By: Andy Davies

Last season, the Cleveland Browns earned their first playoff appearance since the 2002 campaign and their first postseason win since New Year’s Day in 1995. 

As a result, they went into the 2021 season with plenty of hype. However, it hasn’t worked out like this. The team’s current record is 5-5 and they are in a division where every team has at least 5 wins. 

So, what has gone wrong for a team that many had down as AFC North division winners? Is there still a chance to win it?

Inconsistent Division

The short answer is yes, they can. The AFC North is fast becoming one of the most competitive divisions in the NFL, but no team has managed to get some sort of consistency. Baltimore Ravens fans will certainly tell you that. 

They had a 5-1 start, which included a 46-35 win over the reigning AFC Champions Kansas City Chiefs. The week after beating the Los Angeles Chargers 34-6, a team that many have as a Super Bowl dark horse, they lost 41-17 to division rivals the Cincinnati Bengals. On Thursday night, they lost 22-10 to the Miami Dolphins, who were 2-6 before the game. More worryingly for the Ravens, the Dolphins appeared to show the entire league the blueprint as to how to beat them. 

The Cincinnati Bengals were briefly top of the division just a matter of weeks ago but now sits in 3^rd place. We have seen the excitement of the Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase partnership but have equally seen the defense allow at least 34 points their last two games as they suffered defeats to the Browns and New York Jets.

There was a difficult start made by the Pittsburgh Steelers. Despite the surprise 23-16 win over the Buffalo Bills in Week One, they lost their next three games to go 1-3. However, they have not lost a game since and now sit 5-3-1. Head coach Mike Tomlin has never had a losing season, but they still have to face the Chargers, Ravens twice, the current AFC number one seed in the Tennessee Titans as well as Cleveland.

Cleveland themselves have to also play the Packers on Christmas Day and the rest of their AFC North rivals, but also get to play a 0-8-1 Detroit Lions and an inconsistent Las Vegas Raiders. Their schedule is fairly favourable, but they have to cut out their own erratic performances if they are to succeed.

Sorting Out Their Own Inconsistencies

The Browns have really struggled for consistency this season. They won three straight games after their opening day loss to the Chiefs but have failed to win consecutive games since. 

If a team is to win championships, then they have to win games consistently. Whilst is it more important how you play in January than how you play in October or November, but you have to make sure you play in January past the regular season.

What have the great New England Patriots sides done in the past? Gotten a consistent run of good form down the stretch. This is exactly what the Browns need to do as runs like this help build momentum and confidence in the crucial postseason games.

The Baker Conundrum

Quarterback Baker Mayfield is easily one of the more polarising players in his position. There are some that feel he is the guy. There are others that view him as nothing more than a ”˜game manager’. 

So far in 2021, he has 1,990 yards, 9 touchdowns and 4 interceptions. This has him projected to finish the campaign with just under 3,980 yards but crucially just under 18 touchdowns and 8 interceptions. This would have him at around his career best in terms of yardage but his worst season when it comes to touchdown passes.

His career so far has defined patchy. He had amazing seasons in both the 2018 and 2020 campaigns but has been poor in 2019 and 2021. He will be expecting a good season in 2022 judging by how his time as a pro has gone, but there is no guarantee he will earn his new contract. This ends after the conclusion of the 2022 season, which may see him raise his game. He has to be careful that he doesn’t suffer a further dip in form. 

Quarterbacks such as Jimmy Garoppolo and Tua Tagovailoa may be available that would fit into the game manager role and allow the excellent run game to flourish. He will have plenty of suitors due to being the number one overall pick in 2018 and the two excellent seasons he has had but he will want to succeed in Cleveland. This is clear to see. One thing that hasn’t helped is the broken-down relationship with wide receiver OBJ.

The OBJ Dilemma

Say what you want about Odell Beckham Jr, the dynamic around him and Baker’s relationship cannot have helped things in Cleveland. Throughout Beckham’s time in Ohio, the talk of a lack of chemistry between the pair has been a constant talking point.

There is substance to this, with the fact that the Browns made the playoffs last season with Odell injured. 

The loss of running backs Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt to injury hasn’t helped, despite the best efforts of D’Ernest Johnson. The one-two punch of both backs reduced the need for Baker to throw to ball to. Instead, these injuries have meant Baker has had to throw to ball to. This can be seen by his stats, with Baker projected to throw for career highs in completed passes and his second highest total in attempted passes. 

OBJ’s dad has posted videos on social media of the amount of times Beckham has been open and not received the ball. There is clear frustration from the Odell camp. Now that he has gone, along with the return of Chubb and Hunt, will help ease the tension at the franchise. Should the struggles ease, with such a good plethora of offensive and defensive talent, this should see head coach Kevin Stefanski guide them to another playoff appearance (or two). Should things further unravel, then Baker will be vastly looking over his shoulder at Free Agency and the 2023 draft quarterback prospects.

The post Looking at the Browns Inconsistent 2021 Season appeared first on Pro Football Mania.

By: Grant Schwieger

The outlook surrounding the 2021 Minnesota Vikings has changed drastically in the last two weeks. A mere two weeks ago, the Vikings were fresh off an embarrassing opening day loss to Cincinnati and facing a much more difficult opponent in Arizona for Week 2. Minnesota put forth a much better performance, albeit in another loss, and returned home at a record of 0-2 to face a Seahawks team led by Russell Wilson, who had never lost to the purple and gold. In a surprisingly normal Seattle-Minnesota game, Kirk Cousins continued his hot start and led the Vikings to a W and suddenly the season did not look so bleak.

This Week 4 matchup against Cleveland truly is a fulcrum in the Vikings’ season, as a loss would bring them to 1-3. According to playoffstatus.com, Minnesota currently has a 67% chance to miss the playoffs. A loss would bring that to 71%, and a win down to 64%. A win over a potential Super Bowl contender would be huge moving forward, and there are 5 (or so) players who will be vital in pulling that off.

Rashod Hill

If there were an article about Vikings players that need to perform for each game, Rashod Hill would likely find his way onto it every time. Through three weeks, he has been the weak link for this Minnesota offensive line. His 42.7 overall PFF grade is last on the Vikings offense, he has the lowest run-blocking grade among Minnesota OL, and his pass-blocking grade is only higher than the perennial bottom of the league in pass-blocking Garrett Bradbury. His 8 pressures allowed lead the team and his overall grade is 3^rd lowest among NFL tackles. Pile all this together with the fact that first-round rookie Christian Darrisaw is beginning to do more and more in practice and will be active for the first time, and Hill is facing a lot of pressure to keep his job.

Taking a step back from the situation, it is unfair to judge Hill too cruelly. He has been a career backup swing tackle and not been a terrible liability when asked to spot start previously. At the time he was drafted, Darrisaw was meant to be the starting left tackle anyways. Hill is just doing the job he has always had, filling in when need be. The tough part of this week, though, is his job entails lining up across Myles Garrett, arguably the best edge defender in the NFL. I mean, who is to argue, when the below clip looks like Garrett is teleporting he is so quick. Not many NFL players can move like that.

The majority of Garrett’s snaps this year have come across the opposing LT, so Hill will have to bring it big time this Sunday.

There is a reason for optimism about this matchup, however. Fresh off of 7 pressures and 5 sacks against Tennessee in Week 1, Chandler Jones was held to only 3 pressures and no sacks in Week 2, lining up mostly against Hill. Klint Kubiak has done a fantastic job through three games protecting his offensive line and Kirk Cousins, calling a lot of quick game and screens, and getting the ball out of Cousins’ hands immediately. This way, even if any offensive linemen get beat quickly, it still does not affect the play much, if at all. Pro Football Focus has a data point called “True Pass Sets,” which are pass plays where the OL has to take a regular pass set, taking out any screens, rollouts, and things of that nature to best capture the OL’s pass-blocking performance. Minnesota’s OL has one of the lowest TPS rates in the league. Hill has allowed 7 of his 8 pressures in his 43 True Pass Sets, and 1 pressure in his remaining 83 pass-blocking snaps. Kubiak will continue to protect his LT as he has to this point, but there will still be plays where Hill is on an island vs Garrett. If Hill can keep him in check on those plays, Minnesota might be in for another offensive display of fireworks.

Bashaud Breeland

When Bashaud Breeland signed with Minnesota in the early parts of summer, it was widely considered a smart move by the organization to further bolster a new secondary. Breeland has followed that up by being the lowest graded CB in the entire NFL. It has not been a matter of scheme for him, either. He has the third-lowest coverage grade in man coverage and the lowest in zone coverage. I wrote last week about how coverage is volatile, and a bounce-back game for Breeland could very well be on its way. As the games go by, the chances of that seem to be slimming.

Patrick Peterson seems to agree that a slow start to Breeland’s season does not mean he will struggle all year. Breeland needs that type of encouragement if he is going to have any chance to regain his confidence. Secondaries are a weak-link system, meaning you are only as good as your weakest player. When your weakest player is among the league’s worst to this point, opposing teams will target them over and over. The Vikings desperately need Breeland to creep back towards average, something their previous CB2 Trae Waynes was in his time in Minnesota.

Minnesota’s CBs have not followed WRs so far this season, with Peterson staying on the right side of the defense and Breeland on the left. Cleveland moves their WRs around, so Breeland will get his fair share of matchups against Odell Beckham Jr. With Jarvis Landry out, the other Cleveland wideouts that Breeland will likely line up against are Donovan Peoples-Jones and rookie speedster Anthony Schwartz. Rashard Higgins will likely be in the slot on his snaps. This means Breeland will be in coverage against fairly inexperienced WRs for a decent portion of Sunday’s game. He has to win his reps against the young guys and hold his own against OBJ for Minnesota’s defense to have a chance. The Vikings cannot afford to have such a liability on defense much longer. Otherwise, Mike Zimmer might have no choice but to play disgruntled second-year corner, Cam Dantzler.

Michael Pierce/Dalvin Tomlinson

Michael Pierce and Dalvin Tomlinson get included together in this for a multitude of reasons. The first and most important one being that Pierce got hurt during practice this week and is questionable. If he is unable to suit up, this will all apply to only Tomlinson, and it will be even more important he play well this Sunday.

Cleveland has one of the best offensive lines in the game, along with what might be the best one-two punch at running back as well in Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt. The Browns overall have the fourth-highest run-blocking and pass-blocking team grades in the NFL along with the third-highest rushing grade. That all amounts to the highest Expected Points Added per rushing play in the NFL. Piecing that all together and it is quite obvious why run-stuffing DTs like Pierce and Tomlinson are vital to Minnesota slowing Cleveland down.

The Browns run the ball at the second-highest rate in the league, meaning the Vikings can expect them to come out rushing early and often. Getting stops in the run game will put Cleveland in second and long and third and long situations, allowing Vikings pass-rushers to tee-off on Baker Mayfield. Mayfield ranks near the bottom of the league in PFF grade under pressure, so it would be huge for Minnesota to get in the position to pressure Mayfield as much as possible. If Pierce and Tomlinson are unable to do their jobs, Cleveland will be able to move the ball at will and keep the Vikings on their heels, similar to what Minnesota did to Seattle last week.

While Pierce and Tomlinson are both known for their run-stuffing abilities, they can rush the passer when necessary as well. Pierce is second on the team in pressures with 6 and Tomlinson also has 4 on his 58 pass-rushing snaps.

Tomlinson’s best game as a Viking came last week as he received a game ball after the game for his performance and was the team’s highest-graded defender. Minnesota’s interior duo will have their hands full, as Cleveland guard Joel Bitonio is playing like one of the best guards in football, currently owning PFF’s top pass-blocking grade among guards and is top-10 in the run as well. Wyatt Teller, the Browns’ other guard, was one of the best guards in football last year. It does not stop there, as Cleveland center JC Tretter owns the top pass-blocking grade among centers and is a solid run-blocker too. However, there is good news for Vikings fans. Tretter is questionable for Sunday’s contest. If he were to miss the game, that could potentially give Pierce and Tomlinson the advantage they need to have a huge impact. (For what its worth, Cleveland tackle Jedrick Wills is also questionable, and their backup tackle Chris Hubbard is out, but that will not play much of a part for Tomlinson and Pierce’s games)

Nick Vigil/Anthony Barr

Once again, I am grouping two players under one umbrella, for similar reasons to Pierce and Tomlinson. Anthony Barr is questionable, with a chance to play for the first time since Week 2 of the 2020 season. If he can play, that would slide Nick Vigil down to the Vikings’ third linebacker. With Cleveland’s heavy use of tight ends, though, Vigil likely will see the field a lot no matter what. The Browns have 3 TEs that have all registered 83+ snaps through three games, meaning Minnesota will see a lot of 2 TE sets, bringing Minnesota’s base defense onto the field. This heavy personnel usage plays another part in Cleveland’s impressive rushing game, and their TEs, Austin Hooper, David Njoku, and Harrison Bryant, are 3 of their top-5 targeted pass catchers, too.

Barr has often been described as a leader of the Vikings’ defense when he is on the field. He will handle their defensive play-calling duties and brings an added element to the defense with his athleticism and versatility that Cleveland will have to be on the lookout for.

Plays like the one above are plays the Vikings just have not seen much of out of any linebacker not named Eric Kendricks lately. If Barr plays, that means he should finally be healthy enough to cause offenses headaches once more.

Vigil has received a lot of praise for his play this year, making splash plays like his pick-six off Kyler Murray as well as a big sack against the Bengals. His down-to-down consistency has not been the greatest, however, struggling in the run game at times.

He owns the 8^th lowest run-defense grade in the NFL among LBs to this point (former Viking Eric Wilson is last, for what it’s worth). Vigil has never been a huge plus in the run game in his career, so this should not come as a big surprise. He is capable of stringing together multiple good games in a row, though, and that is what Minnesota needs out of him right now. Between Vigil and Barr, the Vikings’ LB play in addition to Eric Kendricks will need to be big time on Sunday.

Kirk Cousins

Quarterback is the most important position in all of sports, so of course, Kirk Cousins finds himself on this list. Simply put, if Cousins does not show up, Minnesota does not stand a chance. The good news is that Captain Kirk has been playing like one of the best QBs in the league through September. He is Minnesota’s highest-graded player, and trails only Tom Brady and Ryan Tannehill in overall grade among QBs.

Much has been made about Cousins’ ability to succeed when kept clean in the pocket, and his NFL-leading grade when kept clean backs that up. What many fans are not used to seeing, however, is Cousins delivering strikes with pressure in his face as he did on this clutch third-down conversion in the 4^th quarter of the Seattle game.

It feels like we have seen that type of play happen many times with Cousins, but it usually concludes with him pulling the ball down and going into the fetal position for a sack before taking a big hit. Is this a sign of Cousins being a changed QB? That sure would be ideal for the Vikings’ chances, both this week and throughout the remainder of the season. His start to the season marks just the third time in his career in Minnesota where he has strung together 3 or more straight games with 80+ PFF grades. His weeks 10-12 in 2020 and weeks 5-8 in 2019 are the other two, with the latter resulting in Cousins earning NFC Offensive Player of the Month for Kirk-, I mean October.

This means that while Kirk has largely played well during his time in Minnesota, after a few good games in a row, he is usually due for a letdown game. Cleveland owns the 15^th highest team pass-rushing grade, and they rank 12^th in coverage grade. However, rookie CB Greg Newsome has been their highest-graded secondary player to this point and will miss this game with a calf injury. Minnesota cannot afford to have Cousins cool off from his hot start if they want to keep their season alive. What should we expect? Who knows, it is Kirktober now, after all.

The post 5 Vikings Players That Need to Perform vs Cleveland appeared first on Pro Football Mania.