew Stafford during his NFL tenure. He will put this young quarterback in a position to grow and develop moving forward. No matter the circus that currently surrounds Urban Meyer.

The Jaguars, even with season-ending injuries to D.J. Chark and Travis Etienne, have a core of talented skill players that will allow Lawrence to succeed. Despite the game scripts they face moving forward due to the subpar defense, Lawrence will use his least talked about fantasy ability managers all crave. The Konami Code that Lawrence presents is the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow. Did you know he ran a faster 40-yard dash than Trey Lance and has outrushed Justin Fields 21 to 9 the last three games?

To sum it all up, you are getting an elite quarterback prospect who gives you rushing upside and will be in-game scripts ripe for passing this year? Sign me up all day at a discounted price.

Trey Lance QB31

Konami Code King

Trey Lance does things on a football field that make your jaw drop. The player oozes talent and has already shown how good he can be. He is third on my list because of a knee sprain that may keep him out a few weeks. If the 49ers clear Lance to start, I am all systems go in trying to get this player on your roster. The main reason is what you expect it to be, that Konami code. Among the first or second-year quarterbacks, only Jalen Hurts presents a similar upside. Since taking over for Jimmy G at halftime of the Seahawks game, Lance has rushed the ball 23 times. That is Lamar Jackson’s territory of rushing. You want that caliber of a quarterback on your roster.

The Path Was Blocked

The biggest issue facing Lance heading into the season was the presence of veteran Jimmy Garappolo on a team expected to compete for the playoffs. The thinking being that if Garoppolo performed well that Lance would never get a shot at the starting job in 2021. I disagreed, but I understood the argument as teams with Super Bowl aspirations do not want a rookie quarterback to crater the offense. Given that San Fransisco took Lance with the 3rd overall pick, it should have told us that Lance’s time was coming at some point this year. The upside Lance presents far outweighs the floor Garoppolo offers. It would be best if you always played to win, and while an injury to Garoppolo cleared the way for Lance, you cannot go back to the veteran at this point.

As Long as Lance is healthy, acquire him. Then, please sit back and enjoy the fantasy upside he presents to your team.

The post 3 Young QBs To Target In Redraft appeared first on Pro Football Mania.

By Jesse Moeller twitter.com/JMoeller05

The market can be your foe or friend when it comes to dynasty, depending on how you react to the dynasty Market. Move fast, and you can gain a leg up on your competition, moving too slow, and it will put you behind the eight ball. By trusting your process and moving quickly in dynasty, you become a massive winner in the end.

The most significant edge you can gain in dynasty is when you go against the consensus to obtain an advantage where others did not see it as a potential possibility. As the further you go away from it, the greater return you can gain. Along with that comes more inherent risk. Often, the game we play compares to the stock market for good reason. The similarities to the stock market are apparent. That is why you see countless Buy and Sell pieces when browsing Twitter or dynasty football websites. Since the game is year-round, the value on players and picks swings wildly. Make sure you stay up to date to take advantage when you receive a fortunate bounce.

This tweet is one of my favorite graphics I have come across. It helps us see how dynasty is cyclical. As you can see from the graphic above, the easiest way to gain value is to trade for players in the offseason and acquire picks during the season. There is always a risk with it, as the veteran you obtain could struggle, ala Robby Anderson, Kenny Golladay, Mike Davis. The draft picks possess that exact problem as well. Look at N’Keal Harry, Jalen Reagor, Rashaad Penny, Ke’Shawn Vaughn, and Kaderious Toney. There is an inherent risk with every move we make in dynasty, so that line of thinking will only cost you in the long run. We all will have hits and misses in this game. Unfortunately, it will always be a part of it, as we are playing a game based on a game. It simply creates more potential risk, which is an aspect of this game I genuinely enjoy. We are trying to use any advantage to overcome the other managers in your league.

This strategy can be hard to pull off as you reverse what seems the most straightforward way to improve your team. Every team wants productive players in-season and to accumulate draft picks in the offseason. Going this route, you follow a similar strategy as every manager in your league. Going against the grain allows you to have a broader range of outcomes when looking to obtain players or picks when the dynasty community is lower on them. It is an often misunderstood strategy that has a tremendous payoff in dynasty.

Broken down to a micro-level, the contrarian approach while applying this strategy would be investing in players that the community has openly soured on for numerous reasons. In dynasty, a player’s age goes hand in hand with their value. It is the likeliest scenario as a player pushes up against and surpasses the dreaded age apex. Once you move past the age apex in dynasty, a player will never recover the value they previously had, no matter how productive they are. Think of Derrick Henry, Chris Carson, Julio Jones, DeAndre Hopkins, Adam Thielen, Rob Gronkowski, Tom Brady, and other productive veterans. The players all had a reduced cost to one reason alone this offseason, their age. Ask any manager that has them rostered, and I would imagine they all are thrilled with the production they have received this year.

This last section might be my favorite. As Drew points out, you can find a market inefficiency and exploit it. For me, that inefficiency was the price of J.K. Dobbins and how Baltimore was a supposed lousy spot for the player to be. Two weeks in, Ty’Son Williams, an undrafted 25-year-old running back, is currently 15th in PPR with the 26th opportunity share and 28th in weighted opportunities, doing this while splitting work with Latavius Murray. I can confidently say Dobbins was going to smash this season. Here is to 2022, my guy.

Back to the topic at hand, this situation is when the community fades a player for a particular reason. Think of D.J. Moore, Josh Jacobs, Courtland Sutton, Amari Cooper, J.K. Dobbins, Odell Beckham, Logan Thomas type players. All have the talent to be one of the best players at their position in fantasy. Yet, the market price does not reflect that in the players’ value for one reason or another. These players are the ones where going against consensus will net you a substantial profit if you are willing to see it through.

Try going against the gain in one of your dynasty leagues this season. At the end of the year, see how the strategy worked for you and make adjustments to your process. It is how we all get better at this game we play. Never be afraid to go against the community and trust in your beliefs. You are the one managing your team, not the community. By doing this, you see your strengths in this game, allowing yourself to improve them for sustained success.

Update: I wanted to mention the late great Mike Tagliere. I did not have the privilege of knowing Mike Tagliere personally, yet I felt the mark he left in our community. Few names transcend the game we play, and Mike was one of them. Go ahead and search #TagsStrong on Twitter and you will see what a wonderful person Mike was, who left a lasting impact on this industry. Mike will be missed and remembered by so many. I wanted to thank you personally for all you gave to helping others strive to achieve a place in this industry. You are gone but never forgotten.

The post Ride The Dynasty Fantasy Football Wave To Success appeared first on Pro Football Mania.

By Jesse Moeller via JMoeller05

After the chaos in the NFL we saw in week 1, I wanted to give you a list of players I am looking to trade away in dynasty. Unfortunately, I do not see these players holding the current value long-term, otherwise known as depreciating assets. Given this is dynasty, instead of listing only older running backs, I wanted to mention a couple of veterans and a few young running backs that I do not see living up to the billing. For this article, we will be using the dynasty rankings on the DLF website.

The Vets

Derrick Henry RB7

Henry is the biggest name to trade away in dynasty among all running backs. If you can get the value of a top 7 running back, you should move him immediately. The issue with Henry is his inflated rushing volume and nonexistent pass-catching, which limits Henry in PPR leagues. In addition, it makes Henry a game script dependant running back, where if the Titans fall behind as they did in week one, it practically takes Henry out of the game.

Henry has a very high ceiling only exceeded by the elite pass-catching running backs in fantasy, and my issue is more with Henry’s floor as it is much lower than other top-tier running backs. Let’s take game one and break it down to show you my point. Henry ran the ball 17 times in a blowout loss. That may seem like a lot, but that is one of Henry’s lowest totals of the past two seasons. He only has five performances with less than 17 rushes in that period. Now, if you spread that out throughout a 16 game season, you see the big picture issue for Henry. His season total rushing comes out to 272 attempts, which is 106 attempts lower than his 2020 pace. If you gave Henry the same efficiency, his rushing totals come out to 1,457 yards and 12 touchdowns, a whopping 570 fewer rushing yards and five touchdowns fewer. That’s a significant blow to Henry’s value and would crater his dynasty value if that scenario plays out. Given Henry was drafted at his ceiling, advanced age, and has a new offensive coordinator calling plays, he is the name I am screaming to trade away while he still carries that elite fantasy value.

Mike Davis RB31

The Falcons brought over Derrick Henry’s offensive coordinator, so it must be wheels up for Mike Davis, right? There was a lot to like about the hire of Arthur Smith and why teams with Davis rostered had to be excited going into the year. The Falcons did not spend high draft capital or big money on a free agent to give Davis competition as the lead back this year. It set up for Davis to smash a second consecutive year, or at least that was the thought behind buying into Mike Davis this year.

My issue is that the Falcons do not resemble the Titans on offense and should not deploy Davis in that role because it is not in the Falcons’ strengths as a team on offense. Instead, you have Matt Ryan, Calvin Ridley, and Kyle Pitts. Those are the big names in fantasy this year, paired with a far inferior offensive line. It is not an ideal fit for Mike Davis to exceed expectations. The Falcons have a worse defense and questions marks on the line. I don’t see how that setup is strong for Davis this year from a fantasy perspective.

The problem for Davis is that he feels like a ticking time bomb this year in dynasty. If Arthur Smith does not adjust to his talent, it could spell doom for Davis. The sooner you do it, the better. The Buccaneers are in town this week, and it could be a long game for the Falcons. I would be happy to move Davis for the cost of a top 30 dynasty running back.

Young Bucks

Clyde Edwards-Helaire RB12

I have never understood the CEH hype, as people draft him due to the situation and not talent. It is how you set yourself up for failure as a dynasty manager””propping up worse players due to where they were drafted or signed as free agents. With CEH, the signs are there for us to take notice. What continues to concern me about him is the lack of targets, CEH’s calling card in college. His ability to be a pass-catching weapon. The community thought he would explode attached to Mahomes and the Chiefs offense. Instead, it was an up and down rookie year with a disappointing finish that stuck in the craw of managers. The problem is that CEH stayed in the top 12 RB range this offseason. Meaning for CEH to live up to expectations, he needed to produce high-end fantasy numbers.

I have seen enough from CEH to move on to get the return of an RB1 in dynasty. Whether you are a win-now or in a rebuild, you can pivot off of CEH to better options. Talk to a team with Sanders, Ekeler, Dobbins, Williams, or Montgomery and see if you can get that player+ in a return trade. I happily make that type of move to give me a boost for the short and long term.

Michael Carter RB24

The post Dynasty RBs to trade away appeared first on Pro Football Mania.

By Jesse Moeller via JMoeller05

Today is the day that football is officially back! We have our first matchup of the regular season between the Buccaneers and Cowboys. This week, I would like to dive into the weekly game theory in fantasy football, particularly redraft leagues.

What kicked off this idea in my head was seeing numerous individuals questioning whether or not to start Ezekiel Elliot this week against Tampa Bay after Dallas lost All-Pro guard Zach Martin for the week. Of course, the worry is legitimate, as losing a player of Martin’s caliber will affect Elliot this week. But, with the volume Elliot is set to receive, do you seriously consider benching Elliot?

In the long and short of it, the answer is no, and you do not bench him on 99% of fantasy teams. Now, let me tell you the game that forever changed how I view sit/start options. It was week 9 of the 2019 season, and the undefeated New England Patriots were facing the 5-2 Baltimore Ravens. The Patriots’ defense was on a record-setting pace in the first half of the year. They were averaging 22.62 fantasy points per game. To give you a perspective on how great this was, using FantasyPros, I was able to get back to the 2012 season. The most fantasy points a defense has scored in a season was 236 points. So the eight-game pace the Patriots were on would have scored 362 fantasy points over a year. That’s a CMC or Kelce type of advantage over your opponents.

I struggled all week deciding what to do with Lamar, as I was terrified the Patriots defense would put the clamps on him. I picked up Derek Carr as my insurance policy as the Raiders were facing the woeful Detroit Lions that week. That Sunday morning, I began to panic, and I did the unthinkable. I benched Lamar for Derek Carr as I convinced myself it was a perfect matchup for Carr and a brutal one for Lamar. Then I sat back and watched as Lamar shredded the Patriots on national television for 28+ fantasy points. On the other hand, Carr had a decent game, but it cost me in the matchup as I lost by four points that week. I knew in the first quarter that I had made a horrible mistake and decided to torture myself by watching the entire game. From that moment on, I decided that I would start my stud players almost exclusively.

Have you ever noticed that you have an uneasy feeling in your stomach whenever you bench an elite fantasy player? That is your body’s way of telling you that you made a wrong decision. So let me dive into this topic a bit and explain why you should listen to your body when it talks to you. When I referenced benching Zeke, and why I thought it was a bad idea, it comes down to who you have on your roster that you are comfortably replacing him with? Does that running back have an upside as high as Zeke? If you can make a legitimate case that the running back does, I am open to it, but why would you bench Elliot unless you have a Derrick Henry and Aaron Jones in your backfile along with Elliot?

Yards Per Fantasy had a great piece on why volume is King for running backs, and I agree with the conclusion they arrived at and why volume is what you want. Hence, How you find a Superstar fantasy running back is when you add efficiency to volume. Elliot is a volume play in week one as the Buccaneers will likely not give up many yards on the ground, being the only NFL to allow less than 1000 rushing yards last year. If Elliot is efficient this week, he will quickly become a top-five running back in week one. I guarantee the player you benching Zeke for does not have that in their range of outcomes.

As managers, we tend to overthink situations and matchups, as we love to do. We believe that we tend to know more than we do. Do not fall victim to galaxy brain thoughts with your team this week. If you are debating benching Zeke for Raheem Mostert, Gus Edwards, or Chase Edmonds in week one, you have played yourself. These players all have issues and are not as safe as we believe, even with the plus matchups boosting them up in week one.

When dealing with sit-start decisions, I have a few thoughts I run through to help clarify the situation. First, I consider the players’ role, the volume they will receive, and the upside if that player hits maximum expectations. Lastly, I examine the matchup to be more of a tiebreaker if I cannot decide between the two options. Following these guidelines has given me a more significant hit rate in my sit-start decisions from that regretful decision to bench Lamar decision back in 2019.

Given those guidelines, what are you doing with Zeke in your lineup? Are you even contemplating benching him? He feels exceptionally safe to me when you look at sit-start decisions through a different prism. If I were to boil this down to a simple “Start Your Studs” policy across the board, why that is important is upside wins you championships, and the stud players you drafted early were drafted early for that reason. They do what few other players can do for your team on a weekly and season-long basis. We can all get too cute from time to time, as we read too much into a situation to tell ourselves a story that does not exist. When all along, it would have made more sense to start the stud player instead of worrying about a problem that never existed in the first place.

I thank you for reading my latest piece. If you do not want to take my words for it, I present to you the comments of Ian Hartitz on the matter of starting the best players on your team.

The post Fantasy Football: Start Your Studs appeared first on Pro Football Mania.

By Jesse Moeller (Twitter @JMoeller05)

I cannot tell you how excited I am about writing this article. We have five days until the first game, and I cannot contain my enthusiasm for the NFL season. However, having spent this offseason honing my craft, I wanted to mention a topic essential to set you up for success early in the year. But, of course, that would be dependent on the strategy you will be employing this year to guide your championship run.

For this article, we will be using the traditional redraft roster settings:

QB – 1
RB – 2
WR – 2
TE – 1
Flex – 1
Def – 1
Kicker – 1
Bench – 6

Now, let us dive into some of the more popular strategies that players use involving the crown jewel of fantasy, running backs. The reason every plan has a running in the title is simple. If you hit on a running back, the ceiling is higher than other positions. Below are three strategies garnering the most publicity this year:

Hero RB:

You anchor your team around one elite player at the running back position and then fade the position while you collect talent at other spots before dipping back into the running back pool later in the draft. The theory with this strategy is you gain such a significant advantage with the one running back that you grab other elite players at different positions to balance out your overall roster.

What makes this strategy so fascinating to me is you are clearly placing all your eggs in one basket, and if that Hero RB goes down early, your season likely goes down the drain with it. Let me tell you why this has been my preferred strategy this offseason. It lets you load up on elite pass catchers in the draft and then tackle running backs with upside later in the draft to help balance out your roster. There is no value-added in rostering many bench wide receivers in a traditional fifteen-round draft, as they will not see the field for you with the elite talent you have at the wide receiver and tight end position.

You want to load up on running backs with pass-catching upside or a role to a significant workload due to injury or a cloudy backfield. Teams with those uncertain backfields are ideal targets under this scenario, such as Cardinals, Buccaneers, Ravens, Rams, Bills Patriots, Texans, etc. Targets the player you prefer from these backfields. If you hit on that choice, it instantly boosts your team’s value. Looking at your roster, and if you see names like Dillon, Pollard, Bernard, White, Drake, Johnson on the bench, you have executed this strategy to a T. When one of those players hits this year, the value on your team exponentially grows. The fragility of the build makes it seem like a fair risk-reward play. But, in reality, those elite wide receivers, tight ends, and quarterbacks can also carry you.

Robust RB

You are taking the hero strategy and amplifying it to grab a stranglehold at the running back position and giving yourself a surplus of talent early and often while looking to find discounted valuable players at other positions. Hitting on this strategy can extinguish the rest of your league. Additionally, by finding dependable players at wide receiver, you maintain the edge of your team’s running backs.

By grabbing early running backs early and often, you will want to tackle the wide receiver position beginning in the middle rounds. It would be best if you also filled your bench with higher upside wide receivers. Like the Hero RB strategy, you are helping guard against a potential vulnerability if the wide receivers you selected earlier flame out. You will want to target wide receivers who are the unquestioned number one option on their team or undervalued WR2/3 in high volume passing attacks. These are the perfect players to target as they give you similar production to receivers earlier in the draft.

While those wide receivers you take late provide you some insurance with this strategy, do not be afraid to add some dart throw running back options on your bench as well. If you hit with that running back, the upside is far superior to the wide receivers going in that range.

Zero RB

The last and most challenging strategy to achieve. As what it does is flips the value of the running back position on its head. You are punting running back early in the draft to give yourself an advantage at another. What makes this strategy so tricky is the perceived lack of depth at the running back position. When you connect with the Zero RB strategy, you gain a more significant edge than any other strategy due to a value boost you gain when one of your Zero RB choices hits.

Now the margins are narrow, as the chances of that happening are slimmer, so this is why you take as many shots as possible. Once you have locked in your wide receiver core, you should line the bench with upside running backs, providing the boost you need with this strategy. The critical part of that phrase mentioned is upside running backs. Take last year, for instance. You could have picked Carlos Hyde and Devontae Booker and rolled craps. However, if you selected James Robinson and Antonio Gibson, you likely felt better about this strategy.

When picking candidates to support this strategy, you must ask yourself if the situation breaks right for the late-round running back you select, does the role improve enough for that player to make a difference? For example, there is a massive difference in selecting Jamaal Williams or Tony Pollard in your draft if both Zeke and Swift are lost for a significant portion of time. Pollard would walk into an actual league-winning role that sets you on a path towards the playoffs. Williams does not present that upside, as he would split work on a bad offense. The upside is just not the same.

Williams still has some allure for those of you brave enough to take the Zero RB plunge. But, unfortunately, it pails in comparison to a player like Pollard. So, select the actual upside play at this point in the draft. We all know that upside is the name of the game in the double-digit rounds.

I hope you enjoyed my breakdown of these three strategies. I look forward to hearing about your favorite strategy for this season. If it paid off for you in the draft, or if it went down in a blaze of glory.

The post Hero Vs Robust VS Zero: best running back strategies appeared first on Pro Football Mania.

By Jesse Moeller

Who doesn’t like Superheroes? I have yet to meet a person who is not a fan of Superheroes, and whether you prefer the DC likes of Superman, Batman, Wonder Woman, or the Marvel Heroes such as Captain Marvel, Iron Man, or Thor. It is safe to say that we all have a favorite hero.

Superheros are the ones who save the day, and what if I told you that your fantasy team could have a hero to win you your league? Here is where the Hero RB comes in to save the day for your team. That running back is the Superhero of your team as you battle foes for 17 weeks in a journey to win the championship. To quote James Gordon, ” He’s the hero Gotham deserves, but not the one it needs right now.”

Why does your team need a Hero RB? To put it bluntly, the elite fantasy running back gives you a massive edge over the competition. So let’s dive into these numbers to provide you with an idea of why the Hero RB is so important for your team.

In 2020 the average points scored by a top 12 running back or an RB1 were 263.61. We are not looking for your average hero, and we want more. The citizens require a superhero like Alvin Kamara. In 2020, Alvin Kamara dominated fantasy football and put up 377.8 points or 25.2 PPG. Suppose you take away Kamara’s numbers. And look at the other top 12 running backs. The RB2-RB12 produced 253.3 Points or 15.83 PPG. That means Kamara was almost 10 points better than any other RB per week in fantasy. That is the hero we need to win you a championship. As we look back on the yearly numbers, it is evident how important the RB1 is in fantasy. I will post the last five years’ worth of data for you to see.

2020 RB1 = Alvin Kamara 377.8 Points, 23.61 PPG (+7.78 PPG)
2020 RB2-RB12 = 253.3 Points, 15.83 PPG

2019 RB1 = Christian McCaffery 471.2 Points, 29.5 PPG (+12.43 PPG)
2019 RB2-RB12 = 273.16 Points, 17.07 PPG

2018 RB1 = Saquon Barkley 385.8 Points, 24.1 PPG (+5.77 PPG)
2018 RB2-RB12 = 293.39 Points, 18.33 PPG

2017 RB1 = Todd Gurley 383.3 Points, 23.95 PPG (+7.51 PPG)
2017 RB2-RB12 = 263.09 Points, 16.44 PPG

2016 RB1 = David Johnson 407.8 Points, 25.5 PPG (+9 PPG)
2016 RB2-RB12 = 264.12 Points, 16.5 PPG

The combined averages are striking. No one player gives you more of an immense advantage over the competition than the RB1. Here are the numbers from 2016-2020.
The average RB1 season posted 405.18 Points, 25.32 PPG (+8.49 PPG)
The RB2-RB12 average = 269.41 Points, 16.83 PPG.

Now that is a superhero I can get behind. The effect this has is everyone chases that Superhero RB in the first few rounds of the draft. It pushes up running backs who cannot carry the baton ahead of players at other positions. Enter the Hero RB strategy. It allows you to target one of the top-rated fantasy running backs and add elite pieces to your roster at different positions besides running back. Below is the list of the Hero RB you should target in your draft this season. They can take your teams to super places that other running backs are not capable of.

Captain Marvel – Christian McCaffery

like Captain Marvel, CMC stands head and shoulders above the rest. There is a reason CMC is the consensus 1.01 of fantasy drafts and Superheros. Others cannot do what he does on a football field. If you have the first pick, take the Superhero who puts the others to shame. It’s CMC’s world, and we live in it.

Captain America – Dalvin Cook

When Cook puts on that Vikings uniform every Sunday, he transforms into one of the world’s greatest Superheroes. No matter what you throw at him, he has a way of beating you with his strength, speed, and intelligence on the football field. In addition, Cook knows how to set up his talent to defeat you. When Cook is on his game, he is unstoppable.

Thor – Saquon Barkley

There is no one more talented on the football field than Saquon Barkley. His combination of size and speed is among the best in football. When Barkley is firing on all cylinders, it is the equivalent of watching Thor with Stormbreaker dismantle the competition. There is no defense for someone who is not human. Barkley is as close to a supernatural being on the football field as we can get. Draft Barkley with confidence this fall, and the NFL will remember how special a player he is in 2021.

Spider-Man – Alvin Kamara

Watching Kamara continue to obliterate defenses with his pass-catching ability is a thing of beauty. It’s the same with every Spide-Man movie. You have no idea how Peter Parker will win, and you know that he will. No matter the villain he is matched up against, Parker finds a way. Kamara is the same way. We know New Orleans will feature Kamara in the passing game, yet defenses cannot stop it. So do not hesitate on Kamara this year. Pick him and enjoy the Super look of your team.

Iron Man – Ezekiel Elliot

Last year, Elliot fell on hard times as he lost his quarterback and most of his offensive line. But, just as Tony Stark without his armor, Elliot without his quarterback and linemen is not the same. This year, the Cowboys upgraded the Iron Man suit for Elliot and should be as good as new behind those behemoths upfront. With all systems firing for J.A.R.V.I.S., it will be a banner year for Elliot to show he’s a first-tier Superhero. So, draft Elliot with belief, as it’s the year he comebacks to show how good he is.

Black Panther – Aaron Jones

There is no fresher running back in the league than Aaron Jones, so it only fits that his Superhero is Black Panther. Jones possesses the Swagger that oozes out of T’Challa. Good things happen for the Packers offense when Jones has the ball in his hands, as he is a true difference-maker. Aaron Rodgers is the vibranium to power Jones suit on the football field. As long as Rodgers plays in Green Bay, the Black Panther will be a nightmare for defenses in the NFL.

Hulk – Derrick Henry

Name a better pairing than the Hulk and Henry? I do not think you will be able to find one. Henry is a force that is simply bigger and stronger than you are. If he wants to move you, he will. Whatever you do, do not make Henry angry, as it will not end well for NFL defenses. Just ask Josh Norman how it turned out for him. What makes Henry so unique is that you could put him on any team, and he will succeed in the NFL. The size and strength are something we have never seen before in the NFL at the RB position. Tale Henry in the back half of the first round and enjoy another top 10 seasons.

Now that we have our Superheros picked out, we now set our sights on other positions. Only a select few running backs belong in the first few rounds of fantasy drafts, yet managers push them into the top two rounds of fantasy drafts. Let managers make that mistake and grab elite talent at other spots in your draft’s first four/five rounds.
Here are some of the players your should target in rounds 2-4 of your draft:

Round 2: Stefon Diggs, Calvin Ridley, DeAndre Hopkins, D.K. Metcalf
Round 3: Darren Waller, Allen Robinson, Ceedee Lamb, Terry Mclaurin
Round 4: Julio Jones, Tyler Lockett, Amari Cooper, Kyle Pitts

Each of the options listed is a better fantasy option than the running backs going in those rounds. The Hero RB strategy gives you the freedom to build a team of superheroes that your league mates cannot compete against. By following this strategy, it is clear what an advantage it gives you to start the season.

The last part of this strategy is to focus on the end of roster construction. Hammering wide receiver early in the draft, you can fire countless darts at running backs late in the draft. If you have those elite wide receivers locked down early, drafting wide receivers late is a waste of roster space, as they will not play. Spend the draft capital wisely on the likes of Travis Etienne, Miles Gaskin, Chase Edmonds, Zach Moss, Tony Pollard, and Gio Bernard. Search for that hero we did not know we needed. Hit on that late-round pick and you can lock up the championship before the season has begun.

The post Every fantasy team deserves a superhero appeared first on Pro Football Mania.

By Jesse Moeller (Twitter: @JMoeller05)

With training camps kicking off this week, it’s officially the week we welcome back football. In particular, people start focusing on fantasy football again. I know for us degenerates, that may sound odd, but only a tiny slice of the fantasy players participate in year-round dynasty or devy leagues. So I am here to give you a rundown of the pitfalls and traps to avoid as we transition to redraft season.

Hype Videos are strictly that.

While it is great to see a video of a player you read about on Twitter make a spectacular catch or run. You need to take these videos with a grain of salt. Let’s take the video of Rhamondre Stevenson below as an example.

After seeing this video of a rookie back running over a defender, you will likely want to go out, and draft said player. However, I would pump the breaks, as you only get a portion of the picture on that player. What you miss from this video is the Patriots Running Back Coach Ivan Fears one day later saying Stevenson needs to improve everywhere. Also saying he would spend most of the time on the bench this season. Do you see how relying only on the highlight video gives you an unrealistic one-sided look at the player for the upcoming season?

While I love the hype videos, make sure you see the context surrounding that player before you reach for a player because you saw him making a diving catch during training camp.

What’s The Players Worth?

Two things carry more weight than anything else in the NFL. Draft Capital and players contracts. Here’s looking to you, N’Keal Harry. It is so important because it gives players a longer leash to establish themselves with the team. Take, for instance, Kenneth Gainwell out of Memphis. The fifth-round pick has no guarantees of seeing a relevant role this year. Austin Ekeler, the player Gainwell continually comped to due to his role in San Diego, saw only an 18% snap share and accumulated 106 fantasy points as a rookie. Hundreds of rookies have faceplanted for every James Robinson that hits (who was a waiver wire pickup last year). Betting on rookies without premium draft capital is a losing bet.

On the flip side, apply this strategy to veterans involving cheap contracts. Again, Mike Davis and Jamaal Williams come to mind. Both players are on lower-level running back contracts, and a team will have zero issues moving on from them if someone such as Qadree Ollison or Jermar Jefferson is to outperform them early in the season. In addition, teams with veterans on these lower-level deals make them expendable, as they are easily replaceable due to the lack of cap implications. Other names that should fall under consideration are Mark Ingram, Marlon Mack, John Ross, Gio Bernard. If you invested in these players, keep an eye on them throughout camp, as the team will give you a good indication of how they feel these players early in the year.

Big Fish Little Pond

Extrapolating on small sample sizes gets others into trouble every year. Let me give you a couple of examples of how this strategy leads us all astray. I remember a few names, such as how Tyler Higbee finished the 2019 season, Dak Prescott’s red hot start to last year, how David Montgomery finished the season, or how Travis Fulgham was a midseason darling? These narratives lead to flawed processes, which then lead to bad decisions from fantasy managers. In each scenario listed above, overreacting to the small sample size was and is a broken process.

For example, Tyler Higbee was the most divisive of the bunch. During his final five weeks in 2019, Higbee caught lightning in a bottle. He faced the four worst defenses against tight ends in those five weeks. In addition, his snaps and routes ran received a massive spike during those five weeks due to an offensive scheme change. Steering Higbee to the most incredible five-game stretch by a tight end in history. Higbee jumped to TE7 in ADP, and you know how the rest of the story went for him in 2020. With each other player, there is hindsight analysis that we can apply to each situation. If you pay attention to the correct details, you will notice outlier moments for those players. Dak Prescott was on pace to throw 700+ times, which would rank him 2nd all-time in NFL history. 595 pass attempts were his career-high.

David Montgomery played a cakewalk schedule down the stretch and had zero competition for touches in the backfield. Travis Fulgham had no competition during his five-week explosion. However, as soon as Alshon Jeffery returned, he faded back to oblivion.

Square Peg Round Hole

The simple question you should ask yourself when looking for a breakout is what role players can earn? I will give my wide receivers and running back strategy as my example for breakout players. There is a drastic difference in the range of outcomes when talking about Laviska Shenault and Mike Williams. Shenault is in an offense with no obvious alpha, whereas Williams is competing with Keenan Allen. One player has a higher ceiling than the other due to the players surrounding them in that offense. If there is an established elite wide receiver, then I will likely look elsewhere when targeting similar players. The upside is what we all chase in fantasy football, as you want players who will make a weekly impact in your lineup. Finding the alphas or the WR1 in the passing attacks of the Steelers, Jaguars, Ravens, Jets, Colts is how you build value later in drafts.

Running backs are much more challenging to determine breakouts, as they can fall into a coach’s doghouse, or the skillset does not match up to the running scheme, such as the inability to pass protect keeping a running back out of passing downs. BTW, scheme and talent are much more critical mesh than they are at wide receiver. Therefore, when targeting a breakout running back, you want those in a crowded backfield with the uncertainty that can be a weapon in the passing game. Based on the traits above, would you instead target Damien Harris or Chase Edmonds? How about Michael Carter or Ronald Jones?

I hope this article allows you to avoid some of the pitfalls teams fall for each year. If you do that, you will gain an edge on the rest of your league.

The post Welcome Back to Fantasy Football: how to master redraft appeared first on Pro Football Mania.

By Jesse Moeller (Twitter: @JMoeller05)

Have you ever heard the phrase “Shooting for the Stars”? This phrase perfectly describes fantasy football to me. Upside wins you championships, as teams with Alvin Kamara in 2020 or Christian McCaffery in 2019 can attest. No one remembers the RB4 performance from LeVeon Bell in 2016. What they do remember is David Johnson breaking fantasy during that season. Hitting on a player who becomes the RB1 in fantasy football gives you a massive advantage over the competition.

It is the gold standard all fantasy managers end up be chasing. Settling for the floor is never a winning strategy, as that hurts your team more than it helps. Target players with paths to notable roles in opportunity shares, target shares, and touchdowns. Touchdowns are the most fickle of the three but can boost a player into contention. Since 2016 no RB1 has less than 64 receptions or 15 touchdowns. That is the baseline for any player to reach the RB1 status. If you cannot reasonably project a player to hit those thresholds, you will have to reevaluate how you feel about that player.

 Derrick Henry RB3

What both tweets reference is an asymmetrical upside that only specific players possess in this game. I am here to explain why Henry is not one of those players.

Henry is one of the best running backs in football, his skillset will never allow him to reach the RB1 of fantasy, and that’s ok. Drafting Henry at pick three is playing scared, and scared money does not make money. Fade Henry at cost, and invest in other players at the same range. Let someone else grab Henry earlier than you.

Joe Mixon RB13

That is some extreme inefficiency from Mixon last year.

Another season and the Mixon hype train is taking off. Boosting him top a borderline top 12 running back. It has propelled him into talk of being “The Best Value.” As an early second-round pick where people talk themselves into an upside with Mixon that does not exist. Mixon has been an inefficient volume play so far in his career. Why is Mixon going ahead of names such as C.E.H., Swift, Dobbins, Sanders, and Carson? Are you able to project Mixon for increased efficiency when last year he was among his most inefficient in the NFL with a rookie Joey Burrow as his quarterback? Or are you alright with boom busts weeks for Mixon that will undoubtedly drive you crazy as a manager?

What is working in Mixon’s favor? Of course, that would be the volume, as he will once again receive most of the rushing work for Cincinnati. It becomes fascinating if you can project Mixon for an increased role in the passing game, along with his efficiency moving in the right direction. In 2020 Mixon faced only 6.5 defenders in the box, and the seventh-best light front carries rate, and somehow his fantasy points per opportunity finished as .64, ranking 108th in the NFL last year.

The Bengals invested a first-round pick in superstar prospect Ja’Marr Chase and now have three bonafide wide receivers who will control the target distribution in Cincinnati this season. Regrettably, leaning on Mixon in favor of those three wide receivers is a lousy process by the coaching staff. So let someone else suffer through the roller coaster ride that is Joe Mixon in 2021.

Kareem Hunt RB24

Kareem Hunt is genuinely an expensive backup in Cleveland who had an unsustainably high touchdown rate in 2020. Regression is coming for the Browns 1B to Chubb’s 1A. Last year it was a consensus thought that Hunt was the backup to own in the NFL. If Chubb were to suffer an injury, Hunt would become the league winner. This exact scenario played out, and Hunt was no better than he was with Chubb on the field. So, what is the upside when selecting Hunt?

Hunt reminds fantasy players of the rookie who broke out in Kansas City to finish as the RB5 back in 2017. Unfortunately, he is not that player anymore, and you are better letting someone else chase the upside that does not exist for him for the next two seasons, as Hunt is tied to Cleveland as Chubb’s backup until 2023. Hunt played every game in 2020 and only managed 38 receptions, so without the receiving upside for Hunt, what value to your team does he present?

At his price, take a shot on a player that presents the upside you are looking for in one of Travis Etienne, Chase Edmonds, Javonte Williams, or Miles Gaskin.

Remember that upside is king in fantasy. Going after floor players because “they are safe” hurts your teams instead of winning you championships, which is the goal we all have when we start playing fantasy football. At a certain point, all of the players I listed do become a value in drafts. However, at the current ADP they maintain, they are a fade for me. As I do not hate players, I’m not too fond of overinflated ADPs.

The post Fantasy Football: 3 RBs to avoid appeared first on Pro Football Mania.

By Jesse Moeller (Twitter: @JMoeller05)

Yesterday was a vivid reminder that the NFL is a brutal sport, and injuries all too often have a significant impact on which teams in both the NFL and fantasy come out on top. The dynasty community saw one of its prized pupils in Cam Akers. The dynasty RB7 sustain a devastating Achilles tendon tear. It shifted the ground in dynasty, as teams dependant on Akers anticipated production immediately went looking for a replacement. In contrast, teams with Henderson received a massive boost for the championship aspirations this year.

It’s necessary to understand that not all injuries are the same. This is a major blow to Akers dynasty stock. Running backs who suffer an Achilles injury do not return to the form they showed prior. There is a fantastic thread from Edwin Porras on how difficult it is for running backs to return from this injury in particular. Based on the information provided, we know it is not your typical lower-body injury. The only running backs to have come back to any fantasy relevance after suffering an Achilles injury were Jonathon Stewart and Mikel Lashoure. Stewart is a true outlier in this scenario, as he put together six seasons with 180+ touches and over 700+ yards.

So What Is My Next Move?

Now, to the more focal point of the article. How do you manage injuries in dynasty? In the offseason, forcing yourself to fill a team need before the draft or training camp can leave you in a much worse position. So let’s go over some of the strategies I use for determining if a player is a sell or buy candidate coming off of an injury.

Age:  Age is key to any player coming off of an injury. Suppose an older player in a dynasty suffers a significant injury. In that case, it likely tanks any value that player has, and they will never return to that pre-injury value. A player that falls under the category is Odell Beckham. Unless Beckham can produce WR1 seasons, he will never crack the top 24 dynasty-wide receiver ranks again, given his age and injury history. He is far more likely to continue his slide as he turns 29 this year. Beckham is a player I have little interest in dynasty due to this history. Beckham has only played 16 games once in his last four seasons and has only one season of WR2 play in that timespan. The lack of production partnered with him coming off a significant injury is why I’m out on Beckham.

Talent: This can be tricky as talent is subjective, but the more talented a player is, I am far more likely to invest in the player recovering from a significant injury. If this player is a true difference-maker at the position, you will likely receive a discount on that player due to said injury. For the elite players such as CMC, Saquon, and others coming off of season-ending injuries, the teams who paid the discounted rate to acquire them last year are set up for success this time. Having the patience to wait through a lost season for elite dynasty players is a potential boon for your roster.

Roster Construction: The third option can be just as important. If a team in win-now mode just lost one of its starting players and did not have a viable backup at the position, this is when teams get desperate trying to compete for a championship each year. They will likely accept a worse player at the position to try and content. If you have foresight and depth, you can upgrade your overall long-term outlook. There are numerous players this could describe, such as Dak Prescott, Joe Burrow, Nick Chubb, Michael Thomas, and George Kittle. Adding any one of those players to your roster boosts the overall product, especially when it comes at a discounted price via trade.

Injury Severity: This is about knowing what type of injury the player has sustained, how severe the damage is, and how long the absence will be. If a quarterback suffers a shoulder or elbow injury such as Big Ben did in 2019, what are the chances of the quarterback returning to full health post-injury? Can any running back recover from a torn Achilles? Did the receiver completely blow out his knee? These are essential questions to ask and help you understand if an injured player is one you should be targeting or fading. Remember, each injury is different, and some players recover faster than others. Using the timeline guides for each injury can help you understand when a player should be close to returning.

There is no proper solution for targeting injured players. With the advancements in modern medicine, athletes can come back quicker than we remember. Ten years ago, Adrian Peterson shocked the world by coming back from an ACL in December 2011 to play the following season. Not only did he do that, but he also put up over 2000 total yards. Peterson proved that the timeline on ACL recoveries was not as long as had previously been thought. This transitions us back to Cam Akers and the torn Achilles he suffered yesterday. It is a much more difficult situation. You have almost no information on players at the running back position who have successfully returned to have a successful career outside of Stewart. I came across this thread earlier and thought it was vital information to share as it is eerily similar to Akers situation. I highly recommend you read the Twitter thread and conclude what to do on Akers.

Cam The Ram

Those of you moving Akers, here is how I would go about it. If I can get a WR2 in return like Higgins, Aiyuk, Claypool, Lockett, or Woods and something added on top, I would be ok moving Akers in a trade. I’m not going to sell Akers for only a 1st round pick, as that does little to help me at the moment. Akers value is currently as low as it will be for the next few months. You should be in no rush to trade him away until you find a deal you are comfortable moving him in. You could also package him and someone like CeeDee Lamb for a genuinely elite running back if you choose to go that route in dynasty.

For people looking to buy low on Akers, I would start with rookie players and see if you can get someone to bite on a Michael Carter or Rondale Moore. These rookie players will never offer the upside of an Akers in dynasty, so I am comfortable moving them with the chance Akers comes back healthy. If unsuccessful, try a more established veteran like Damien Harris or Ronald Jones plus, which may be the route. This will be the much easier route, with the narrative surrounding Achilles injuries, the majority of the community will be out on him for the foreseeable future.

The post How To Navigate Injuries In Dynasty appeared first on Pro Football Mania.