By Jesse Moeller (Twitter: @JMoeller05)

In the offseason, we have reached that point where everyone is sharing video clips and statements about the favorite rookie making a name for themself in camp. I’m going to focus on the part just as important, often forgotten around this time. That would be the rookies whose cost has gotten out of hand or the rookies who you should entirely avoid in dynasty.

Trevor Lawrence ( QB7 1QB: 83 SF: 10 )

Here is a trade I made moving the pick that would be Trevor Lawrence earlier this year. Even though the community disagrees (see below), I still stand by this deal. I wanted to secure a more impactful fantasy asset along with an extra 2023 first.

Jaylen Waddle (WR29 ADP: 1QB: 62 SF: 93 )

To review some analytical metrics where Waddle falls short are his age, height, breakout age, and college dominator. Now, it is not a death knell for a wide receiver, but it is much harder for that player to be a difference in fantasy when they fall short of those measurements. However, he does pass the test in two categories because he is an early declare (an older one at that) who secured that precious first-round draft capital. Draft capital is the single most significant indicator for future success. The team is more willing to give a first-round pick multiple seasons than a fourth-round pick””another logical conclusion derived from how teams value players and picks.

Waddle is genuinely a blur on the football field. Still, speed is less significant at the wide receiver position when compared to others. Amongst rookies, I prefer Chase, Bateman, Smith, and both Moore prospects before Waddle in rookie and startup drafts. He is an overvalued player in dynasty.

Mac Jones – ( QB22 ADP 1QB: 193 SF: 60 )

Mac Jones is strictly a Superflex quarterback. If you are in a 1QB league, I would not concern yourself with him, as he will never be the type of player to be a difference-maker at the position. Mac, while highly accurate, relies on his weapons more significantly than other rookie quarterbacks, as Jones cannot create on his own. He is placing higher importance on his skill position players, as Mac is a throwback quarterback. He does not possess the Konami Code that everyone is chasing at the quarterback position in fantasy. Once Mac was drafted by the Patriots, I lost interest in him from a fantasy perspective.

The Patriots have one of the worst receiving cores in the NFL. With them spending money on Hunter Henry, Jonnu Smith, Nelson Agholor, and Kendrick Bourne in the offseason to improve what will be on the field for the 2021 season and beyond. Go ahead and ask yourself, what is Mac Jones upside in dynasty? He still has to beat out Cam Newton in New England before he will ever start a game in the NFL. Newton is someone that the staff has routinely raved about as a team leader during his time in New England. There is a possibility that Mac Jones sits the entire 2021 season and learns behind Newton.

Let us say he earns the job this year and becomes the starter. We are looking at a quarterback in the Derrick Carr or Jared Goff mold for fantasy who doesn’t present the upside to ever jump into the QB1 territory for fantasy. I would instead take a chance on Daniel Jones or Jameis Winston, someone with the ability to provide separation for your team over the rest of the league. With an ADP of QB22 in Superflex, you can move him for both guys listed with something on top as they are ranked lower than Jones in the dynasty. I prefer to shoot upside with my QB2 in Superflex, so you can see why I do not put value into Jones. Your better off rostering someone else over him in dynasty.

RB Kenneth Gainwell – ( RB51 ADP: 1QB: 161 SF: 177 )

Gainwell was the offseason darling the moment he weighed in at 201 pounds. Multiple accounts Twitter accounts were taking victory laps, as the expectation was Gainwell would be a day two pick in the NFL draft. Then, a funny thing happened, the NFL viewed Gainwell drastically different than fantasy Twitter. Gainwell fell to the fifth round of the NFL draft. An undersized fifth-round running back has a lot to overcome to be a viable real-life and fantasy running back.

In the tweet above, @Dynogametheory listed what makes up a top 12 dynasty running back. While Gainwell hits a few of the marks, he falls woefully short on draft capital, speed score, size, and burst score. All you have to do is look around the league and see the only running back on this list that Gainwell comes close to size wide is Austin Ekeler. The difference is Ekeler is a far superior athlete. A small running back that lacks agility and burst sounds a lot like Devin Singletary to me. What is problematic for me about Gainwell is the lack of draft capital. Gainwell has to make a significant impact in year one in the passing game. The issue with pass pro, you have to protect the quarterback, something Gainwell cannot consistently do. If he is unable in year one, the Eagles will be looking for his replacement as a backup to Miles Sanders.

While his cost is not cheap, It seems incredibly unlikely to me that Gainwell ends up carving out a role as a productive fantasy asset in dynasty. Invest in other players around his price tag.

The post Fantasy Football: 4 rookies to avoid in dynasty appeared first on Pro Football Mania.

We are amid rookie fever as dynasty players have their rookie drafts. There are several strategies to construct a winning dynasty team, and drafting rookies with high upside is one strategy. Every rookie with upside will not hit their potential, but when they do on your roster you have a young asset in their prime. Below are three rookie running backs or wide receivers with enormous upside that you should acquire in drafts.

RB Javonte Williams, Denver Broncos

Javonte Williams was drafted 35^th overall by the Denver Broncos in the 2021 NFL Draft, as the third RB off the board. There may not be immediate upside since Melvin Gordon is currently on the roster, but in dynasty, you need to project into the future too. Gordon’s contract ends after the 2021 season, and he is not expected to be re-signed by the Broncos. The Broncos have built a young, talented offense and their offensive line is continuing to improve. They may only be a QB away from a high-powered offense or we could see Drew Lock improve his development this season. Williams has great all-around RB skills that project him to be a three-down RB when he takes over the backfield. That is rare nowadays in the NFL. Williams is also a young rookie since he just turned 21 years old at the end of April. All of these factors give Javonte Williams a high upside, and you do not even need to draft him at 1.01!

WR Jaylen Waddle, Miami Dolphins

Jaylen Waddle was drafted 6^th overall by the Miami Dolphins in the 2021 NFL Draft, as the second WR off the board. Waddle’s junior season at the University of Alabama was cut short due to an injury, but he is expected to be fully healthy going into his rookie season with the Dolphins. Waddle did not run the 40-yard dash during his pro day, but everyone knows he is a speedster and can run an extremely fast 40-yard dash. Several analysts have compared Waddle to Tyreek Hill because of his size and speed, and this may be a lazy comparison but only time will tell to see how productive Waddle can be on the field. The Miami Dolphins have been collecting first-round picks for several years and they now have a good, young team and have more first-round picks in the next couple of seasons. Tua Tagovailoa, who played with Waddle in college, did not have a stellar rookie season, but he was coming back for a significant hip injury. The offensive coordinator has changed, and the team has extreme speed on the field this year after signing Will Fuller and drafting Jaylen Waddle. Tua will improve this season and Waddle will develop with this younger team. Waddle has the skill set to be a big play waiting to happen on any play. If he can be consistent with big plays then he can be a WR1 in fantasy football. Just like Javonte Williams, Waddle is capable of being a dominant player for many years to come and you do not need to have the 1.01 pick to draft him.

WR Rondale Moore, Arizona Cardinals

Rondale Moore was drafted 49^th overall by the Arizona Cardinals in the 2021 NFL Draft, as the sixth WR off the board. Moore had an incredible freshman year at Purdue University with 135 touches, 1,471 scrimmage yards, and 14 total TDs in 13 games! Unfortunately, due to injuries Moore only played 7 games total for his sophomore and junior year. He is only 5’ 7”, but insanely explosive with a 4.29 40 yard dash and 42.5” vertical jump! Moore joins a dynamic passing offense led by QB Kyler Murray. He may start as the third WR on the depth chart behind DeAndre Hopkins and A.J. Green, if healthy, but he will get at least 60% of snaps. If A.J. Green does not perform well this season then he can be cut next offseason after 6/1 without a dead cap hit and a $2.5 million savings for the team. Moore is going to develop alongside Murray, who appears to be an exciting and dynamic young QB. Rondale Moore has the skill set to capitalize on big plays in this offense for many years to come. As with most rookie WRs, you may not get a lot of fantasy points this year, but there is so much upside for him to be at least a WR2 for several years soon.

The post Three rookie RB/WRs with the most upside in dynasty appeared first on Pro Football Mania.

By: Joe Mason @josephmason94

The NFL offseason is upon us and lucky for you if you play dynasty, there is no offseason! The best way to build your team is through the rookie draft, so which guys should you target? These six rookie gems need to be on the top of everyone’s draft boards for their raw talent and upside. Let’s dive in!

*Please note the below measurements are not official and the player age is their age at the time of the upcoming NFL draft.

DeVonta Smith (WR / Alabama)

Age: 22 / Height: 6’1” / Weight: 175 lbs.

What better prospect to start with than the 2021 Heisman winner. Smith put up 117/1856/23 in his senior season while also dropping 12/215/3 in the national title game. Just wow. The electric player can create separation with ease, has shown strong hands, and has been a go-to in the redzone for quarterback Mac Jones.

Some people give Smith a hard time for his below average frame (175 lbs) which is smaller than Marquise “Hollywood” Brown (180 lbs). I don’t see this being an issue for his on the field production, but this could cause him to fall in rookie drafts. All that means is you get him at a discount. Also, something to note, he had a better 2020 season than Henry Ruggs, who was the first WR taken in the 2020 NFL draft. I had him better than Ruggs last year, so the sky is the limit for this kid.

If you can play in the NFL, teams won’t hold you back, especially if they drop first round draft capital. Players with below average height/weight have had success in the NFL. Some examples are Darren Sproles, Kyler Murray. Tyreek Hill, Delanie Walker, and Tarik Cohen.

Smith is currently going at the 1.04 in 1QB rookie mock drafts. I anticipate him falling to the 1.05-1.07 range after other rookies head to good landing spots and the hype starts moving their ADP. I will take that value all day. Although he is not my rookie WR1 in this draft class, you can’t go wrong with DeVonta Smith. I have his ideal landing spot as the Miami Dolphins where they reunite him with Tua Tagovalioa.

Kyle Pitts (TE / Florida)

Age: 20 / Height: 6’6” / Weight: 246 lbs.

At only 20 years old, Kyle Pitts won the John Mackey Most Outstanding Tight End Award, joining the likes of T.J. Hockenson, Mark Andrews, Kellen Winslow, and Dallas Clark. His 6’6” height and slim frame should put him as the second pass catcher off the draft board, and as long as he stays a tight end in the NFL, he drops in as the dynasty TE4 right off the bat only behind Kelce, Kittle, and Waller.

Pitts junior year at Florida was a productive one. In only 8 games he recorded 43/770/12 on a 17.9 yards per catch. He finished fifth in the SEC in touchdowns and sixth in receiving yards even with the low number of games played. The only knock on him currently is his blocking which to evolve in the NFL he will need to put on weight and work on his pass/run blocking ability. His NFL comp is Darren Waller but Pitts has the ability to stretch the field. He has a release off the line similar to George Kittle and is a matchup nightmare for linebackers due to speed and cornerbacks due to his height.

There are a couple potential landing spots where Pitts could contribute right away. The Chargers would be intriguing with Justin Herbert, and the Cowboys would be a complete offense if they snag Pitts. I have his ideal location as Arizona where the Cardinals would benefit greatly from a presence over the middle and would help Hopkins out with another legitimate target in the offense.

Javonte Williams (RB / UNC)

Age: 21 / Height: 5’10” / Weight: 220 lbs.

The most intriguing guy on this list is Javonte Williams. Since we entered the offseason, Williams has seen all the twitter hype and is currently the dark horse for the RB1 of this class. Williams does everything well and put up 157/1140/19 even with a strong RB2 at UNC with him in Michael Carter.

He is currently going at the 1.07 in rookie mocks, but I fully expect him to be a top 5 rookie pick if he finds a good home in the NFL draft. Clyde Edwards-Helaire was rookie RB4 or RB5 last year and catapulted up to the 1.01 in most rookie drafts. This easily could happen to Williams. If he goes to a bad landing spot with a crowded backfield, all it means is he can be acquired for a discount in the draft or via trade. His talent level belongs in the top six rookies. Something I have learned since playing dynasty is talent > landing spot every time.

Where could Williams utilize his talent fully? His ideal landing spot for me is the San Francisco 49ers. I have not seen the 49ers spend high draft capital on a running back since Carlos Hyde in 2014. Williams is a projected early day two pick, so he would need to fall in the draft to make John Lynch interested in him. One thing for sure is if coach Shanahan likes a running back, he tells the GM to go get his guy.

Najee Harris (RB / Alabama)

Age: 23 / Height: 6’2” / Weight: 230 lbs.

The consensus 1.01 pre-landing spot in the 2021 class is Alabama’s Najee Harris. His size and speed combo make him a lethal prospect who can run between the tackles and also catch the ball. In his senior season in 2020, Harris put up his best production with a 251/1466/26 rushing line and a 43/425/4 receiving line. Many considered this the best Alabama offense of all time and they delivered in a big way winning the national championship game over Ohio State.

Harris is a bit of a late bloomer, but he did have to play behind guys like Damien Harris and Josh Jacobs at Alabama. Harris will be 23 by the time the NFL draft kicks off, and he is less than a year younger than Josh Jacobs who is entering his third year in the NFL. The age isn’t a deal breaker for me, but if you read my article on how to evaluate a trade in dynasty, just know Harris might have a smaller fantasy relevant window than some of these other younger running backs. One thing for sure is when he leads the backfield, he produces.

So where would Najee land and have a chance to produce right away? I have his ideal landing spot as the New York Jets. The Jets have recently invested in their offensive line, and have two first round picks (2) (23 from Seattle). Paired with a new top QB, Harris would be the lead back right away. In the NFL, I expect him to put up plays and make the highlight real on ESPN like he did against Notre Dame in the Rose Bowl.

Travis Etienne (RB / Clemson)

Age: 22 / Height: 5’10” / Weight: 205 lbs.

In the loaded 2020 rookie running back class, some analysts had Travis Etienne as their RB1. He surprisingly decided to return to Clemson for the 2021 season. Etienne is arguably the best pass catcher we have seen come out of college in a long time.

In his senior season, Etienne put up 168/914/14 on the ground while catching 18/588/2 through the air. His best season came in 2019 where he put up his 2^nd straight 1600+ rushing year going 207/1614/19 on 37/432/4 through the air. What a 2019 year Etienne had.

Some people question Etienne’s ability to be a true three down back citing he has some problems running between the tackles. In fantasy we have seen running backs with the ability to produce without running the ball efficiently, and just being able to catch the ball brings true upside and value. I see his pass catching ability as tremendous upside that would put Etienne near the top if he can land in the right place.

Just from viewing the tape, its safe to say Etienne will thrive if he can land in the right place that will throw him the ball in space, and allow him to use his skills to make defenders miss while breaking big plays. I have his ideal landing spot as Pittsburgh. Big Ben throws the ball to the running back position and this surrounding cast with the volume Etienne would get would make him an RB1 candidate out the gate.

Ja’Marr Chase (WR / LSU)

Age: 21 / Height: 6’0” / Weight: 208 lbs.

Many have Ja’Marr Chase as the top wideout in the class, and I have to agree with the majority. Chase offers the physical specimen, the athletic ability, and the high football IQ to be a successful NFL player at the next level.

Chase only has one full season of college production to show for, but boy was it a season. In his sophomore year at LSU, he put up 84/1780/20 which by the way was better than Justin Jefferson’s (111/1540/18). Chase ended up opting out on the 2020 season due to COVID concerns. He has been spending his time focusing on preparing his body for the speed and toughness of the NFL. This recent picture of Devonta Smith, Justin Jefferson, and Ja’Marr Chase show that Chase has put on the muscle to go break presses and win contested catches at the next level.

Chase is the best all-around WR talent in this class. He brings a safe floor with plenty of upside giving me a valid reason to take him as the top wideout in this class. I have his ideal landing spot at the Eagles where he would lead the WR room and produce immediately with Jalen Hurts. The Eagles need a true alpha WR and Chase is the perfect fit for this system.

The post Dynasty: Top 6 Rookies to Target appeared first on Pro Football Mania.