1. Caleb Williams Came Back, and Chicago Looked Like a Different Offense

Biggest riser · +2.10 · No. 8 to No. 4

Chicago needed Caleb Williams back, and it took all of two drives to see why. After missing three games with a hamstring injury, Williams opened 10-of-10 for 122 yards and a touchdown against Atlanta. He finished 30-of-36 for 305 yards without an interception. The Bears won 31-23, and their offense finally had its starting quarterback making the throws Ben Johnson designed it to make.

Kyler Gordon gave Chicago an equally important return on defense. Playing his first game of the season, Gordon finished with three sacks and two forced fumbles. His late strip-sack of Michael Penix Jr. shut down Atlanta’s comeback after the Falcons had cut a 31-7 deficit to eight points. Chicago had built the lead with Williams, D’Andre Swift and Roschon Johnson finding the end zone, then needed Gordon to protect it.

PFM’s biggest gain of the week takes the Bears from No. 8 to No. 4. That’s a real jump, and the return of their quarterback is the biggest reason for it. There is still work to do: 12 penalties for 133 yards and a fourth-quarter scare are not how Johnson wants to finish games. But with Williams healthy and Gordon back in the secondary, Chicago has more ways to win than it did a week ago.

2. Six Field Goals Were Enough, but Arizona Still Has an Offensive Problem

Riser · +1.20 · No. 31 to No. 28

Arizona didn’t score a touchdown against the Rams. It won anyway. Chad Ryland drilled six field goals, including a 43-yarder as time expired, to give the Cardinals an 18-16 road victory. Mike LaFleur’s team was down 16-15 with less than a minute left after Matthew Stafford found Colby Parkinson for a late touchdown, but Arizona had enough time to get Ryland one more chance.

The Cardinals’ defense deserves just as much credit as their kicker. Josh Sweat and Budda Baker got to Stafford, Arizona forced two turnovers on downs, and the Rams struggled to move the ball for most of the afternoon. Jacoby Brissett and the offense had five red-zone trips without a touchdown, so this wasn’t the kind of win that settles any questions about finishing drives.

PFM bumped Arizona three places, from No. 31 to No. 28, after a 1.20-point Team Score gain. That makes sense for a team that went on the road and knocked off a highly rated opponent. It doesn’t suddenly make Arizona a contender. LaFleur needs to turn all those trips near the goal line into touchdowns, because Ryland won’t bail the offense out six times every Sunday.

3. Bryce Young Went Into Philadelphia and Took Over the Game

Riser · +1.17 · No. 24 to No. 21

Carolina didn’t just take advantage of a struggling Eagles team. Bryce Young went into Philadelphia and led a 25-14 win with 281 passing yards, his fifth straight game this season with at least 225. The Panthers kept the Eagles chasing, and Young even drew a crucial fourth-down offside with his hard count to keep a scoring drive alive. Those are the little plays that change road games.

Jalen Coker caught six passes for 97 yards, and Tommy Tremble caught both of Young’s touchdown throws. Carolina also wore down Philadelphia after halftime, with the Eagles giving up more than 100 rushing yards in the second half after holding the Panthers to 24 before the break. Dave Canales got production from his quarterback, his pass catchers and a ground game that got stronger late.

The Panthers climbed from No. 24 to No. 21 in PFM’s new order. That is still the lower half of the league, and one road win doesn’t erase the defense’s uneven stretches or questions about roster depth. But this is the type of game Carolina has needed from Young: make smart throws, handle the noise and finish drives when the chance is there. The Panthers are starting to give opponents a tougher afternoon.

4. Without Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Has a Much Smaller Margin for Error

Biggest faller · -3.48 · No. 18 to No. 24

Philadelphia’s biggest problem isn’t hard to find. Jalen Hurts is on injured reserve after doctors discovered a blood clot in his calf, and the Eagles are now preparing to play the rest of the season without their starting quarterback. Tanner McKee took over against Carolina, but Philadelphia managed just 14 points in a 25-14 home loss. That was the Eagles’ fourth straight defeat.

McKee threw for 215 yards and a touchdown without turning the ball over, so this wasn’t about one bad quarterback play. Philadelphia rushed for only 35 yards with Saquon Barkley unavailable, and the offense kept putting itself in difficult situations. Nick Sirianni still has talent on this roster, but asking McKee to carry a one-dimensional attack while the team keeps making mistakes is asking a lot.

PFM cut Philadelphia by 3.48 points, easily the largest drop in the October 20 update, and the Eagles now sit No. 24. The score reflects more than one loss: losing Hurts changes what the offense can reasonably do each week.

5. Trevor Lawrence Delivered Four Touchdowns. The Defense Couldn’t Finish.

Faller · -1.28 · No. 7 to No. 9

Trevor Lawrence threw four touchdowns in London. Jacksonville still lost 34-31 to Houston. That tells you where the Jaguars’ afternoon went wrong. C.J. Stroud threw three touchdowns, and the Texans rolled up 426 yards against a Jacksonville defense that entered the game among the league’s best at keeping points off the board.

Travis Hunter nearly rescued the day on both sides of the ball. He caught a fourth-quarter touchdown and intercepted Stroud in the end zone, while Cam Little’s 60-yard field goal tied the game with under two minutes left. But Jacksonville couldn’t keep Houston out of scoring range, and Ka’imi Fairbairn won it with a 49-yard field goal as time expired. Liam Coen got the late response he wanted from his offense, not the final stop he needed from his defense.

PFM dropped the Jaguars from No. 7 to No. 9. That’s a meaningful setback, not a reason to throw out a 4-2 start. Jacksonville can score with good teams when Lawrence is playing this way. The question going into the Week 7 bye is whether its defense can hold up when a quarterback gets hot and the game comes down to one final possession.

6. Sam Darnold’s Turnovers Cost Seattle Another Winnable Game

Faller · -0.97 · Held No. 3

Seattle had already climbed out of an 11-point fourth-quarter hole in Denver. Then Sam Darnold threw an interception in overtime, and the Broncos cashed it in for a 17-14 win. Darnold was picked off twice in the game and has now thrown six of his seven interceptions this season in Seattle’s three losses. It’s a pattern Mike Macdonald can’t keep watching without concern.

The frustrating part for the Seahawks is how well their defense responded. After Denver’s two early touchdown drives, Seattle allowed only two second-half first downs and helped drag the game into overtime. The offense scored just three points through three quarters, allowed five sacks and couldn’t turn that defensive effort into a victory. That’s why the loss falls on the offense more than the final score suggests.

Seattle lost 0.97 points in PFM’s update but stayed No. 3, which says plenty about the roster around Darnold. The Seahawks still have one of the highest-rated defenses in football. To remain in that conversation, they need their quarterback and protection to stop giving opponents extra chances in close games. The difference between 3-3 and a much better start isn’t hard to find.

1. Jordan Love Cut It Loose, and Chicago Had No Answer

Biggest riser · +2.53 · No. 16 to No. 13

Green Bay had spent the first month making its offense look much harder than it should. Then Jordan Love went 25-of-31 for 367 yards and two touchdowns against Chicago, and the Packers beat the Bears 31-7. Christian Watson was the difference-maker downfield with six catches for 143 yards and both scores. This was not a game Green Bay squeaked out against a division rival. It took control of it.

The first touchdown drive told the story. Backed up at its own 9, Green Bay marched 91 yards and finished with a 42-yard play-action strike from Love to Watson. That matters because the Packers had not scored more than 22 points in any of their first four games. The defense helped turn the win into a blowout with five takeaways, but the offense finally gave Chicago something it could not sit back and wait to stop.

PFM moved Green Bay from No. 16 to No. 13, the biggest Team Score gain of the week. It is still not a finished product. Matt LaFleur needs this version of Love and the passing game to show up against opponents that will not hand Green Bay five turnovers. But Week 5 answered a real question: when Green Bay attacks instead of playing not to make a mistake, this offense has a much higher ceiling.

2. Baltimore Found a Way to Win the Game Without Lamar Jackson

Riser · +1.46 · No. 11 to No. 9

Baltimore was down eight in Atlanta with less than three minutes left. Lamar Jackson was out with an ankle injury, and the game was in Tyler Huntley’s hands. He led the drive that forced overtime, then finished the job with a quarterback sneak for the go-ahead touchdown. Kyle Hamilton’s interception ended it. That is a 30-23 road win the Ravens had every opportunity to lose.

Huntley completed 24 of 32 passes for 201 yards and two touchdowns, and he did not throw an interception. He was 12-for-12 through the fourth quarter and overtime, exactly when Baltimore needed him. Derrick Henry ran for 102 yards, giving Huntley enough help to avoid turning every down into a desperate throw. The Ravens made plays with their backup quarterback, their run game and their defense rather than waiting for Jackson to rescue them.

Moving to No. 9 is not PFM saying Huntley makes the Ravens better than Jackson does. Jackson’s injury still limits their ceiling, and the availability concern remains part of the rating. What changed is how much trust Baltimore earned around the quarterback. A team that can win this kind of game on the road with its starter watching has more than one way to survive a difficult Sunday.

3. Burrow Threw Four Touchdowns. Cincinnati Still Made It Close.

Riser · +1.43 · No. 13 to No. 12

Cincinnati needed Joe Burrow to settle this offense down after consecutive losses. He threw four touchdown passes in Miami, hitting four different receivers in a 31-24 win. Ja’Marr Chase returned from concussion protocol and caught six passes for 77 yards, including the 45-yard touchdown that made it 28-10 in the third quarter. That was the version of Burrow’s passing game Cincinnati needed to see again.

The Bengals also got real help from their defense early. Jordan Battle intercepted Malik Willis on back-to-back possessions in the second quarter, and Cincinnati went into halftime up 21-7. But here is why this was a one-spot rise instead of a jump into the top five: Miami rushed for 217 yards and turned an 18-point deficit into a one-score finish. The Bengals won; they did not finish off a winless opponent as cleanly as they should have.

PFM has Cincinnati at No. 12 because Burrow and Chase remain high-end answers, not because all the problems are solved. The offense can still put a game in its hands quickly. The defense and the sideline have to do more to keep it there. Cincinnati goes into its Week 6 bye with a needed win, but also with plenty to clean up before the trip to Baltimore.

4. Tampa Bay Won, but the Quarterback Situation Got Worse

Biggest faller · -2.65 · No. 21 to No. 25

Tampa Bay finally got its first win, 24-16 in Dallas, and still took the biggest PFM Team Score hit of the week. That sounds backward until you separate the result from the quarterback situation. Rookie Jalon Daniels did his job in his second start. He threw for 189 yards and a touchdown, Bucky Irving ran for 165 yards, and the Buccaneers piled up 241 rushing yards while the defense helped create three takeaways.

The problem is that one encouraging Thursday night does not erase Baker Mayfield’s dislocated thumb on his throwing hand. Mayfield has already missed two games, and Tampa Bay’s October 13 rating now reflects the risk of being without its established starter for multiple weeks. Daniels deserved credit for managing Dallas, but the Bucs needed Irving’s career night and a strong ground game to take pressure off a rookie who is still learning on the job.

PFM dropped Tampa Bay from No. 21 to No. 25 because quarterback availability changes how much of this offense can be trusted from week to week. If Mayfield gets back healthy, that picture can improve. Until then, the Bucs have a win to build on, but they are still 1-4 and asking a rookie quarterback and the running game to carry more than anyone planned.

5. The Chargers Had Their First Win in Sight. Then Came the Fourth Quarter.

Faller · -2.50 · No. 14 to No. 19

The Chargers led Denver 17-10 entering the fourth quarter, and for a few minutes it looked as if Jim Harbaugh’s team was finally going to get its first win. Instead, Los Angeles lost 23-17 and fell to 0-5. A failed fourth-down attempt gave Denver life. Justin Herbert then lost a fumble with the score tied and threw an interception on the next possession. Both turnovers helped hand Denver the field position it needed to finish the comeback.

This has gone well past one ugly fourth quarter. The Chargers had three rookie offensive linemen making their first NFL starts, with Joe Alt unavailable, and they were also missing Derwin James and Quentin Johnston. That matters. But injuries do not explain every decision or every empty possession. Two third-quarter touchdowns had the Chargers in front, including Kimani Vidal’s 42-yard run. They came away empty in the fourth and let another divisional game slip through their hands.

PFM took 2.50 points off the Chargers and moved them from No. 14 to No. 19. Herbert is still talented enough to make this team dangerous, and the defense has kept games close enough to win. But a team with five losses in five tries cannot keep getting credit for the game it looks capable of playing. At some point, Harbaugh’s Chargers have to finish one.

6. The Rams Put Up 34 Points and Still Let It Get Away

Faller · -2.45 · Held No. 4

Matthew Stafford threw for 383 yards and three touchdowns Monday night. Puka Nacua caught 17 passes for 138 yards and a score. Los Angeles had enough offense to beat Buffalo, came back to tie the game with five seconds left, and still lost 37-34 in overtime. Harrison Mevis missed a first-quarter field goal, then had a 48-yard attempt blocked in overtime with the Rams one kick from winning.

That is what makes this loss so frustrating. The Rams forced a James Cook fumble on Buffalo’s first overtime possession, got the ball back and moved into field-goal range. They had recovered from a late seven-point deficit and gotten the exact turnover they needed. Then the kick failed, Josh Allen made the most of a second chance and Tyler Bass ended it from 45 yards.

PFM cut Los Angeles by 2.45 points, yet the Rams stayed No. 4. That is the distinction worth understanding. The ranking still respects Sean McVay, Stafford and the talent on this offense. The score drop reflects how far a 2-3 team has moved from its early-season standard. Scoring 34 against Buffalo is impressive. It means a lot less when the game was there to finish and the Rams could not close it out.

1. Chicago Is Starting to Look Like More Than a Quarterback Story

Biggest riser · +1.24 · No. 10 to No. 6

Chicago has now won two straight games without Caleb Williams, and Week 4 looked less like surviving an injury than controlling a football game. Tyson Bagent threw for 268 yards in his first start since 2023, Kyle Monangai ran 30 times for 146 yards and two touchdowns, and the Bears never needed the offense to turn into a backyard scramble.

The bigger number was 492-157. That was Chicago’s edge in total yards. The Bears also won first downs 34-7 and held the ball for 42:45. The Jets went 0-for-7 on third down. One backup-quarterback win can be a fluke. Two very different wins with Keenum and Bagent starts to say something about Ben Johnson’s structure and a defense that is giving the offense room to play on schedule.

PFM moved Chicago to No. 6, but Williams still matters to the ceiling. His hamstring absence remains baked into QB Stability. What has changed is the floor. The Bears are proving they can win a game without asking the quarterback to be the entire offense.

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2. This Is the Falcons Offense They Were Supposed to Have

Riser · +1.10 · No. 22

Atlanta finally stopped making Michael Penix Jr. carry the whole idea of the offense. Bijan Robinson ripped off a 59-yard touchdown on the Falcons’ third play in New Orleans, finished with 145 rushing yards and two scores, and Brian Robinson Jr. added three more touchdowns on the ground.

Penix only needed 20 throws. He completed 15 of them for 223 yards and a touchdown while Atlanta piled up 420 total yards and five rushing scores. That is a much cleaner formula for this roster than asking Penix to create every answer from the pocket. Get the backs downhill, force the defense to react, then let the quarterback throw from a favorable picture.

The Falcons stayed No. 22 because one 45-point night does not erase an uneven opening month. The score gain matters anyway. PFM’s Explosiveness jumped more than seven points, and the offense finally gave a reason to believe the pieces can fit together instead of merely looking good on paper.

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3. The Browns Keep Winning the Same Kind of Game

Riser · +1.01 · No. 31 to No. 29

Cleveland is 3-1 after three straight wins, and the Browns are starting to build a repeatable identity. The defense sacked Aaron Rodgers five times and forced two turnovers. Then, after Pittsburgh tied the game late, Deshaun Watson put together another fourth-quarter drive and Andre Szmyt hit a 56-yard field goal with 10 seconds left.

Watson finished 24 of 33 for 268 yards. That is not a reason to suddenly treat Cleveland’s quarterback room like a strength, and PFM still has QB Stability near the bottom of the league. It is enough to change how the Browns have to be viewed, though. The defense no longer needs to drag the offense through every close game by itself.

Moving from No. 31 to No. 29 is not a victory lap. It is PFM recognizing that a team winning the same late-game formula three weeks in a row cannot keep being treated like the team that opened the season at the bottom of the board.

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4. Philadelphia’s Offense Has a Real Problem Now

Biggest faller · -3.51 · No. 7 to No. 12

Philadelphia led the Rams 20-10 at halftime and did not score again. The Eagles went 0-for-12 on third down, finished with 172 total yards and watched Los Angeles score two touchdowns in the final four minutes to steal the game.

Saquon Barkley leaving with a hamstring injury made the afternoon harder, but it cannot explain all of it. PFM’s Offense Strength dropped from 83.9 to 72.9, an 11-point fall, because the passing game still did not produce enough answers when the Rams squeezed the run game and forced Jalen Hurts to win on schedule.

The defense gave Philadelphia chances. It intercepted Matthew Stafford twice and protected the lead for most of the afternoon. The offense could not finish the job. That is why this was the week’s biggest PFM drop, not just a one-score loss that happened to go the wrong way.

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5. Detroit Can Score. It Cannot Keep Living Like This on Defense.

Faller · -2.66 · No. 6 to No. 8

Detroit put up 452 yards in Carolina and still walked out with a loss. That should tell you where the problem is. Bryce Young threw for 329 yards, Tetairoa McMillan caught 14 passes for 192 yards and two touchdowns, and the Panthers scored 32.

This is now the third time in four games Detroit has allowed at least 30 points. The offense is good enough to keep the Lions in almost any game, but that is becoming the trap. Jared Goff, Jahmyr Gibbs and the rest of the offense keep having to play as if every empty possession might be the one that loses the game.

PFM still has Detroit in the top eight because the offense, roster and coaching baseline remain strong. The defense is sitting at 70.8, and Week 4 gave that weakness another full game of evidence. At some point, scoring 26 cannot have to feel like the minimum just to stay alive.

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6. The Saints Got Run Over. Plain and Simple.

Faller · -1.81 · No. 25 to No. 30

There is no need to overcomplicate this one. Atlanta ran for 205 yards and five touchdowns. Bijan Robinson scored from 59 yards on the Falcons’ third play, and New Orleans spent the rest of the night trying to recover from a game that had already tilted toward Atlanta’s backfield.

Tyler Shough threw for 286 yards and Chris Olave had eight catches for 116, but New Orleans was forced into chase mode because the defense could not get the Falcons off schedule. PFM dropped Defense Strength from 75.5 to 68.3, the sharpest component decline behind the Saints’ five-spot fall.

Shough can give this offense some life. He cannot make a 45-point defensive day survivable. New Orleans is No. 30 because the run defense turned a division game into exactly the kind of script a young quarterback should not have to play.

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1. Washington Won Without Jayden Daniels, and the Defense Finally Took the Ball Away

Biggest riser · +2.1 · No. 21 to No. 18

Washington entered Week 3 at 0-2 without Jayden Daniels, who is working back from a dislocated left elbow, and drew the defending Super Bowl champion Seahawks. Marcus Mariota did not need to match Sam Darnold throw for throw. He needed to protect the football and cash in the extra possessions Washington’s defense finally created.

Mariota threw for 183 yards and three touchdowns without an interception, while Terry McLaurin caught six passes for 77 yards and a score. Seattle outgained Washington 437-258, but the Commanders won the turnover battle 3-0. Kain Medrano’s late pick-six turned the biggest of those mistakes directly into points.

PFM moved Washington from 76.8 to 78.9 and from No. 21 to No. 18. The yardage gap keeps this from looking like a complete turnaround, but the Commanders just beat an elite opponent with their backup quarterback. Daniels is also expected back at practice in some capacity this week, which gives Washington another reason to feel better than it did after the Dallas loss.

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2. Chicago Just Won by 20 With Its Third-String Quarterback

Riser · +1.5 · No. 12 to No. 10

Chicago did not have Caleb Williams, who was out with a Grade 2 right hamstring strain, and Tyson Bagent only came out of concussion protocol the day before the game. So Case Keenum made his first regular-season appearance since 2023 against a 2-0 Philadelphia team. The Bears did not ask him to survive the night. They controlled it.

Keenum completed 24 of 34 passes for 247 yards and two touchdowns, then added a rushing score. Chicago’s defense forced three turnovers, held Jalen Hurts to 153 passing yards and opened the second half with three straight three-and-outs. The Bears won 27-7 and never turned the game into the scramble it could have become at quarterback.

The win pushed Chicago from 81.7 to 83.2 and from No. 12 to No. 10. Williams’ hamstring still determines how high this offense can go, but Week 3 showed Ben Johnson can get through a short-term quarterback problem when the defense and run game give the offense room to operate.

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3. Kansas City Is 3-0 and Back at No. 1

Riser · +1.3 · No. 2 to No. 1

Kansas City is back where PFM expected it to be: unbeaten and sitting at No. 1. The Chiefs did not bury Miami with 500 yards or a huge first half. They won the moments that decided the game.

Patrick Mahomes completed 20 of 24 passes for 246 yards and two touchdowns. Kenneth Walker III scored on the ground and through the air, Nohl Williams broke up a fourth-down pass with Miami still within one score and Travis Kelce finished the job with an 11-yard touchdown late in the fourth quarter.

PFM moved Kansas City from 89.3 to 90.6, enough to pass Seattle for the top spot. The Chiefs were out-possessed and finished with only five more total yards than Miami, so this was not a statistical blowout. It was another example of Mahomes and Andy Reid finding enough answers to finish a game without giving an opponent the extra mistake it needs.

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4. New England’s Depth Problems Showed Up All at Once

Biggest faller · -2.2 · No. 8 to No. 12

New England’s 20-3 win over Pittsburgh looked like a step forward. A week later in Jacksonville, the Patriots gave almost all of it back.

The yardage was nearly even, 317-315 in New England’s favor, but the game was not. Drake Maye threw two interceptions, the Patriots turned the ball over three times and Jacksonville scored 35 points. Travis Hunter’s end-zone interception kept New England from finishing one of its best first-half chances, and the Jaguars scored two third-quarter touchdowns in 18 seconds to break the game open.

PFM dropped the Patriots from 84.1 to 81.9 and from No. 8 to No. 12. Injuries are part of the context: New England played without A.J. Brown, Mike Onwenu, Dre’Mont Jones, Craig Woodson and Eli Raridon. But a roster carrying that many absences cannot also give away three possessions and expect to look like a top-10 team.

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5. Green Bay Got Pushed Around at Home

Faller · -2.0 · No. 11 to No. 17

Green Bay’s loss was not subtle. Atlanta went into Lambeau Field and pushed the Packers around for most of the night.

The Falcons ran for 242 yards while Green Bay finished with 17. Bijan Robinson had 194 rushing yards and two touchdowns, Drake London added 194 receiving yards and Atlanta held the ball for more than 37 minutes. Jordan Love threw 53 passes because the Packers could not stay balanced, and four first-half possessions ended in three-and-outs.

PFM moved Green Bay from 81.8 to 79.8 and from No. 11 to No. 17, the biggest rank drop among this week’s six movers. Love still threw for 312 yards, and Christian Watson and Matthew Golden both made plays downfield. The bigger concern is what happens when the run game disappears and the defense cannot get the ball back quickly enough to keep the offense out of chase mode.

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6. Houston Had a Plus-Three Turnover Margin and Still Lost

Faller · -1.5 · No. 13 to No. 15

Houston got the kind of turnover advantage that usually saves an ugly offensive day. It still was not enough.

The Texans finished plus-three in turnovers against Indianapolis and never gave the ball away, yet they managed only 223 total yards. C.J. Stroud threw for 167 yards, and Houston needed a late Woody Marks touchdown to take a 17-16 lead before Spencer Shrader’s 53-yard field goal won it for the Colts with seconds left.

PFM moved Houston from 81.3 to 79.8 and from No. 13 to No. 15. The defense is keeping games within reach, but the offense just struggled against an Indianapolis group that had allowed 1,209 yards over the first two weeks. An 0-3 team cannot keep asking the defense to manufacture all of its margin.

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1. Carolina Needed a Defensive Answer. It Got One.

Biggest riser · +2.12 · No. 30 to No. 29

Carolina’s offense was not the biggest problem after Week 1. The Panthers had scored 37 points, but giving up a franchise-record 59 to Chicago made it impossible to trust the other side of the ball. One week later, the response could not have looked much different.

Bryce Young threw for 287 yards and three touchdowns in Atlanta, while Carolina forced five turnovers and allowed only three points. Devin Lloyd intercepted two passes and returned one for a touchdown, Tetairoa McMillan topped 100 receiving yards and Darren Waller caught two scores. The Panthers did not need one side of the ball to cover for the other.

Carolina is still No. 29, so one dominant afternoon did not erase the concerns that put this roster near the bottom of the preseason board. It did answer the most urgent question coming out of the opener: the defense can give Young a chance to play a normal game.

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2. Tyler Shough Is Giving New Orleans a Different Ceiling

Riser · +1.84 · No. 29 to No. 24

Shough showed plenty in the opener, but New Orleans still lost a 31-30 game in which the rookie quarterback turned the ball over three times. Week 2 was the cleaner version PFM needed to see.

Shough completed 27 of 34 passes for 252 yards, threw a touchdown to Chris Olave and scored the go-ahead touchdown himself with 1:28 left in Baltimore. The Saints also held the Ravens to three second-half points before Julian Blackmon intercepted Lamar Jackson on the final drive.

Our week 3 update specifically credits Shough’s firmer hold on the starting job and an improving young core, while limited 2026 cap room still weighs on Franchise Direction. New Orleans is not suddenly being treated like a complete contender, but a five-spot jump says the quarterback question looks very different than it did two weeks ago.

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3. Las Vegas Backed Up Week 1 With a Better Win

Riser · +1.04 · No. 28 to No. 25

The Raiders’ first win showed that Klint Kubiak could get functional offense from a young roster. The second one carried more weight because it came on the road against a Chargers team PFM had ranked No. 12 entering Week 2.

Kirk Cousins threw for 253 yards and three touchdowns. Tre Tucker turned five catches into 119 yards and a score, Cody White caught two touchdowns and the defense intercepted Justin Herbert twice before forcing a late Omarion Hampton fumble. Las Vegas moved to 2-0 without needing a perfect game from Cousins.

Las Vegas is still No. 25 because PFM is not throwing out the questions about roster depth, quarterback age or a difficult AFC West. Two straight wins do change the evidence, though. The offense has looked organized for two weeks, and the Raiders just beat a team that entered the game much higher on the board.

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4. Jayden Daniels’ Elbow Injury Changes Washington Immediately

Biggest faller · -2.07 · No. 19 to No. 21

Washington’s drop is bigger than a 17-point loss in Dallas. Jayden Daniels dislocated his left elbow on the final play of the first half, and the Commanders now have to prepare around Marcus Mariota while Daniels’ availability is uncertain.

The week 3 update shows exactly how much Jayden Daniels means to the team. QB Stability fell from 84.7 to 77.6, a 7.17-point drop, and Recent Performance also declined. Offense Strength actually improved from 82.0 to 82.5, but that was not enough to offset the quarterback change and a game in which Dak Prescott threw four touchdowns and CeeDee Lamb had 153 receiving yards.

That is why Washington fell only two places even with the week’s largest Team Score decline. There are still pieces PFM likes on offense, but the quarterback carrying that offense is now the biggest short-term variable on the team.

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5. The Chargers Have Scored 14 Points Twice. PFM Cannot Ignore It.

Faller · -1.98 · No. 12 to No. 16

The Chargers could write off Week 1 as a bad opener. Week 2 made that harder. Los Angeles scored 14 points for the second straight game and fell to 0-2 after losing at home to a Raiders team that entered the week 16 spots lower in the PFM rankings.

Justin Herbert finished with 192 passing yards, one touchdown and two interceptions. Omarion Hampton ran for 94 yards, but his late fumble near midfield helped Las Vegas put the game away. The offense has now had two chances to show the rhythm PFM expected around Herbert and Mike McDaniel, and it has not done it yet.

Herbert and Jim Harbaugh are why this is a fall to No. 16 rather than a full collapse. PFM still has reasons to trust the quarterback and coaching baseline. The Chargers now need the offense to stop making every drive feel harder than it should.

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6. Chicago Went From 59 Points to 3, Then Lost Caleb Williams

Faller · -1.95 · No. 9 to No. 12

Chicago opened the season by scoring a franchise-record 59 points. Seven days later, the Bears managed three against Minnesota even though they outgained the Vikings 297-246.

Caleb Williams threw for 138 yards and added 42 on the ground before a non-contact right hamstring injury ended his afternoon. The PFM update dropped QB Stability from 84.2 to 80.0 and Recent Performance from 80.4 to 79.3. The defense actually improved from 80.0 to 80.6 after holding Minnesota without a touchdown.

That split is important. Chicago did not suddenly lose everything PFM liked after Week 1, and the Bears remain No. 12. The concern is whether Ben Johnson can keep the offense near its early ceiling if Williams misses time, because the difference between 59 points and three showed how wide the range can be.

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