By: Jake Rajala

The Buffalo Bills leveled up this off-season via signing Von Miller and drafting James Cook – after being edged by the Patrick Mahomes and Tyreek Hill show in the recent AFC Divisional round clash. The Bills Mafia is ready to strive to be the next team to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl. Well, the Josh Allen-led Bills have their first test against the reigning Super Bowl Champions (Los Angeles Rams) in TWO DAYS!

So, I’m going to bring optimism and joy to the Bills fan base by untwining 5 reasons why the Bills could win in Week 1.

• Edge rush

The Los Angeles Rams quietly lost a big piece of their team this off-season in Andrew Whitworth. The Thanos-like character wasn’t exactly a slouch last season – as he earned a whopping 86.1 grade by PFF. I anticipate that Miller will prey on feasting against the young LT Joe Noteboom – who garnered a 60.3 grade by PFF in 2020.

• Allen’s rushing ability

I won’t lie – the LA Rams are pretty darn good at stopping the run and the pass. Although, it will be hard for the Rams to account for Allen’s ability to mow down opponents with his legs. The Bills QB1 registered 763 rushing yards a season ago. Perhaps he can use his power in the red-zone.

• Ed Oliver

The Bills obviously need Miller to play lights out against his former team. Nonetheless, they need their former first-round pick Ed Oliver to take the next step in 2022. He may not be Aaron Donald, but he can thrive from his match-ups alongside Miller & Gregory Rousseau. He is undoubtedly the x-factor on the Bills defense for their monster Week 1 showdown.

• Gabriel Davis

It’s time – Kevin Greene

After Gabriel Davis was a flat-out grim reaper (with four TD catches) against the KC Chiefs in the AFC Divisional round, he should really aim to be a consistent threat in 2022. The Bills moved on from Cole Beasley & Emmanual Sanders to make room for more Davis magic. Stefon Diggs might have a tough time mopping the floor against Jalen Ramsey, but I still forsee Davis being a nightmare against his opponent.

• Dawson Knox

The Bills really need a couple of weapons not named Stefon Diggs to show out on Thursday. It would be easy to peg the polarizing rookie James Cook as a name to watch, but I believe the Bills will have a nice gameplan for Dawson Knox. He can help Allen stay efficient and be a nice check-down against the extremely dangerous Rams defense.

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By: Jake Rajala

The Buffalo Bills drafted former Georgia Bulldog James Cook, also known as Dalvn Cook’s younger brother, 63rd overall in the 2022 NFL Draft. Cook was an excellent, bell-cow RB for Georgia in his senior season. He averaged 6.4 YPC, totaled 728 rushing yds, and also nicely recorded 284 receiving yds. Most importantly, he possesses excellent explosiveness and pass-catching ability that should help him transition into having a unique role at the pro level.

Jay from Buffalo News feels that Devin Singletary’s role shouldn’t change a bit with Cook in 2022. He forsees Cook potentially being the starting third-down back in the Bills offense in his rookie season. It would make sense if the Bills incorporated Cook into a pass-catching threat for Josh Allen, as he could be the x-factor that can help the Bills get over the hump. The Patriots did a fantastic job of implementing RB/WR James White in their scheme for Tom Brady (as White was the second SB MVP in Super Bowl 51). Furthermore, Darren Sproles was a fantastic all-purpose weapon for Drew Brees and Phillip Rivers.

Cook will certainly help a Bills passing offense that cut ties with the Cole Beasley and Emmanual Sanders this off-season. The Bills playoff legend Gabriel Davis is expected to take the next step alongside Stefon Diggs and Dawson Knox (9 touchdowns last season), but there should be plenty of opportunities for Cook to excel in the passing game. Perhaps Allen can improve his completion percentage and commit fewer interceptions than last season (15 ints in 2021) with a superb security blanket in Cook.

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By: Jake Rajala

The Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen was in full John Wick-mode during the recent playoff match-up against Kansas City. Unfortunately, his defense was stuck in rookie mode and allowed Patrick Mahomes to march into field goal position with 13 seconds left in the fourth quarter. After the Chiefs converted a last-second field goal in the exhibition, they proceeded to score a touchdown in overtime. Allen threw more passing TDs (4) than Mahomes (3), but his defense left his playoff performance and special 2021-2022 outcome (4,400 passing yds, 763 rushing yds, 42 total touchdowns) in ashes.

With that enunciated, I believe Allen will take a step further in his fifth season and realistically have a strong case to win MVP. Here are three reasons why the Bills QB could be crowned MVP next season.

Gabriel Davis

I believe it’s clearly wiser for the Bills to get Gabriel Davis more involved across from Stefon Diggs than the likes of Cole Beasley and Emmanuel Sanders (not to mention that Jamison Crowder is a stout WR3). Davis wasn’t just a playoff menace, as he was actually progressing nicely in the back-end of last regular season. Expect him to be consistently involved and reliable in his third season, especially when he could seek a hefty contract extension in the 2023 summer.

The demise of other QB legends

Let’s be honest – the MVP is usually a QB award. Allen shouldn’t only be slightly more productive with his 2022 offense, but the other cream of the crop QB profiles arguably lost firepower this off-season. Aaron Rodgers will miss Davante Adams, Patrick Mahomes witnessed Tyreek Hill leave, and Tom Brady doesn’t have AB (and he will likely lose Gronk). I expect the likes of Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, and Allen to have a golden opportunity to steal the show from aging, greek god-like QBs.

Overall roster talent

The success (team victories) is beneficial to a QB’s MVP case, to say the least. Allen will not only have superb weaponry at his disposal, but he will also have a friendly, elite defense. If Allen can inch closer to becoming a Top 3 QB, while his team notches a couple more victories than last season, he could have the strongest case to win MVP next season.

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By: Jake Rajala

The Buffalo Bills wide receiver Gabriel Davis has slowly climbed the ladder as a Buffalo Bill in each of his past two seasons. Davis notched 35 receptions in 2020 and 35 receptions in 2021. The explosion with the 23-year-old WR notably arrived in the recent playoff gauntlet. Davis unleashed four touchdowns in the divisional round contest against the KC Chiefs, as he was the first WR in NFL history to catch four touchdowns in a playoff contest.

Davis wasn’t really a fluky “Matt Flynn-like character” with his performance, as his last quarter of 2021 revealed a weapon getting more involved in the Bills offense. He averaged 8 targets over his last four regular-season games. His rate of targets late in the 2021 season was double his near 4 targets per game. It would seem obvious that the Bills were nicely brewing more play design with his unique ability.

I expect Davis to be very involved in his offense that will miss Cole Beasley AND Emmanual Sanders. Beasley and Sanders combined for 124 receptions last season, so Davis should nicely replace a lot of production missed by his two former veteran teammates.

I feel comfortable with the floor of Davis, but he could really lift off in the Josh Allen-led offense. Beasley ousted 82 receptions and 967 yards in 2020 and that could be a realistic stat-line for Davis next season. He’s currently pegged as an ascending WR2 in the Bills offense across from Stefon Diggs. He should be a serious play-maker in his third year with a floor of 700+ yards and 100+ targets, while he might just be the next Chris Godwin and the be the next surprise, elite WR. If you are a believer in Allen, it’s time to expect a consistent, future star in Davis.

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Daniel Racz @Danny_Dimes

Introduction

The most likely year for a wide receiver to “breakout” is in their sophomore year. The 2020 class, the best since the 2014 class that contains Mike Evans, Odell Beckham, and Davante Adams, has many weapons that could make a jump this season. Viking’s first-round pick Justin Jefferson already cemented himself as an elite wide receiver in almost any metric (separation, yards per route run, yards per game, and fantasy points per game). Appropriately, Jefferson is going in the top 26 picks per Underdog Fantasy’s BestBall ADP. CeeDee Lamb, Tee Higgins, and Brandon Aiyuk all had exceptional rookie years too. The Lamb through Aiyuk tier already had their breakout, but are priced more reasonably than Jefferson. Lamb (32.9), Higgins (53.2), and Aiyuk (60.2) all can be drafted for a more affordable price. 

After that tier, all the sophomore wide receivers are drafted with the hope of a breakout, but that breakout should not be expected for all of them. Jerry Jeudy (74.8), Laviska Shenault (83.2), Michael Pittman (102.2), Darnell Mooney (107.4), Henry Ruggs (122.4), Gabriel Davis (130.1), and Jalen Reagor (132.9) have a chance to emerge as top wide receivers, but some are far more likely than others. Three of these wideouts specifically should not be drafted as high as they are currently going, and are likely to underperform. 

Michael Pittman Jr.

Michael Pittman Jr. is a curious case of volume versus skill. On the one hand, Pittman has zero competition, meaning he should be the number one target for Carson Wentz and have the chance to see a monstrous target share, right? 

In the wise words of Lee Corso, not so fast. Pittman came into the National Football League as a senior declare, red flag number one. When Pittman was a junior, he got out-produced by true freshman Amon-Ra St. Brown, red flag number two. Brown went in the fourth round of the 2021 draft, suggesting the NFL was not a big fan of his. In Pittman’s rookie year, he only commanded 60 targets and tallied only 503 yards and one touchdown, red flag number three. So, why do people want to like Michael Pittman? “Upside.”

The case for Pittman does not rely on his talent. Per PlayerProfiler, Pittman averaged 1.43 yards per route run, good for 72nd at the position. Teammate Zach Pascal, currently going undrafted in leagues, averaged 1.39 YPRR, ranking 76th at the position. T.Y Hilton ranked 50th with 1.78 YPRR. The Colts’ receiving room is not good, but Pittman was not good enough to separate himself from the other weapons last year. Targets are earned, not given. That is to say that if Pittman is not receiving targets, it is likely because he is not a good football player. 

So far, Michael Pittman has played to his collegiate profile. Expecting an improbable outcome, like a Pittman breakout, is an exercise in futility. Instead of spending a 9th round pick on Pittman, take Laviska at the 7-8 turn or even Darnell Mooney in the 9th if you crave a sophomore wide receiver. The best values in the 9th round are not quarterbacks, they are running backs and quarterbacks. Draft Tom Brady, Ryan Tannehill, or James Conner instead of Pittman.

Henry Ruggs

Henry Ruggs opened the offseason with an ADP in the 12/13th round. At this price, he was intriguing. Ruggs has game-breaking speed, but the Raiders treated him as a field stretcher and only a field stretcher. His average depth of target was 17.4 yards during the 2020 season, suggesting that his role was limited. The Raiders replaced Nelson Agholor with John Brown, so there is room for improvement with Henry Ruggs. Best case, Ruggs steps into the Agholor role and sees a more prominent role in the offense. Worst case, John Brown becomes the new Agholor, and Ruggs stays in a fantasy irrelevant role.

Henry Ruggs was a divisive prospect during the 2020 draft cycle. Some film grinders and draft scouts had him ranked as high as wide receiver one in the class. However, many that use analytics and data in their prospect rankings ranked Ruggs far lower. Some even had him outside their top ten wide receivers in the class due to his lack of breakout age and his status as the fourth wide receiver on the Alabama offense. 

Ruggs should be drafted with the assumption that he may give you a few usable weeks, but banking on his almost unattainable upside is not a good bet. At the 10/11 turn, there are wide receivers like Rashod Bateman and Marvin Jones. Both of those wide receivers have a chance to command more targets, and Bateman has a good opportunity to be the top target-getter in the Baltimore offense. 

Gabriel Davis

Never have I witnessed this much hype for the fourth wide receiver on an offense. Add in the fact that Zach Ertz might be coming to Buffalo, and Davis is a screaming fade. Currently, Davis is the Bills wide receiver two by ADP, as Cole Beasley’s recent anti-science rants have dropped him behind Davis. Need I remind the Underdog draft community that Gabe Davis was a day 3 draft pick? Day three picks are rarely consistent fantasy performers (don’t chase outliers!). However, Davis is not even the most compelling day 3 wide receiver in his class. Darnell Mooney, a 5th round pick out of Tulane, is the locked and loaded wide receiver two on his offense. Davis currently sits behind Stefon Diggs, Cole Beasley, and Emmanuel Sanders. Sanders is still a great separator and quick off the line of scrimmage. Assuming that Davis will take on the number three role is foolish. Davis’s 2020 production was inflated by a 20% touchdown rate. His 599 receiving yards are a reasonable expectation for the 2021 season, but that will not be a good return-on-investment in the 11th round.

Again, players like Bateman and Marvin Jones are available where Davis is going. But, more importantly, you can get a piece of the Buffalo offense a round or two later. Emmanuel Sanders, who is set to see more snaps than Gabe Davis, can be drafted in the 13th round of your drafts. Do not make the mistake of drafting these sophomore wide receivers, and you will be rewarded when the season comes to an end. 

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