Many fantasy football players usually want the ”˜shiny new toy’ or rookies going into the new season. With the 2021 NFL draft now in the rearview mirror, we all know where the rookies will be beginning their careers at the highest levels.

Before the fantasy season kicks off, it could be the best time to take advantage of this ”˜rookie fever’ and sell players for peak dynasty value. This piece will look at three such rookie’s who could be sold for a haul. 

Kadarius Toney-

Toney split opinion going into the draft but ended up being selected by the New York Giants at pick number 20 following their trade with the Chicago Bears. They moved up to this spot previously owned by the Giants to snatch Justin Fields. 

The fact that Toney was taken this high and was the 4th wide receiver drafted in this class could be tempting in its own right to some dynasty owners. However, I would not be too sure. The Giants have added Kenny Golladay, who should come in and take over as the number one target in this offence, and also signed speedster John Ross. These two free-agent signings and the draft pick of Toney have crowded a receiver room that already has Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton sitting in it. 

The Giants also added two pass-catching tight ends, Kyle Rudolph and Kelvin Benjamin, who will join Evan Engram and Levine Toilolo at the position. 

As well as having players added at both the wide receiver and tight end positions, 2021 will also see Saquon Barkley’s return. Therefore we should assume that there will be fewer passes to go around. 

It is also unclear what the future holds for Daniel Jones at quarterback. There were whispers that the Giants could either draft a signal-caller or perhaps grab one in free agency, this did not happen, and the Giants will continue with Jones under centre for the time being. Suppose Jones does not perform with the available weapons. In that case, the Giants may take a leaf out of the Jets book and cut their losses and move on, which would potentially mean two transition years in a row for Kadarius Toney, initially after joining the NFL and secondly with a new quarterback. 

Zach Wilson-

Could Zach Wilson be a star in the NFL? The answer to that is yes. However, will that happen this year or even next year? To that question, I’m not so sure. 

Much like Toney, Wilson comes into the NFL with a 1st round draft cost which may be enough to get a good return on a dynasty trade, especially as he went 2nd overall to the New York Jets in this year’s draft.  

It is primarily due to his landing spot that I am not overly excited about Wilson in 2021. 

Wide Receivers at teams with a starting rookie quarterback-

If we look at the above table, we can see the top receivers for each franchise who will have a rookie quarterback playing in 2021 (The Chicago Bears are included as I expect Fields to start at some point). I prefer the group of both the Bears and the Jaguars compared to that of the Jets. Corey Davis is an excellent receiver who had a very productive 2020 season as a second wide receiver behind AJ Brown at the Titans. Can he step up to become an alpha receiving option for Zach Wilson? Will 2nd-year receiver Denzel Mims step up and breakout this season with a new quarterback under centre?

When we look at the running backs that Wilson has to lean on, it seems as if he will not have a workhorse behind him. Thus far, Tevin Coleman joined, following his exit from San Francisco, and took Frank Gore’s place during the offseason. 

The Jets are rebuilding, and I’m unsure how quickly Zach Wilson can hit high fantasy value.

Ja’Marr Chase- 

Ja’Marr Chase has the chance to be a superb player in the NFL. He is a player I have personally drafted in a start-up league. However, I am currently considering testing the trade market to see what I could get back for him.

He is the consensus wide receiver 15 currently, which for me seems high. There are a few other reasons why I think he could be a sell.

Firstly, will Joe Burrows be ready to play again from the very start of the season? And if he does, will he be able to play to the same level he was at pre-injury? Even if he does return to a reasonable level, it is common knowledge that the Bengals O-line is a problem area for the team. The line will need to be addressed at some point to protect their first-round draft pick from 2020.

Now, it is true that AJ Green has left Cincinnati to join the Arizona Cardinals, which will vacate targets that Chase can step into. However, Tyler Boyd and Tee Higgins will both take a large target share, limiting production at first. 

Joe Mixon only played six games in 2020, and getting him back could help the offence substantially. Without Mixon, the team had to be pass-heavy and should Mixon play the whole of the upcoming season; pass attempts should decrease.

The post Fantasy rookies to sell for top value appeared first on Pro Football Mania.

By: Marcel Boudreau

5 Rookies to Avoid

When drafting rookies for Dynasty or Re-draft leagues, it’s always important to nail your picks. This article is focused more on a dynasty approach, but there are some take home messages for any type of fantasy football league. The purpose of this is to highlight rookies to avoid during this year’s draft. One of the best strategies is to pick out the players that have bust potential matched with moderate ceilings. 

Pooka Williams RB – Rookie ADP 3.06 – 5’9” ”“ 175lbs

Pooka has BLAZING speed, is extremely elusive and has amazing acceleration. His ceiling is capped because his body is not built to withstand more than 8-12 carries a game. Pooka is the same height as Aaron Jones, yet weighs 33lbs less, which is not encouraging for a position that takes constant hits. If he lands in an offense that runs an outside zone, he has a chance at fantasy relevancy. However, trends are a thing, and he would be a complete outlier if successful at his size. Looking at Pooka’s college averages, he has gotten progressively worse every year across all relevant stats. He has the potential to be a great punt returner and at best, an explosive 3^rd down, change of pace back. A Tarik Cohen or James White type of career is his absolute ceiling. 

Tutu Atwell WR ”“ Rookie ADP 3.05 ”“ 5’ 8.5” ”“ 155lbs 

Tutu gets open because he is fast. Some people like to say “I don’t care how he gets open; I just care that he is open” are fooling themselves. NFL corners and DBs are getting faster and are absolute specimens, most will be able to stay close enough to Tutu to at least semi-contest the catch. Atwell is not as sharp of a route runner as he could be, he has a terrible high-point, small catch radius, struggles in contested catches, cannot break tackles and has a history of drops. At his size, to excel at the next level he would need to standout in a second and maybe a third variable outside of speed, which he does not. This leads to expect a potential career as an amazing kick returner, but a relevant fantasy option from the WR position is not the case. Tutu would need a top 5 QB in terms of accuracy and throwing the WR open to have a shot at fantasy relevancy, and banking on landing spot over talent is a risky, short lived experience. 

Trey Lance QB ”“ SF Rookie ADP 1.06 ”“ 6’ 3” ”“ 224lbs 

Hot take. Trey Lance is a shot in the dark rookie pick. He’s had 1 year of relevant production playing Division 1 tier 2 college teams. Lance has never played vs. a top 25 college team in his career so the variables are unknown what he can do against stiff competition. His 2019 season put him on the NFL radar, after throwing a 28 TDs and 0 INTs, and rushing for 1100 yards and 14 TDs. Lance did what he was supposed to do and dominated weaker players and teams. A noteworthy concern is the comparisons to Josh Allen’s path. When comparing the tape of both QBs against similar competition, there’s not even a glimmer of doubt that Josh Allen was the better player, even as a runner. 

The most under-talked about move, is that Lance was known for not throwing any INTs in 2019, and if he could have a similar performance in 2020, his draft stocks would shoot up, as it was not a “one-year wonder” situation. In 2020, Lance came out and threw an INT in the first game of 2020, then followed it up by sitting the season due to COVID. This seems extremely fishy”¦ almost like an agent got in his ear and told him that his stock was high enough, that a mediocre season would hurt it, and to use COVID as an excuse to dismiss the season and have his stock be relied on his 2019 season. Lance had all the rights in the world to sit out 2020 due to COVID, but the skeptical piece is that if Lance was concerned about COVID, like most players, he would have decided to dismiss 2020 entirely. Instead, he went ahead and played in a game, threw the INT and then dismissed his season”¦ 

Again, Trey Lance is worth a rookie pick, just not the 1.06. Lance is deserving of an early 2^nd round pick as of now, but his landing spot and draft stock have a chance of changing that. 

Jermar Jefferson RB ”“ Rookie ADP 3.03 ”“ 5’ 10” ”“ 206lbs 

Jermar has the ideal size and contact balance which masks his lack of athleticism and explosiveness. He finished with the slowest 3-cone time of the top 25 RB prospects, which speaks a lot about his lack of elusiveness. Jefferson has a lot of similarities to Royce Freeman, in the sense that both guys are incredibly hard to take down but fail to have anything else standout in terms of skills. Jermar has decent vision, and is a great pass blocker, but is a below average pass catcher who lacks burst. Jermar does initiate contact first, which tends to wear defenses out, but also brings up breakdown injury risk. There are other RBs that have much more upside, and a fall in the draft would not be surprising.  

Warren Jackson WR ”“ 6’ 6” ”“ 219lbs 

The hype train on Warren Jackson needs to stop. Jackson is extremely slow off the line, does not have breakaway speed, and struggles in run blocking. Warren Jackson might be the next N’Keal Harry as they both excel in jump ball situations, but between the 20s, they fail to serve a whole lot of purpose. Jackson’s floor is extremely low as he is not a possessional WR. 

The post Fantasy Football: 5 2021 Rookies to Avoid appeared first on Pro Football Mania.

By: Joe Mason @JosephMason94

The later rounds of rookie drafts can sometimes feel pointless. Most individuals are zoned in on the top three to four rookies at each position as the chances to hit are slim for late round rookies. What I can tell you from experience is that these later rookie picks do not have a great chance, but each pick is meaningful and you have a chance at finding a hidden gem. These later picks should be targeted for low-risk high reward players that have a lot of upside potential. Here are some examples of later round rookie picks by year that ended up panning out:

(2017 / Chris Godwin / 3.03)

(2018 / Josh Allen / 3.04)

(2019 / Terry McLaurin / 3.04)

(2020 / James Robinson / UND)

The odds are not great, but investing your chips into high upside players increases your chances of hitting. The below rookies are guys I have my eyes on that might not pan out in year one, but could be studs later on like the guys from the list above.

Kylin Hill (RB / Mississippi State)

Age: 22 / Height: 5’11” / Weight: 190 lbs.

The four-year man out of Mississippi State broke out in 2019 and contributed 29% of Mississippi State’s total offensive yards. In an emotional press conference last year, he opted out for the 2020 season. Hill brings elusiveness, balance, and power when he runs the football.

The San Francisco 49ers would be a great landing spot for Hill where the Shanahan system would complement his game nicely. The Houston Texans are looking for a third down back with Duke Johnson gone, so I can also see him landing in the backfield with David Johnson. Regardless, the rookie is fun to watch. He needs to work on improving his pass catching ability, but watch out for Hill in the later rounds who is currently going at 3.06 in 1QB rookie mocks.

Brevin Jordan (TE / Miami)

Age: 20 / Height: 6’3” / Weight: 245 lbs.

Kyle Pitts. Kyle Pitts. Kyle Pitts. It seems as of late all we hear about it how Pitts is the best tight end prospect we have ever seen, but this has led the rest of the TE class to be overshadowed in his hype. If Brevin Jordan was in last year’s TE rookie class, he would have been a top tier option.

At only 20 years old, Jordan is a bit young but he actually broke out at a very young age. For those who don’t know what breakout age is, its when a college player usually under 20 years old accounts for 20% of a team’s receiving yards and touchdowns. The hit rate is much higher if a player broke out before they were 20.

Jordan had a very consistent career at Miami posting 105/1358/13 over three seasons. If he lands on a team like the Los Angeles Chargers this could be great for Jordan’s dynasty outlook. Some may not consider Jordan a sleeper, but I’ve seen him ranked from rookie TE2, all the way down to TE5. His ADP is 3.01 in 1QB mocks.

Dwayne Eskridge (WR / Western Michigan)

Age: 24 / Height: 5’9” / Weight: 188 lbs.

Dwayne Eskridge might be my favorite sleeper of this class. The dude is absolutely electric and can take any slant to the house. He’s got the hands, the route running, and the 4.4 speed to make big plays over the top of defenses. Teams have been looking for the next Tyreek Hill and we’ve seen speed lead to high draft capital with Ruggs in 2020 and Ross in 2017 but both of them have not played up to expectations just yet. I believe Eskridge has the tools to make an impact at the next level and his rookie ADP of 3.02 is too low.

Eskridge played five years at Western Michigan with his best season coming in 2020 where he put up 34/784/8 averaging a whopping 23 yards per catch. He broke his collarbone in 2019 but had solid 2017 & 2018 seasons having at least 30/506/3 in both. He is a bit older but he is more NFL ready than most wideouts in this draft.

If you have some time, go watch his highlight tape from 2020. Grab some popcorn and watch Eskridge turn regular plays into chunk gains and big play touchdowns. He recently interviewed with Mackenzie Salmon and guaranteed he would run a 4.2 at his pro day on March 21^st.  He’s currently a day three prospect but a 4.2 40 would move him up to at least day two.

The post Fantasy Football: Rookie Sleepers appeared first on Pro Football Mania.