Antonio Brown

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

ADP: 111.3, WR44

I get that Antonio Brown is no longer the sexiest fantasy football pick. However, all the guy does is produce when on the field. Yes, he’s 32 years old and, yes, he recently had questions about his health that caused a slight delay in the Bucs re-signing him, but the season is a long way out and you are too low on the former #1 overall fantasy stud.

First, a history lesson: from 2013 to 2017, Brown finished as either the #1 or #2 wideout in all of fantasy. In 2018, he finished #5. 2019 was lost thanks to a hot air balloon, cryo-feet and a league suspension, but 2020, on a per-game basis, was again excellent.

Last season, AB finished 2^nd in all of football in Player Profiler’s Hog Rate. That means on a per snap basis, when he was on the field and the Bucs ran a pass, he was targeted more than nearly any other receiver and tied with Davante Adams in the metric. Additionally, AB garnered a 19.9% target share. Though close, that’s more than teammates Chris Godwin and Mike Evans.

Also, Brady loves the guy. And why wouldn’t he? AB is always open”¦ still. The dude hasn’t lost much, he’s entrenched as a starting wideout for this squad and he’s getting a fifth of Brady’s targets when he’s on the field.

AB is old to be sure, and I have my suspicions about his mental health since Vontez Burfict rang his bell (a supreme understatement) back in 2016. Has AB ever been the same? Probably not. Has his play suffered because of it. Not at all.

AB is currently going off the board as a backend WR3 who could finish as a mid-WR2. Go get him in your drafts in all formats.

John Brown

Las Vegas Raiders

ADP: 158.1, WR73

This one is baffling to me. I’m grabbing John Brown everywhere because he is falling way too far down redraft draft boards this year. Brown is learning a new offense, needs to develop rapport with his new QB and needs to carve out a role in a mid-level passing attack that already features star tight end Darren Waller. Still, we’ve seen the likes of Nelson Agholor thrive on the outside just last season”¦ and Brown is a better receiver.

Last year was tough for Brown. He only appeared in nine games and he was limited by injury in two of them. His target average also dropped from 25.7% in 2019 (10^th in the league) to 16.8% in 2020 (56^th). It’s no secret that this was due to the addition of alpha wide receiver Stefon Diggs and the increased looks given to Cole Beasley underneath, though both rates were probably because Brown couldn’t stay on the field.

If there’s a receiver you may think of as injury prone, it could be Brown. In 2016, he was diagnosed with the sickle-cell trait. Some have attempted to tie this to Brown and injury, but that’s just not been the case. In fact, Brown has played in at least 15 of 16 games in all but two of his seven years in the league.

So if he’s not an injury concern and his targets have only been undermined by a top 5 WR in the league, why is he going so low in drafts? I don’t see fellow wideouts Henry Ruggs, Bryan Edwards or Hunter Renfrow as much of a threat to his projected volume, though the youngsters could all get more work than last year.

For a wideout who could be his team’s #2 passing game option and, at worst, #3, I’m scooping up the speedy Brown with a late round pick and assuming he’ll thrive in a Nelson Agholor-esque role.

Breshad Perriman

Detroit Lions

ADP: 178, WR89

His last name isn’t Brown, and maybe Amon-Ra is the Detroit Lions #1 target from the jump, but Breshad Perriman’s ADP is criminally low in the early going. While teammate Amon-Ra St. Brown is the trendy pick this season, Perriman is better bet to earn the #1 target share in a wide-open competition for looks in 2021.

The Lions have a new coaching staff, a new starting QB and a bunch of new pieces in the wide receivers’ room, but all of this newness means the opportunity is there for someone to step up.

And why not Perriman? Last year, with Adam Gase calling the shots and Sam Darnold chucking the rock, Perriman flopped. His WR78 finish in PPR leagues came in just 12 games on just 60 targets. But, with only last year’s breakout TE TJ Hockenson locked in for volume, Perriman could easily see his target total double from a year ago. Here’s how:

First, the Lions are projected to lose, a lot. A mediocre defensive unit under a new regime with a tough schedule, all is in place for Jared Goff to be forced into slinging it all over the yard. Second, Perriman is a 4.3 speedster who can stretch the field as we saw at the end of 2019 when he was forced into action in Tampa. Over the final 5 games of the season that year, Perriman averaged 7.4 targets, over 101.2 yards and 1 TD per game. That’s the receiver the Jets got last year, though we all know about the Adam Gase production dip for all but slot receivers by now. I’m not a Goff truther by any means, but a Gased Darnold isn’t even in the same stratosphere as Goff and the Detroit line is actually decent, grading out as Pro Football Focus’s 13^th best unit from a season ago and adding generational prospect Penei Sewell at sixth overall in this year’s draft.

Perriman was a product of his poor situation in 2019, after having seemingly put it all together a year ago. If he’s given the chance and the targets, Perriman should far exceed his ADP and you can steal him in the last round of drafts.  

Snag one or more of these WRs in your 2021 PPR drafts, and you’ll sleep like a baby… a baby whose fantasy lineups are strong from top to bottom.

*all ADP data used in this article sourced from: https://fantasydata.com/nfl/fantasy-football-ppr-adp-rankings/rb

The post Fantasy: 3 WRs you are sleeping on in 2021 appeared first on Pro Football Mania.

By: Jeremy Shulman

AJ Dillon

RB, Green Bay Packers

Current ADP: 63.6, RB28

I am shouting this one from the rooftops early this offseason. Dillon will appear everywhere in my writeups for the foreseeable future, because chances are you are too low on the second-year back.

Though Dillon’s claim to thigh supremacy in the league has been challenged recently by the Falcon’s Mike Davis thanks to Atlanta’s OTA Twitter posts, he’s still the reigning champion thanks to this:

Dillon has fully embraced his strengths, and it seems his team has, too.

Aside from inking starting running back Aaron Jones to a new, lucrative deal, the Green Bay Packers have seemed content to roll with Dillon as their RB2 in 2021. They began the offseason by letting former, productive backup Jamaal Williams walk in free agency, and the have added little competition in the backfield to-date. It’s doubtful anyone left on the wire can meaningfully compete with the Boston College product, and seventh-round draft pick Kylin Hill is likely just a special teams add.

As Green Bay’s RB2, Dillon projects to see somewhere in the neighborhood of 140 attempts on the ground and even a couple shots through the air. Though not a prolific pass catcher, he should be used to spell Jones and keep him fresh during the season on early downs and could be incorporated in drive rotations much like Dallas’ Tony Pollard has been utilized in the past. If quarterback Aaron Rodgers sticks around, this offense is elite and should push for another 13-win season, making mop up duty routine. If Rodgers refuses to reunite with the team, a reliance on the running game is probable and Dillon wins again.

For 2021, Dillon is an elite backup option who should be taken before almost all others who won’t receive a full workload. His ADP isn’t exactly low, but when you’re looking at Pollard, Kenyan Drake and Ronald Jones, take Dillon first and enjoy the production with extreme upside if Jones goes down.

Gus Edwards

Travis Etienne

RB, Jacksonville Jaguars

Current ADP: 117.4, RB49

With both Dillon and Edwards, I’m still expecting their teams’ RB1s to have great seasons. For Travis Etienne, however, I’m expecting he takes the reins as the Jaguars’ lead back in short order.

Etienne currently sits in a position to smash his ADP in 2021 thanks to a new coach familiar with his work and the top QB in the class pushing to get his college teammate on his new pro squad. The rookie back is a first round selection in Urban Meyer’s first season. That alone displays a supreme investment in the Clemson product, and it may hint at Meyer’s feelings about last year’s breakout, UDFA James Robinson.

We love Robinson in the fantasy community. He literally came out of nowhere to post top-10 numbers at the position. Forced into action after the Jags jettisoned Leonard Fournette and with backs ahead of him contracting COVID, Robinson took hold of the job over the summer and never let it go. However, Ryquell Armstead and Devine Ozigbo weren’t exactly elite competition, allowing Robinson to record the #1 opportunity share for all backs in the NFL in 2020 according to Player Profiler. And the Jags didn’t exactly have any expectations for their season, evidenced by their #1 overall pick in the draft this year.

Enter Meyer, Lawrence and, now, Etienne, who come with high expectations to turn this team around in short order. With the 25^th overall selection, Etienne should see a significant split in the backfield immediately as Robinson is phased out of the workhorse role. Etienne also profiles as the better receiving back, even working as a receiver during rookie minicamp, giving more credence to the idea that an initial third down role, and maybe some positional versatility, is in his future.

With the rapport Lawrence and Etienne have already developed in their three years together at Clemson, with the significant draft capital investment this new regime has bestowed upon him and with the fact that Robinson carries no contract concerns given his UDFA status last season, Etienne will take over this backfield sooner rather than later. Don’t miss out at his current low price, especially in PPR leagues.

Grab any or all of these RBs in your 2021 drafts and you’ll finally be able to rest easy.

*all ADP data used in this article sourced from: https://fantasydata.com/nfl/fantasy-football-ppr-adp-rankings/rb

The post Fantasy: 3 RBs You’re Sleeping on in 2021 appeared first on Pro Football Mania.

By: Jesse Moeller

This article is for 3 WRs from the legendary 2019 class that have yet to fully breakout. What is considered a breakout? A WR breakout is when they finish in the top 24 in points end of the year. You are considered to have broken out. This removes the names of A.J. Brown, D.K. Metcalf, Terry McLaurin, Diontae Johnson

The incoming rookie class is bringing in some heavy hitters to the NFL in 2021. Ja’Marr Chase, DeVonta Smith, Rashod Bateman, Jaylen Waddle, Rondale Moore are just a few incoming rookies that will knock these veterans WR down the dynasty rankings. Let’s break down the 3 third year WR you should be investing in.

Deebo Samuel

AKA the YAC Gawd!

No one in the NFL is better in YAC (Yards after the Catch) than Deebo Samuel. He has prototypical running back size at 5’11 214 lbs, which shows when he is on the field. Deebo is truly a unicorn in the NFL and the 49ers deploy him as such. No receiver in the NFL is asked to consistently do what Deebo does.

Deebo ended the season with 33 receptions for 391 yards on 44 targets in 7 games this year. Extrapolated for a full season, we would be looking at 75 receptions for 893 yards on 100 targets. A much more impressive end of year total. This next statistic blew my mind. Deebo’s Yards before catch on the entire season were -7! How did he end up with 391 total yards you ask? YAC baby! Breaking it down, Deebo averaged 12.06 Yards After each reception. If Deebo played 16 games, he would’ve led the league with 893 Yards After the Catch.

Deebo’s role in the 49ers’ offense is 100% secure. He only had 116 Air Yards for the entire season, while Brandon Aiyuk had 876 Air Yards this year. That shows the different role each receiver has in the offense going forward. Deebo only had 2 deep target during the year, Deebo was 16th in the league with 0.49 fantasy points per route run. When Deebo touches the ball, good things happen for the 49ers.

Deebo’s value is discounted for two reasons in dynasty. Injury concerns, and being attached to a run-first offense. Take advantage of the discount and pay a 2021 late 1st/early 2nd round pick to acquire a player who is only 25 years old.

If you still are unsure about Deebo, here is a PFF stat for you.

Marquise “Hollywood” Brown

Let us dive into what makes Hollywood a player to target in dynasty. His overall numbers were disappointing compared to expectations coming into the year. He finished with 58 receptions for 769 yards on 100 targets. While these numbers may not be anything to get excited about, the underlying numbers certainly are. Brown had 100% route participation in 2020. Meaning he was on the field for every single Ravens pass play, which was #1 in the league. A target share of 25.2%, good for the 12th in the league. Hollywood had a RedZone target share of 18.0% highly impressive for a WR his size. Air yards share of 37.2% was #8 in the league.

Doing all this with Lamar Jackson having a worse season across the board. Lamar’s Passing Yards, Attempts, completion %, TD’s, Yards Per Attempt, Yards Per Completion all went down in 2020. Hollywood was one of two players to receive over 50 targets this year. The other was Mark Andrews, who had 88. The next highest was Willie Snead with 48.

Baltimore desperately needs another receiving option to take the pressure off of Hollywood. Bringing in one of the big name free agent Wide Receivers like Allen Robinson, Chris Godwin, Kenny Golladay, or a Rashad Bateman, Ja’Marr Chase type rookie would do wonders to this offense. Truly allowing Hollywood to thrive as the big play weapon to take the top off of the defense. At the moment Hollywood is worth approximately an early-mid 2021 2nd round pick in dynasty. A price I would happily pay to acquire him in dynasty.

Parris Campbell

Lastly, we get to a personal favorite of mine. You will not be able to find someone as talented as Campbell for the price in dynasty. It is all related to injury concerns with Campbell, as he has missed 71.8% of games the last 2 seasons. I’ve pinned a thread from one of the best dynasty accounts in the business @RayGQue who wrote a thread on Campbell coming out of Ohio State.

In the one game he played in 2020 before the MCL injury wiped out his season, Parris had 6 receptions for 71 yards on 9 targets. He was a focal point of the passing attack coming off of an injury-plagued 2019 rookie season. Campbell is one of the many young weapons on the Colts going into 2021. His measurables speak for themself as Campbell has all the tools to be an explosive playmaker in the league.

His closest comp according to Player Profiler is Santana Moss. It checks out, as Campbell has a speed score, burst score, and 40 yard dash time above the 97th percentile. For those of you not familiar with Santana Moss, go look up his highlights on Youtube. Moss is a forgotten big-play threat who had over 10,000 receiving yards in his career, along with 7 seasons of 100+ targets. Moss gives you an idea of the type of player Campbell can be.

Campbell is currently worth an early-mid 3rd round rookie pick in dynasty. A price I would pay every time if Campbell stays healthy will be worth much more.

I hope you enjoyed this article. I’m available to discuss dynasty football on twitter @JMoeller05 anytime

The post 3 Third Year WRs Set to Breakout in 2021 appeared first on Pro Football Mania.