You can easily switch between different scoring systems by using the drop-down on the left. If you would like to download our cheat sheets to Excel, simply click the download button to the right of the date. As with all of our rankings, these will be updated regularly until the start of the 2023-2024 NFL season.

The post Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet for 2023 appeared first on Pro Football Mania.

Mike Gesicki (Patriots-TE) | ADP-169 | TE-21

What happened to Mike Gesicki in 2022? Gesicki all but disappeared from the Miami Dolphins offense and despite playing in all 17 games was only targeted 52 times. He is now with the New England Patriots and hoping the change of scenery will benefit him. Of course, Gesicki will be behind Hunter Henry on the depth chart but that doesn’t mean he should be ignored.

When Gesicki was involved in the offensive gameplan he has shown he can produce. For instance, in week 6 vs the Minnesota Vikings he had 6 receptions for 69 yards and 2 touchdowns. The 21.9 fantasy points propelled Gesicki to the #1 tight end for that week. I expect the Patriots to give Gesicki more opportunities in their passing game as they love to utilize 2 tight end sets. Look for him to be targeted often in the red zone and expect a bounce back year in 2023.

Michael Mayer (Raiders-TE) | ADP-171 | TE-23

The Las Vegas Raiders decided to part ways with Darren Waller this past offseason. In his place, they now have three tight ends competing for the starting role. Austin Hooper and O.J. Howard were brought in and the Raiders drafted Michael Mayer in the second round of the 2023 NFL Draft. Despite the competition at the tight end spot, I expect Mayer will be the starter in week 1.

Mayer was a star for Notre Dame in his final 2 seasons. He totaled 1,649 receiving yards and 16 touchdowns in that span. At 6’4″, Mayer has the length to be a big-time red zone target in the Raiders offense. Expect Mayer to benefit from Jimmy Garoppolo and his quick, accurate passes. I project Mayer to finish inside the top 20 at the tight end position.

*Cole Turner (Commanders-TE) | ADP-NA | TE-NA

If you’re looking for a deep tight end sleeper look no further than Cole Turner. It’s easy to forget about Turner as he had a quiet rookie season plagued with injuries. As a result, Turner finished with only 2 receptions for the Washington Commanders in 2022. Logan Thomas is presumably the TE1 in Washington but can he be trusted for a full season?

Turner is a massive 6’6″ tight end that can make acrobatic catches. His athleticism was on full display at the Commanders training camp last season before his hamstring injury. Turner is now back fully healthy and already making some noise at OTA’s. The tight end position has always been a key component in an Eric Bieniemy offense. With that said, I see Turner being a better fit than Thomas in this new Commanders offense. If he can stay healthy, Turner could be one of the steals of the year that no one is talking about.

Looking for more fantasy advice? Check out our fantasy football section.

*Deep sleeper

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The current ADP below is for Half PPR scoring.

Elijah Moore (Browns – WR) | ADP 114 | WR48

Elijah Moore was a disappointment last year after a promising rookie season. The former New York Jet only topped double-digit fantasy points once and faded completely from fantasy relevance. Moore showed flashes but failed to produce much of anything. He finished the season with only 1 receiving touchdown and 446 receiving yards.

This past season Moore was traded to the Cleveland Browns giving him a much needed change of scenery. Now with the spotlight off him, I expect Moore to bounce back to his rookie form. Quarterback Deshaun Watson is entering his second year with the Browns and should be more comfortable in this system. With the arrival of Moore, the Browns receiving core has the potential to make some noise. When it’s all said and done, I expect many will be kicking themselves for not taking a chance on Elijah Moore.

Kadarius Toney (Chiefs – WR) | ADP 86 | WR38

Don’t look too much into Kadarius Toney‘s 2022-23 campaign. Between injuries and falling out with the New York Giants, he wasn’t able to offer much value. Toney was traded to Kansas City Chiefs in October for a 3rd and 6th round pick. This was the best case scenario for him as he showcased what he could do during the Super Bowl.

Now fully healthy, Toney is set up for a breakout year with the Chiefs. While Travis Kelce will eat up the majority of the target share I expect Toney will be utilized often in this offense. Toney is a player whose stock is rising pretty quickly as you can see from the chart below. By the start of the season, I could see him getting into the WR30 range in which case he will no longer be undervalued.

Courtland Sutton (Broncos – WR) | ADP 90 | WR41

Like the other wide receivers on this list, Courtland Sutton had a tough 2022-23 season. Don’t blame him though, this was due in large part to an abysmal Denver Broncos offense. Even though the offense struggled, Sutton still managed to finish the year with 829 receiving yards. He also had a decent target share at 20.1%.

I expect the Broncos offense to improve significantly next season. New Head Coach Sean Payton is an offensive mastermind who will find ways to make this offense more explosive. Russel Wilson should also have a bounce-back year and this receiving core will benefit. Jerry Jeudy will always be a factor in taking targets away from Sutton but it won’t matter. Expect Sutton to finish with 1,000+ yards and 5+ touchdowns.

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Alec Pierce (Colts – WR) | ADP – 167.7 | WR67

Alec Pierce had a somewhat quiet 2022. You can say that about the Indianapolis Colts offense overall. Jonathon Taylor was a letdown and Michael Pittman couldn’t build on his breakout 2021 season. You could partially blame that on bad quarterback play and offensive play calling. Matt Ryan and Frank Reich are no longer there and Anthony Richardson looks poised to take over the QB1 role.

If you go back and watch the tape, Pierce showed flashes of talent, especially as a down-the-field threat. He averaged 11.8% air yards per reception and had a 13.5% target share. He was clearly the #2 wide receiver behind Pittman. In steps Richardson and new coach Shane Steichen to try and help revive the stagnant offense. The Colts also drafted Josh Downs and recently signed journey receiver Breshad Perriman. I am not too worried about these two jumping ahead of Pierce as the WR2. Expect some early lumps from Richardson but once the offense revs up Pierce will benefit.

Cordarrelle Patterson (Falcons – RB) | ADP – 209.3 | RB63

If you drafted Cordarrelle Patterson last year you are probably screaming at your screen right now. Before his knee injury, Patterson had two 20+ fantasy point outings including rushing for 141 yards in week 3. He was not able to replicate the early success post-injury. Patterson has become the forgotten man with the arrival of Bijan Robinson and the emergence of Tyler Allgeier.

I am not yet ready to give up on Patterson despite the now crowded backfield. He is a true position flex player which many teams are now coveting. Robinson is still a rookie and the gadget role will be Patterson’s for the foreseeable future.

Curtis Samuel (Commanders – WR) | ADP – 198.3 | WR75

We recently brought up Curtis Samuel in our latest best ball rankings and it’s worth bringing up again. Samuel has a similar type of role to Patterson where you will see him lining up in the backfield a good amount. Last year, he had 92 targets and 68 of those were catchable. Sam Howell although raw will be an upgrade over Taylor Heinicke. On top of better quarterback play, the Commanders now have Eric Bieniemy who will find creative ways to get him the ball.

Tank Bigsby (Jaguars – RB) | ADP – 159.3 | RB51

When the Jacksonville Jaguars drafted Tank Bigsby in the 3rd round of the 2023 NFL Draft it got our attention. Travis Etienne is clearly the lead back and James Robinson was no longer there. The Jaguars brought in Jamycal Hasty and D’Ernest Johnson this offseason and they now have a crowded RB room. I am not worried about those two backs jumping Bigsby for the #2 role. Bigsby will get his chances in the red zone for reasons we pointed out in this article. At this current ADP, he is worth grabbing late in your draft as the upside is too big to ignore.

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IDP scoring can vary greatly from league to league but for these rankings, we used the standard IDP format. Before you look at our top 50 IDP player rankings let’s point out some players to watch.

IDP Players to Watch

Bobby Okereke (New York Giants – LB) | The New York Giants had an impressive free agency period and they topped it off with the signing of Bobby Okereke. The former Indianapolis Colts linebacker finished 2022 with 151 combined tackles including 6 TFLs. Expect similar numbers from Okereke next season along with an uptick in sacks.

Tremaine Edmunds (Chicago Bears – LB) | Another new face in a new place, Tremaine Edmunds was one of the best defensive players available this offseason. He ended up signing on with the Chicago Bears and should immediately elevate their defense. Edmunds had 102 combined tackles, 6 TFLs and 1 sack for the Bills last season in only 13 games. If Edmunds can stay healthy for the Bears, he could end up finishing in the top 10 overall.

Derwin James (Los Angeles Chargers – S) | Derwin James has been one of the best defensive players in the league since he was drafted by the Chargers. When healthy, the star safety stuffs the stat sheet and can be seen making plays all over the field. He finished 2022 with 115 combined tackles, 2 INTs and 4 sacks. If James can play in all 17 games expect another big output from him.

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After missing all of his rookie season due to a Lisfranc injury, Travis Etienne was poised to break out in his second year. The former Clemson Tiger had a familiar face at quarterback in Trevor Lawrence and Doug Pederson was now running the offense. When the dust settled, Travis Etienne finished the fantasy year as RB17 (Half PPR) and totaled 187.6 FP. It wasn’t a down year by any means yet we all expected more from Etienne. Before we look ahead at Etienne’s fantasy outlook let’s first recap his 2022-2023 season.

2022

Travis Etienne started his 2022 campaign slowly. It wasn’t that big of a surprise since the RB was coming back from a pretty serious injury. He finished with single-digit fantasy points during his first 4 games. Etienne started to pick up momentum during the week 5 matchup against the Houston Texans. Etienne finished the day with 71 yards on the ground and an additional 43 yards receiving. After this game he started a streak of 4 straight double-digit fantasy point games including 3 top 10 finishes. This was the type of production fantasy owners were banking on.

After the bye week Etienne’s production slowed once again and this is the type of inconsistency that we don’t want to see in a top-tier running back. Thankfully Travis Etienne woke up again in his second matchup with the Texans. He used his vision to hit the hole, break the tackle and burst to the end zone for a 62-yard touchdown.

2023

As we start to project Travis Etienne’s value in 2023 and beyond it’s important to look at some key statistics. One of those is red zone stats among running backs. Etienne finished 30th in this metric behind the likes of Samaje Perine and Devin Singletary. The chances were there for Etienne as he had 59.4% of attempts in the red zone, he just couldn’t convert those into more points.

The Jacksonville Jaguars also drafted Tank Bigsby in the 3rd round of the 2023 NFL Draft. One could envision that the Jaguars are going to use him in the red zone given the stats I pointed out above. If that happens, Etienne’s value will take a hit.

Travis Etienne’s Fantasy Outlook

Travis Etienne is certainly a hot topic going into the upcoming season. He could be a league winner or he could end up costing you a chance at the playoffs. There seems to be no middle ground here. Currently, I have him slated at #21 overall in my 2023 top 100 fantasy rankings and I may drop him down some more. The inconsistency has me more worried about his overall value going forward.

Let’s take a quick look at where Etienne stands today in terms of ADP and FantasyPros ECR.

As you can see his ADP has stayed steady at 25 but his ECR is starting to drop. This goes to show that others are also second guessing his value going forward. I wouldn’t be surprised if his ECR continues to drop into the 20 range. As we move into training camp and the NFL preseason I will be keeping an eye on how Tank Bigsby is utilized. It will certainly have an impact on Etienne’s overall value. At this point, I have Travis Etienne on the tier 3 range of running backs for the 2023-2024 season.

The post Travis Etienne Fantasy Outlook Right Now appeared first on Pro Football Mania.

Arizona Cardinals: TE Zach Ertz [ADP: 154.6]

When healthy, Zach Ertz was one of the best TEs in football last season. He was consistently getting double-digit FPs from his looks from Kyler Murray. From Week 11 onwards, he was out for the season due to injury. Now, Arizona will not have Kyler as he tore his ACL so Colt McCoy will take the helm. Without Hopkins, there will be more opportunities for the other receivers. If Ertz can bounce back, he can have a sneaky good year for whoever picks him.

Los Angeles Rams: RB Cam Akers [ADP: 85.8]

The Los Angeles Rams had a disastrous season with multiple injuries and inconsistency hurting the team. With the team in a half-rebuild, one of the people who can lead the team is Cam Akers. He will lead the team in the backfield and end the year strong. He ran for over 100 yards in his last three games and he hopes to build on it the next season. Look for Akers to have a strong year.

San Francisco 49ers: WR Brandon Aiyuk [ADP: 89.9]

Brandon Aiyuk is often forgotten when talking about San Francisco’s offense. He led the team in catches and receiving yards. With the 49ers having a strong offense every year, Aiyuk at this ADP is a steal. He has improved his numbers every year and reached over 1000 receiving yards in 2022. The only uncertainty is the 49ers QB as we still don’t know who will be the man in charge.

Seattle Seahawks: QB Geno Smith [ADP: 52.8]

Geno Smith had a bounce-back season for the ages as he led the Seahawks above all expectations. He threw for 4282 yards and 30 TDs as he brought the team to the playoffs. The Seahawks QB ended the year fifth among all QBs and 13th overall in fantasy football. Now, his ADP is 52.8 or a fourth-round pick. With another year in Seattle and the team drafting Jaxson Smith-Njigba, he looks prime for another great year.

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Atlanta Falcons: RB Tyler Allgeier [ADP: 100.1]

Tyler Allgeier had a low-key amazing rookie season when he ran for 1035 yards and three TDs. In the last four games of the season, he ran for 431 yards and two TDs. You’d suspect that he’d be called the starter for the upcoming season, but Bijan Robinson says hello. The reps will go down as he’ll have to split with Bijan. The talent, however, is there and he’ll still get his reps. In his position, he’s worth a look at your flex position or stock up on depth as RBs run out very fast.

Carolina Panthers: RB Miles Sanders [ADP: 83.3]

Miles Sanders is in a new home when he got a four-year contract to play for the Carolina Panthers. The former Eagles RB had a career year when he ran for 1269 yards and 11 TDs. He’ll be the focal point in the Panthers’ offense as Bryce Young will slowly be eased in as QB. He doesn’t have to worry about reps also as he’ll receive the majority of the reps in the backfield. Miles Sanders at 83.3 is a steal.

New Orleans Saints: WR Michael Thomas [ADP: 125.6]

Is it time to trust Michael Thomas again? He was remarkable in the first three games of the season when he got at least five receptions and three TDs. The difficult part is that he never played after Week 3 due to injury. At 125.6, he’s worth a gamble with all his upside and he’ll have Derek Carr as his QB. Be wary of his injury history as you should have backup WRs in mind.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: QB Baker Mayfield [ADP 161.4]

Now, things may change as Kyle Trask might be the QB when the season starts. For now, we will rely on Baker’s experience as the current starter for Tampa Bay. People will be making fun of Baker’s missed throws in practice, but he’ll be enjoying once he gets more time with so many weapons such as Mike Evans and Chris Goodwin. He might be a sneaky backup option if you’re looking for a QB in the late part of the draft. Baker will also be motivated as this might be his last chance to be a starter.

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Before we look at next season, let’s take a look at the NFL target leaders from 2022. In the table below are the top 5 leaders in targets from last year. The first four finished in the same exact order in terms of total fantasy points amongst wide receivers (Half PPR). The only anomaly was A.J. Brown who jumped CeeDee Lamb and finished 5th in total fantasy points. Brown finished with 2 more touchdowns and 137 more yards.

2022 NFL Target Leaders

Predicting the Target Leaders for 2023-2024

Looking ahead to next season we can almost guarantee the top 5 target leaders will look different. For instance, in 2021 Cooper Kupp was the NFL target leader by a large margin +22. As we know Kupp suffered a serious ankle injury that cut his 2022 season short. Injuries aren’t the only factor to consider. Quarterback changes, coaching changes, free agency and the NFL Draft are all factors. Let’s now look at who I predict will be the NFL target leaders for next season.

2023 NFL Target Leaders (Projected)

Justin Jefferson will once again be the king of targets. I slotted his targets down but only slightly. This is due to the Minnesota Vikings adding Jordan Addison in the draft. It will take some time to get Addison up to speed but once he’s ready he should be productive in this offense. Also, keep in mind that Adam Thielen is no longer with the team.

Stefon Diggs will make the jump from #4 to #2 overall in targets. I am predicting 14 more targets for Diggs as he and Josh Allen continue to develop their chemistry. If somehow the Buffalo Bills end up grabbing DeAndre Hopkins I may re-adjust Diggs’ total targets.

Tyreek Hill‘s targets will drop but not by much. He will once again be the focal point in the Miami Dolphins offense. One major thing to keep an eye on is the health of Tua Tagovailoa. Can he stay healthy the entire season?

Next up it’s our first newcomer on the list. Garrett Wilson finished just outside the top 5 last year in total targets. Now with the addition of Aaron Rodgers, I expect his numbers to climb. I am not worried about Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb taking targets away. Wilson is the Jets #1 WR and they will continue to lean on him.

Last on the list is the always reliable Travis Kelce. Kelce finished 6th last season in total targets with 152. I expect him to hover around this range again in 2023-2024. The Chiefs no longer have JuJu Smith-Schuster and still lack a true #1 receiver. All that means is more target share for the great tight end.

The post Predicting the NFL Target Leaders for Next Season appeared first on Pro Football Mania.

Chicago Bears: TE Cole Kmet [ADP: 113.5]

Cole Kmet had a sneaky good season with a top-seven finish for TEs in fantasy football. He caught 50 balls for 544 yards and seven TDs. He and Justin Fields have established a connection that will still be reliable even with new additions on offense. At 113.5, he’s a very good TE to draft if you went heavy on the other positions first. Hopefully, more passing plays will be drawn up to use Kmet more.

Detroit Lions: WR Marvin Jones [ADP: 245.9]

Detroit picked up WR Marvin Jones from free agency to shore up their WR depth. Now, it looks like he should play a bigger role with WR Jameson Williams out due to a gambling suspension. Other than Amon-Ra, the Lions don’t have strong options on WR as they’re mostly young. Detroit might rely on Marvin Jones to help stabilize the WR core.

Green Bay Packers: RB Aaron Jones [ADP: 58]

Aaron Jones has slid down draft boards and has an ADP of 58. He was a first-round potential pick as late as a year or two ago. Seeing him at fifth-round value made no sense. He’s still a very good pass-catcher and will be a good chunk of the offense with Jordan Love still learning to play QB. I would draft him early knowing what he can do.

Minnesota Vikings: WR Jordan Addison [ADP 107.2]

The Vikings used their first-round pick on WR Jordan Addison out of USC. After letting go of Adam Thielen in the offseason, Addison looks to get the receptions of Thielen. With Justin Jefferson getting attention from the game plan, Addison can take advantage of this and produce a solid rookie season. He’s worth drafting for your flex position.

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