1. C.J. Stroud Finally Gave Houston the Offensive Explosion It Needed

Biggest riser · +1.32 · No. 16 → No. 12

Houston came out of its bye at 2-5 and badly needed something more convincing than another close loss. For much of the first half against Los Angeles, it looked like another grind. Then C.J. Stroud hit Tank Dell for a 63-yard touchdown, and the Texans never looked back. Stroud finished with 384 passing yards and five touchdowns in a 44-22 win.

Kayshon Boutte caught two of those touchdowns and finished with 125 yards. Dell cleared 100 yards in his second game back, and Nico Collins added a spectacular scoring catch of his own. The defense did not sit back and watch, either. Houston sacked Justin Herbert eight times and took the ball away twice. It was the complete game DeMeco Ryans had been waiting to see.

PFM raised Houston’s Recent Performance from 73.78 to 77.23 and Explosiveness from 81.16 to 82.69, pushing the Texans from No. 16 to No. 12. There is a catch: the Chargers are now 0-8. This win does not erase Houston’s first seven games. But Stroud finally had room to attack deep, and the Texans looked dangerous on both sides of the ball instead of asking one unit to rescue the other.

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2. Jordan Love Picked Apart New England, and the Packers Broke Into the Top Eight

Riser · +1.29 · No. 11 → No. 8

Jordan Love did not play it safe against New England. He challenged a defense that had been one of the Patriots’ strengths, completing 23 of 29 passes for 372 yards and three touchdowns. Christian Watson caught seven passes for 171 yards, and Matthew Golden hauled in 10 for 164. That is 335 yards from two receivers in one afternoon.

The Packers also made Drake Maye pay for his mistakes. Xavier McKinney had two interceptions, and Green Bay finished with four takeaways. A game that was 24-14 at halftime turned into a 42-14 rout before the Patriots put up late points. This was not just Love piling up yards in a shootout. Green Bay took control early and kept finding explosive plays when New England needed a stop.

Offense Strength jumped from 79.61 to 82.37, while Explosiveness rose from 81.11 to 83.68. That lifted Green Bay from No. 11 to No. 8. Interestingly, its Defense Strength dipped slightly despite the four takeaways. The strongest case for the Packers this week is the quarterback. When Love is this accurate downfield, opponents have a problem even before the running game gets going.

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3. Buffalo Won a Defensive Game Against a Six-Win Vikings Team

Riser · +0.78 · No. 5 → No. 4

For the second week in a row, Buffalo’s defense gave Josh Allen an easier job. The Bills beat Minnesota 23-6 on Monday night, holding Carson Wentz to 81 passing yards and forcing three turnovers. Minnesota entered the game 6-1, and its offense never found a way to stay on the field.

Greg Rousseau recovered a backwards pass on an early Minnesota possession. Dorian Williams and Terrel Bernard intercepted Wentz in the third quarter. The Bills’ offense was hardly perfect, but James Cook III kept hammering away with 31 carries for 107 yards and a touchdown. Buffalo held the ball for more than 42 minutes. That is how a good defense turns a tight game into a comfortable win.

Defense Strength climbed from 76.69 to 79.26, moving Buffalo from No. 5 to No. 4 overall. The offensive grade actually slipped a little. Minnesota was without injured starter Kyler Murray, so the quarterback situation matters when judging this result. Still, the Bills have now won two very different games without needing Allen to outscore everyone. That is a better sign than another 40-point passing show would have been.

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4. Baltimore’s Quarterback Emergency Is Now a Four-Spot Rankings Drop

Biggest faller · -3.10 · No. 15 → No. 19

Baltimore had to start undrafted rookie Joe Fagnano on Thursday night with Lamar Jackson and Tyler Huntley on injured reserve. Jacksonville knew exactly what it was facing. The Jaguars forced three turnovers, held the Ravens to three points for most of the game and left Baltimore with a 33-10 loss. Justice Hill’s 65-yard touchdown run came after Jacksonville had built a 33-3 lead.

The Ravens have lost four straight, and they have scored fewer than 14 points in four consecutive games. The team responded by trading for veteran Jacoby Brissett, who was not available for the Jaguars game but is expected to start against the Chargers next Monday. Brissett gives Baltimore experience and a chance to run a steadier offense. He does not give the Ravens Lamar Jackson’s ability to turn a broken play into a first down.

PFM’s QB Stability grade fell from 85.30 to 75.60, the biggest single component swing among this week’s featured teams. Offense Strength dropped from 84.20 to 82.28, and the Team Score fell 3.10 points, from No. 15 to No. 19. The injuries explain why the situation changed so dramatically. Four straight losses explain why Baltimore cannot afford to treat Brissett’s arrival as an automatic fix.

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5. New England Scored 27, but Four Turnovers Ruined the Afternoon

Faller · -1.41 · No. 12 → No. 13

Drake Maye threw three touchdown passes and nearly reached 300 yards against Green Bay. Normally, those numbers would give New England a chance. Not this time. Maye also threw three interceptions, Rhamondre Stevenson lost a fumble, and the Packers turned the mistakes into points in a 45-27 loss at Gillette Stadium.

The damage was not limited to the turnovers. Love attacked downfield all afternoon, and Christian Watson and Matthew Golden combined for 335 receiving yards. Green Bay led 42-14 late in the third quarter. New England had enough offense to make the final score less ugly, but the defense could not get enough stops to keep the game competitive while it still mattered.

PFM cut the Patriots’ Recent Performance from 83.73 to 79.41 and Defense Strength from 82.21 to 80.22. The offense grade actually ticked up, which makes the point: this was not simply a case of Maye doing nothing. New England dropped from No. 12 to No. 13 because the mistakes and coverage breakdowns were too much to overcome. There is still plenty to like about a 5-4 team, but it cannot keep handing good opponents extra possessions.

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6. The Vikings Defense Had No Chance to Rest Against Buffalo

Faller · -1.12 · No. 14 → No. 15

Minnesota came into Monday night at 6-1, but the matchup with Buffalo turned into a long evening for its defense. Kyler Murray was out with a hamstring injury, and Carson Wentz could not keep the offense moving. He completed eight of 25 passes for 81 yards with two interceptions in a 23-6 loss. The Vikings did not convert a third down.

Minnesota had the ball for just 17 minutes and 28 seconds. Its first turnover came on a backwards pass that Buffalo recovered, and Wentz threw interceptions on consecutive third-quarter possessions. Meanwhile, James Cook kept taking short gains and turning them into manageable downs. Even a strong Vikings defense can only absorb so many drives when the offense keeps giving the ball back.

PFM’s Recent Performance fell from 86.91 to 82.20, and Offense Strength slid from 71.71 to 69.63. Minnesota dropped from No. 14 to No. 15. The quarterback absence clearly hurt, but the result also exposed the bigger worry: an offense with Justin Jefferson and plenty of talent still could not stay on the field. Getting Murray healthy would help. It would not erase how badly the Vikings struggled to sustain a drive.

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1. Buffalo Finally Has a Defensive Win to Match Josh Allen

Biggest riser · +2.64 · No. 7 → No. 5

Buffalo had the offense to beat almost anyone. The defense was the question. On Sunday, the Bills finally gave Josh Allen a game where he did not have to cover for it. Baltimore managed just 145 yards in a 36-10 loss, and Buffalo finished with four sacks and 12 quarterback hits.

There is an important catch to those numbers: Lamar Jackson left with a thumb injury on Baltimore’s first offensive play, Tyler Huntley followed with a toe injury, and undrafted rookie Joe Fagnano had to finish the game. Buffalo was creating problems up front, too: Jim Leonhard sent Cole Bishop on a blitz that forced a Huntley fumble and set up a short field. Allen did his part with 289 passing yards, two passing touchdowns and another score on the ground.

The PFM change is hard to miss. Buffalo’s Defense Strength climbed from 67.50 to 76.69, while Recent Performance rose from 86.36 to 90.71. That sent the Bills from No. 7 to No. 5. One game against a team that lost two quarterbacks does not settle every question about this defense. It does give Buffalo something it badly needed: proof that Allen does not have to win every Sunday on his own.

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2. Jacksonville Made Its Case Before Halftime

Riser · +0.86 · No. 11 → No. 9

Jacksonville did not give Indianapolis time to make this a game. Trevor Lawrence threw three touchdown passes, Bhayshul Tuten broke loose for a 39-yard scoring run, and safety Rayuan Lane III took an interception back 92 yards. By halftime, the Jaguars led 28-0. The final was 42-7.

This was not just a big passing day. Tuten ran for 104 yards and scored again on a screen pass, while Jacksonville finished with 183 rushing yards. The defense forced three turnovers and sacked Daniel Jones four times. Indianapolis could not protect the football, slow the run game or make Lawrence work for much of anything.

PFM raised Jacksonville’s Defense Strength from 79.05 to 82.00 and its Offense Strength from 82.13 to 82.94. The Jaguars climbed from No. 11 to No. 9, and the AFC South lead grew to three games. Beating a Colts team that just traded two veteran stars is not the same test as beating another contender. Still, Lawrence had answers, the running game delivered and the defense closed every door Indianapolis tried to open.

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3. Tampa Bay Did Not Complete a Pass. It Did Not Need To.

Riser · +0.72 · No. 17 → No. 17

A week after running over Carolina, Tampa Bay found an even stranger way to win. The Buccaneers did not complete a single pass in a rain-soaked 16-0 shutout of Atlanta. Baker Mayfield finished 0-for-3, but Bucky Irving rushed for 170 yards and Kenny Gainwell added 140. When a team can run like that, it does not need to pretend the weather will allow a normal passing game.

Todd Bowles’ defense made sure the Falcons could not fight their way back. Michael Penix Jr. threw four interceptions, including two to Alex Anzalone, and Atlanta finished without a point. Tampa Bay has now piled up more than 580 rushing yards across its wins over Carolina and Atlanta. That is not a one-week accident, even if the conditions helped push this particular game toward the ground.

Recent Performance rose from 77.42 to 80.61, and Defense Strength moved from 82.55 to 84.00. Tampa Bay gained another 0.72 Team Score points but stayed No. 17. That is a useful reality check: two impressive wins have changed the Buccaneers’ direction, but they still have to show this ground-heavy approach works when opponents can stack the box and force Mayfield to throw.

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4. Baltimore Lost Two Quarterbacks and Any Chance of Keeping Up

Biggest faller · -1.36 · No. 13 → No. 15

Baltimore barely got its offense started before the quarterback situation fell apart. Lamar Jackson injured his thumb on the Ravens’ first offensive play. Tyler Huntley took over, then left with a toe injury in the second quarter. Undrafted rookie Joe Fagnano was thrown into his NFL debut against a Buffalo defense that had no intention of making things easy. The Ravens lost 36-10.

Fagnano threw for 91 yards, and Baltimore finished with only 145 total yards. Derrick Henry scored the Ravens’ lone touchdown, but that came after a Buffalo turnover gave Baltimore the ball deep in Bills territory. It is difficult to judge the offense as if Jackson had played the full game. It is also impossible to ignore a third straight loss and another afternoon in which the Ravens could not keep pace.

PFM’s Recent Performance grade fell from 76.05 to 71.26, with Offense Strength down from 86.18 to 84.20. Baltimore dropped from No. 13 to No. 15. The quarterback injuries explain much of Sunday’s collapse, but they do not make the next stretch any easier. Baltimore needs a way to sustain drives while it sorts out who can play quarterback.

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5. Seattle Added Quenton Nelson, Then Got Run Over on Monday Night

Faller · -1.14 · No. 3 → No. 3

Seattle spent the week adding All-Pro guard Quenton Nelson. On Monday night, the Seahawks still could not control the game against Chicago. D’Andre Swift scored three rushing touchdowns after halftime, and the Bears walked out of Lumen Field with a 34-17 win.

Sam Darnold found Jaxon Smith-Njigba for a 43-yard touchdown and Cooper Kupp for another score. Seattle even cut the deficit to 20-17 in the fourth quarter. Then Chicago answered with two more Swift touchdowns, the second set up by a Darnold interception. The Seahawks totaled just 252 yards, and a promising comeback ended almost as quickly as it began.

PFM cut Seattle’s Recent Performance from 83.73 to 80.81 and its Explosiveness grade from 83.84 to 80.84. The Team Score fell 1.14 points, but Seattle held No. 3. Nelson should help the line, but a trade cannot fix an offense overnight or erase a defense that could not get Chicago off the field late. Seattle has now lost three of four, and the next step is turning that still-strong rating into more consistent football.

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6. The Colts Traded Two Cornerstones, Then Got Blown Out

Faller · -1.13 · No. 29 → No. 31

Indianapolis traded guard Quenton Nelson and defensive tackle DeForest Buckner, then watched Jacksonville take a 28-0 halftime lead. The 42-7 final was the Colts’ fourth straight loss. Whatever the long-term plan is, Sunday showed what this team looks like when it cannot win up front on either side of the ball.

Daniel Jones threw for 144 yards and two interceptions, including a 92-yard pick-six by Rayuan Lane III. Jonathan Taylor managed 23 rushing yards on eight carries, and Jacksonville ran for 183 yards at the other end. The Colts picked up a 2027 third-rounder and a 2028 fifth-rounder for Nelson, plus a 2027 fourth-rounder for Buckner. None of those future picks could help Jones on Sunday.

PFM lowered Indianapolis’ Recent Performance from 69.51 to 66.34, with Offense Strength and Defense Strength both falling by nearly two points. Franchise Direction ticked up slightly because of the acquired picks, but the Colts still fell from No. 29 to No. 31. Only Tennessee sits below them. This is no longer just a rough month. Indianapolis has moved veteran talent out and now has to decide what it can build around next.

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1. Baker Mayfield Is Back, and Tampa Bay Looks Like a Different Team

Biggest riser · +4.25 · No. 25 → No. 17

Tampa Bay was 1-5, missing Baker Mayfield and running out of ways to keep games manageable. Then Mayfield returned and the Buccaneers blasted Carolina 43-13 on the road. He threw only 11 passes. That was the point. Bucky Irving ran for 106 yards and two touchdowns, Kenny Gainwell added 88 on the ground, and Tampa Bay finished with 258 rushing yards.

The defense did more than protect a lead. Yaya Diaby had three sacks, and the Buccaneers finished with five sacks and two interceptions. Bryce Young and the Panthers spent much of the afternoon trying to dig out of the trouble Tampa Bay’s pressure created. It was the kind of complete game the Bucs hadn’t put together while Mayfield was out.

PFM’s biggest jump of the week starts with the quarterback. QB Stability moved from 68.8 to 78.8, while Recent Performance gained more than seven points. That’s enough to send Tampa Bay eight spots up the board, from No. 25 to No. 17. A 2-5 record still matters, and Mayfield didn’t have to carry the passing game Sunday. But getting him back gives the Buccaneers a much better chance to play the football they want to play.

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2. Detroit Finally Got the Defensive Game It Needed

Riser · +1.96 · No. 6 → No. 4

Detroit needed a late Jake Bates field goal to beat Green Bay 20-17, but the biggest reason for the PFM climb wasn’t the winning kick. It was the defense. The Lions held the Packers to 60 rushing yards and no rushing touchdowns, a sharp change for a team that had spent the first month asking Jared Goff and the offense to cover for too many defensive mistakes.

The offense still had its moments. Goff threw for 303 yards and two touchdowns, both to Jameson Williams. Amon-Ra St. Brown caught nine passes for 153 yards, and Jahmyr Gibbs ran for 116. When Green Bay pulled even in the fourth quarter, the Lions had enough left to drive for the winner. But the defense made sure 20 points could actually win the game.

PFM raised Detroit’s Defense Strength from 66.7 to 75.7, easily the biggest component change behind its rise to No. 4. The Lions still have work to do on that side of the ball; one good afternoon doesn’t erase the games when opponents ran wild. It does give Detroit a more convincing way to win than simply expecting Goff to win another shootout.

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3. Joe Burrow Turned a Disaster Into a Bengals Statement

Riser · +1.91 · No. 13 → Tied No. 7

Cincinnati trailed Baltimore 13-0 at halftime and had done almost nothing on offense. Then Joe Burrow went to work. The Bengals scored five straight touchdowns after the break and won 35-13, with Burrow throwing for 292 yards and four touchdowns. Tee Higgins caught six passes for 148 yards, and Baltimore never found an answer once Cincinnati started attacking downfield.

It wasn’t just Burrow. The Bengals defense kept Baltimore out of the end zone in the second half and gave the offense five straight possessions it could turn into touchdowns. That is a much more dangerous version of Cincinnati than the team that managed 59 yards in the first two quarters.

PFM moved the Bengals up six spots to a tie for No. 7. Recent Performance jumped from 79.6 to 86.0, and Defense Strength improved as well. The first half is why this can’t be called a complete performance. But the second half was a reminder that when Burrow gets protection and the defense gives him the ball back, Cincinnati can flip a division game in a hurry.

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4. Carolina Gave the Game Away Before It Could Settle In

Biggest faller · -1.83 · No. 21 → No. 26

Carolina had started to look like a team that could win with Bryce Young and a more balanced offense. Sunday against Tampa Bay was a brutal reminder of how quickly that can disappear. The Panthers turned the ball over four times, allowed five sacks and lost 43-13. Young threw two interceptions, and a strip-sack became a Buccaneers touchdown.

The mistakes kept handing Tampa Bay a shorter field and leaving Young in a game Carolina couldn’t play on its terms. Young finished with 163 passing yards, while the Panthers’ running game produced almost nothing to relieve the pressure. After beating Philadelphia the previous week, Carolina went backward in every area that mattered.

PFM dropped Recent Performance from 85.1 to 78.1 and Offense Strength from 82.0 to 78.7. The five-spot fall to No. 26 isn’t just punishment for one ugly score. Carolina gave away possessions, couldn’t protect its quarterback and never made Tampa Bay change the plan. The Panthers need to show this was a bad day, not the start of another slide.

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5. Kansas City Stayed No. 1, but Three Points Is a Warning

Faller · -1.58 · No. 1 → No. 1

Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs went to Seattle unbeaten and came away with three points. Kansas City gained 213 total yards, never reached the end zone and lost 20-3. Mahomes threw for 165 yards with an interception. The Seahawks kept the passing game in front of them, and the run game couldn’t force them to back off.

That is the real concern. Kansas City is used to adjusting when a defense takes away the first answer, but Sunday it never found a second one. Kenneth Walker III managed 36 rushing yards against his former team, and the Chiefs couldn’t stay on schedule long enough to make Seattle defend everything Andy Reid wanted to call.

PFM cut Kansas City’s Team Score by 1.58 points, with Explosiveness down more than six points and Offense Strength down about two. The Chiefs still hold No. 1 because Reid, Mahomes and the defense have built a stronger season than one bad afternoon can undo. But Seattle showed there is a way to make this offense look ordinary, and Kansas City needs to find its counter.

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6. Baltimore Led 13-0 and Then Completely Lost the Game

Faller · -1.44 · No. 11 → No. 13

Baltimore walked into halftime ahead of Cincinnati 13-0. By the end, the Ravens had lost 35-13. The Bengals scored on five straight second-half touchdown drives, and Baltimore’s offense did not score a point after the break. That is a full collapse, not a game that slipped away on one unlucky play.

Lamar Jackson was out, and Tyler Huntley was starting again. That clearly limits what the Ravens can ask from the passing game. Derrick Henry had 45 rushing yards, and Baltimore couldn’t keep the offense on the field once Cincinnati found a rhythm. But the quarterback situation cannot explain the defense allowing 35 unanswered points to Joe Burrow.

PFM’s Recent Performance grade fell almost seven points, and Defense Strength dropped again. The Ravens moved from No. 11 to No. 13 even though the roster still has considerable talent. They have now gone scoreless after halftime in consecutive games. Getting Jackson back will matter, but he cannot fix a defense that let five straight possessions end in touchdowns.

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1. Caleb Williams Came Back, and Chicago Looked Like a Different Offense

Biggest riser · +2.10 · No. 8 to No. 4

Chicago needed Caleb Williams back, and it took all of two drives to see why. After missing three games with a hamstring injury, Williams opened 10-of-10 for 122 yards and a touchdown against Atlanta. He finished 30-of-36 for 305 yards without an interception. The Bears won 31-23, and their offense finally had its starting quarterback making the throws Ben Johnson designed it to make.

Kyler Gordon gave Chicago an equally important return on defense. Playing his first game of the season, Gordon finished with three sacks and two forced fumbles. His late strip-sack of Michael Penix Jr. shut down Atlanta’s comeback after the Falcons had cut a 31-7 deficit to eight points. Chicago had built the lead with Williams, D’Andre Swift and Roschon Johnson finding the end zone, then needed Gordon to protect it.

PFM’s biggest gain of the week takes the Bears from No. 8 to No. 4. That’s a real jump, and the return of their quarterback is the biggest reason for it. There is still work to do: 12 penalties for 133 yards and a fourth-quarter scare are not how Johnson wants to finish games. But with Williams healthy and Gordon back in the secondary, Chicago has more ways to win than it did a week ago.

2. Six Field Goals Were Enough, but Arizona Still Has an Offensive Problem

Riser · +1.20 · No. 31 to No. 28

Arizona didn’t score a touchdown against the Rams. It won anyway. Chad Ryland drilled six field goals, including a 43-yarder as time expired, to give the Cardinals an 18-16 road victory. Mike LaFleur’s team was down 16-15 with less than a minute left after Matthew Stafford found Colby Parkinson for a late touchdown, but Arizona had enough time to get Ryland one more chance.

The Cardinals’ defense deserves just as much credit as their kicker. Josh Sweat and Budda Baker got to Stafford, Arizona forced two turnovers on downs, and the Rams struggled to move the ball for most of the afternoon. Jacoby Brissett and the offense had five red-zone trips without a touchdown, so this wasn’t the kind of win that settles any questions about finishing drives.

PFM bumped Arizona three places, from No. 31 to No. 28, after a 1.20-point Team Score gain. That makes sense for a team that went on the road and knocked off a highly rated opponent. It doesn’t suddenly make Arizona a contender. LaFleur needs to turn all those trips near the goal line into touchdowns, because Ryland won’t bail the offense out six times every Sunday.

3. Bryce Young Went Into Philadelphia and Took Over the Game

Riser · +1.17 · No. 24 to No. 21

Carolina didn’t just take advantage of a struggling Eagles team. Bryce Young went into Philadelphia and led a 25-14 win with 281 passing yards, his fifth straight game this season with at least 225. The Panthers kept the Eagles chasing, and Young even drew a crucial fourth-down offside with his hard count to keep a scoring drive alive. Those are the little plays that change road games.

Jalen Coker caught six passes for 97 yards, and Tommy Tremble caught both of Young’s touchdown throws. Carolina also wore down Philadelphia after halftime, with the Eagles giving up more than 100 rushing yards in the second half after holding the Panthers to 24 before the break. Dave Canales got production from his quarterback, his pass catchers and a ground game that got stronger late.

The Panthers climbed from No. 24 to No. 21 in PFM’s new order. That is still the lower half of the league, and one road win doesn’t erase the defense’s uneven stretches or questions about roster depth. But this is the type of game Carolina has needed from Young: make smart throws, handle the noise and finish drives when the chance is there. The Panthers are starting to give opponents a tougher afternoon.

4. Without Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Has a Much Smaller Margin for Error

Biggest faller · -3.48 · No. 18 to No. 24

Philadelphia’s biggest problem isn’t hard to find. Jalen Hurts is on injured reserve after doctors discovered a blood clot in his calf, and the Eagles are now preparing to play the rest of the season without their starting quarterback. Tanner McKee took over against Carolina, but Philadelphia managed just 14 points in a 25-14 home loss. That was the Eagles’ fourth straight defeat.

McKee threw for 215 yards and a touchdown without turning the ball over, so this wasn’t about one bad quarterback play. Philadelphia rushed for only 35 yards with Saquon Barkley unavailable, and the offense kept putting itself in difficult situations. Nick Sirianni still has talent on this roster, but asking McKee to carry a one-dimensional attack while the team keeps making mistakes is asking a lot.

PFM cut Philadelphia by 3.48 points, easily the largest drop in the October 20 update, and the Eagles now sit No. 24. The score reflects more than one loss: losing Hurts changes what the offense can reasonably do each week.

5. Trevor Lawrence Delivered Four Touchdowns. The Defense Couldn’t Finish.

Faller · -1.28 · No. 7 to No. 9

Trevor Lawrence threw four touchdowns in London. Jacksonville still lost 34-31 to Houston. That tells you where the Jaguars’ afternoon went wrong. C.J. Stroud threw three touchdowns, and the Texans rolled up 426 yards against a Jacksonville defense that entered the game among the league’s best at keeping points off the board.

Travis Hunter nearly rescued the day on both sides of the ball. He caught a fourth-quarter touchdown and intercepted Stroud in the end zone, while Cam Little’s 60-yard field goal tied the game with under two minutes left. But Jacksonville couldn’t keep Houston out of scoring range, and Ka’imi Fairbairn won it with a 49-yard field goal as time expired. Liam Coen got the late response he wanted from his offense, not the final stop he needed from his defense.

PFM dropped the Jaguars from No. 7 to No. 9. That’s a meaningful setback, not a reason to throw out a 4-2 start. Jacksonville can score with good teams when Lawrence is playing this way. The question going into the Week 7 bye is whether its defense can hold up when a quarterback gets hot and the game comes down to one final possession.

6. Sam Darnold’s Turnovers Cost Seattle Another Winnable Game

Faller · -0.97 · Held No. 3

Seattle had already climbed out of an 11-point fourth-quarter hole in Denver. Then Sam Darnold threw an interception in overtime, and the Broncos cashed it in for a 17-14 win. Darnold was picked off twice in the game and has now thrown six of his seven interceptions this season in Seattle’s three losses. It’s a pattern Mike Macdonald can’t keep watching without concern.

The frustrating part for the Seahawks is how well their defense responded. After Denver’s two early touchdown drives, Seattle allowed only two second-half first downs and helped drag the game into overtime. The offense scored just three points through three quarters, allowed five sacks and couldn’t turn that defensive effort into a victory. That’s why the loss falls on the offense more than the final score suggests.

Seattle lost 0.97 points in PFM’s update but stayed No. 3, which says plenty about the roster around Darnold. The Seahawks still have one of the highest-rated defenses in football. To remain in that conversation, they need their quarterback and protection to stop giving opponents extra chances in close games. The difference between 3-3 and a much better start isn’t hard to find.

1. Jordan Love Cut It Loose, and Chicago Had No Answer

Biggest riser · +2.53 · No. 16 to No. 13

Green Bay had spent the first month making its offense look much harder than it should. Then Jordan Love went 25-of-31 for 367 yards and two touchdowns against Chicago, and the Packers beat the Bears 31-7. Christian Watson was the difference-maker downfield with six catches for 143 yards and both scores. This was not a game Green Bay squeaked out against a division rival. It took control of it.

The first touchdown drive told the story. Backed up at its own 9, Green Bay marched 91 yards and finished with a 42-yard play-action strike from Love to Watson. That matters because the Packers had not scored more than 22 points in any of their first four games. The defense helped turn the win into a blowout with five takeaways, but the offense finally gave Chicago something it could not sit back and wait to stop.

PFM moved Green Bay from No. 16 to No. 13, the biggest Team Score gain of the week. It is still not a finished product. Matt LaFleur needs this version of Love and the passing game to show up against opponents that will not hand Green Bay five turnovers. But Week 5 answered a real question: when Green Bay attacks instead of playing not to make a mistake, this offense has a much higher ceiling.

2. Baltimore Found a Way to Win the Game Without Lamar Jackson

Riser · +1.46 · No. 11 to No. 9

Baltimore was down eight in Atlanta with less than three minutes left. Lamar Jackson was out with an ankle injury, and the game was in Tyler Huntley’s hands. He led the drive that forced overtime, then finished the job with a quarterback sneak for the go-ahead touchdown. Kyle Hamilton’s interception ended it. That is a 30-23 road win the Ravens had every opportunity to lose.

Huntley completed 24 of 32 passes for 201 yards and two touchdowns, and he did not throw an interception. He was 12-for-12 through the fourth quarter and overtime, exactly when Baltimore needed him. Derrick Henry ran for 102 yards, giving Huntley enough help to avoid turning every down into a desperate throw. The Ravens made plays with their backup quarterback, their run game and their defense rather than waiting for Jackson to rescue them.

Moving to No. 9 is not PFM saying Huntley makes the Ravens better than Jackson does. Jackson’s injury still limits their ceiling, and the availability concern remains part of the rating. What changed is how much trust Baltimore earned around the quarterback. A team that can win this kind of game on the road with its starter watching has more than one way to survive a difficult Sunday.

3. Burrow Threw Four Touchdowns. Cincinnati Still Made It Close.

Riser · +1.43 · No. 13 to No. 12

Cincinnati needed Joe Burrow to settle this offense down after consecutive losses. He threw four touchdown passes in Miami, hitting four different receivers in a 31-24 win. Ja’Marr Chase returned from concussion protocol and caught six passes for 77 yards, including the 45-yard touchdown that made it 28-10 in the third quarter. That was the version of Burrow’s passing game Cincinnati needed to see again.

The Bengals also got real help from their defense early. Jordan Battle intercepted Malik Willis on back-to-back possessions in the second quarter, and Cincinnati went into halftime up 21-7. But here is why this was a one-spot rise instead of a jump into the top five: Miami rushed for 217 yards and turned an 18-point deficit into a one-score finish. The Bengals won; they did not finish off a winless opponent as cleanly as they should have.

PFM has Cincinnati at No. 12 because Burrow and Chase remain high-end answers, not because all the problems are solved. The offense can still put a game in its hands quickly. The defense and the sideline have to do more to keep it there. Cincinnati goes into its Week 6 bye with a needed win, but also with plenty to clean up before the trip to Baltimore.

4. Tampa Bay Won, but the Quarterback Situation Got Worse

Biggest faller · -2.65 · No. 21 to No. 25

Tampa Bay finally got its first win, 24-16 in Dallas, and still took the biggest PFM Team Score hit of the week. That sounds backward until you separate the result from the quarterback situation. Rookie Jalon Daniels did his job in his second start. He threw for 189 yards and a touchdown, Bucky Irving ran for 165 yards, and the Buccaneers piled up 241 rushing yards while the defense helped create three takeaways.

The problem is that one encouraging Thursday night does not erase Baker Mayfield’s dislocated thumb on his throwing hand. Mayfield has already missed two games, and Tampa Bay’s October 13 rating now reflects the risk of being without its established starter for multiple weeks. Daniels deserved credit for managing Dallas, but the Bucs needed Irving’s career night and a strong ground game to take pressure off a rookie who is still learning on the job.

PFM dropped Tampa Bay from No. 21 to No. 25 because quarterback availability changes how much of this offense can be trusted from week to week. If Mayfield gets back healthy, that picture can improve. Until then, the Bucs have a win to build on, but they are still 1-4 and asking a rookie quarterback and the running game to carry more than anyone planned.

5. The Chargers Had Their First Win in Sight. Then Came the Fourth Quarter.

Faller · -2.50 · No. 14 to No. 19

The Chargers led Denver 17-10 entering the fourth quarter, and for a few minutes it looked as if Jim Harbaugh’s team was finally going to get its first win. Instead, Los Angeles lost 23-17 and fell to 0-5. A failed fourth-down attempt gave Denver life. Justin Herbert then lost a fumble with the score tied and threw an interception on the next possession. Both turnovers helped hand Denver the field position it needed to finish the comeback.

This has gone well past one ugly fourth quarter. The Chargers had three rookie offensive linemen making their first NFL starts, with Joe Alt unavailable, and they were also missing Derwin James and Quentin Johnston. That matters. But injuries do not explain every decision or every empty possession. Two third-quarter touchdowns had the Chargers in front, including Kimani Vidal’s 42-yard run. They came away empty in the fourth and let another divisional game slip through their hands.

PFM took 2.50 points off the Chargers and moved them from No. 14 to No. 19. Herbert is still talented enough to make this team dangerous, and the defense has kept games close enough to win. But a team with five losses in five tries cannot keep getting credit for the game it looks capable of playing. At some point, Harbaugh’s Chargers have to finish one.

6. The Rams Put Up 34 Points and Still Let It Get Away

Faller · -2.45 · Held No. 4

Matthew Stafford threw for 383 yards and three touchdowns Monday night. Puka Nacua caught 17 passes for 138 yards and a score. Los Angeles had enough offense to beat Buffalo, came back to tie the game with five seconds left, and still lost 37-34 in overtime. Harrison Mevis missed a first-quarter field goal, then had a 48-yard attempt blocked in overtime with the Rams one kick from winning.

That is what makes this loss so frustrating. The Rams forced a James Cook fumble on Buffalo’s first overtime possession, got the ball back and moved into field-goal range. They had recovered from a late seven-point deficit and gotten the exact turnover they needed. Then the kick failed, Josh Allen made the most of a second chance and Tyler Bass ended it from 45 yards.

PFM cut Los Angeles by 2.45 points, yet the Rams stayed No. 4. That is the distinction worth understanding. The ranking still respects Sean McVay, Stafford and the talent on this offense. The score drop reflects how far a 2-3 team has moved from its early-season standard. Scoring 34 against Buffalo is impressive. It means a lot less when the game was there to finish and the Rams could not close it out.