Stats Don’t Lie

If you decided to take a chance and draft Jared Goff last season you were rewarded. Goff finished with 290.3 fantasy points and averaged 17.1 FP per game. He had an impressive 29 passing touchdowns and only 7 interceptions. This propelled Goff to finish 1st in touchdown/interception ratio at (4.14) in 2022. Goff was also only sacked 23 times last season which was just behind Tom Brady (22) for the least amount of sacks in 17 games played. What that shows is Goff is making quicker decisions in the pocket and throwing the ball away if needed.

When you look closer at Jared Goff’s 2022 advanced quarterback statistics it’s hard to not be impressed. For example, he was tied for 4th in passing attempts that traveled 50+ yards. Goff was not afraid to move the ball down the field and as we pointed out was smart about when to take shots in the pocket. Also, factor in that Goff had the 5th most drops by his receivers at 34. Even with the emergence of Amon-Ra St. Brown, the Lions receiving core was middle of the pack at best.

Jared Goff’s Fantasy Outlook for 2023

Now the big question is, can Goff build on an impressive 2022? The Detroit Lions were able to retain offensive coordinator Ben Johnson this past offseason. Johnson was a hot commodity on the market and rightfully so as the Lions finished 3rd in total yards (6,460). Goff should thrive again in Johnson’s system in 2023.

Detroit also made headlines this offseason when they traded running back D’Andre Swift to the Eagles. Alabama rookie Jahmyr Gibbs takes his place and will be an asset to Goff in the passing game. The Lions also brought back receiver Marvin Jones Jr. in free agency. Jones will help bolster this receiving core and take some of the pressure off St. Brown.

As it stands now Jared Goff has an ADP of #96 overall. To me, this is great value if you can draft Goff in this range. In our recently updated fantasy football rankings, I have Goff as QB9 and trending upward. If the Lions offense can take another step forward, I could see Goff finishing as high as QB6. He won’t quite crack the top 5 but will be awfully close and at this ADP that would be a huge steal.

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Before the start of the 2022-2023 season, D’Andre Swift was a running back many were targeting as a breakout candidate. He had just finished the previous season with 1,069 total scrimmage yards and 7 total touchdowns. Swift was primed to be the RB1 for the Lions and the only real concern was his health. Fast forward almost a year and it’s safe to say Swift was a bust. He is no longer in Detroit as he was traded to the Philadelphia Eagles this offseason. How does that impact D’Andre Swift dynasty shares going forward? Let’s take a closer look at how to value the former Georgia Bulldog.

2022

In consensus rankings, before the 2022 season D’Andre Swift had an ADP in the early second round range. Some even had him creeping into the late first round. If you drafted him that high it was a gamble that didn’t quite pay off. Despite a handful of top 3 weekly finishes, Swift was never able to put up points consistently. He finished the season with 167.1 FP (Half PPR) which was respectable but not the production we need in an early round pick.

Swift’s best game came in the season opener against the Philadelphia Eagles. He totaled 175 scrimmage yards in the game, including this walk-in touchdown.

The rest of Swift’s season was filled with ups and downs including him missing 3 games due to an ankle injury. Health has always been a concern with D’Andre Swift and we can’t put the fears to rest until he plays a full season. Along with health, the emergence of Jamaal Williams cut into Swift’s 2022 value. Williams finished with an incredible 17 rushing touchdowns and was RB12 last season. No one saw this coming and it just goes to show that there are always variables we don’t account for in our predictions.

2023

D’Andre Swift is now with the Eagles and when you look at it, it’s a great situation for him. Detroit has gone all in on rookie running back Jahmyr Gibbs which made Swift expendable. In Philadelphia, Swift is going to an already loaded offense that runs the RPO to perfection. Swift should thrive in his new home and will make the Eagles offense that much more dangerous.

D’Andre Swift’s Dynasty Value

Where do I rank D’Andre Swift’s dynasty value for next year? Currently, I have him as RB13 in our Dynasty Rankings. In comparison, KeepTradeCut has him currently as RB21. I am higher than the FantasyPros ECR currently and it’s because I really like the fit in Philadelphia. The only real concern is his health which is no surprise. D’Andre Swift is a BUY for me and if he can stay healthy watch out.

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RB D’Andre Swift Traded to the Philadelphia Eagles

Many people were wondering what the Lions were doing when they drafted Jahmyr Gibbs in the first round when they already had D’Andrew Swift and signed David Montgomery. Now we know that D’Andre Swift had requested a trade and he was traded to the Philadelphia Eagles. The rich keep getting richer as the Eagles now boast the most talented team in the NFL. In terms of fantasy performance, expect D’Andre Swift’s performance to dip as the Eagles are loaded in the RB position. The Eagles will most likely spread around the reps as they have Rashaad Penny, Kenneth Gainwell, and Boston Scott.

QB Jordan Love Gets Paid and is Now the Face of Green Bay

Now that the hoopla in Green Bay is over, the Jordan Love era finally begins in Green Bay. Love had waited his turn and can finally be called the starting QB of the Packers. His patience was rewarded when the Packers gave him a contract extension of up to $22.5 million, $13.5 million guaranteed. This offseason will be crucial for him and we will see which of the receivers are building a great connection with him.

WR Randall Cobb Follows Aaron Rodgers to New York

Another pal of Aaron Rodgers is going to the Jets as they have signed Randall Cobb to a one-year deal. This gives added security to the wide receiver core of the Jets as they have Garrett Wilson, Allen Lazard, and other weapons. With the Jets using what Rodgers loves on offense, Cobb ill be a good mentor to the younger ones to get them up to speed with the playbook. I don’t expect much from Cobb with all the names ahead of him. But he could have some vintage performances with Rodgers.

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By: Jake Rajala

The Detroit Lions capped off the 2020 season with a fourth place finish in the NFC North. The Lions started the offseason by searching for a new head coach. Dan Campbell, who was the tight ends coach for the New Orleans Saints, was hired to be the next leader in the Motor City. 

In a brief reflection of the Lions offseason leading up to July, the Lions have made some noticeable changes. Campbell shipped out Matthew Stafford for Jared Goff, the team opted to let Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones walk out the door in free agency, and the Lions drafted the decade like talent offensive tackle Penei Sewell sixth overall. 

All in all, the Lions appear to be in a rebuilding phase. The Lions took a step back at the QB position, they let both talented wideouts leave, and they appear to be building from the inside out (OL to perimeter). 

With all of this being said, the question begs to ask: Are the Lions destined to finish fourth in the division again and should fans throw in the towel? I believe the Lions have a very challenging task ahead, but the answer is a clear no. 

Here is why the Lions may not only end last, but also boast a chance to win the NFC North in 2021. 

• D’Andre Swift 

The Lions second year running back is undoubtedly the best weapon on the roster. It may seem obvious that Swift will need to perform with his expectations given for the Lions to have a fighting chance. Although, the enticing part is that the Lions have shown to have a winning chance and different outcome when Swift is playing exceptionally well. 

Swift ran over 80 yards only twice last season. In both matchups where Swift found success on the ground, the Lions came out 2-0. It’s a small sample size, but leaning on Swift appeared the utmost efficient, not to mention that two victories from the explosive RB was half of the regular season wins (four). 

Outside of the importance and examples shown with Swift’s rushing success correlated to victories, it appears likely that Swift will be a very talented halfback among the whole league next year. Swift grew into the RB1 role late last season and In the last six games, he collected four 60+ rushing yard performances. With Sewell and Frank Ragnow upfront together, Swift should build off his rushing success last year and continue to help the Lions oust more victories.

• QBs in the NFC North

The Lions will have a very difficult time winning the division if Aaron Rodgers stays in Title town. However, if Rodgers leaves the NFC North, the Lions odds would undoubtedly increase. Particularly in the head to head matchups, the Lions would have a much better chance of beating GB if Rodgers isn’t taking the field.

In three of the past four games the Lions faced off against the Packers, the Lions lost by less than seven points. 

Outside of GB, the NFC North QBs hold serious question marks. The Bears will either roll with the shaky Andy Dalton, or they will go down the path of having a rookie QB in a lackluster offense. Fields clearly holds special ability, but his NFL ready ability is a serious question. The Lions split games with the Bears last year. 

In Minnesota, the most stable QB situation resides. Kirk Cousins is a stable starter, despite not being an impressive force throughout most of his career.  

None of the QBs in the NFC North are clear above average QBs, or appear to have the ability to blow an average defense out of the building. Indeed, the Lions didn’t even hold an average defense last year. Nonetheless, the Lions should have a noticeably different defensive impression in 2021. 

• Improved defense

The Lions defense was undoubtedly dreadful in 2020. It was in fact the worst defense in franchise history. There is nowhere to go, but up for DET’s defensive unit next season. In fact, it appears that the defense will take steps of growth. 

Aaron Glenn was hired by Campbell to be the new defensive coordinator. As the DC, Glenn should light a spark in the secondary (Jeffery Okudah), utilize the speed of the LB core, and be more aggressive against QBs (which will work great in the division). Glenn helped Marshon Lattimore be one of the top CBs in the game, so he will look to help Okudah do the same in DET. If the Lions defense can make more plays and noticeably improve on the back end, the Lions defense will keep themselves in more games. 

With a stronger effort from Swift, weaker competition in pivotal divisional matchups, and the weak link (defense) completely transforming, the Lions should find themselves more on the winning side of their usual close games. It’s safe to say that the often scrutinized organization being led by the unpopular QB at least holds a chance to win the NFC North division in 2021.

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By: Chris Thomas

After the third disappointing season in a row under head coach Matt Patricia’s administration, the Detroit Lions have blown up their organization. They started their offseason by hiring Los Angeles Rams Director of Scouting Brad Holmes as their new general manager. Then Detroit made an unorthodox hire at head coach in former Miami Dolphins interim head coach and New Orleans Saints tight end coach Dan Campbell. But the largest change to the Lions that occurred this offseason happened at the quarterback position. The Lions executed a blockbuster trading 12 year starter Matthew Stafford to the Rams for 2016 1st overall pick Jared Goff, a 2022 first round pick, and a 2023 first-round pick. This gave Detroit the ammunition they need to complete what appears to be a long-term rebuild.

Expectations are not super high for Lions in 2022 since they have made it clear they are trying to build their roster towards the future, but after a fantastic draft adding some great foundational pieces the Lions may be able to shock some teams an win some close games down the stretch. The key for the Lions season in 2021-22 is running back D’Andre Swift.

Last offseason the Lions selected Georgia running back D’Andre Swift with the 35th pick of the 2020 NFL Draft. Many viewed Swift to be the top running back of the class, but he fell to the second round and was the second running back taken that year. When Swift got on the field he showed why he was RB1 on many peoples draft boards. During the 13 games he played during the 2020-21 season, Swift had 114 rushing attempts for 521 yards and eight touchdowns. He also had 46 catches for 357 yards and two more touchdowns. Those numbers may not look fantastic, but when Swift got double digit carries during a game he averaged 71.2 yards rushing yards per game which would have been good for tenth in the NFL a season ago between David Montgomery and Josh Jacobs.

Head Coach Dan Campbell has already publicly said that he and the teams coaching staff has a lot of confidence building their offense around Swift. He also said he could have the potential of receiving “25 carries per game”.

There have been multiple context clues that the Lion’s have shown through other transactions this offseason that have shown that Swift could be the focal point of not only their offense, but their entire team. For starters they added both Anthony Lynn and Duce Staley to their coaching staff. Both are are former NFL running backs who have prioritized running backs during their coaching career.

New Lions offensive coordinator Anthony Lynn has gotten great production out of the running backs he has coached over the years. During his time in Buffalo as the Assistant coach and running backs coach he got three Pro Bowl seasons out of LeSean McCoy. When he was the head coach of the Los Angeles Chargers he got two outstanding statistical seasons out of Melvin Gordon and developed Austin Ekeler from undrafted free agent to a dangerous NFL starting running back.

Duce Staley has become one of the most respected running back coaches in the NFL. He returns to that role in Detroit and is also the Assistant Head Coach. He has gotten the opportunity to work with some great veteran backs in Philadelphia including LeSean McCoy, Darren Sproles, DeMarco Murray, Ryan Matthews, LeGarrette Blount, Jay Ajayi, Jordan Howard, Miles Sanders, and many more.

The trade for Jared Goff also is a sign that the passing game may take a backseat this next season. Despite being a two time Pro Bowler, Goff has been more of a distributor than playmaker over his career. He only plays at his best when he has great pieces around him, including a dominant running game. His past two seasons in Los Angeles where the running game was not headline the Rams offense got the organization thinking that he may not be the teams long term answer at the position, especially since they are in win-now mode. Goff is a perfect quarterback for the Lions because he is a 26 year old former first overall pick who has shown potential to play at a high level, but can be easily moved off of after this season.

Detroit’s draft and free agent transactions were also very telling on what they prioritized offensively. During free agency Detroit shockingly let former Pro Bowl wide receiver Kenny Golladay and their leading receiver from the season prior Marvin Jones Jr. hit the market and sign with other teams. The Lions replaced them with veteran receivers Tyrell Williams and Breshad Perriman who are veterans who can stretch the field but may be more equipped to be a teams third option in the passing game. Instead they chose to extend former first round pick offensive lineman left tackle Taylor Decker and center Frank Ragnow. During the draft Detroit elected to take Oregon tackle Penei Sewell with the seventh overall pick over Heisman winner Alabama wide receiver Devonta Smith. The Lions didn’t take a wide receiver until they took Amon-Ra St.Brown in the fourth round. St. Brown has the upside to be a very solid wide receiver at the next level, but was not looked at a potential primary target in an NFL passing game.

By prioritizing the offensive line over pass catchers throughout the offseason it shows that they want to give running back D’Andre Swift every opportunity to not only succeed but to make an impact on every play. Nothing shows more of a “bite your kneecap off” mentality on offense than a strong running game. It is expected that Swift is the focal point of the Lions offense and the entire team because by if Swift can control the clock late in games it will help the Lions young defense stay off the field and keep opposing teams from scoring on them.

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