The Good

The 2022 NFL Draft featured two stud Defensive Ends, Travon Walker and Aidan Hutchinson. It was widely known that the Jacksonville Jaguars were going to take Walker with the 1st pick. With that meant Hutchinson would be on the board for Detroit and it was a perfect match. The Lions were in need of a elite pass rusher for their defense and drafting the local kid was a no brainier. Hutchinson exceeded all expectations in his rookie season and finished 2nd for the Defensive Rookie of the Year. Now, Hutchinson will look to take the next step by being the leader of the Lions defense.

When Jared Goff left the Los Angeles Rams many thought his good days were beyond him. Turns out that is not the case as Goff has revived his career in Detroit. Goff has thrived in OC Ben Johnson’s system and in 2022 was one of the most efficient quarterbacks in the NFL. Big things are now expected from Goff in his third year with Detroit. I expect Goff to thrive again for the Lions and continue to impress in 2023.

The Bad

Last year, the Detroit Lions defense finished at the bottom of the league in most categories. For as good as the offense was the defense was pretty poor. They had a hard time stopping anybody and it put extra pressure on the Lions offense. Have the Lions done enough to address this weakness? In short no.

The Lions were able to acquire C.J. Gardner-Johnson who impressed with the Eagles but they lost CB Jeff Okudah. Emmanuel Mosley was supposed to help fill the void left by Okudah but he is currently injured with no timetable on a return. Fellow cornerback Cameron Sutton has shown flashes but will need to be more consistent for the Lions. I fear we could be talking about a below-average defense again next year for the Lions.

The Prediction

In my eyes, this is the year the Detroit Lions finally breakthrough and win the NFC North. The defense will still have its struggles but the offense will be even better than last year. Rookie Jahmyr Gibbs will make his mark in the backfield and Amon-Ra St. Brown will continue to ascend. Keep an eye on Dan Campbell AP Coach of the Year.

2023 Record: 11-6 (1st in the Division)

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Stats Don’t Lie

If you decided to take a chance and draft Jared Goff last season you were rewarded. Goff finished with 290.3 fantasy points and averaged 17.1 FP per game. He had an impressive 29 passing touchdowns and only 7 interceptions. This propelled Goff to finish 1st in touchdown/interception ratio at (4.14) in 2022. Goff was also only sacked 23 times last season which was just behind Tom Brady (22) for the least amount of sacks in 17 games played. What that shows is Goff is making quicker decisions in the pocket and throwing the ball away if needed.

When you look closer at Jared Goff’s 2022 advanced quarterback statistics it’s hard to not be impressed. For example, he was tied for 4th in passing attempts that traveled 50+ yards. Goff was not afraid to move the ball down the field and as we pointed out was smart about when to take shots in the pocket. Also, factor in that Goff had the 5th most drops by his receivers at 34. Even with the emergence of Amon-Ra St. Brown, the Lions receiving core was middle of the pack at best.

Jared Goff’s Fantasy Outlook for 2023

Now the big question is, can Goff build on an impressive 2022? The Detroit Lions were able to retain offensive coordinator Ben Johnson this past offseason. Johnson was a hot commodity on the market and rightfully so as the Lions finished 3rd in total yards (6,460). Goff should thrive again in Johnson’s system in 2023.

Detroit also made headlines this offseason when they traded running back D’Andre Swift to the Eagles. Alabama rookie Jahmyr Gibbs takes his place and will be an asset to Goff in the passing game. The Lions also brought back receiver Marvin Jones Jr. in free agency. Jones will help bolster this receiving core and take some of the pressure off St. Brown.

As it stands now Jared Goff has an ADP of #96 overall. To me, this is great value if you can draft Goff in this range. In our recently updated fantasy football rankings, I have Goff as QB9 and trending upward. If the Lions offense can take another step forward, I could see Goff finishing as high as QB6. He won’t quite crack the top 5 but will be awfully close and at this ADP that would be a huge steal.

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The current ADP below IS for Half PPR scoring.

Amon-Ra St. Brown (Lions – WR) | ADP – 15 | WR9

Amon-Ra St. Brown was one of the breakout stars from last season. The 2nd year WR from USC built nicely on his rookie campaign and finished with 106 receptions, 1,161 yards and 6 touchdowns. This was good enough for 214.6 fantasy points in Half PPR. There are a couple of stats that stick out for St. Brown. He had 146 targets and accounted for a 25.9% target share on a team that lacked real playmakers at the WR position.

Don’t get me wrong, I am still high on St.Brown but I don’t like him as an early second-round pick. The Lions brought back Marvin Jones Jr. and drafted Jahmyr Gibbs from Alabama to help bolster their offense. Jones will eat into some of Brown’s target share and I also like Kalif Raymond as a potential late-round sleeper. If I had to choose right now between Garrett Wilson (ADP 17) and Amon-Ra St. Brown, I am taking Wilson.

Davante Adams (Raiders – WR) | ADP – 13 | WR7

Only Justin Jefferson had more fantasy points last season than Davante Adams. In his first season with the Las Vegas Raiders, Adams put up gaudy numbers along with a whopping 32.3% target share. He led the NFL in receiving touchdowns with 14 and finished the season with 285.5 fantasy points. Adams showed no signs of slowing down at the age of 30.

If Derek Carr were still on the Raiders I would have Adams in the top-tier of wide receivers. Carr is now with the New Orleans Saints and in steps Jimmy Garoppolo. While I do like the fit, Garoppolo is not the same arm talent as Carr. Carr looks to push the ball down the field more while Garoppolo plays more of a short to intermediate game. I expect the Raiders passing game to be more balanced next season and with that Adams numbers will drop. If I had to choose right now between A.J. Brown (ADP 14) or Davante Adams, I am grabbing Brown.

DK Metcalf (Seahawks – WR) | ADP – 33 | WR15

Last season was certainly not a letdown for D.K. Metcalf. He finished with 1,048 yards, 6 touchdowns and 181.8 fantasy points, yet we expected more. Metcalf finished behind fellow teammate Tyler Lockett in total fantasy points (195.3) and touchdowns (9). New quarterback Geno Smith looked for Metcalf often in the red zone. He had 27 red zone targets but only 5 red zone touchdowns.

Looking ahead to next season, the Seattle Seahawks added to their receiving core by drafting Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Smith-Njigba was selected 20th overall in the 2023 NFL Draft and I really like his upside. This receiving group is shaping up nicely but I expect Smith-Njigba to take some of those red zone targets away from Metcalf. If I had to choose right now between Deebo Samuel (ADP 36) or D.K. Metcalf, I am taking Samuel.

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