By Jesse Moeller (Twitter: @JMoeller05)

Have you ever heard the phrase “Shooting for the Stars”? This phrase perfectly describes fantasy football to me. Upside wins you championships, as teams with Alvin Kamara in 2020 or Christian McCaffery in 2019 can attest. No one remembers the RB4 performance from LeVeon Bell in 2016. What they do remember is David Johnson breaking fantasy during that season. Hitting on a player who becomes the RB1 in fantasy football gives you a massive advantage over the competition.

It is the gold standard all fantasy managers end up be chasing. Settling for the floor is never a winning strategy, as that hurts your team more than it helps. Target players with paths to notable roles in opportunity shares, target shares, and touchdowns. Touchdowns are the most fickle of the three but can boost a player into contention. Since 2016 no RB1 has less than 64 receptions or 15 touchdowns. That is the baseline for any player to reach the RB1 status. If you cannot reasonably project a player to hit those thresholds, you will have to reevaluate how you feel about that player.

 Derrick Henry RB3

What both tweets reference is an asymmetrical upside that only specific players possess in this game. I am here to explain why Henry is not one of those players.

Henry is one of the best running backs in football, his skillset will never allow him to reach the RB1 of fantasy, and that’s ok. Drafting Henry at pick three is playing scared, and scared money does not make money. Fade Henry at cost, and invest in other players at the same range. Let someone else grab Henry earlier than you.

Joe Mixon RB13

That is some extreme inefficiency from Mixon last year.

Another season and the Mixon hype train is taking off. Boosting him top a borderline top 12 running back. It has propelled him into talk of being “The Best Value.” As an early second-round pick where people talk themselves into an upside with Mixon that does not exist. Mixon has been an inefficient volume play so far in his career. Why is Mixon going ahead of names such as C.E.H., Swift, Dobbins, Sanders, and Carson? Are you able to project Mixon for increased efficiency when last year he was among his most inefficient in the NFL with a rookie Joey Burrow as his quarterback? Or are you alright with boom busts weeks for Mixon that will undoubtedly drive you crazy as a manager?

What is working in Mixon’s favor? Of course, that would be the volume, as he will once again receive most of the rushing work for Cincinnati. It becomes fascinating if you can project Mixon for an increased role in the passing game, along with his efficiency moving in the right direction. In 2020 Mixon faced only 6.5 defenders in the box, and the seventh-best light front carries rate, and somehow his fantasy points per opportunity finished as .64, ranking 108th in the NFL last year.

The Bengals invested a first-round pick in superstar prospect Ja’Marr Chase and now have three bonafide wide receivers who will control the target distribution in Cincinnati this season. Regrettably, leaning on Mixon in favor of those three wide receivers is a lousy process by the coaching staff. So let someone else suffer through the roller coaster ride that is Joe Mixon in 2021.

Kareem Hunt RB24

Kareem Hunt is genuinely an expensive backup in Cleveland who had an unsustainably high touchdown rate in 2020. Regression is coming for the Browns 1B to Chubb’s 1A. Last year it was a consensus thought that Hunt was the backup to own in the NFL. If Chubb were to suffer an injury, Hunt would become the league winner. This exact scenario played out, and Hunt was no better than he was with Chubb on the field. So, what is the upside when selecting Hunt?

Hunt reminds fantasy players of the rookie who broke out in Kansas City to finish as the RB5 back in 2017. Unfortunately, he is not that player anymore, and you are better letting someone else chase the upside that does not exist for him for the next two seasons, as Hunt is tied to Cleveland as Chubb’s backup until 2023. Hunt played every game in 2020 and only managed 38 receptions, so without the receiving upside for Hunt, what value to your team does he present?

At his price, take a shot on a player that presents the upside you are looking for in one of Travis Etienne, Chase Edmonds, Javonte Williams, or Miles Gaskin.

Remember that upside is king in fantasy. Going after floor players because “they are safe” hurts your teams instead of winning you championships, which is the goal we all have when we start playing fantasy football. At a certain point, all of the players I listed do become a value in drafts. However, at the current ADP they maintain, they are a fade for me. As I do not hate players, I’m not too fond of overinflated ADPs.

The post Fantasy Football: 3 RBs to avoid appeared first on Pro Football Mania.

By: Andy Will

In this piece we will look into five running back who could be overvalued going into the 2021 season. This may be due to current ranking but could also be down to situation.

Cam Akers

2020

Cam Akers is an interesting one. He has the talent and will likely pick up much of the outgoing Malcolm Brown’s touches to add to the 156 he had to himself in 2020. My issue with him at the moment is his overall ranking at consensus number 10. 

Even though Brown has moved on, Akers will still have Darrell Henderson to deal with, who will likely take some work away. In 2020, Henderson had 138 carries and 24 targets. The rush attempts may come down if the Rams look to give Akers more work, but will that be enough to allow him to cement a top 10 running back? 

Akers has the potential upside of a top 10 back, but if Henderson does take work away from him, it may be too much to pay for the second-year running back.

MIles Sanders

2020

Here is another player who has all the tools to finish as a number one fantasy running back. Sanders has yet to finish as a ”˜one’ in his young career after finishing as a high-end RB 2 in 2019 and had a slight drop in 2020 to the lower end of the RB 2 level. 

The Eagles go into the season with a change at quarterback, and it looks as though it will be Jalen Hurts taking over after Carson Wentz’s exit, plus they traded back from 6 in the draft. Will the change of quarterback be a positive one for the team? The answer is yet to be determined, but during the last few weeks of the season, it is clear that Hurts is not afraid to run the ball himself. 

Hurts may take work away from Sanders, Boston Scott was also re-signed, as was Jordan Howard. I can not see Howard taking much work away from Sanders, however, there will be the possibility of him taking some goal-line work away from Sanders.

Sanders should finish as a solid option at the running back position once again. Will this be the year he breaks into the RB 1 level? I’m not so sure.

Josh Jacobs

2020

Josh Jacobs finished as the overall RB 8 in 2020 while leading the backfield for the LA Raiders. He finished with 180 more carries than backup Devontae Booker and 26 more catches. Booker has moved on and joined the Giants. Whether Booker left or stayed it would still mean Jacobs would more or less have the backfield to himself. This was until Kenyan Drake moved from Arizona. 

Drake comes into LA following a lead role with the Cardinals, which was his only season where he has carried the ball more than 200 times (239 total). In his previous years with the Dolphins, he had consistent totals of 133 and 120 before moving to the Cardinals in 2019, where he had a combined total of 170 between the two teams. 

The addition of Drake makes the backfield a bit too murky for me. I still think Jacobs will be the lead for the Raiders, but Drake could take some of the receiving work and a consistent number of carries away each game.

D’Andre Swift

2020

Here is another player I like very much. My issue here, however, is the team he plays for, the players the Lions have lost and the introduction of Jamaal Williams.

D’Andre Swift had a decent rookie season where he would gain invaluable information and experience from playing and training with Adrian Peterson. Peterson is a free agent currently, which looked as if the backfield would be Swift’s. However, the addition of Jamaal Williams is not ideal for Swift owners in fantasy. Williams has received 100 plus rushes in every season he has been in the league, as well as being targetted between 34-45 times. Swift should be the lead in this backfield, however, Williams will get his touches.

The Lions have moved on from Stafford, with Goff travelling from Rams in a blockbuster trade during the early part of the off-season. Kenny Golladay, Marvin Jones and Danny Amendola have left, with Tyrell Williams and Breshad Perriman being added to replace them. These two additions go into a very depleted receiving group. A lot of pressure will be placed upon Hockenson and the running backs to carry the team. This should provide Swift with many opportunities, however, how good will these opportunities be against stacked boxes which would force Goff to throw? 

As I stated, I like Swift, Perhaps as my second running back. I would feel a little uneasy with selecting him as my top fantasy RB option. 

Damien Harris

2020

When I was looking through various rankings going into the 2021 season, I was surprised to see Harris as high as 25 on consensus rankings. If that level holds, I can’t see myself grabbing many Damien Harris shares. The New England backfield has long been one to avoid in fantasy which is unlikely to change during the 2021 season. 

The backfield will still be a crowded one with James White and Sony Michel ready to take work away from Harris, As well as the fellow RBs he will share with he will likely have Cam Newton to contend with, starting at quarterback (at least at first, after the Patriots landed Mac Jones in the first round) who led the Patriots in touchdowns, scoring 13 total touchdowns, which included 12 rushing scores. 

Rex Burkhead is still a free agent and this would clear a little room and some backfield touches if he does not return to New England. Although Burkhead had around half of Harris’ rush attempts, he did finish with 92 total touches. 

Harris has hardly had any receiving work at all during his first 2 seasons in the NFL. As we can see from the above tables, he has only caught 5 passes over this period, limiting his upside, especially in half and full PPR formats.  

The post Fantasy Football: 5 RBs who are overvalued appeared first on Pro Football Mania.