By: Zach Owen

Before jumping into the players, I want to address a pretty big change for the upcoming season. The 2021 NFL season will have 17 games this year. One game might not sound like much but it will impact all kinds of statistics this year. The obvious takeaway is that more games means more yards, passes, receptions, touchdowns, etc. for everyone. Don’t get too excited though; it’s not all sunshine and rainbows. Football is a tough sport and most teams aren’t going to run their big money players into the ground, especially if they are playoff hopefuls. Expect some amount of snap management from coaches, especially for RBs. More NFL teams are already starting to move towards a RBBC setup anyways. Now with an extra game, I only expect that type of usage to go up. You can also expect some more injuries with an extra game. That could happen to anyone at any time though so trying to predict them will be very difficult. With those notes, let’s look at some players.

Javonte Williams

Bottom line up front, I expect all rookies to get used more often this year due to the extra game. They are younger, fresher, and generally have had less injuries than the vets. So, despite joining Melvin Gordon, a strong veteran RB, Javonte Williams is in a position to break the 1,000 yard mark this year. They will definitely start off in a timeshare but I expect the ball will get spread out enough for him to get there. I am also a pretty big fan of Williams in general and expect him to take over a majority of the snaps as the season goes on. This isn’t so much a knock on Gordon as it is praise for Williams. Gordon performed well last year, coming in at 986 rushing yards while missing a game. The return of Courtland Sutton should also open up the Denver offense which helps. So the opportunity is there for the Denver RBs to get a lot of yards in.

Mike Davis

On the other end of the age spectrum is Mike Davis. In games where he started last year when Christian McCaffrey was injured, Davis averaged 53 yards per game. Now that is short of what he would need this year to break the 1,000 yard mark (59 is the number to get) but he’s on a team to do it. First, the Falcons have one of the most dangerous passing games in the league. Matt Ryan is still a great QB and his receiving weapons are insane with Julio, Ridley, Pitts, Gage, and Hurst. Teams are going to have to defend the pass or get torched. That leaves the running game wide open for Mike Davis to pump out some extra yards each game. The Falcons new head coach Arthur Smith, previous OC of the Titans, also knows how to use a RB. Derrick Henry ran for 2,000 yards last year under Smith. While Davis is obviously not Henry, Smith will take advantage of Davis’ skills. Davis will get a lot of receiving work in, which he excelled at last year, but he’ll be a solid threat on the ground as well.

Chris Carson

Chris Carson is another veteran that I could see taking advantage of a hopeful situation. Not counting the game he got injured, Carson averaged 58 yards per game last year. This was right on the cusp of where he would need to be this year to break the 1,000 mark. He’s another RB in a strong passing game offense with Wilson, Metcalf, Lockett, and the newly added Eskridge and Everett. Also, Pete Carroll (their head coach) said he wants to run the ball more which is good news for Carson. Now the return of Rashaad Penny could be good news or bad news for Carson but I see it as a positive. Penny has dealt with injuries for most of his career. So despite his abilities, I don’t expect him to take the reins away from Carson. Carson got paid $10M over the next two years which to me is not backup money. So Penny, if he plays, should actually help Carson out to help keep them both fresh and hopefully injury free.

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The NFL draft has officially come and gone. As usual, it has shaken up the Fantasy landscape for pretty much every team. There’s some obvious risers and fallers and plenty of rookies to evaluate and take gambles on. Today though I’m going to be looking at some WRs that I would be looking to trade away as I could see their value falling soon.

Seahawks WRs (DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett)

So Seattle had three picks in this year’s draft: a 2nd round, 4th round, and 6th round. That’s really not a lot to work with so you would think they want to address what they think their most pressing need is early. So who did they use their 2nd round pick on? D’Wayne Eskridge, a WR out of Western Michigan. Now Eskridge isn’t an insane prospect, he definitely has his question marks, but Seattle using their only early pick on a WR should definitely throw up some warning flags. That coupled with the addition of Gerald Everett at TE and the Seahawks failed attempt to “Let Russ Cook” last year has me questioning how many targets everyone will be getting next year. Maybe Eskridge is just a depth piece though as the WR room behind Lockett and Metcalf was pretty bare. Still, there’s enough question marks there to make me want to shop these two around and see what I can get. Don’t go selling them for peanuts, they both will still produce, but if you can move them for someone with less question marks in the same range then I’d strongly consider it. For Metcalf I’d be looking for someone like Tyreek Hill, Ceedee Lamb plus something, Russell Wilson in SF, or get a bundle back with your favorite rookie plus some. Plenty of options there with someone as valuable as Metcalf. For Lockett, I’d aim for guys like Michael Pittman, Dallas Goedert, Kareem Hunt, or a 2021 late 1st round draft pick.

Davante Adams

In Adams’ case, I’m not very worried about how the draft went for Green Bay. They only used a 3rd round pick on a WR and there really wasn’t much competition in Green Bay to start with so Adams should still get plenty of targets. My issue is with the current state of the QB position in Green Bay. If you weren’t aware, Aaron Rodgers has had some issues with the Green Bay front office and now there’s questions about whether or not he will play again in Green Bay. Now whether or not that will happen is another story but again, I’d be looking to move Adams to try to mitigate risk. Nobody knows for certain what’s going to happen and I do still expect Adams to perform really well regardless of who he has at QB. Selling Adams now is strictly a move to try and maximize his value just in case the worst should happen. Plus he is 28 so while he’s currently in his prime, his value will likely start to fall off within the next couple years anyways. I value Adams and Metcalf similarly so I’d be looking to make the same types of trades. Adams might be harder to move though because most people have probably heard about the Rodgers story by now and will have similar concerns. Still, throw him up on the trade block and see what you can do. 

Summary

Long story short, I like all three of these players and I’m not desperate to trade them, but there are some question marks for each of them. It’s all about risk/value management. Managing the risk of whether or not any player’s value will go up, down, or stay the same is a big factor for being successful in Fantasy Football. Could any of these player’s values go up? Sure, but I think it’s more likely for it to go down which is why I’d be selling them if I could.

The post Fantasy: 3 WRs to Trade Away appeared first on Pro Football Mania.

By: Zach Owen

A string of major injuries coupled with some less than stellar play led to a pretty disappointing year for San Francisco, especially coming off a Super Bowl run in 2019. They still have a solid defense, with young stars like Nick Bosa and Fred Warner, but their offense needs to figure some things out. Fortunately, after trading up to the third pick, SF is primed to take a top-tier rookie QB (though who it will be though is a topic for another article). In addition to a new shiny QB though, they’re going to need some other offensive players to take a step up. Let’s take a look at some players SF should be hopeful about in 2021.

Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk

Deebo Samuel was one of the players taken out with injuries in 2020. In the games he played though, he was a player you wanted to get the ball to. He had 401 YAC in just 33 receptions which is an insane 12.1 YAC/rec. This was the first out of all players with at least 20 receptions in 2020 (with second coming in at 10.1 YAC/rec). If that doesn’t convince you how much of a YAC monster he was, how about the fact that he had more YAC (401) than he did total receiving yards (391)?  Basically, Samuel is a real playmaker with the ball in his hands, no question about it. The injuries (including a foot fracture that required surgery) could definitely have an impact but if Samuel comes back healthy, he will be a difference-maker for SF.

Now Aiyuk had a couple of minor injuries last year as well but only ever missed one game at a time from them. With George Kittle and Samuel missing multiple games, Aiyuk stepped up and became the #1 that SF needed. During weeks where Kittle and Samuel were out and Aiyuk played (weeks 10, 14, and 15) Aiyuk’s per-game averages were 14.3 targets, 8.6 receptions, and 89 yards. It’s a very very small sample size but a 14.3 target average would have put him 1st overall in 2020 with 2nd place being Stefon Diggs at 10.4. He’s got a bit of work to do on his efficiency with 6.2 yards per target and 60% catch rate during those three games but he was just a rookie (during the COVID season) and showed he has the skills to be a big player when needed.

SF is going to have a scary receiving corps over the next few years with Kittle, Samuel, and Aiyuk primed and ready to ball out. Whichever QB they draft at #3 is going to be set up to succeed right out of the gate.

Jeff Wilson and Wayne Gallman

On the other side of the offense, it looks like SF is set up to go with an RB by committee approach again in 2021. They have three RBs that all have performed reasonably well when given the opportunity but none of them really scream lead RB. Both Wilson and Gallman came in for an injured lead back last year and actually performed pretty well. Wilson had multiple 100+ rushing yard weeks and Gallman had a five-game streak where he averaged over 80 yards per game (which would have put him 4th overall last year in yards per game).

Mostert did start off hot in Weeks 1 and 2 but got injured and never really got back to full form. He does seem to have the highest receiving ceiling of the three so I expect him to play a decent amount. He is 29 though so, in addition to his injuries, I expect him to lose his top spot to either Wilson or Gallman. Naming either of those two as a “breakout candidate” would probably be exaggerating a bit but I do expect one, or both, of these guys to take a step up from last year. Regardless, SF is set up with a pretty solid RB committee which should be more than enough considering their stout defense and really exciting receiving group.

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The 2021 rookie class has plenty of good receiving talent, with multiple first round wide receivers and an elite tight end. Will the Eagles be a team looking to draft one of these top players? Probably, but let’s see what they’re working with. 

Current Pass Catchers

Current Picks

So to recap their situation, the Eagles definitely need some help in the receiving department despite putting a decent amount of draft capital into it recently. It seems like Ertz will be leaving this year so that really only leaves Reagor and Goedert as serviceable players. Obviously the Justin Jefferson vs Reagor situation is pretty disappointing for the Eagles but I’m not going to shut the door quite yet on Reagor. Still, the Eagles should be looking to boost up their squad if they have the opportunity. Fortunately, they have plenty of draft picks to work with.

On the other hand there are multiple other teams ahead of them that could be looking to draft a pass catcher early as well. I expect any number of these teams could get in the way of the Eagles in the first round: Falcons (#4, specifically for Kyle Pitts), Bengals (#5), Dolphins (#6), and Lions (#7). I doubt all four of these teams will draft a pass catcher (I expect 2 or 3 of them will) but they could. Also to note, the Eagles originally had the #6 draft pick before trading back so it looks like they are comfortable missing out on the top options. For argument’s sake though, let’s look at some of the players I think the Eagles could take in the first couple rounds. 

I want to start by saying the 2020 college season was really weird, but I’m sure you already know that. It’s going to be harder to properly evaluate a lot of players (not just receivers) because of the weird schedules, players opting out, and everything else that went on last year. That being said, these are some of my favorite pass catchers for the 2021 class, with Ja’Marr Chase and Kyle Pitts being a step above the rest. They each hit a lot of the thresholds that I have found will lead to success in the NFL (including but not limited to the metrics I have here). 

*Ja’Marr Chase did not play at all in the 2020 college season so the stats listed here are from his 2019 season

Now what can we expect the Eagles to do? Well obviously if they can draft Chase or Pitts they will be in a pretty good spot. Despite opting out of the 2020 season, Ja’Marr Chase is still my #1 WR in the class. In addition to his stellar metrics, Chase is a playmaker. He has burst and vertical speed. He’s a ball magnet and wins a lot of 50/50 balls. He’s dangerous with the ball in his hands and easily turns scramble drills into big plays. The list goes on and on. He does have some issues with route-running and his release but those can be coached. He’s proven he has the ability to be an all-star in the NFL and whatever team gets him will be in really good shape, including the Eagles.

Now Pitts has a similar story. He was a scoring machine in college with 12 receiving TDs in 2020 (in 8 games) which was 3rd among all college players (including WRs). He’s a matchup nightmare who has speed, size, and contested catch ability. He’s a pure athlete who does work all over the field. He’s not much of a blocker but teams shouldn’t be drafting Kyle Pitts to be a blocking TE. The Eagles already have Goedert but picking up Pitts to have two big guys to go with their current smaller receiving group would be great. They’ve had success with two TEs in recent years too and they could keep that going. 

So if the Eagles can end up with Chase or Pitts at #12 their receiving group takes a huge step up. As I mentioned earlier though, I expect at least 2 of these rookies to be gone by the time the Eagles pick which probably removes them from contention for Chase and Pitts. In theory they could trade up to grab one of those guys but they already traded back out of the #6 pick which makes that pretty unlikely. Assuming only those two are gone, I would be fine drafting Smith at #12. He has his question marks but it’s hard to ignore what he did last year. 

Given that they already traded back though, I expect the Eagles will be looking for some value picks in day 2. They can take the first round to boost up their defense (CB namely) and grab one or two WRs on day 2 of the draft. There are plenty of options but the other four guys I mentioned before are the guys I would be looking at. I’d be pretty happy if the Eagles used their #37 on Terrace Marshall specifically. He also hits on a lot of the metrics I like and I think he could be a pretty could value pick at #37. Marshall is another big, fast, and just an overall talented player. He led LSU in receptions and TDs despite opting out of the final 3 games. He’s had some issues with lack of focus and lack of drive which could hurt him but the talent is there if he’s willing to put in the time. The Eagles could then add some depth with one of their 3rd round picks if they want to and hopefully be set at WR for a bit. 

They could also be in the running in 2022 to pick up a Free Agent if they want to take this year to develop their current squad. They have the option to start a small rebuild if they want to wait and see if Hurts and Reagor are the real deal and reevaluate next year. Long story short, the Eagles have the flexibility to take the team in multiple different directions depending on their expectation for the team over the next couple years. 

I hope this information was helpful. If you have any questions or comments, feel free to DM me on Twitter @NeutralZoneFF.

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Putting together a reliable RB room has become a difficult task for many NFL teams out there. You obviously want one of the generational talents if you can get them but the Saquon Barkleys of the world don’t just come along every year (hence the “generational” title). Arizona is one of the teams that need some help in the RB department but their options are limited. 

Unfortunately, this year’s free agency pool for RBs was pretty shallow. You’d have called me crazy if I had said that a couple of years ago with names like Todd Gurley, James Conner, Leonard Fournette, and Le’Veon Bell available but things change fast for RBs in the NFL. Big-name Arizona could have come away with was Aaron Jones, and they had the cap space to do it, but it didn’t pan out. So Arizona can try their luck with one of the questionable free agents I mentioned earlier but they already tried that last year with Kenyan Drake which didn’t really work out. Given that and them being a younger team, I think looking to the draft will work out better for them even if they don’t have a whole lot to work with. The 2021 picks they currently have are a first (16), second (49), fifth (160), and two sevenths (243 and 247). They have the option to pick up someone in the fifth round if they really like Chase Edmonds but if I was Arizona, I would be looking to pick one of the top guys in the first two rounds (sorry Edmonds owners).

Of the top RBs, Najee Harris would be my #1 for Arizona if they want to use a first round pick. He’s a hard runner and a good pass catcher, both of which they could use. I think picking him up at #16 could be a bit early but not completely crazy. If they don’t want to use #16 on him though, things get a bit awkward. There are a few of other teams that could be looking to snag a RB between Arizona’s two picks (notably Miami, Pittsburgh, and Atlanta who have picks #18, #24, and #35 respectively). So Harris making it past all three seems pretty unlikely. I don’t really think Miami will draft a RB with their #18 pick so I could see Arizona trading back into the early 20s to pick up Harris pretty safely while adding to their depleted draft picks. Remember, they have no third, fourth, or sixth round picks this year and though they aren’t in a full rebuild, they are a younger team that could use more picks.

With the other options available though (notably Javonte Williams, Travis Etienne, and Kenneth Gainwell) trying to thread the needle on Harris might not be worth it for Arizona. They have the opportunity to take a good CB with their first pick (another big need of theirs) or see what pass catcher they can get in that area. They could possibly trade up for Kyle Pitts (they do need TE help too) but that seems unlikely with how high up it looks like they will need to get to. So they do have options if they don’t want to take a RB with their first pick. 

As for their round two RB options, I don’t see all four that I mentioned being taken before #49. So picking up their favorite of whoever is left will still put them in a good position. As good as Harris would be for Arizona, drafting a RB in round two makes the most sense to me. Their offense focuses on Kyler Murray (both in passing and rushing) and they already have Edmonds who is at least a serviceable RB so I don’t expect them to put much draft capital into a rookie RB. They still need some help though and there should be enough value in the second to fill that gap. Who it will mostly depend on who drops that far. My hope would be for them to get a good pass-catching RB to help Murray in his scramble drills so I’d be aiming for a guy like Etienne. We’ll just have to see though what direction they want to take things.

Anything you liked or disliked about this article? Feel free to message me on Twitter @NeutralZoneFF.

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