The post Dynasty Trade Value Chart 2023 appeared first on Pro Football Mania.

By: Jake Rajala

The dynasty fantasy football season is always in progress. Improving one’s fantasy roster and gaining a step ahead of your opponents doesn’t rest in the 365-day dynasty fantasy football course.

Everybody’s quarterback spot is always being monitored and rightfully so, the QB spot needs to be sharp and consistent. Just as seeking QB talent is the utmost necessary, it’s important to find out which signal-callers should be shipped away. There are many opportunities to deal a QB with smaller compensation with aim of acquiring a much better long-term QB.

In this outlook, I’m going to lay out two notable names that should be avoided in dynasty leagues. Let’s take a deep dive into this dynasty QB piece.

Jameis Winston ”“ New Orleans Saints

I stand by my claim that Jameis Winston is the “most overhyped QB heading into 2021”. I feel strongly that hefty paid Taysom Hill, who shined when given the starting role, will reclaim the duties when Week 1 is underway. Personally, I feel like Hill and Winston are not the long-term answer for Sean Payton’s offense, anyways. Payton wants his guy and a talented guy with that. I believe the Saints will make a strong effort to trade up for the right QB in next year’s draft. I don’t foresee Payton acting as Andy Reid did and trying to get by with a QB like Alex Smith or Donovan McNabb. Payton likes to light up the scoreboard and oust routine Top 5 offensive performances.

If Winston does earn the starting nod in 2021, he’s still the same QB that threw 14+ interceptions in nearly every season for the Bucs. If Winston does start and manages to be modest (appears most likely), I see Payton trusting himself elsewhere instead of signing Winston to a monster deal after Winston’s one-year deal finishes after this season. I simply believe there is far too much risk all around for Winston’s ability to shine with the Saints.

Take advantage of the insane hype with the former first overall pick, former passing TD and passing yard leader, and player that is often shown working out intensely. I believe trading Winston with potentially some draft compensation or player for the likes of sleeper QB Daniel Jones, or stud Matthew Stafford, or rookie Mac Jones, it would really be a great move.  

Kyler Murray ”“ Arizona Cardinals

The Arizona Cardinals have a talented QB in Kyler Murray, but he would be the perfect QB to trade away. He’s ranked as the actual third QB in dynasty right now. He’s a talented dual-threat QB, but I believe he’s one of the most controversial Top 3 dynasty QBs in the last several years. I believe he’s the perfect player to trade away.

Murray will be a Top 5 stat machine, but I don’t love his ceiling. He doesn’t appear to have his team in the ring for the NFC West prize and he’s not shown the ability to bully divisional defenses (Seahawks, Rams, 49ers) when he must. Murray may have gotten multiple additions to his offense, but they won’t propel the unit to an elite passing machine.

AJ Green is on his last legs and Rondale Moore doesn’t appear to be a lock starter yet. I personally believe an underlooked factor is that Kliff Kingsbury could likely be out the door after this upcoming season or next year if the Cardinals don’t compete strongly in the NFC West (as they appear to be fourth place favorites right now). If you could get a talented “Joe Burrow or Trevor Lawrence out of Murray AND quality draft compensation”, give it the green light.

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How to evaluate a trade in dynasty fantasy football

By: Joe Mason @JosephMason94

Dynasty fantasy football has become one of the most popular fantasy league formats within the fantasy community. It gives you a sense of ownership and with it comes the responsibility as that of a real NFL general manager.

Trading in dynasty can be intimidating, but unlike your standard redraft league, trades in a dynasty league has implications for a number of years with the potential to either make or break your squad. At times a player’s value can fluctuate more than the New York Stock Exchange, requiring the most dedicated owners to always stay on top of league news, player contracts, player age”¦etc. I have been on the winning and losing side of a number of dynasty trades over the years. With that pleasure and pain, I’ve experienced, I’m here to give you the key specifics you should focus on to help you become better at trading in dynasty fantasy football. 

A Players Value

Trading in dynasty fantasy football is all about understanding a player’s value. Sure, trade calculators can give you a general understanding on if you win or lose a trade, but sometimes they are outdated and trades you make should really be specific to your team. So, what factors should you consider when assessing a player’s value? 

Contract

While this doesn’t seem to correlate to on-field production, a player locked into a contract of three or more years should give dynasty owners a sense of security. Player holdouts have become increasingly popular over the years and having your top guy such as LeVeon Bell in 2018 miss out on the season to get paid can really hurt your squad. This is another reason why it’s important to hold other teams running back handcuffs. They may produce for you, or you can flip them to the team that has a starter holding out for a nice return. 

Supporting Cast / Coaches

For supporting cast, this primarily applies to the skill position players where a QB can make or break a player’s production. Take into account Ezekiel Elliot for the 2020 season and his splits with and without Dak Prescott in PPR. 

The targets per game are big here, especially for the running back position. A quarterback can have this type of impact on your skill position players so it’s important to also monitor their QB’s contract situation. 

Coaching in every sport is important, but in football I believe coaching has the biggest influence on the game. Coaches have certain tendencies that can help you predict how free agents or rookies can perform in their new home. 

Appreciating vs. Declining Asset

Dynasty is all about the fluctuation of player value and knowing when to buy and when to sell. More often than not you want to acquire players who have potential to increase in value.

A big factor in determining this for every player is peak production age by position. Jonathan Bales, author of “Fantasy Football for Smart People” (2013) found the age of decline for each position.

Quarterbacks peak around the age of 30 and have the longest shelf life of the four positions but can be relevant into their late 30s. Tight ends take the longest to develop and peak at 29, but there is a steep drop off once they hit their ceiling.

Wide receivers peak around age 26/27 and can sustain value into their early 30s. Running backs have the highest turnover out of the four positions and tend to peak at age 26.

Once a running back is off his rookie contract is when I tend to sell high. They most likely have hit their ceiling and will only decline in value going forward. While age is important in a dynasty, the main goal is to win a championship and build a team that can contend year in and year out.

Don’t let age weigh too much into your trades but be aware of the age where you tend to see a decline in production. Now with this information, I gave you, go see if you can move your age 26 RB1 from this year for a much younger RB2 while maybe picking up a young WR that underperformed this year. Your team over the next few years will thank you. 

Finding a Value and Pursuing It

D’Andre Swift was the top running back on many analysts draft boards before the 2020 NFL Draft. A first-round talent, Swift ended falling on day two in the second round to the Detroit Lions which most people considered a bad landing spot for running backs.

The Lions owned a league-low three 100 yard-rushing games since Reggie Bush did it on Thanksgiving in 2013 against the Packers. Kerryon Johnson owns all three of them with two in 2018 and one in 2019.

Swift ended up being the fourth or fifth rookie running back taken off the board in rookie drafts in favor of those with better landing spots. If you owned a mid-rookie first, you may be lucked out and snagged him. If not, you only had a short “buy window” before he was no longer a value. 

A great way to assess a player’s value is by tracking their ADP. If you believe that a player will be going above their ADP one year from today, you can consider this a “buy window”.

As talented a player as Swift is, his ADP should have been rounds 3-4 right next to another top rookie RBs. Swift hovered around the sixth round before the season and after a slow start, he dropped to an ADP of round 7.

If you were watching the Lions games each week, you could easily tell he was the most efficient back between him, Adrian Peterson, and Kerryon Johnson. On November 14^th before week 10, the Lions named him the starter and his ADP never looked back. 

To recap, use the factors I called out above to help you form an opinion on a player. Then, if they have a chance to appreciate in value, they would make a nice dynasty target for your squad. The fastest way to improve your dynasty squad is by winning trades and these key items above can help you get there.

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