Can the Commanders do the Unthinkable?

Before the season started the Washington Commanders were considered a longshot to win the Super Bowl. In fact, according to Vegas they were +15000 with only the Giants, Patriots and Panthers with worse odds then them. Yet here we are with the Commanders just one win away from competing for a championship.

How did they get here? Well credit the new ownership for clearing house and adding one of the best young GM’s in Adam Peters. It also doesn’t hurt to have the greatest rookie QB we have ever seen in Jayden Daniels. Sprinkle in a little bit of luck (Chicago Hail Mary) and you have a team of destiny.

Going into Philly and coming out with a win won’t be easy but after looking at what this team did in Detroit nothing is out of reach. Washington will need to stack the line and do whatever possible to stop Saquon Barkley. Easier said than done.

Can the Bills Finally Make it Back to the Super Bowl?

This year’s Bills team seems to have something special. As we’ve said before they are the most complete team in these playoffs and they showed that again with the win against the Ravens. Josh Allen and the Bills offense was not spectacular but they played turnover free football which is critical this time of year.

One of the things that has impressed me the most with Josh Allen this year is his ball protection. Allen had only 6 interceptions this season compared to 18 last year. This maturity from him has elevated an offense that many expected would take a step back after losing Stefon Diggs. The Bills will once again need to play mistake free football to win at Kansas City.

Can the Chiefs Offense Hang With the Bills?

There’s no question that the Chiefs success this year has been mostly because of how good their defense has been playing. Don’t get me wrong Patrick Mahomes has still been up to his old tricks but this offense is nothing like years past. If you ask Kansas City they could care less but with Buffalo coming to town they need to reach another gear.

Back in November, the Bills shutdown Mahomes and the Chiefs in route to a 30-21 victory. Mahomes struggled in that game with 2 interceptions and under 200 yards passing. Another performance like this and the Chiefs could be sent packing. Kansas City will need a balanced offensive gameplan and need to control the clock to keep the Bills offense off the field. This should be another classic in this heated series.

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At first, you may think are you crazy? Bench Jalen Hurts in the biggest game of the season. Well let’s peel back the onion a little bit. Hurts went down with some sort of knee injury last week after getting tackled awkwardly. He ended up finishing the game but didn’t look 100%. The Eagles don’t need Hurts to be 100% to win with Barkley as your secret weapon in the backfield. They have been winning with a formula of not making mistakes and running Barkley with the hopes he breaks one or two for a touchdown. This formula has worked the last several weeks, but in the biggest game of the season, I’m not sure!

If you watched the game between the Eagles and Commanders about a month ago, Pickett stepped in and did a really good job. The balanced offense of passing and running with Barkley worked well, well enough to score 33 points. In that game, he fed DeVonta Smith, he fed Brown and other key people. The Commanders had a hard time stopping their offense. Good offenses have a balanced attack to keep the defense off balance. With Hurts hurt and the passing game struggling with him at QB, should the Eagles start Kenny Pickett? Something to think about, because in this game your just trying to win and survive! There’s no style points for passing over 300 yards and having 200 yards rushing.

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Texans at Chiefs: Do the Texans have a chance in this game? Of course they do, with that lethal pass rush and Joe Mixon at running back. The problem is who there playing on the other side of the ball. The Chiefs know how to win in all the big games, and this game is no different. The Texans have injuries on both sides of the ball, while the Chiefs are well rested and healthy. Look for the Chiefs defense to cause havoc on C.J. Stroud. They always seem to come alive in the playoffs. I like the Chiefs in this one. Chiefs 27 Texans 17.

Commanders at Lions: Jayden Daniels has been something special this year for the Washington Commanders. The impact he has had on this team is unbelievable. He has poise, talent and all the other intangibles your looking for in a starting quarterback. Why can’t he lead this team to a huge upset victory against the Lions? Well, he can but the Commanders have to do a few things to accomplish this. First, they have to control the time of possession. Keep that lethal Lions offense off the field. So how do you do that? Well you run the ball with all your runners to include Brian Robinson, Austin Ekeler and of course Daniels. Also you can throw a bunch of short passes and just methodically move the ball down the field.

The Commanders ability to extend drives by going for it on fourth down is a huge factor in this game. Once they extend these drives, they must capitalize and score touchdowns and not field goals. On the defensive side of the ball, they need to get at least one takeaway. Last week, they got that on Baker’s fumble to the receiver. That must happen and when it does capitalize on that. They need a flawless game with the Lions not playing their best. With all of that said, I like the Commanders with the ball on the last drive, driving down the field and scoring the game winning field goal. This is all they know the past six games. Washington 34 Lions 31

Rams at Eagles: The Rams experienced what no team should ever have to go through. The wild fires rolled through last week causing extreme devastation. I can see the Rams rallying around the victims and playing for them this week. In addition, the Rams have been playing very well. They got healthy and appear to be clicking on all cylinders. As good as the offense has been, it’s their defense that has stepped up the past several weeks. That right there is why I’m picking them this week. Look, the pressure is on the Eagles this week. There at home, there expected to make it to the Super Bowl with all the talent they have. Jalen Hurts hasn’t been lighting it up the past few games which might be OK considering they have great receivers and a top running back. This game will also be close with the Rams prevailing. Rams 30 Eagles 27.

Ravens at Bills: This is my favorite matchup of the weekend as the Ravens travel to Buffalo. This matchup is very intriguing as both teams and quarterbacks desperately want to get over the hump and get one step closer to the Super Bowl. In the first matchup, the Bills didn’t play well losing to the Ravens 35-10. This game will be different as the Bills will have a plan for both Henry and Lamar. These are public enemies 1 and 2. You can say the pressure is on both teams this week, which will add to the intrigue of this game. Buffalo’s plan on offense should be utilizing Cook as much as possible, and also utilizing Allen’s legs and the off schedule throws. I like an OT victory for the Bills on an opening possession touchdown. Bills 37 Ravens 31.

WILD CARD ROUND RECORD: 4-2

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Every single matchup has intrigue and should offer us another drama-filled weekend of football. Before the games start let’s go over 3 things we are looking forward to watching.

Can the Bills Stop the Ravens Dynamic Running Game?

Buffalo just might be the most complete team in the NFL right now. After the Broncos went up 7-0 on a beautiful bomb by Bo Nix, the Bills completely dominated the rest of the game. Josh Allen was once again near perfect and the balanced Bills offense controlled the clock. Allen had his wow moments including this 4th down touchdown to Ty Johnson.

A big key to this game will be the Buffalo run game. The Ravens defense is averaging a league low 3.6 YPC to running backs this season. If they can neutralize James Cook and make the Bills offense more one dimensional they have a good chance of winning. Again we’re talking about Josh Allen so easier said then done.

Speaking of running game, the Ravens once again ran all over their opponent last week. Baltimore stacked up 299 rushing yards against the Steelers defense to cruise to victory. In order for the Bills to advance they will need to shut down the Ravens run game and make Lamar Jackson one-dimensional. It should be fascinating to watch how this plays out.

Can the Rams Pull Off the Major Upset in Philly?

One of the most surprising results from Wild Card weekend was the Rams domination of the Vikings. This game was all LA from the start as they cruised to a 27-9 win on Monday night. The big story was the Rams young defense who sacked Sam Darnold 9 times and made his life miserable. This is the second consecutive bad game from Darnold and the potential free agent may have hurt is stock going into next year.

The Rams will need their defense to play at a high level again if they want to win in Philly. It’s a tough task for LA as they will be going cross-country in a raucous, cold-weather environment. Running back Kyren Williams will need to be used early and often as the Rams main focus should be to control the clock. If Saquon Barkley gets going it will be lights out on LA’s season.

Will the Commanders Continue Their Cinderella Run?

Jayden Daniels once more worked his late-game magic to lead the Commanders into the Divisional round. There are a ton of impressive stats to look at from Daniels’s historic rookie season but none more impressive than this. There have been 3 instances where a rookie QB has led his team to 0 punts and 0 turnovers and Daniels has all three. It’s unheard of for a rookie quarterback to have this much poise.

If the Commanders hope to continue this run they will need to go to Detroit and upset the high powered Lions. Detroit is a juggernaut on offense leading the league with 33.2 PTS/G. Their defense has its holes, so the Commanders will need to score on almost every possession. Also, don’t expect to see much punting in this game. These two teams love to go for it on 4th down as referenced in the chart below.

This type of aggressiveness can of course backfire but I love to see it. Control the ball as much as possible and the Commanders have a chance.

Detroit is getting healthy at the right time with running back David Montgomery set to make his return. The Washington defense has struggled to stop the run all season and they will need find ways to stop Montgomery and the electric Jahmyr Gibbs. As of now the O/U on this game is 55.5 so expect a high scoring shootout.

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Chargers at Texans: Pretty amazing Harbaugh has taken the Chargers to the playoffs in his first year! He has this team believing and has a good team to make a run. The issue with the Chargers is the ability to put up big numbers. They play a little like Michigan when Harbaugh coached them. That style of football will be good enough to win against the Texans, but as they move along it might become more difficult. The lack of weapons on the offensive side of the ball might be their nemesis. Even though the Texans are at home I think they lose by at least 3. Chargers 24 Texans 20.

Steelers at Ravens: Here we go again, the Steelers vs the Ravens. Two teams that hate each other and know each other very well. In my eyes, these two teams are heading in two different directions. The Ravens with Derek Henry are playing at a very high level while the Steelers have lost four straight and are limping into the playoffs. Has Russell Wilson lost his magic? There has been talks this week that they play Justin Fields too to keep the defense on their heels. They need to do something and pull out the tricks, because the Ravens will be very tough to beat at home. I like the Ravens by 10. Ravens 31 Steelers 21.

Broncos at Bills: Is anyone giving the Broncos a chance? They have a chance but it will be very very tough for so many reasons. One, a rookie QB playing an away game. Two, the Bills are more hungry than ever as they have been so close so many times. Three, Josh Allen has a solid RB to take the pressure off him in these big games. Denver has a solid team with a proven coach in Sean Payton, but they got a tough draw playing the Bills, first round in Buffalo. In order to win this game, they need to get Josh Allen to turn the ball over and create a short field. Once they get the short field, they need to score touchdowns, not field goals. If possible, get the lead where Buffalo is playing from behind and pressing. That will be tough, but very possible. In the playoffs anything can happen, and we see that year in and year out. With all that said, I like the Bills in a lower scoring game. Bills 27 Broncos 20.

Packers at Eagles: Did the Eagles get who they wanted to play? I’m not sure about that. Did they want another crack at the Commanders or a Packers team who has a great running back, good QB and a solid coach. This game is all determined on the quarterback position. If Jalen Hurts plays, I think the Eagles take this game. The Eagles are too talented on both sides of the ball to say they won’t win this game. The Packers are all contingent upon Josh Jacobs and his ability to run successfully. The loss of Christian Watson is big, but they still have Jayden Reed along with other key players like Tucker Kraft. The Packers have to establish the run and get Eagles to make mistakes. It looks like as of now Jalen will play which is why I will pick the Eagles in a shootout. Eagles 37 Packers 33.

Commanders at Bucs: Is Jayden Daniels fun to watch or what? He has led this team to so many close victories this year, you forget he’s only a rookie. A few reason for concern if your a Commanders fan. The defense has struggled this year with both the run and pass. Tampa’s strength is their offense where they have Bucky Irving as well as top notch receivers. Baker has put up over 4000 yards this year without Chris Godwin. On the offensive side of the ball, Jayden has struggled at time against the blitz. The blitz is something Tampa loves to do with mixing up different looks. So this game will be a challenge for them. For Tampa, can they handle the elusiveness of Jayden Daniels? You can have a plan for him but easier said than done. He’s too fast for defensive lineman and corners and safeties are too busy in coverage. Before you know it, he just ran for ten yards before you make contact with him. We will see a different game than Game 1 when these two teams played each other. Jayden has got way better, more mature and he understands defenses better. The Commanders know what they have to do to slow the Tampa offense down, it’s just a matter of if they can execute. If the Commanders can get over 100 yards rushing between their RB’s and Jayden, they should win this game. I can definitely see this game going down to the last play. I like the Commanders away. Commanders 30 Tampa 27.

Vikings at Rams: Prayers for all the families of the wildfires in California! What happened to the Vikings against the Lions? Did the real Sam Darnold stand up? I don’t think so. I think they ran into a buzzsaw at Detroit, against a fired up Lions team. You will see a different team this week with Darnold playing a lot better. The Rams have a lot of weapons on both sides, but I think the Vikings winning 14 games this week is no fluke. When they get Aaron Jones going with TJ Hockenson catching balls and of course Justin Jefferson, there hard to beat. On the defensive side of the ball, this unit is led by Defensive Coordinator, Brian Flores. What Flores has down with this team is pretty remarkable. This is where they will win this game. Their ability to get pressure on Stafford, get sacks, and a few turnovers is the reason they win this game. I’ll take the Vikings away. Vikings 34 Rams 31.

LAST WEEKS RECORD: 10-6

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