Cleveland Browns @ Houston Texans +2.5 (Saturday 4:30 PM EST on NBC)

Our first matchup of the weekend features two teams that many of us didn’t think would be here. The Browns have shuffled through 5 starting quarterbacks this season yet managed to finish an impressive 11-6. That is in large part due to their dominating defense which finished #1 in total team defense allowing just 270.2 yards per game.

The Texans meanwhile are playing with house money and are led by their star rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud. Stroud continues his strong rookie campaign where threw for 4000+ yards, 23 touchdowns and just 5 interceptions. The lack of turnovers was the most glaring stat as Stroud plays with the poise of a seasoned vet.

This game will come down to the wire and will be low-scoring. Expect Stroud to do just enough to pull off the upset at home and continue the Texans surprising season.

Game Pick: Texans 21 – Browns 14

Miami Dolphins @ Kansas City Chiefs -4.5 (Saturday 8:00 PM EST on Peacock)

Next up on Saturday night, we have a banged-up Dolphins team taking on the Chiefs in chilly Arrowhead. The weather will absolutely play a part in this matchup as temperatures as expected to be in the single digits come kickoff. Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs are somewhat flying under the radar but you can’t count out Andy Reid and Mahomes in the playoffs.

Miami has been struggling lately as they come in losers of 2 straight. The Dolphins offense has come back down to earth a bit and is hoping star receiver Jaylen Waddle can return as he has been missed.

It’s hard to see the Dolphins coming out victorious in this one. Miami hasn’t been a good cold-weather team as Tua Tagovailoa has struggled in these types of games. Mahomes and the Chiefs move on setting up an intriguing Divisional round matchup.

Game Pick: Chiefs 24- Dolphins 16

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Buffalo Bills -10 (Sunday 1:00 PM EST on CBS/Paramount+)

Our first Sunday game features the red-hot Bills vs. the Steelers. The Bills wrapped up the AFC East title last week in Miami and are starting to look dangerous. This will also be a cold weather game with temperatures expected to be in the low 20s.

Pittsburgh is a heavy underdog in this matchup and rightfully so. They will be without their defensive star T.J. Watt who went down last week with a knee injury. Quarterback Mason Rudolph is set to start and he will have his hands full with this Buffalo defense.

This is a tough matchup for Mike Tomlin and the Steelers. They certainly weren’t expected to be here but just don’t have enough firepower to hang with the Bills. Look for a late backdoor cover for the Steelers in this one.

Game Pick: Bills 27 – Steelers 20

Green Bay Packers @ Dallas Cowboys -7.5 (Sunday 4:30 PM EST on FOX)

The first NFC matchup of the weekend will be in Dallas where the NFC East champions take on the surprising Packers. Dallas has been dominant at home where they posted a perfect 8-0 record. Most of those games haven’t been close with the exception of the Lions game that featured the controversial 2-point conversion.

Jordan Love and the Packers will be playing with nothing to lose as they were expected to have a down year in Love’s first year under center. It has been anything but that and Love has shown he can be the quarterback of the future in Green Bay.

The playoff atmosphere is different and with the lights on I think the Cowboys come out flat. They will eventually find their groove but expect the Packers to hang around until the end.

Game Pick: Cowboys 31 – Packers 24

Los Angeles Rams @ Detroit Lions -3 (Sunday 8:00 PM EST on NBC)

In the Sunday nightcap, we have the Matthew Stafford Bowl in Detroit. To me, this is the best game of the weekend with so many storylines to explore. Along with Stafford coming back to Detroit you also have Jared Goff looking for revenge against the team that gave up on him.

You have to be impressed with what Dan Campbell did for the Lions this season. Not only did they capture their first-ever NFC North title but they have turned this once lowly franchise into one of the best teams in the league. The Lions also feature one of the most coveted head coaching candidates in Ben Johnson. Johnson is the next great offensive mind and it looks like this is the year he becomes a head coach.

The Rams come into Detroit with confidence as they are winners of 4 straight. They are led by impressive rookie Puka Nacua and Kyren Williams who both look to be late-round steals. While I do think the Rams will hang around for most of the game Detroit will be too much at home in this one.

Game Pick: Lions 28 – Rams 21

Philadelphia Eagles @ Tampa Bay Bucs +3 (Monday 8:15 PM EST on ABC/ESPN)

Finally, we end Wild Card weekend with a Monday night showdown in Tampa Bay. The Eagles, who were once favorites to win the NFC come in losing 5 of their last 6 games. They have key injuries on both sides of the ball but their defense has let this team down all year.

The Bucs are another one of the surprising teams to make the playoffs. It was supposed to be a rebuilding year in Tampa but they were able to sneak into the playoffs thanks to the lowly NFC South. They now get a home playoff game and will look to avenge a week 3 loss against the Eagles.

This game comes down to who is the healthier team and right now that’s Tampa Bay. A.J. Brown has a knee injury and is not practicing while quarterback Jalen Hurts has a sprained middle finger on his throwing hand. Philadelphia is reeling and this game will put an end to a season that had so much promise.

Game Pick: Bucs 24 – Eagles 14

The post Wild Card Weekend Picks appeared first on Pro Football Mania.

The Good

Usually in this section, I focus on a handful of players that I like to highlight. For the Eagles, I want to focus on their front office, particularly Howie Roseman. Roseman is now one of the best GMs in the NFL and has masterfully built this Eagles roster. One of the things I like about Roseman is he is not afraid to take chances. For instance last year’s trade for wide receiver A.J. Brown. Roseman knew Hurts needed another receiver alongside DeVonta Smith and he pulled the trigger. It paid off in a big way as Brown finished the season with 1,496 receiving yards and 11 touchdowns. These types of moves are why the Eagles are the top dogs in the NFC.

On the field, it’s hard not to be in awe of how quickly Jalen Hurts has developed. The big-bodied Hurts has always had a knack for running the ball but he has greatly improved as a passer. There was a point last season where Hurts was the front-runner to win the MVP before he got hurt. This season I expect more of the same from Hurts and this Eagles offense.

The Bad

In my mind, this Eagles squad doesn’t have a glaring weakness but there are some areas of concern. One of those areas is the running back position. Miles Sanders had his best season in Philadelphia in 2022 but the Eagles decided to let him walk. To fill his place they traded for D’Andre Swift and brought in Rashaad Penny. Both of those backs have shown glimpses but have battled injury issues over the past couple of seasons. I wouldn’t be surprised if Kenneth Gainwell takes over the lead-back position at some point.

The Prediction

The Eagles will once again be a threat in the NFC although there will be some bumps in the road. I have them losing 3 more games than last season but still winning the division. I believe losing both of their offensive and defensive coordinators will have an impact in 2023.

2023 Record: (11-6 1st in the Division)

The post Philadelphia Eagles Record Prediction for 2023 appeared first on Pro Football Mania.

When DeAndre Hopkins was released by the Arizona Cardinals in May, many believed he would sign on with a contender. While the Titans may not be in contention for a Super Bowl, bringing in Hopkins will certainly help their chances. The Titans have built their team around Derrick Henry and a defense that brings Head Coach Mike Vrabel’s intensity.

Offensive Woes

Trading A.J. Brown to the Philadelphia Eagles last season left a giant hole on the Titans offense that they couldn’t recover from. In fact, the Titans finished the 2022 campaign with one of the worst offenses in the league. They lacked a true balance and defenses were able to stack up in the box to stop the run. Now with the addition of Hopkins, the Titans should become a more balanced offensive unit.

DeAndre Hopkins the Leader

There is also a leadership role that Hopkins will get to take on. The Titans drafted Treylon Burks in the 2022 NFL Draft with hopes that he could be their #1 going forward. It didn’t go as planned as Burks struggled in his first season in Tennessee. He will now get the chance to learn from one of the best and in turn, should get more open looks. Taking the pressure off of Burks will help his development in this system.

The only question now for the Titans offense is at the quarterback position. Can Ryan Tannehill bounce back next year? If not expect it to be Will Levis time in Tennessee.

The post DeAndre Hopkins and the Tennessee Titans are a Perfect Match appeared first on Pro Football Mania.

Before we look at next season, let’s take a look at the NFL target leaders from 2022. In the table below are the top 5 leaders in targets from last year. The first four finished in the same exact order in terms of total fantasy points amongst wide receivers (Half PPR). The only anomaly was A.J. Brown who jumped CeeDee Lamb and finished 5th in total fantasy points. Brown finished with 2 more touchdowns and 137 more yards.

2022 NFL Target Leaders

Predicting the Target Leaders for 2023-2024

Looking ahead to next season we can almost guarantee the top 5 target leaders will look different. For instance, in 2021 Cooper Kupp was the NFL target leader by a large margin +22. As we know Kupp suffered a serious ankle injury that cut his 2022 season short. Injuries aren’t the only factor to consider. Quarterback changes, coaching changes, free agency and the NFL Draft are all factors. Let’s now look at who I predict will be the NFL target leaders for next season.

2023 NFL Target Leaders (Projected)

Justin Jefferson will once again be the king of targets. I slotted his targets down but only slightly. This is due to the Minnesota Vikings adding Jordan Addison in the draft. It will take some time to get Addison up to speed but once he’s ready he should be productive in this offense. Also, keep in mind that Adam Thielen is no longer with the team.

Stefon Diggs will make the jump from #4 to #2 overall in targets. I am predicting 14 more targets for Diggs as he and Josh Allen continue to develop their chemistry. If somehow the Buffalo Bills end up grabbing DeAndre Hopkins I may re-adjust Diggs’ total targets.

Tyreek Hill‘s targets will drop but not by much. He will once again be the focal point in the Miami Dolphins offense. One major thing to keep an eye on is the health of Tua Tagovailoa. Can he stay healthy the entire season?

Next up it’s our first newcomer on the list. Garrett Wilson finished just outside the top 5 last year in total targets. Now with the addition of Aaron Rodgers, I expect his numbers to climb. I am not worried about Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb taking targets away. Wilson is the Jets #1 WR and they will continue to lean on him.

Last on the list is the always reliable Travis Kelce. Kelce finished 6th last season in total targets with 152. I expect him to hover around this range again in 2023-2024. The Chiefs no longer have JuJu Smith-Schuster and still lack a true #1 receiver. All that means is more target share for the great tight end.

The post Predicting the NFL Target Leaders for Next Season appeared first on Pro Football Mania.

PRESEASON EXPECTATIONS

Philadelphia needed a WR 1 in order to take a leap with Jalen Hurts. A.J. Brown was a WR 1 in Tennessee, which ran a run-heavy offense with Derrick Henry. In the offseason, a shocking trade changed the landscape of the NFL. The Eagles were able to acquire AJ Brown to fortify their offense and give Jalen Hurts another weapon. People were excited to see how the Eagles would grow with a legitimate top wide receiver.

DRAFT EXPECTATIONS

Coming into the draft, AJ Brown was slotted with an ADP of 40. This ADP gave him the 10th WR on average to be taken. Looking at the WRs ahead of him, this seemed like a good spot for him as the elite WRs and consistent WRs were slotted above him. The WRs after him were more of the solid WR 2 of their teams. AJ Brown was generally drafted from the 3rd-4th round.

OVERALL SEASON PRODUCTION

AJ Brown proved to be more than a spark for the Philadelphia Eagles. His presence gave the Eagles life as they were the top team in the NFC finishing first in the conference. In fantasy, AJ Brown finished as the 6th best receiver and 19th overall player in fantasy football. His trade may end up being the best trade of the season.

In terms of snap percentage, AJ Brown was active in at least 74% of the snaps for the entire year and missed no games. Eight of his games ended up with him as a top-15 WR in the week. He ended the season with 1496 yards and 11 TDs. Both were career-highs in his young career.

CRITICAL MOMENTS DURING THE SEASON

Week 1 vs Detroit Lions

AJ Brown’s story in Philadelphia started out with a BANG. In his first game as an Eagle, they faced the Detroit Lions on the road. Jalen Hurts found him early and often. AJ Brown caught 10 passes for 155 yards. This would be a sign for the future as Hurts looked very comfortable passing it to his new WR 1. He had 25.50 FP in his Eagles debut.

Week 8 vs Pittsburgh Steelers

Coming off a bye week, the Steelers were the next opponent for the Philadelphia Eagles. They entered the game undefeated at 6-0. The Pittsburgh defense was no match for Brown. AJ caught six passes for 156 yards and three TDs. He caught a 39-yard TD in the 1st quarter and a 27-yard and 29-yard TD in the second quarter. He made his mark in the game after just one half. AJ scored 39.60 FP this game and was the WR 1.

Week 13 vs Tenessee Titans

This matchup was circled on AJ Brown’s schedule ever since the schedule came out. A lot of headlines focused on AJ and his meeting with the Titans. He made them regret their decision of trading him. AJ came in hot with eight catches and 119 yards and two TDs in the Week 13 matchup. He outscored the Tennessee Titans as the Eagles won 35-10. Brown scored 31.90 FP and was the WR 3 for that week.

The post 2022-2023 Fantasy Football Review: AJ Brown appeared first on Pro Football Mania.

By: Zach Kurt

Who is the best wide receiver in dynasty? I bet when I ask this question quite a few names pop into your head. Profiles like A.J. Brown, Tyreek Hill, Calvin Ridley, and many more are in the running but who is the top dog? I was very curious about who the Fantasy community thought was the dynasty WR1. I didn’t just poll their number one WR, I polled their top five dynasty WRs and 90% of them had A.J. Brown, Justin Jefferson, Tyreek Hill, and Davante Adams. Other WRs included in the top 5 were: Calvin Ridley, DeAndre Hopkins, D.K. Metcalf, Ceedee Lamb, Stefon Diggs, Ja’Marr Chase, Terry McLaurin, Michael Thomas.

However, I am going to eliminate the list that I just shared. Not because they aren’t able to be the dynasty WR1 but the community seems to have narrowed it down to these 4 WRs. Each of these WRs were Hill, Adams, AJB, and Jefferson, who all received 20% of the top vote in the poll. It is fair to say that each one of these WRs has the talent, opportunity, and situations to be THE WR1 but there is only one. So who will it be? Let’s break down each player in terms of production, age, injury history, and future outlook.

First on the podium, is Tyreek hill. Hill is in the best offense and will be until he retires. He is 27 years old and is truly a beast at the position, as he has elite yards per catch, and has found the endzone 35 times the last 3 years. Plus he has a small rushing upside that none of these other guys have. Tyreek has a brief injury history and also has had some trouble with the law. Patrick Mahomes is throwing him the ball and that immediately puts him at the top of my list because he has the best QB of the group for the foreseeable future.

Next, Adams is a target machine and a red zone monster. If he was 25 I don’t think that there is any question about who the WR1 is. However, he is 28 and has an injury history and that is something that is taken into consideration when making this decision. Last season he had 149 targets in 14 games. Did I mention he is a red zone monster? 18 Tds in 14 games, that’s more than a TD a game. According to Draftsharks.com Adams has a 94% of an injury in 2021. The older he gets the more likely to increase that rate and at 94% that’s tough to rely on. When Adams is on the field he is the best fantasy WR in football. There is a chance that he and Rodgers don’t play together next year and that could have serious implications on his fantasy value.

Next is AJB stud WR who has a higher YPC than Tyreek. He is 24 years old and a solid red-zone option and has a great QB but not an elite one. Entering his third year his ceiling is very high. However, his targets don’t come very close to Hill and Adams. Brown has averaged less than 100 targets in his first two years. With Julio coming into the team it took the opportunity he had to be the Clear #1 on this team away. Tennessee also doesn’t throw the ball a lot and that makes AJB’s target share high but his volume of targets is low when comparing him to the other guys. He has had a few minor knee injuries over his career but nothing that has set him back more than a few weeks.

Finally, we have Justin Jefferson a breakout guy in year one 125 targets 1400 yards but only 7 TDs. JJeff is 22 years old and super safe because of his yardage floor. He is going to get the targets and do great things with them as we saw last year. A stipulation with Jefferson is that he has only done it one year, and could face regression. His TD’s seem to be a cause for concern only getting 7. Adam Theilen is a red zone monster but will slowly fade in the next few years. JJeff is the #1 target on his team and has room to grow! Can JJeff be better than he was last year? Absolutely he can, but the unknown is rough with him. Now as we look back at all 4 receivers all of them have some concerns and they all have incredible upside.

Have you figured out who the Dynasty WR1 should be? Drumroll, please! It’s not Adams, It’s not AJB”¦”¦. It’s Justin Jefferson, with Tyreek a close second. Justin Jefferson in his rookie year with no training camp or preseason was a top 6 WR and he has room to grow and improve. He will be a top 5 WR in the NFL for the next 8-10 years. Tyreek and Adams will probably be better than JJeff over the next 2-3 years. However, JJeff will be right behind him, his competition for targets is slowing down and most WR’s show better results in year 2. Jefferson has longevity, he is elite, and has the best floor without an injury history.

Thank you for sticking with me to figure out who the Dynasty Wr1 Should be. While I still love all the WRs mentioned in the article and all of them have the potential to be the top dog, Jefferson is the clear answer for me. I hope this research helped inform your decision as well. As I always say, send trade offers because Dynasty Never Rests!

The post Who is the WR1 in dynasty? appeared first on Pro Football Mania.

By: Chris Thomas

Not too long ago the Tennessee Titans came within eleven points from completing their Cinderella story, defeating the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC Championship, and making the Super Bowl. Instead, the Chiefs went on to defeat the San Fransisco 49ers in Super Bowl LIV and representing the AFC in the Super Bowl this past season. At this point, Kansas City appears to be the odds on favorite to win the AFC and appear in the Super Bowl for the third year in a row. However, the Tennessee Titans may have the best chance of making sure that doesn’t happen. Here is why the Chiefs should be considered with the Titans more than any other team in the AFC. 

Outstanding weapons 

It wouldn’t be shocking if Tennessee finished the season as the league’s number one offense. It would be extremely shocking if they finished outside the top-10. The Titans not only have the back-to-back rushing champion in Derrick Henry but they also have two Pro Bowl-caliber receivers in A.J. Brown and Julio Jones. The Titans acquired Jones from the Atlanta Falcons after the draft for a 2022 second-round pick. He is not only a replacement for Corey Davis, who signed with the Jets in free agency, he is a major upgrade. If the Titans’ three offensive playmakers stay healthy they should be able to rack up 1,000+ yards rushing/receiving. 

It is fair to say that the Titans have passed the Chiefs as the team with the best offensive skill players. The Chiefs along with the Dallas Cowboys, Green Bay Packers, Minnesota Vikings, New Orleans Saints, and Tampa Bay Buccaneers have two offensive skill players on their roster that are capable of being named All-Pro at the end of the year. The Titans are not only the only other team in the AFC in that category but are the only team with three players capable of being named All-Pro at the end of the year. Kansas City hasn’t played a team with as much if not more firepower as them in the Patrick Mahomes era. That will change this season when the two meet in Week 7. The Chiefs’ defense features a few great players like Chris Jones, Tyrann Mathieu, and Frank Clark. However at best they are middle of the pack and do not have enough talent on that side of the ball to minimize the production of all three. 

Ability to control the clock

The Super Bowl this past year exposed the weaknesses that the Kansas City Chiefs had not exposed to the rest of the league the last few years. The way to beat the Chiefs is with a stout pass rush, not allowing Patrick Mahomes to make dynamic plays, and keeping the ball out of the offense’s hands. The Buccaneers’ pass rush did not allow Mahomes to make plays downfield and he had to resort to checking the ball behind the line of scrimmage or tossing it up hoping his receivers were in a position to make a play. While Tom Brady and the offense were able to hold the ball to control the clock more than the Chiefs during that game. Holding onto the ball and taking advantage of their offensive opportunities allowed them to dominate the Chiefs the way they did during that game. 

The Titans are well equipped to control the clock better than any other team in the league. They have the league’s most dominant running back over the last two seasons in Derrick Henry and a quarterback who is extremely smart with the ball in Ryan Tannehill. They have the firepower to get a lead early then hand the ball off to Henry over and over until the clock runs out. That has been the Titans’ bread and butter over the last two seasons. That firepower was just Henry last year and now it is their elite offensive trio that could get the Titans a lead early in games. Henry averaged a career-high 5.4 yards per carry last season. So if need be the Titans can rely on Henry to get them a first down in two or three downs, keep the clock rolling, and keep the ball out of the opponent’s hands. 

A lesser-discussed part of the Titans offense is how efficient Tannehill has been as a passer. Since taking over he is well aware that the passing game comes second behind their rushing attack. So he does not feel the pressure to make big plays that other quarterbacks do. Tannehill has only thrown 13 interceptions over the last two seasons because he doesn’t have to make the risky plays other quarterbacks do. Rather than making big plays downfield, Tannehill could throw short passes to move the chains and keep the clock moving. 

Similar Quarterback Production

The Titans quarterback Ryan Tannehill is more than a game manager. He has shown the ability to make big plays and big moments, especially in the playoffs. In late December, CBS compared the statistics of Tannehill’s first 24 games as the Titans starter and Patrick Mahomes’ statistics last 24 games. The results of this comparison are shocking enough and help the argument that Tannehill should be considered one of the better quarterbacks in the league. 

Tannehill’s 114 passer rating beats Mahomes 105.9 passer rating during that span. However, Mahomes’ 6,983 passing yards is higher than Tannehill’s 6,080 passing yards. Shockingly Tannehill beat out Mahomes in total touchdowns with 61 to Mahomes’ 56. They both only threw 10 interceptions during that span. Finally, Tannehill had a higher completion percentage completing 67.7% of his passes while Mahomes completed 66.4% of his passes. If this was a competition Tannehill beat out Mahomes with a final score of 3-1-1 out producing him in three categories.

Now it is unlikely that Tannehill will join Mahomes in the best in the league conversation unless he takes home the league MVP this season. But the stats do show that the two are closer than many think. If it came to a battle of the better quarterback it may end up being a toss-up between the two.

Revamped Defense

This offseason the Titans have focused on retooling their defense. Last year the Titans’ defense was not good enough to get the team back to the AFC Championship. So they got rid of multiple starters including Jadeveon Clowney, Kenny Vaccaro, Adoree Jackson, Desmond King II, and Malcolm Butler. They went out and added big-name free agents like Bud Dupree, Denico Autry, and Janoris Jenkins. Then Tennesee drafted three defensive players with their first four selections including first-round pick Caleb Farley, second-round pick Monty Rice, and third-round pick Elijah Molden. 

It appears that Tennessee swapped out their strength in the secondary to increase the talent level of their pass rush. Four members of the Titans starting secondary were cut during free agency but they signed two high caliber pass rushers to go along with the pass rushers they already had on their roster. Harold Landry has had 14.5 sacks for Tennesee over the last two years and former first-round pick Jeffrey Simmons is closing in on becoming one of the best defensive tackles in the league after his play the last two seasons. Now the Titans added Dupree who could very well have double-digit sacks and be named to the Pro Bowl this season and one of the most underrated pass rushers in the league the last couple of seasons Denico Autry. Dupree has had 19.5 sacks over his last 27 games. While Autry discretely had 20 sacks over the last three seasons in Indianapolis. The Titans should have no problem getting after opposing quarterbacks next season and beyond. 

The reason why Tennessee may have changed the emphasis of their defense from an outstanding coverage team to a dominant pass rush likely has to do with the Super Bowl. Todd Bowles’s defense in Tampa Bay relies more on the play of their front seven than back seven. Their defensive line, pass rushers, and linebackers are all Pro Bowl-caliber players while their secondary is made up of young early draft picks who are capable of playing good enough coverage but are not considered lockdown. A defense with that makeup was able to defeat Tennessee’s biggest rival in Kansas City in the Super Bowl. So Titans’ general manager Jon Robinson decided to remake their defense in Tampa Bay’s image to get past the team standing between them and the Super Bowl. 

The post Why the Tennessee Titans can upend the Kansas City Chiefs appeared first on Pro Football Mania.

By: Adam Hulse (@AdamHulseSports)

Through just two seasons in the NFL with the Tennessee Titans, AJ Brown has already made a big name for himself. He is a dominant force at the wide receiver position and has all of the tools to be absolutely elite. He is big and strong, measuring in at 6’1 and 226 pounds so he has the ability to overpower smaller coverage defenders while also possessing the speed and ball skills to be a deep threat as well. Now entering his third season out of Ole Miss, he is in an excellent position to take the next step forward. Here is why he can be a top 5 WR this year.

Increasing Production

In his first season in 2019, Brown was not only one of the best rookies in the NFL but one of the better wide receivers overall. He played in all 16 games while recording 52 receptions on 84 targets for 1051 yards and 8 touchdowns. One of the most impressive numbers was his massive 20.2 yards per reception including a career long catch of 91 yards. Additionally, he chipped in a big play in the rushing game with a 49 yard touchdown on the ground. He was consistently productive in a wide variety of routes and demonstrated that he was a home run threat any time the ball came his way.

Brown followed up his impressive rookie campaign with an an even better second season. He increased his total output for the season and actually did it in two fewer games than 2019. Across 14 games played he accumulated 70 receptions on 106 targets for 1075 yards and 11 touchdowns. If he had played the full 16 games his numbers obviously would have been even higher but either way he still improved from one year to the next. This upward trend strongly suggests that he could be in line for a monster 2021 season.

Offensive Scheme

The way that the Titans operate on offense is beneficial to the style of play for Brown. With Derrick Henry being so dominant in the rushing game, demonstrated by his 2000 yard season last year, the opposing defense has to respect the run and bring extra players around the line of scrimmage to help slow him down. When the safeties have to come forward and can’t drop deep into coverage all the time, it opens the door for Brown to get behind the defense and make those big plays. The rushing attack of Henry also opens up the play action passing game for Ryan Tannehill, where he is most comfortable and does his best work. This is where Brown has been able to do a large part of his damage.

The Julio Jones Effect

One of the biggest moves of the entire NFL offseason was the Titans acquiring Julio Jones from the Atlanta Falcons. Unfortunately, he was not able to stay healthy last year so his numbers were very down, but before that he was on an insane stretch of six straight seasons of at least 1394 receiving yards or more. He eclipsed 100 receptions in three of those seasons and had at least six receiving touchdowns in five of them. He has statistically been one of the best and most consistent wide receivers over the last decade.

On the surface, it may seem like Jones would steal some targets away from Brown but that is unlikely to be the case. The Titans lost both Corey Davis and Jonnu Smith to free agency so most of their target share will be replaced by Jones. The real benefit that Brown gets from the arrival of Jones is the dilemma that it puts opposing defenses in. They already have to respect the rushing game of Henry and now they will have their hands full trying to account for both Jones and Brown.

All things considered, adding the superstar Jones to the wide receiving core does not at all take away from the projections for Brown but actually make them even higher. The Titans offense is now a match up nightmare for opposing defenses and should provide plenty of opportunities for Brown to thrive. He will see more single coverage this year than previously and that’s a dangerous situation for his opponents. Brown looks ready to take a big leap forward this year and can be among the very best wide receivers in the entire NFL.

The post Why AJ Brown can be a Top 5 WR this year appeared first on Pro Football Mania.

By: Chris Thomas

The Tennesee Titans prioritize signing defensive playmakers like Bud Dupree and Denico Autry early in free agency. However, in the process of signing those players, they lost two of their top pass catchers from a season ago.

After a breakout season in 2020-21 former fifth overall pick, Corey Davis signed a 3 year $37.5 million deal with the New York Jets. Former Titans starting tight end Jonnu Smith also left the team for the New England Patriots. Smith signed a 4 year $50 million deal making him the richest tight end in NFL history.

When both Corey Davis and Jonnu Smith’s production from a season ago is accounted for the Titan’s offense has lost 106 receptions for 1,432 yards and 13 touchdowns in free agency. Removing that type of production will impact an offense the following season. It will also impact the fantasy values of the players on that offense.

Here is how the removal of Corey Davis and Jonnu Smith from the Titans offense impacts their fantasy-relevant offensive players.

Ryan Tannehill 

Last year was Ryan Tannehill’s first full season as the Titans starting quarterback. Despite a dip in production between weeks 7 and 10 where he only averaged 15.26 points per game against some tough opponents, Tannehill finished the year as the seventh-highest scoring fantasy quarterback. He averaged 21.9 points per game last year. 

Unless the Titans replace Corey Davis and Jonnu Smith with available free agent veterans or early in the draft, it is more than likely that Tannehill’s production will drop. Davis and Smith made up 37.6% of Tannehill’s completions, 43.5% of Tannehill’s passing yards, and 39.4% of his passing touchdowns in 2020-21. 

That production won’t be completely lost. Other pieces in Tennessee should take on a chunk of that production. But the less talented weapons that Tannehill will have this upcoming season won’t be able to replicate the production Davis and Smith have done in this offense the past few seasons. 

From a fantasy standpoint, Ryan Tannehill drops out of the weekly starting territory in standard ten team leagues. Instead, he becomes a bye-week replacement quarterback that is likely on the waiver wire for most of the season like Kirk Cousins, Derek Carr, or Matt Ryan. Tannehill should finish in-between the range of QB12-15.

Derrick Henry

Derrick Henry was one of the only first-round fantasy running backs that did not disappoint last season. Henry was taken in the middle of the first round in most standard leagues and finished the year with 331.1 PPR points which was third among running backs only behind Alvin Kamara and Dalvin Cook. Henry averaged 20.8 points per game and had four performances with over 35 PPR points per game.

Since Corey Davis and Jonnu Smith have left the Titans Henry becomes even more important to the Titan’s success because he is one of their only playmakers. New Titans offensive coordinator Todd Dowling may actually put more of an emphasis on the running game than they did under Arthur Smith. That is crazy to think about considering the Titans were second in the league in team rushing yards, rushing touchdowns, and rushing attempts. On top of that, they were also second in the league in rushing yards per carry with 5.2 yards per attempt.

The only downside to Henry having a larger role in the offense is that teams will be able to stack the box against Henry more frequently and could have more success. Due to the lack of playmakers that have surrounded Henry over the last couple of seasons defenses will put more focus on Henry and will stack the box with defenders to limit Henry’s production. Defenses will want to take their chances on leaving Titans playmakers (outside of A.J. Brown) in single coverage on early downs and short-yardage situations in order to try to keep Henry at or behind the line of scrimmage.

So overall the impact of Corey Davis and Jonnu Smith leaving Tennesee on Derrick Henry is that he should receive more carries than he has in previous years. But his yards per carry could go down because defenses now do not have to worry as much about the Titans passing attack beating them if they focus solely on Henry. This leaves Henry in a similar position as he was before Tennesee lost Davis and Smith. Henry should still be drafted in the first round in fantasy drafts and should be an RB1 in all leagues. He will still be in similar fantasy territory as Dalvin Cook, Christian McCaffrey, and Alvin Kamara next season.

A.J. Brown

In his second season, A.J. Brown continued to show the big play ability he showed during his rookie season. However in 2020-21, Brown was more consistent with his production. Fantasy owners felt more comfortable playing Brown every week knowing he would likely put up between 12-21 PPR points per game when he was healthy. Despite playing in only 14 games last year Brown scored the 12th most fantasy points among wide receivers last season. His 17.7 PPR points per game was sixth among wide receivers.

Brown has the most to benefit from former teammates Corey Davis and Jonnu Smith signing elsewhere. Now that Brown is far and away the most dangerous weapon in the Titans passing attack he could be in line for a career year. Secondaries may pay Brown more attention. But it shouldn’t affect his overall production considering the defenses already paid Brown the most attention out of the Titans pass catchers when Davis and Smith were on the team. Brown should definitely see a major increase in targets which should lead to an increase in total production.

It is insane to think about what Brown’s numbers could jump to in 2020-21. He already led the team in targets, catches, receiving yards, and receiving touchdowns. Now that the Titans second and third highest producing players in each of those categories are gone Brown should receive a large percentage of that production go his way.

If the Titans do not add any other major playmakers and Brown could stay healthy for the 2021-22 NFL season he could easily rise to WR1 conversation in fantasy in standard leagues. It would be hard to imagine Brown not exceeding his 17.7 PPR points per game from a season ago. Last year he was able to put up that type of production with only one game where he reached double-digit targets and receptions. That game was Week 17 against the Houston Texans where he had ten catches on eleven targets for 151 yards and a touchdown.

Next season A.J. Brown could reach the upside and production of other star wide receivers like DeAndre Hopkins, Stefon Diggs, and Calvin Ridley. All of which should be drafted as WR1’s next year in fantasy in all formats.

Josh Reynolds

In order to soften the blow of losing Corey Davis, the Tennesee Titans signed former Los Angeles Rams receiver Josh Reynolds to a one-year $1.75 million deal. For the last couple of seasons, Reynolds has been the fourth wide receiver in Sean McVay’s offense. He was able to fill into any receiver’s role in the Rams offense whether it was being the team’s deep threat or creating plays over the middle in the slot.

His versatility has made him a great insurance policy for when Cooper Kupp was hurt in 2018, Brandin Cooks was hurt in 2019, or 2020 second-round pick Van Jefferson wasn’t ready to become one of the Ram starting receivers. During his eight starts in 2018-19, Reynolds had 29 catches for 402 yards and five touchdowns. This past season Reynolds had career highs with 52 receptions on 81 targets for 618 yards during thirteen starts.

Automatically Reynolds is considered the second receiver on the Titans depth chart. He is not only the team’s second receiver but could also be considered the team’s second option in the passing game. Reynolds has never been more than a team’s third-option offense. It is very possible that Reynolds could have the best season of his career during the 2020-21 season in Tennesee.

Due to the lack of consistent fantasy-relevant production in the past and depth at the wide receiver position, it is hard to expect much out of Reynolds in a standard ten-team league. However, in a 12 team or deeper PPR league’s Reynolds could be a sleeper due to the number of targets he will see. Reynolds shouldn’t be drafted in standard leagues but could be a player to take a flier on in deeper leagues as a sleeper. If Reynolds thrives in his new role in Tennesee he could creep his way into flex territory in deeper leagues. If that was the case Reynolds would be in the same range as wide receivers like Randall Cobb, Denzel Mims, and Allen Lazard.

Anthony Firkser

The Tennessee Titans managed to retain one of their pass-catching tight ends Anthony Firkser on a one-year deal. Now that Jonnu Smith is a member of the New England Patriots, Firkser will likely be the Titans starting tight end last season. Last season when Smith missed Weeks 12 & 13 Firkser became a popular fantasy pick-up. Even though he disappointed in Week 12 against the Colts he showed promise filling in for Smith Week 13 against the Browns. He had five catches on seven targets for 51 yards. That was good for 10.1 PPR points, which many will take from their starting tight end considering the lack of depth and talent at the position.

Firkser has a great relationship with new Titans offensive coordinator Todd Downing because Downing has been the Titan’s tight end coach since 2019. Since Downing is so familiar with Firkser he may plan on making him a featured player in the Titans offense next season. Firkser’s only competition for the team’s second option in the passing game is Josh Reynolds.

Even though production from the tight end position in fantasy has been scarce over the last number of years there are still better options than Firkser who should be drafted in standard 10 team fantasy leagues. Firkser should be considered a fringe TE2 in fantasy leagues. He should be valued between TE15-25. Other tight ends within that range include Dan Arnold, Eric Ebron, and Jimmy Graham. However much like the players previously mention Firkser has the upside to finish within the top-10 if he has a breakout season.

When both Corey Davis and Jonnu Smith’s production from a season ago is accounted for the Titans offense has lost 106 receptions for 1,432 yards and 13 touchdowns in free agency. Removing that type of production will impact an offense the following season. It will also impact the fantasy values of the players on that offense.

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