By: Zach Hurts

Who here values talent, opportunity, and good situations? I have a few people that I view as values right now with all the stars are aligning for them. This is what I call a buy window. A buy window is a moment in time that allows you to trade for a player at their current price and reap the benefits when they breakout and skyrocket in value. There are a few players that I have been watching during the NFL and college that just seem poised for a big season in the NFL this year and beyond. 

First up is Jerry Jeudy! This man is one of the best route runners in the NFL and I don’t say that about very many players. I want to break Jerry Jeudy’s rookie season down for you he had 52 receptions for 856 yards and 3 touchdowns. A very solid rookie season at face value. However, let’s take a look at some advanced metrics. Jeudy had 26 uncatchable targets last season which happened to lead the NFL. If you want a percentage that is nearly 25% of his targets were uncatchable. Now I know that Jerry Jeudy struggled with some drops last year and that is a small cause for concern. Teddy Bridgewater should change the inaccuracy problems with the Bronco’s QBs last year. Bridgewater finished 5th in completion percentage last season. Jeudy will be Teddy’s #1 WR and is on his way to being an elite option at the WR position. 

This WR has been shadowed by Justin Jefferson and Ja’Marr Chase.  Terrace Marshall is going to burst onto the scene this year. He is 6’3’’ 205 and a physical freak. When Marshall was at LSU without Chase and Jefferson due to Chase opting out Marshall commanded 28% of the receptions 33% of the team yards and 59% of their receiving touchdowns. 59% percent of the receiving TD’s is extremely impressive and with D.J. Moore and Robby Anderson not being big red zone threats Marshall fits perfectly. When he was the #1 on his team he balled out and we will see that translate to the NFL similar to Justin Jefferson’s transition. He is on a similar offensive scheme to LSU he will start as the WR3 but will have the opportunity to surpass Anderson and be a top 2 receiving option on this team. He is very underpriced in dynasty and it wouldn’t be a bad idea to send offers out on him. 

Similar to Jerry Jeudy this RB hails from the Alabama regime. Damien Harris ever since he has entered this league he has been an undervalued asset. In his rookie season unfortunately he sat on the bench all year and was not used heavily. Last season he was used in more of a starting RB towards the latter half of the year. He averaged over 5 YPC (Yards Per Carry) which is one of the better YPC in the NFL tied for 6th among RB’s. Last year Rex Burkhead and Sony Michel were involved in the run scheme and now they are both on different teams. Damien Harris will have most of the carries in this offense and will break 1000 yards on the ground this season barring injury. Cam Newton also took a large number of rushing TD’s last year making Harris’s TD upside limited. Harris is still being undervalued even with the backfield clearing up. He has little competition and could very likely see a three-down role. 

The last player on this list is a lean mean rushing machine that can also throw a deep ball with perfection. It’s not Russell Wilson, but It’s Jalen Hurts. Hurts was a beast in college who played very well in Alabama except for his first National Championship appearance which ended up losing him his job. He then came into the national championship the following year and led them to a victory. He transferred after he wasn’t the starter. He played lights out in Oklahoma and was second in the Heisman race behind Joe Burrow. This is very unmentioned. He had low accuracy in year one largely because his receiving core was bad.: Greg Ward, Alshon Jeffery, and Dallas Godert. His weapons are already drastically better. He was a beast on the ground having “12 rush attempts per game”. Hurts should continue to be effective. Outside of a new receiving core this year, he has had a whole year of training camp and preseason to develop and adjust to the speed of the NFL. He has the potential to be a top 5 QB in fantasy for several years to come but for some reason, he gets no respect. People love him in redraft but he will be a franchise QB, not just a 1 year transitional QB.

Overall all of these players have a lot of talent and have an immense opportunity to breakout. You want to buy them before the breakout happens. I am confident that all of these players have the situation, the opportunity, the talent to change their startup value by several rounds. As I always say send trades because Dynasty Never Rests!

The post Which Dynasty assets will skyrocket in value in the next 8 weeks? appeared first on Pro Football Mania.

The NFL is advertised by young quarterbacks that dominate the league like Patrick Mahomes, Russell Wilson, and Lamar Jackson. Even though these QBs steal the spotlight, they will soon lose many reputable leading statlines, records, and Lombardi trophies to the next wave of “young up and coming QBs”. These first-year/second-year signal-callers are often discussed profoundly in the media, but not on a high enough scale from different angles. By saying that, I’m going to highlight two QBs age 24 and under that, you should consider buying in your beloved fantasy league.

Let’s get started

Sam Darnold

Sam Darnold won the lottery when he was given the Panthers starting QB reigns. Darnold will light up the scoreboard with the familiar Robby Anderson, DJ Moore, and top purpose back in the league, Christian McCaffrey. Teddy Bridgewater was soft when it came to pushing the ball downfield, yet DJ Moore and Robby Anderson were still a Top 5 WR combo. Now the Panthers explosive wideouts have the talent of the 23-year-old Sam Darnold, they will really become one of the league’s hottest offenses. 

I’m not the only one sold on the former USC QB. Todd McShay, Mel Kiper, and Louis Riddick all believe that Darnold is the guy Rhule has been looking for. A reason that stands out from the notable analysts is that the Panthers were more competitive than many realize — the Panthers lost eight games by eight or fewer pts in 2020. Darnold is worth significantly more points than the veteran Bridgewater that was sent out the door for a late-round draft pick.

Darnold has also been very productive and clean with his turnovers in pre-season as of late. Darnold went 19/25, 162 yards, 2 TDs, and a 119 passer rating against Pittsburgh’s brute defense. The strongest crowd telling you to sway away from Darnold are the NY Jet season ticket holders.

Daniel Jones 

The NFC East QB out of the Big Apple was impressive (Yes) in 2020. Despite not having Saquon Barkley, a quality WR in the building, Jones did a lot with the situation and was even named PFF’s most improved player in 2020. On top of that, Joe Judge revealed that Danny Dimes played through severe injuries in the season. Despite Jones playing with a depleted, porous, crew and being banged up himself, the Giants QB had stout performances and was “efficient”. His passer rating improved from 65.9 as a rookie to 78.4 in 2020. 

Jones will have Kenny Golladay, first-round pick Kadarius Toney, and Evan Engram has returned to the offense. It also helps that the third-year QB will get to utilize his toys in the disastrous NFC East. 

I don’t believe that Jones’s aggressive pre-season passing in a poor limited display against Belichick’s revamped defense is the death sentence for the Giants young QB. The turnover machine is playing a ball hawk defense in August, so don’t be starstruck from some moments of struggle – which will surely still occur in the season. In fact, I believe it would make more sense to push for a trade now.

The Giants QB should very well outperform his rookie year TD count of 24 in 14 games. Let’s not forget, he was 12th per points as a rookie in fantasy, too. I fully expect Jones to put it all together in terms of production, efficiency, and fewer turnovers in 2021. Marcus Spears of ESPN said it right when he said if Jones takes care of the football, Jones will be a star and the G Men could win the NFC East.

The post Dynasty: Two QBs to Buy appeared first on Pro Football Mania.

By: Jesse Moeller (Twitter: @JMoeller05)

This week we are finding five players to buy at in dynasty. The list will be composed of one Quarterback, one Running Back, one Wide Receiver, one Tight End, and one of My Guys in dynasty. The players I am listing I personally have ranked much higher than consensus. By the start of the 2022 season, these five players will have a higher ADP (average draft position).

QB: Tua Tagovailoa (FantasyPros QB#17 DLF ADP 150.33)

Why is the dynasty community so low on Tua? Saying Tua had a rocky last 16 months is an understatement. Watching Brian Flores play hot potato between Tua and Rayn Fitzpatrick last year did no favors to anyone involved with the team. Now, he consistently has rumors swirling around him if he will be traded for Deshaun Watson or Russell Wilson. I am here to say fade the noise and get a share of Tua at the lowest price he will be in dynasty for the next decade.

It seems almost everyone in dynasty is worried about Tua, due to his perceived poor play and injury concerns. Before digging into the numbers I was worried, as the narrative around Tua and number one pick Joe Burrow seemed to be on opposite ends of the spectrum.

Why are they viewed in such different lights? Both players have dealt with severe injuries and performed similarly as rookie quarterbacks. If you don’t believe me, go ahead and take a peek at the thread Nick laid out below. It helps cut through the noise on Tua. Both players are dealing with bad offensive lines. The main difference is who they are throwing the ball to. Dolphins receivers were unable to separate. Here are the top three receiving options ranked in target separation. Davante Parker 108th, Preston Williams 105th, and Mike Gesicki 39th among tight ends. Putting him in second to last ahead of Zach Ertz. NFL windows are already tight enough, when you have players making it harder on the quarterback that becomes a major issue.

Would you rather pass to Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd, or Davante Parker and Preston Williams? The Dolphins recognize they need to address the skill position talent if they are going to further the development of Tua. Thankfully, they are looking into some premium NFL talent in Aaron Jones and Kenny Golladay. They are also loaded with draft capital to acquire young premier pass-catching talent. The offense will look a lot different in 2021, as the Dolphins hold five top 100 picks in 3,18,36,50,82. Expect them to target receiving talent to help Tua going forward.

Here are some stats to reinforce the point that Tua is an extremely accurate quarterback who had little help from the skill players in 2020. Tua was #2 in accuracy rating, 3rd in catchable pass rate at 80.3%. The Dolphins offensive line did not help Tua out either as they ranked 27th in pass block win rate at 51%. Add that all up, and Tua had the opposite experience as a rookie compared to his time with Alabama in college. Thankfully the Dolphins have $33 million in cap space and lots of ammunition for the NFL draft.

Tua is only 23 years old and can be your QB1 for the next decade in Superflex dynasty. The cost is very reasonable to acquire him. He is worth the 2021 1.07 pick. In 1QB leagues, quarterback value is extremely cheap. His value is the price of a 3rd round rookie pick. Go grab him now and enjoyed the success he will provide to

RB: Antonio Gibson (FantasyPros RB#14 DLF ADP 23.50)

The 2020 running back class is going to be one for the ages. Let’s talk about the one running back from the class that is being slept on. His name is Antonio Gibson, one that should already be on your dynasty roster. Want athleticism? Gibson has it in spades. He compares athletically to Jonathon Taylor, a player the dynasty community has anointed to be the number one overall running back in dynasty. They ran an identical 40-yard dash at 4.39 seconds. Both players have a 99th percentile speed score! (It does not go any higher.)

What about receiving upside? dynasty players love the pass-catching upside of D’Andre Swift, viewing him as the next Alvin Kamara of dynasty. It seems we have forgotten Gibson is a converted wide receiver who spent his first full year as a running back in 2020. Gibson has the track record to be an absolute force in PPR leagues moving forward. Gibson finished the season with 202 PPR points, finishing as the 13th ranked RB of the year. He did this while having a 45.3% Snap Share (39th) and a 47.3% Opportunity Share (34th).

The dynasty community has Cam Akers as a locked-in top 10 due to how he finished the season. That kind of opportunity is what dynasty managers dream of. Why is Gibson not considered a top 10 option moving forward? As Michelle brilliantly lays out below, Gibson was the better overall back last year. Gibson suffered a high ankle sprain in week 13, which put a damper on an incredible start to his rookie campaign. He had 39 targets through 12 games which put him on pace to pass 50 as a rookie. Akers had 14 total targets last year. The underlying numbers show how dynamic of a player Gibson was as a rookie. Gibson was 8th in juke rate, 9th in yards per route run, 12th in breakaway runs, and 13th in evaded tackles.

Add it all up you get a running back in fantasy who has the ceiling to finish as a top-five running back. According to Player Profiler, his value is worth 2021 1.01 in 1QB leagues, in Super flex leagues his value drops one spot to 2021 1.02. I would pay that price in either league to acquire Gibson. His upside is worth that investment.

WR: Amari Cooper (FantasyPros WR #17 DLF ADP 50.67)

With how the season finishedin Dallas, we all forgot how good of a year Amari had considering the circumstances. Amari concluded the 2020 season as the 15th WR, which was a let down considering he was the number one receiver after four weeks. The loss of Dak Prescott hurt the entire offense. The splits with and without Prescott are jarring.

Weeks 1-4: 85.1 Points, 21.3 Points Per Game, WR1 in fantasy. 12.6 Targets Per Game

Weeks 5-17: 151.7 Points,12.6 Points Per Game, WR28 in fantasy. 6.58 Targets Per Game

Volume is king in fantasy, and Amari was on a pace to compete with Marvin Harrisons’ record of 205 targets he set back in 2002. Projecting out the statistics he would have finished as the WR2 in fantasy behind only Davante Adams. The Cowboys offense once again will be one of the best in the NFL. Prescott is assured to be in Dallas for the next four years. The defense is going to guarantee Dallas will be one of the highest passing offenses in 2021 and Amari should gobble up targets.

What is odd to me about Amari is that he is considered an inconsistent player. When you dive into his stats they tell a different story. In five of his first six years, Amari finished with 70+ receptions, 100+ targets, 1000+ yards, and 5+ touchdowns. That shows you a remarkably consistent player. The lone outlier is 2017 where the entire Raiders team struggled to live up to expectations, not just Amari.

It is fairly straightforward to project career-high numbers across the board for Amari in 2021. Attached to the best passing attack in the NFC (sorry Packers), the offensive line coming back to health, and a bottom-tier defense. Yards and points will be abundant every Cowboys game of 2021. Having Amari reach 150 targets would be a low projection this upcoming season. Did you know that Amari more than doubled his slot snaps last year? He recorded 87 slot snaps in 2019, that jumped to 201 in 2020. A jump from 10.7% to 21.6%. That will only increase in the next year as Lamb spends more time on the outside in 2021. Both Lamb and Cooper have a chance to be top 12 WR in 2021. The volume of the Cowboys passing attack will support both players.

The price for Amari is quite reasonable for a player with legitimate top 5 potential at his position. Amari is worth a late 2021 1st round pick in Super flex or a mid-2021 first-round pick in 1QB leagues. That is a price worth paying to help you win a championship.

TE: Noah Fant (FantasyPros TE#6 DLF ADP 86.17)

Noah Fant is in that second tier of dynasty tight ends behind the big three (Kelce, Kittle, Waller) and the best tight end prospect since Vernon Davis in Kyle Pitts 😍. After those four, in my second tier, I have Fant, Andrews, Hockenson, and Goedert. These are the four players most likely to take a step forward and join the elite tier of dynasty tight ends. Let me tell you why Fant is the player you should be targeting.

Imagine how you would feel about Noah Fant if the Broncos decided to upgrade the quarterback position. (Sorry, not sorry Drew Lock stans.) This is the type of player you want to target in dynasty leagues. Someone with Fant’s skillset stands out amongst tight ends. The guy unquestionably exudes athleticism, which is something that inherently matters to the position. Can you name me the last uber-productive tight end that was not an upper-echelon athlete? (You are going to be looking for a while.) Fant checks every box on the type of tight end in fantasy that will make a difference for your dynasty roster.

Fant improved across the board in his second season with the Broncos. His Target Share went up from 13.9% to 19.3%, Snap Share went up from 62.8% to 78.1%, Target Separation per target increased from 1.48 to 2.01, his route participation went up from 56.5% to 75.6%. All indicators of a player becoming a vital part of a passing attack. Fant did this while missing two games in 2020 due to a rib injury. Fant also dealt with the inadequate play of Drew Lock which suppressed the entire Broncos passing attack.

The hype machine has solely been focused on T.J. Hockenson. even though he had a worse year than Fant did while competing with a far worse cast of characters in Detroit. I will bet on the better overall player in Fant every time. Fant is battling the likes of Jeudy and Sutton in Denver. Fant is good enough to earn a 20% target share regardless in Denver. Fant’s value in tight end premium league is valued similarly to Kareem Hunt or Kenny Golladay. If you prefer rookie pick values he is equal to a 2021 late first-round pick. In standard leagues, a 2022 mid-second round pick is the value. I am willing to pay that cost to obtain him.

My Guy: Tee Higgins (FantasyPros WR#16 DLF ADP 34.33)

Why is Tee Higgins a “My Guy”? He is someone that I view as a top 10 dynasty WR and at this point next year will have jumped a full round or two in ADP. Taking him in the fourth round of Super Flex startups is an absolute steal. At this time last year was going at the pick 1.08 in 1QB rookie drafts behind Jeudy 😨, Lamb 🤩, and Reagor 🤢. Sometimes the dynasty community misses on a player, and as a group we absolutely did.

Why did we all fade Higgins last year? One main factor that played into it, was his testing numbers. His workout metrics were doubted coming into his pro day, as he had the ideal “alpha” build at 6’4″ 216 pounds. He ran a 4.59 forty-yard dash and jumped 31 inches in his vertical. Both are considered subpar for NFL wideouts. That lead to the narrative of analysts questioning how good Higgins would be in the NFL. Boy, he proved everyone wrong the moment he stepped onto the field.

Higgins fell into a fantastic situation, being hand-picked by his quarterback Joe Burrow to pair with for the next decade. Let me tell you, Joe Burrow was unquestionably right about Higgins. Higgins finished the season with 67 receptions on 108 targets for 908 yards and 6 touchdowns. Good enough for 194 fantasy points and WR28 on the season. Higgins also missed two games on the season, if he plays those games Higgins storms past 1,000 receiving yards.

Higgins produced even after Burrow was lost for the season in week 11. From weeks 12-16 with Brandon Allen as his quarterback Higgins averaged 4.8 receptions on 7 targets for 55.8 yards and 0.4 touchdowns. That is 12.78 PPR points per game. Showing us all that Higgins can produce no matter the quarterback.

This is a player you are going to want to get before the price skyrockets during the 2021 season. His value in 1QB leagues is the 2021 1.04 pick. In Super Flex leagues the value is the 2021 1.08 pick. I will happily pay that price for him. I would be giddy to have locked up an alpha wide receiver for the next eight years.

Always practice what you preach. Here is a trade I completed to finally get my first share of “My Guy” Tee Higgins in dynasty. I am thrilled with it and come next year this will be viewed as a heist.

The post 5 Players To Buy In Dynasty appeared first on Pro Football Mania.

By: Austin Ebersole

Can you hear her? The fat lady is singing, and that means that the NFL off-season is here. In the next couple of months, I believe that we are going to witness one of the wildest off-seasons ever considering that two starting quarterbacks have already been traded for one another. From Adam Schefter taking the over on 18 of the 32 teams having a new starting QB for next season to the salary cap not being as high as it normally would be, things are going to be very interesting to say the least. With that, this makes being a dynasty football player a little extra challenging this year with trying to predict which players to buy, sell, and hold with all of the unknown variables this off-season brings. For now though, I would like to dive into one of the best divisions in the NFL, the NFC West, and what some of it’s teams and players have to offer. 

1st- Seattle Seahawks (2020 Record: 12-4) 

Is it me, or did it feel like the Seahawks had to work extremely hard to get to 12 wins? I feel like their 5-0 start was years ago, but we shouldn’t be surprised that Russell Wilson was able to get this team the division crown. Speaking of Russ, he may be a player I would be looking to sell. From weeks 1 to 5 last year, he was arguably the league’s most valuable player and his fantasy football owners were loving it. 

However, in his last 10 games including the playoffs, he only threw for over 250 yards twice and threw more than 2 TDs in one of those games which happened to be against a poor Jets secondary. Now I love Wilson the player, but as reported by Joe Fann, Pete Carroll is on record for saying that the Seahawks “have to run the ball better, not even better, we have to run it more.” If there’s anything to see here, it’s that the Seahawks will let Russ cook when they need him to, but moving forward they are going to be running the ball much more often. I don’t suggest that you undersell him by any means, but now may be the best time to sell him for peak value. 

Seahawks to Buy, Sell, and Hold for now: 

Buy: WR – DK Metcalf – 23 y/o & Under Contract through 2022 

Sell: QB – Russell Wilson – 32 y/o & Under Contract through 2023 

Hold: RB – Chris Carson – 26 y/o & Unrestricted Free Agent 

2nd- Los Angeles Rams (2020 Record: 10-6)

Rocking the NFLs best overall team defense by giving up only 18.5 points per game, it’s easy to see why this team clinched a playoff berth and beat the Seahawks on Wild Card weekend. It’s also exciting to know that Matthew Stafford will be chucking the ball around for them next season, but there’s one player in particular that tickles my feathers moving forward. Enter Cam Akers, and the opportunity that he has to lead this team in rushing for the next couple of seasons. 

Since 2017, the Rams have finished as the 1st (”˜17), 2nd (”˜18), 11th (”˜19), and 22nd (”˜20) highest scoring offenses in the NFL. Seeing their scoring drop every year is why they felt the need to upgrade at QB, but I want to point out that in those first two seasons, McVay really leaned on Todd Gurley to carry the team offensively. In those 2 seasons, Gurley was RB1 and RB3 in PPR leagues. Knowing that his teams best two scoring seasons were shouldered by his former RB, I fully expect McVay to call Akers number quite often moving forward as shown by his 21+ carries in 3 of his final 4 games to close out the regular season. I know that Akers is on everyone’s radar, but now would be the time to get him before he completely blows up in 2021. 

Rams to Buy, Sell, and Hold for now: 

Buy: RB – Cam Akers – 22 y/o & Under Contract through 2023 

Sell: RB – Darrell Henderson – 24 y/o & Under Contract through 2022 Hold: WR – Robert Woods – 29 y/o & Under Contract through 2025 

3rd- Arizona Cardinals (2020 Record: 8-8) 

When I look at the Cardinals and what they did in 2020, I’m impressed but also not surprised that they just missed out on making the playoffs. They were top 10 in red zone offense, 6th in total offensive yards, and 6th in rushing attempts. However, down the stretch, they failed to overcome divisional games against the Rams and 49ers where they were held to under 350 yards in both games. 

One of the biggest reasons for the Cardinals slip up at the end of the season was their lack of running game. Kenyan Drake was unable to get anything going, and only totalled 187 yards on 61 carries over the final 4 games. With a yards per carry average just slightly over 3 yards, Drake was unable to get things going especially after Kyler Murray went down with his own ankle injury in a must win game week 17 against the Rams. Knowing that Drake is an unrestricted free agent, I don’t expect the Cardinals to feel the

need to bring him back. I know that Drake is going to be a tough sell, but I would be looking for a team that is desperate for some RB depth and try to get what I could for him before the Cardinals give the keys to Edmonds or a rookie that they select in this year’s draft. 

Cardinals to Buy, Sell, and Hold for now: 

Buy: RB – Chase Edmonds – 25 y/o & Under Contract through 2021 Sell: RB – Kenyan Drake – 27 y/o & Unrestricted Free Agent 

Hold: WR – Christian Kirk – 24 y/o & Under Contract through 2021 

4th- San Francisco 49ers (2020 Record: 6-10) 

From playing in the Super Bowl last year to finishing in last place within the division in 2020, the 49ers are an interesting team to look into. There’s tons of rumblings about the Niners being in the market for a new QB, so I expect them to have someone new under center going into next season. Known for their high octane rushing attack under HC Kyle Shanahan, one would be surprised to see that the Niners actually finished 16th in passing attempts last season. Those who have Kittle, Deebo, and Aiyuk should be thrilled to hear this. 

I find myself to be very excited about this offense moving forward, and whoever ends up playing QB for this team should be on your dynasty radar. For now though, Deebo Samuel is the guy to target at this time. Aiyuk is the new fancy toy and a fun sell candidate with value, Kittle is a top 2 TE, but Deebo is the one flying under the radar a bit after an injury plagued season. In his last 10 games of the ”˜19 campaign, Deebo averaged 15 ppg and was also involved in the running game. With Shanahan operating a balanced attack (12th in team passing yards & 15th in team rushing yards in ”˜20), there’s plenty of opportunity for all 3 of these dynamic players to eat moving forward. 

49ers to Buy, Sell, and Hold for now: 

Buy: WR – Deebo Samuel – 25 y/o & Under Contract through 2022 Sell: WR – Brandon Aiyuk – 23 y/o & Under Contract through 2023 

Hold: TE – George Kittle – 27 y/o & Under Contract through 2025

The post Dynasty Buys/Sells/Holds For Each NFC West Team appeared first on Pro Football Mania.

By: Dave Stewart @davefantasy

So, the Super Bowl has come and gone. The Lomardi trophy has been given out and the confetti cleared from the field at Raymond James Stadium. While there will not be any football actually contested on the field for nearly seven months, there will still be plenty going on in the NFL world.

Free agency and the draft are just around the corner, but before then, we have a unique opportunity before us. While dynasty managers digest and try to make sense of all the information we have gathered throughout the 2020 season, player values are being hotly debated.

At this point in the year, opinions are often far apart. But, you can use that to your advantage when making moves to strengthen your team. Finding top talent, at a discount, will always be a sound strategy in a dynasty league. Immediately following the Super Bowl, you will see many people in the fantasy industry putting out their current dynasty rankings.

Simply taking a look through the comments of a Twitter thread will illustrate to you the variety of opinions on any given player. I have three ball carriers that I think you might be able to acquire on the cheap.

Saquon Barkley – New York Giants Barkley missed almost the entire 2020 season after suffering an ACL tear in week 2 against the Chicago Bears.

In just the third year of his young career, he touched the ball a mere 25 times. It is a far cry from the 621 total touches he had over his first two seasons. He has recently reported doing well in rehab and, a positive outcome from the time missed is that he did avoid the abuse of approximately 300 tackles.

Despite the fact that he will be returning from a significant knee injury, Barkley is only 24 years old and entering the fourth year of his rookie contract. Rested and in full health, he will contend with the league’s top rushers, but Barkley is also among the most targeted running backs in the passing game, with 203 in his career to date.

The Giants drafted offensive linemen in the first and third rounds of the 2020 draft and several mock drafts I have seen suggest they may take another in the first round this year. Whether they select a lineman or a wide receiver, many speculate that the pick will be an offensive player, which only stands to help Barkley.

A field-stretching wideout could help open up space. While he is not quite as undervalued as the other players I will mention, I have seen several instances of analysts having Barkley ranked outside of the top three backs in dynasty. For me, that is too much, as I still have him ranked second. If I can buy Saquon, at even a small dip, I am going to do it every chance I get.

Derrick Henry – Tennessee Titans It is hard to believe a back coming off a 2,000-yard season would be undervalued, but you do not have to look far to find someone who is out on Derrick Henry.

In fact, some are passing on Henry due to the 2,000 yard season and the 378 carries it took him to get there. This is his second consecutive season with over 300 carries and that is a lot of punishment for one player to take. But, let’s face it, Derrick Henry is no ordinary man. Not many ball carriers are 6’3” and 247 pounds. Henry has demonstrated his durability by only missing two games in his five seasons.

A lot of people will tell you to buy running backs on their rookie contracts and sell those on their second contract. I do not even think that is bad advice. However, I am going to tell you to buy Henry at his current price tag.

I have seen multiple rankings with Henry outside the top ten backs. That is just too much for me. He is going to get the work and he has had double-digit touchdowns for three straight years. I am counting on him to continue that streak and, as such, I am seeking to procure him at a reduced rate.

Ezekiel Elliott – Dallas Cowboys The disinclination towards Zeke has become a little perplexing to me, at this point. I understand his 2020 season was far from being one for the ages, but the loss of Dak Prescott was a heavy blow for the entire Dallas offense.

Zeke ended the season with 979 rushing yards and six touchdowns, earning 364 yards and five touchdowns in the five games Prescott started to begin the year. Losing Prescott to injury, along with injuries on the offensive line, was too much for Elliott to overcome.

Welcoming back a recovered Prescott, along with an offensive line at full health, not to mention Blake Jarwin who missed the majority of 2020, is a reasonable expectation for the Cowboys. They also have seen enough in offensive coordinator, Kellen Moore, to sign him to an extension.

It feels like a safe bet we will see Dallas return to a high-volume offense, similar to the beginning of this past season, though I am not expecting Dak to throw for 450+ yards three times in a row. Given that his value is at an all-time low, I believe Elliott can be had for a song, at this point.

At 25 years old, there is a lot of tread remaining on those tires. Buying Elliott seems like a low risk, high reward proposition.

I hope that I have planted some ideas for you, but it never hurts to just test the waters in your own leagues. Managers are giving up on veteran players with a lot of life left. Those rookie picks look awfully shiny this time of year, as well. Make some offers to see if you can’t find yourself a bargain.

The post Dynasty: 3 RBs to Buy appeared first on Pro Football Mania.

By: Christopher Krause

To round out my segment on Dynasty Buys and Values, I’m going to combine quarterbacks and tight ends, due to their more limited supply. Without further ado, here are three quarterbacks and three tight ends you should be buying for Dynasty right now.

Let’s start with our quarterbacks.

Jalen Hurts

As I’m writing this, Carson Wentz has yet to be traded. BUT where there is this much smoke there will likely soon be fire. This is one of the rare occasions where I would be more aggressive in a one-quarterback league versus a two-quarterback or Superflex league. Now let me explain. Hurts has a very high ceiling, as we saw in the few starting weeks last year. His peak score was 37.82 fantasy points in Week 15 versus the Arizona Cardinals. The flip side is he has yet to have a single game over 57% completion percentage. So, his floor is low as can be as a passer. In a single quarterback league, all I care about is ceiling. But, in a two-quarterback league, the floor is more important. Although I still say he is worth pursuing, I would not break the bank. Even with a Wentz trade, Hurts will still be outside my Top 12 Quarterbacks.

Jameis Winston

This former first overall pick of the 2015 NFL Draft has really taken a fall from grace. BUT I think his year sitting behind Drew Brees will bring a resurgence. As of right now, Drew Brees has yet to retire, though it is highly speculated and probable. Regardless, Jameis most likely will find a home where he will be a starter, as he is only one year removed from a 5000 passing yard and 33 touchdown season. With his price on the upswing but not reaching full peak, I think now is the time to scoop up Jameis. If you are the Jameis owner, now is the time to hold because if/when he gets a starting position, he is automatically a Top 12 Quarterback. He will also most likely be a Top 15 Dynasty Quarterback, contract depending.

Marcus Mariota

The player that is forever tied to Jameis Winson. A second overall pick in the 2015 NFL Draft, Mariota has also seen himself replaced and sent out of his drafted team. In 2020, he was the highest paid back-up in the NFL, sitting behind Derrick Carr in Las Vegas. Week 15 was Mariota’s only playing time all season, but he definitely showed there is still something there, scoring over 25 fantasy points in relief duty when Carr got injured. I think one of two things will happen with Mariota: (1) Carr gets traded and Mariota takes over; or, more likely (2) Las Vegas cuts ties with him because he is owed over 10.7 million with zero dollars guaranteed. There is no way we see both Carr and Mariota in Las Vegas in 2021. But, I think if the cut happens, Mariota will get picked up and get the opportunity to play a starting gig. For somebody you can currently get as a throw-in, it’s a low-risk high-reward player to target.

Now for the tight ends.

Mike Gesicki

Outside of the big three (Kelce/Kittle/Waller), Mike Gesicki is one of my most targeted players. Now a lot of us have been calling for this since this athletic freak has come into the NFL, but I believe with the current regime we will see the true Gesicki breakout come in 2021. Gesicki saw an increase in both targets and yards per game once Tua took over, and I believe both players will grow together with a full off-season.

Irv Smith Jr.

Irv definitely started showing up the second half of the season, scoring five touchdowns after Week 8. The biggest thing here will most likely be addition by subtraction. I do not expect the Minnesota Vikings to keep the Red Zone Reindeer Kyle Rudolph, as they would save a little over 5 million dollars by cutting him. This would open up 37 tight end targets and five more potential red zone targets. Smith, who had an impressive 67% catch rate in the red zone in 2020, could certainly be a recipient. 

Chris Herndon 

Did you know Chris Herndon was a Top 10 Tight End in terms of fantasy points the last four weeks of the season and only trailed Darren Waller in fantasy points the last two? Now this was one player we may have just been a year off on. A big breakout candidate for 2020, Herndon literally did nothing in the Adam Gase offense this past year. The silver lining is that when Gase was fired, we saw Herndon’s usage significantly increase in the passing game. This is still a speculative add, but like Mariota, it is one you can most likely get for cheap most. So, this pick is low risk with a good potential reward, especially in a tight end premium league. 

There you have it. Six more players I hope you can get at a discount that will most likely return or exceed the price you pay. As always, thank you for reading, and if you have any questions hit me up on twitter @KidFlashFF.

The post Dynasty: Three Sleeper Quarterbacks and Tight Ends to Target appeared first on Pro Football Mania.

Target Packers RB Aaron Jones and Bears WR Allen Robinson in dynasty

Ben Cunningham @benc1357

What is your last memory of Aaron Jones? A fumble and an injury that held him out of the rest of the NFL Championship. What about Allen Robinson? Sneaking into the playoffs on a poor team and having a below-average game in a loss in the “Super” Wild Card round. Two players with negative vibes to start the dynasty offseason filled with uncertainty about their futures due to potential free agency. This is when the value of a player can sink below their actual value to a dynasty team, and we should consider being buyers at the right price. Most dynasty players love certainty, and upcoming free agents provide enough uncertainty that savvy players can swoop in and take advantage.

If dynasty football had a Human Resources department there would be constant allegations of age discrimination. NFL players would have legitimate complaints of being dismissed for younger, and cheaper, employees. While the “age cliff” is a real concern there are values to be found in veteran players, especially if you can acquire them at the right cost in startup drafts or through trades. There is a strong emphasis here on acquiring them at the right cost, we should not overpay for aging veterans. Jones will be 26 during the 2021 season and Robinson turns 28 just before the season starts, these ages often scare many dynasty players away and rightfully so. However, let’s explore these aging studs to see if we should be investing in them as they search for new teams in the coming free agency period.

Aaron Jones

Aaron Jones’ career got off to a slow start, after being drafted in the 5^th round out of UTEP he took a while to get going due to injuries in his first and second seasons. Over the past two seasons Aaron Jones has been a league winner. 2019 was his banner year with 19 touchdowns to go with 1,558 yards from scrimmage and 49 receptions, good enough to finish as the RB2 behind the historic season by Christian McCaffrey. He followed that performance with a RB5 finish in this past season, again missing some time to injury and conceding volume to Jamaal Williams and rookie AJ Dillon. And then, that fumble happened.

Why is this important? Dynasty players have a tendency to over react, and that is putting it lightly. The best players have long memories and good patience, but many over react. When thinking of Jones many players will think of constant nagging injuries, uncertainty around where he will play in 2021, and the fumble that ended his season. Those negative thoughts could lead players to draft him later or be more willing than they were just a month ago to trade the soon to be free agent. One could argue, and I would, that Jones is the top free agent running back this season and should be a top target for dynasty players.

The Green Bay Packers currently have the fourth least projected salary cap space in the NFL in the upcoming season. This means some tough decisions are coming for a team that has gone all in only to lose two NFC Championship games in a row. They have an aging QB that consumes 21% of their salary cap and a certain stud WR that needs a new contract. While decisions and creativity around Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams’ contracts could create some cap relief, teams in situations like this are usually best served not investing heavily at RB. Combine the above with the team drafting AJ Dillon in the second round of the 2020 draft and it appears Jones has played his last game on the Frozen Tundra.

Early projections from many rookie draft experts suggest that 2021 may be a lean year for rookie RB talent. Add this to the list of NFL teams with the salary cap space to afford a veteran RB salary and a few potential destinations for Jones emerge. The Jaguars, Jets, Buccaneers, Dolphins, Broncos, 49ers, and Cardinals all stand out as teams that could use a RB upgrade and will have the resources to consider signing a player like Jones. Any potential landing spot is likely to be a downgrade in overall offense compared to the Packers thus limiting touchdown upside, however if the new team commits to true workhorse volume (unlike the maddening committee approach in Green Bay) Jones could still finish as a RB1. Many players are concerned about RBs entering their late 20s, however at 782 career touches Jones is relatively lightly used leading a new team to potentially run him into the ground over the next couple of seasons. That high volume, while not great for Jones’ health long term could be a gold mine for dynasty players who like to see their RBs do things like this.

Given all of these circumstances targeting Jones in the late 3^rd or early 4^th round of a startup could be a winning strategy if he falls that far. In terms of trade value a middle or late 1^st round rookie pick should get the deal done if you feel your team is one RB away from glory and the other player is looking to sell. If the pieces fall in place to acquire Aaron Jones dynasty players should seriously consider doing so.

Allen Robinson

Would most dynasty players be able to tell you that Allen Robinson was the WR9 in PPR scoring in 2020? Surrounded by sexy names like DK Metcalf and Justin Jefferson it is no surprise that a veteran player on an average team with a perceived bad offense would be easily forgotten. Yet after the Bears week 11 bye Robinson’s output improved and he was the WR5 through the end of the fantasy playoffs. In the coming offseason Robinson will likely be looking for the third team of his career after up and down stints with Jacksonville and Chicago.

An unfortunate truth about Robinson’s career is that he has never had a good quarterback throwing him the ball. A vast majority of the targets in his career have come from Blake Bortles and Mitch Trubisky, hardly future Hall of Famers. Yet Robinson has continued to produce WR1 levels nearly every season, a testament to just how elite he is and how great he could be with competent quarterback play. Because his name is not in lights each week this can create a lack of perceived value by dynasty players that don’t realize what they have. In case they forgot, here is a reminder.

There is a chance that Robinson is retained by the Bears. The team is middle of the road in terms of available salary cap space and behind him there are no dominant WRs ready to assume the WR1 role (Darrell Mooney is a name to keep track of though). Robinson had the second highest salary cap hit in 2020 behind Khalil Mack, so the money could be there to work something out. However, one would not blame him for testing free agency to see if he can find a landing spot with a better quarterback and chance to win. 

In free agency many teams with cap space to burn could use a stud WR. Depending on what the Colts decide to do at quarterback that could be a good situation, imagine Matthew Stafford and Robinson meeting up in Indy. With Chris Godwin an upcoming free agent Tampa Bay is another interesting possibility. A dream scenario, though highly unlikely due to cap space, would be replacing Sammy Watkins in Kansas City to match with Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce. Given Robinson’s consistent production and the likelihood that his quarterback support can only improve he should be poised for at least 2-3 more years of WR1 production for your dynasty team.

When doing a startup dynasty draft most players tend to target young assets with their picks, which is understandable. However after drafting early youth Allen Robinson would make a nice target in the 5^th or 6^th round if he is still available. There are two approaches in trading for Robinson that players should consider. He likely can be acquired for a mid first round rookie pick, some may even move him for a late first round pick if you are on the clock and rookie fever sets in. Another approach to consider is trading a 2020 rookie WR that you have lost confidence in. Maybe you didn’t like what you saw from Henry Ruggs or Jerry Jeudy, yet some players may be enticed by making their roster younger and be willing to move Robinson for them. You may have to add a smaller piece to get that deal done, so remember to always be willing to throw in a late round rookie pick to seal the deal.

In conclusion, there appears to be a decent chance that both Aaron Jones and Allen Robinson will be on new teams that will offer similar or improved fantasy scoring opportunities in 2021. However, due to the uncertainty of their futures and some questions from their pasts, their value may be depressed enough that a sharp player can take advantage. Go send an offer to your opponent that is rostering these two studs and see what you can accomplish.

The post Dynasty: Why You Should Be Targeting Aaron Jones and Allen Robinson appeared first on Pro Football Mania.