Key Injuries to Quarterbacks: Tough week for Lamar Jackson and Jimmy Garoppolo, with Garoppolo taking the worse of his injury. He will be out for the year as Lamar is considered week to week. For SF a huge blow as then Super Bowl hopefuls are considered just playoff bound. I don’t think Brock can lead them to the Super bowl. That is why they went out and picked up Josh Johnson. Even though Brock stepped in and played well there still not 100% sure he can help them reach their goals this season.

Philly is Special: Philly continues to steamroll their opponents as they are talented on both sides of the ball. They’re pretty much a lock for the #1 seed and have a date with the Giants on Sunday.

Deshaun’s Return: The big headline this week was the return of Deshaun Watson. As expected he struggled, and had rust in his first start back in over 700 days. If it wasn’t for his defense this would of been a loss for the lowly Browns.

Cowboys Riding: Cowboys just like the Eagles continue to win, which starts with their Micah Parsons’s lead defense. They have found the formula for success which is play good defense and run the ball with the two headed monster of Pollard and Elliot.

Brady Magic: Brady is still Brady at 45 years old. He set the record for his 44th 4th quarter comeback. For most of the game against the Saints, he was inept, but when it counted he came through. This win was huge for Tampa Bay as they stay atop the NFC South.

Raiders Hot: Raiders led by Derek Carr won their 3rd straight game. The connection between Carr and Davante Adams is live and real. And it’s not just their offense that’s clicking, their defense has stepped up led by Maxx Crosby.

The post What We Learned in Week 13 appeared first on Pro Football Mania.

By: Jeremy Trottier

Coming into this article idea, frankly, I thought there was absolutely no viable way Ezekiel Elliott is remotely a Hall of Fame caliber player, as many of you may be thinking at this moment.  After delving into some more research on the topic, I am not 100% convinced he will make it, but frankly, there are a few players who compare exceptionally well to Zeke who made the Hall of Fame.  In this article, I will be comparing him to two Hall of Fame players who had relatively similar careers to this point in time, as well as gauging his legacy on the sport to determine if he is someone who should be considered for enshrinement. 

Ezekiel Elliott Vs. Currently Enshrined Players

The first thing I did when researching for this article is looked at every current Hall of Fame running back who was enshrined and taking into account their statistical success in comparison to Zeke.  As surprising as this may be, Zeke not only compares exceptionally well to one of these players but also seemingly surpasses another in many metrics across the board. 

The first player he compares well to is Hall of Fame Cleveland Browns running back Leroy Kelly, who played from 1964-1973. In his 10-season career, he had 7,274 rushing yards (217 less than Zeke as of the writing of this on 9/24), 74 touchdowns (18 more than Zeke), 4.2 yards per carry (0.3 less than Zeke average), 2,281 receiving yards (44 more than Zeke), and 13 receiving touchdowns (1 more than Zeke).  They compare almost identically except for rushing touchdowns, which Zeke would likely surpass in 3 more seasons if he is to play that much longer.  For those saying that seasons were shorter in this era, while that is true, Leroy played in 46 more games (20 more starts) over the course of his career, and rushed 52 more attempts in his career.  While they are relatively far apart in games played and started, the rushing attempts are very close as of right now, which shows efficiency per run as well as how productive Zeke has been in his 90 games to date.  Kelly did have 3 more pro-bowl appearances than Elliott, as well as 2 more first-team all-pro appearances. 

The other player worth mentioning in this topic would be Hall of Fame Denver Broncos Running back Floyd Little, who played from 1967-1975.  During this span of 9 seasons, he would play 117 games (27 more than Zeke), start in 105 (15 more than Zeke), have 1,641 rushing attempts (34 more than Zeke), had 6,323 rushing yards (1,168 less than Zeke), 43 rushing touchdowns (13 less than Zeke), 3.9 yards per carry (0.6 less per carry), 2,418 receiving yards (181 more than Zeke), and 9 receiving touchdowns (3 less than Zeke).  Floyd had 2 more pro-bowl appearances in his career than Elliott, and the same amount of first-team all-pro team appearances.  Ezekiel has the upper hand in nearly every major statistic compared to Little aside from receiving yards, which he could surpass this or next season.  Both of these players did play in an era where defense was significantly more dominant though however, which is worth noting, however backs were utilized at a higher level as well so it evens out to an extent. 

Does Zeke deserve to be in the HOF?

The answer for now, despite all this, is no.  While Elliott has performed at the level of other HOF backs so far, he needs to play out at least 3 more seasons and have a pretty decent level of production.  The main reason is legacy, a Super Bowl would go a long way for his resume, or a few more pro-bowl appearances.  Statistics do not carry all of the weight in the world, legacy takes about half of the weight for Hall of Fame inductions.  Zeke does not have a ton of legacy under his belt aside from a phenomenal rookie year. 

I would say breaking into the top 30-35 backs in terms of rushing yards would put him on a good track, which would be Marshawn Lynch (30^th all-time ”“ 10,413 rushing yards).  To put that into perspective, that is 2,922 yards, or almost 1,000 a season if he only plays 3 more years.  Is this attainable?  Absolutely.  Breaking the 10,000 yards mark, getting his touchdown numbers up a bit more, and continuing on the track to at least some deep playoff appearances would put him in HOF talks.  For now, he is a good quality player, but if he retired today, he would not be inducted. 

The post Is Ezekiel Elliott a future Hall of Famer? appeared first on Pro Football Mania.

By: Adam Hulse

There was much concern about Ezekiel Elliot heading into the 2021 NFL season. He was coming off his worst year ever in 2020, setting new career lows in many different categories. His 979 rushing yards, four yards per carry, six rushing touchdowns, eight total touchdowns, and 6.5 yards per reception were all new career lows for Elliot. He did set one new career high last year, but unfortunately it was in a negative category, losing five total fumbles. That’s the same amount of turnovers that he had in the rest of his entire career combined.

2020 Struggles

It was a rough 2020 campaign for Elliot, but there were reasons why some of it could be somewhat understandable. With Dak Prescott being injured in week five and missing the rest of the season, defenses were stacking the box against the run without the threat of a real passing game. In addition, the Cowboys suffered a ton of injuries to their offensive line last year as well, including to their top two blockers in Tyron Smith and Zack Martin.

All of the injuries to key players in the Cowboys offense may have made Elliot feel extra pressure to perform last season. He may have been trying to to force things a bit too much, would could possibly explain the fumbles. Playing with a backup quarterback and loaded defensive box for the majority of the season can in a way explain why his production averages fell off. Regardless, it was clearly the worst season of his career by far and the concern about him no longer being the same dominant force that he used to be was justified, especially considering the short life span of running backs in the NFL.

2021 Campaign

Elliot entered the 2021 NFL season determined to prove that 2020 was a fluke and that he still has plenty left in the tank. Week one was an unimpressive performance, touching the ball 13 times and only producing 39 total yards against one of the best rushing defenses in the NFL, the Tampa Bay Bucs. He improved in week two against the LA Chargers, getting 18 touches for 97 yards and a touchdown. His big breakout was in week three against the division rival Philadelphia Eagles on Monday Night Football, producing 116 total yards and two touchdowns on 20 touches.

It was a much needed dominant performance by Elliot on a big stage. He helped the Cowboys demolish the Eagles in a premium game. This performance should provide him with a huge confidence boost moving forward. Additionally, the emergence of Tony Pollard should help keep Elliot more fresh. He can now receive a few less touches so he will have an opportunity for a quality over quantity situation. Pollard has been explosive as the second back in Dallas this year, turning his 35 touches into 248 total yards and a touchdown. His contributions will take some of the burden off of Elliot while keeping him at full strength.

The post RB Ezekiel Elliot is not done yet appeared first on Pro Football Mania.

By Jesse Moeller via JMoeller05

Today is the day that football is officially back! We have our first matchup of the regular season between the Buccaneers and Cowboys. This week, I would like to dive into the weekly game theory in fantasy football, particularly redraft leagues.

What kicked off this idea in my head was seeing numerous individuals questioning whether or not to start Ezekiel Elliot this week against Tampa Bay after Dallas lost All-Pro guard Zach Martin for the week. Of course, the worry is legitimate, as losing a player of Martin’s caliber will affect Elliot this week. But, with the volume Elliot is set to receive, do you seriously consider benching Elliot?

In the long and short of it, the answer is no, and you do not bench him on 99% of fantasy teams. Now, let me tell you the game that forever changed how I view sit/start options. It was week 9 of the 2019 season, and the undefeated New England Patriots were facing the 5-2 Baltimore Ravens. The Patriots’ defense was on a record-setting pace in the first half of the year. They were averaging 22.62 fantasy points per game. To give you a perspective on how great this was, using FantasyPros, I was able to get back to the 2012 season. The most fantasy points a defense has scored in a season was 236 points. So the eight-game pace the Patriots were on would have scored 362 fantasy points over a year. That’s a CMC or Kelce type of advantage over your opponents.

I struggled all week deciding what to do with Lamar, as I was terrified the Patriots defense would put the clamps on him. I picked up Derek Carr as my insurance policy as the Raiders were facing the woeful Detroit Lions that week. That Sunday morning, I began to panic, and I did the unthinkable. I benched Lamar for Derek Carr as I convinced myself it was a perfect matchup for Carr and a brutal one for Lamar. Then I sat back and watched as Lamar shredded the Patriots on national television for 28+ fantasy points. On the other hand, Carr had a decent game, but it cost me in the matchup as I lost by four points that week. I knew in the first quarter that I had made a horrible mistake and decided to torture myself by watching the entire game. From that moment on, I decided that I would start my stud players almost exclusively.

Have you ever noticed that you have an uneasy feeling in your stomach whenever you bench an elite fantasy player? That is your body’s way of telling you that you made a wrong decision. So let me dive into this topic a bit and explain why you should listen to your body when it talks to you. When I referenced benching Zeke, and why I thought it was a bad idea, it comes down to who you have on your roster that you are comfortably replacing him with? Does that running back have an upside as high as Zeke? If you can make a legitimate case that the running back does, I am open to it, but why would you bench Elliot unless you have a Derrick Henry and Aaron Jones in your backfile along with Elliot?

Yards Per Fantasy had a great piece on why volume is King for running backs, and I agree with the conclusion they arrived at and why volume is what you want. Hence, How you find a Superstar fantasy running back is when you add efficiency to volume. Elliot is a volume play in week one as the Buccaneers will likely not give up many yards on the ground, being the only NFL to allow less than 1000 rushing yards last year. If Elliot is efficient this week, he will quickly become a top-five running back in week one. I guarantee the player you benching Zeke for does not have that in their range of outcomes.

As managers, we tend to overthink situations and matchups, as we love to do. We believe that we tend to know more than we do. Do not fall victim to galaxy brain thoughts with your team this week. If you are debating benching Zeke for Raheem Mostert, Gus Edwards, or Chase Edmonds in week one, you have played yourself. These players all have issues and are not as safe as we believe, even with the plus matchups boosting them up in week one.

When dealing with sit-start decisions, I have a few thoughts I run through to help clarify the situation. First, I consider the players’ role, the volume they will receive, and the upside if that player hits maximum expectations. Lastly, I examine the matchup to be more of a tiebreaker if I cannot decide between the two options. Following these guidelines has given me a more significant hit rate in my sit-start decisions from that regretful decision to bench Lamar decision back in 2019.

Given those guidelines, what are you doing with Zeke in your lineup? Are you even contemplating benching him? He feels exceptionally safe to me when you look at sit-start decisions through a different prism. If I were to boil this down to a simple “Start Your Studs” policy across the board, why that is important is upside wins you championships, and the stud players you drafted early were drafted early for that reason. They do what few other players can do for your team on a weekly and season-long basis. We can all get too cute from time to time, as we read too much into a situation to tell ourselves a story that does not exist. When all along, it would have made more sense to start the stud player instead of worrying about a problem that never existed in the first place.

I thank you for reading my latest piece. If you do not want to take my words for it, I present to you the comments of Ian Hartitz on the matter of starting the best players on your team.

The post Fantasy Football: Start Your Studs appeared first on Pro Football Mania.

By: Trenton Roberts (Twitter: @TRobertsNFL)

Background:

As the NFL offseason slowly moves along, there is increasingly less to talk about as we wait for the season to roll around. With more time on our hands, writers and journalists are looking for anything to write about. That was where the idea for this series arose from.

In the NFL today, there are many young talents who seem to already be heading towards acquiring a bust in Canton. Reaching the NFL Hall-of-Fame is one of the most prestigious honors any player can hope to achieve in their careers and is what motivate many players to improve and play at the highest level. In this series, we will discuss how some of these players have already left their marks and what they can do to ensure their eventual enshrinement.

Over the next ten weeks, we will make our way through twenty total players in the NFL today under the age of 28 who are well on their ways to the Hall. Twice a week, a new name will be discussed and debated in order to see where they stand and what they can do in their “Quest for Canton”.

Article:

In 2016, the Cowboy’s started a three-year run of a team drafting a running back with a top five pick in the NFL draft, selecting Ohio State star Ezekiel Elliot with the 4^th overall selection of the class. The Jacksonville Jaguars followed suit the next season, taking LSU bruiser Leonard Fournette with the same selection, and In 2018, the Giants finished the trifecta, selecting Penn State superstar Saquon Barkley as the second overall pick. Since then, each back has gone on to have success in their respective careers, with Fournette playing a key role in the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2020-21 title run and Barkley dominating when healthy, even leading the league in scrimmage yards as a rookie.

What “Zeke” has done through five seasons, however, dwarfs anything the other two have accomplished, as well as the majority of every other first five years a running back has had in league history. In that time, the young Cowboy’s rusher has already led the league in rushing yards twice and led as well in rushing yards per game in each of his first three seasons. 

Through a players first 50 career games, Elliott finishes third in yards from scrimmage since the merger, with his 6,300 trailing just Edgerrin James (6,506) and LaDanian Tomlinson (6,425). He also made an immediate impact in Dallas, totaling 1,631 rushing yards and 15 rushing scores as a rookie and helping propel the Cowboys to the second-best record in the league (13-3) and pairing with fellow rookie, quarterback Dak Prescott, to dominate the league.

Despite a down year in 2020, in which the team lost Prescott early to injury and never recovered, Elliott’s early years remain some of the greatest in history. He ranks in the top 15 in NFL history in both rushing yards and touchdowns through a players first five seasons, with all 14 ahead of him either currently or soon-to-be enshrined in the Hall. Zeke should return back to prior form with a healthy Prescott keeping defenses honest once more in 2021 and continue his run as one of the best backs of this generation.

As it stands, Zeke is already well on his way to Canton, and should join the ranks of the greats soon enough should he continue his amazing career start!

Tune in early next week as we hit the quarter-way mark of the series and break down another legendary running back of this generation: Carolina Panthers superstar Christian McCaffrey.

The post Ezekiel Elliot has proven to be a historical talent at the RB position appeared first on Pro Football Mania.

By: Jeremy Trottier

The Dallas Cowboys are in a pretty good situation right now with franchise QB Dak Prescott returning as well as a huge influx in the draft of defensive talent.  They look to be primed for a playoff run more than likely if Dak can revert to form.  However, one of their moves in the last few years has been questionable, which was paying Ezekiel Elliott so much so quickly.  

In this article, I will be going over a few reasons as to why paying Zeke such a large amount in his extension could be a poor decision, as well as why that is the case.

Previous Large RB Extensions

One of the most notable experiences we have witnessed recently of a RB getting a large extension then dropping off significantly is Todd Gurley.  Gurley went from one of the top backs in the league at the time, arguably the top back, to off the Rams within a few seasons.  At the time they paid the richest running back contract ever seen, which was four years $60 million and $45 million of which being guaranteed.  He now remains unsigned this offseason after his one year deal with the Atlanta Falcons, only three years after the giant extension.

This is not that much of an uncommon occurrence either, here are a few more to prove the point:

• Le’Veon Bell ”“ four years $52.5 million ”“ outcome was off the New York Jets within 3 years of extension
• Devonta Freeman ”“ five years $41.3 million ”“ outcome was off the Atlanta Falcons before end of contract
• David Johnson ”“ three years $39 million ”“ outcome was traded from Arizona Cardinals within two seasons
• Jerick McKinnon ”“ four years $30 million ”“ outcome was multiple underperforming seasons with injuries hampering some of them
• Leonard Fournette ”“ four years $27.2 million ”“ outcome was cut from the team in 2020 and signed elsewhere
• Christian McCaffrey ”“ four years $64.1 million ”“ outcome has been injury riddled seasons with minimal production due to such, unknown future as of now

Not all extensions have been bad, Alvin Kamara performed extremely well in his 2020 campaign after his relatively large extension.  Dalvin Cook has also been exceptionally talented within his own right after his five year extension.  However these previous extensions have been majorly led with negative connotations so far.

There Are A lot of RBs Out There

One of the reasons I believe this contract extension was much too early, rather than lucrative, was because of the amount of running backs on the market is extraordinary, and they keep coming in with every draft.  Paying Zeke for four years, or any running back for that matter, can lead to some major issues if they flop.  Last year Zeke did decent, but had a lot of issues as well with Dak not playing most of the season.

If this trend continues, the Cowboys will be locked into his guaranteed money, and likely will not have the ability to bring in a true replacement due to this constraint.  Having two running backs on relatively middle of the road contracts at once rather than one on a massive one has seemingly worked a few times now.  Tampa Bay had quite a few running backs in the rotation, Ronald Jones, Leonard Fournette, Ke’shawn Vaughn, and LeSean McCoy being the primary four.  Clearly having one running back is not necessarily the winning formula every time.

Now is this to say Zeke did not deserve to get paid?  No.  It is more the duration and extreme guaranteed values for four years that end up coming back around to be an issue.

The post Why the Cowboys are wrong to pay Zeke so much money appeared first on Pro Football Mania.

Kyle Stracher (Twitter: @Darthspoothz)

1. Kareem Hunt

There is no doubt Kareem Hunt is a talented RB and when he plays his fantasy value is very high based on the Browns personnel there isn’t much reason to keep him around.

Hunt signed a 2-year extension with the Browns this season which will keep him in Cleveland until 2022, the problem is that Hunt is the Backup to Nick Chubb. While Hunt finished as the Rb10 in PPR leagues, that is mostly due to the time Chubb missed and the Browns being very run-heavy this year.

With Chubb still being the Browns feature back and Baker Mayfield getting Odell Beckham back after a very solid year, it is unlikely Hunt’s value rises any higher than right now. Even with him getting a decent amount of touches from Chubb’s injury, Hunts value in fantasy came as a receiver, where he hauled in 5 receiving touchdowns in only 38 receptions.

In the four games where Hunt started, he couldn’t even surpass 4 YPC and fell below 10 fantasy points twice. He also got 2 of his 5 receiving touchdowns in those 4 games, meaning that with Chubb healthy his fantasy value plummets. 

2. Ezekiel Elliot

Ezekiel Elliot has proved what he can be as a Running Back. A few years ago, Elliot was on the rise as the best RB in the NFL but after his 2018 campaign, it seems Elliot is on the Decline.

His name holds a lot of value, so his sell price is very high, and with the return of Both Tyron Smith and La’ell Collins for 2021 to bolster the Cowboys O-line, his price rises. Elliot saw an average amount of touches but his inability to provide as a pass catcher and his decline as a rusher makes holding onto him in dynasty leagues not worth what you could get from him.

With Dak Prescott, Elliot averaged over 20 fantasy ppg, but after Dak went down, Elliot was unable to even eclipse 20 points again. The problem with Elliot’s production revolving around Dak Prescott is Prescott’s future in Dallas. Even if the cowboys resign him, after an injury like the one he had, there is no telling whether or not it will be the same Dak Prescott we saw in weeks 1-5.

I would avoid the risk in total and try to avoid baking your RB1s future on his quarterback and O-line and get what you can for the still high-value Elliot holds. 

3. Joe Mixon

Joe Mixon follows a similar suit to Elliot, where his name holds value, but his production and consistency are not there. Mixon fell off hard from 2019, having his YPC drop .5 yards.

Mixon did struggle with injury through 2020, but in his time played he only had one above-average game. Mixon’s production is extremely inconsistent. In 2 of his 6 games in 2020, Mixon was not able to reach 10 points and only ever eclipsed 15 twice.

His singular good game was against Jacksonville where his 3 touchdowns against the league’s third-worst rushing defense skyrocketed his PPG. Mixon still has a high trade price, but with Giovanni Bernard establishing himself as an above-average receiving back, Mixon’s appearances in 3rd down situations, as well as the goal line, could diminish in 2021.

Bernard, who replaced an injured Mixon was able to surpass 20 points in 4 of his 10 games without Mixon, which is much better than the numbers Mixon produced. With the Bengals likely to give Joe Burrow more leeway as a passer in his second year, and Mixon not being a particularly strong receiving back, his future in Dynasty is uncertain. Selling Mixon would be the best bet, as his low amount of games played masked his true production as a fantasy back. 

4. David Johnson

If you have David Johnson in a Dynasty league, he will never return to his old form where he was the best fantasy player in the NFL.

Johnson’s new role in Houston is similar where he does a great deal of damage as a receiver but similar to Mixon, David Johnson struggled staying on the field missing four games in 2020. Johnson was mediocre to start the year, but his value skyrocketed with 3 straight 20+ pt performances to close out the season.

Considering Johnson is going on 30 years old and there are rumors swirling about the Texans trading Deshaun Watson, it is unlikely that Johnson will be the focus of the rebuild. Johnson’s value as a receiver boosts his stock, but not enough to keep him around for what he is really worth. Until week 15, Johnson never surpassed 20ppg, not to mention Johnson has missed games in 3 of his last 4 seasons. Even with a depleted Texans roster, Johnson was not able to put up strong numbers.

The Texans ended 2020 with the second-lowest rushing yards in the NFL, so expect the team to bring in a back in free agency or in the draft to bolster their run game. With Johnson clearly not at the level he was at in his time with Arizona, it is likely his usage drops in 2021 and beyond, so trading him while he has any value is the smartest decision. 

5. Melvin Gordon

Similar to Leveon Bell, Melvin Gordon’s contract holdout did not do him justice. Gordon was by no means the same player he was a few years ago. Gordon finished as the RB14 in PPR leagues even while missing a game. But his future as a back is unknown, Gordon did not stand out in Denver and was overvalued to start the season.

Considering Denver also has Phillip Lindsay, having an RB who splits touches is never ideal. With Gordon underperforming as a rusher this year, Lindsay could end up seeing the ball more than Gordon in 2021, dropping Gordon’s value immensely. Gordon was very inconsistent the entire season and next year expect worse.

In his 15 games, Gordon went over 20 points 3 times but wasn’t able to go over 10 points 5 different weeks. The reason for that is Gordon’s reduced usage in the passing game. Gordon despite playing 15 games only caught 32 passes and in 3 games had 0 receptions.

Broncos running backs only caught 52 passes all year which is on the bottom end of the NFL. With no coaching changes in sight, the game plan will likely be similar in 2021. And considering Phillip Lindsay missed 5 games in 2020, Gordon’s workload is likely to drop.

The post Dynasty: 5 RBs to Sell appeared first on Pro Football Mania.