Quarterbacks

QB Derek Carr $5300
Derek Carr plays against the Titans today whom were 29th in the league in fantasy points to opposing QBs last year. Allowing 274.8 YPG through the air, ranking dead last at 32nd this Titans team didn’t do a whole lot to improve their secondary. They are great up front as they were the number 1 defense against the run last year. Carr is my favorite stack play of the day.

QB Justin Herbert $6900
This game has the highest over under of any game on the slate today. Two high powered offenses with a whole lot of talent, and two defenses while boasting many talented players, do give up a lot of points. Dolphins gave up 23.2 PPG while the Chargers gave up 22.7. Herbert could be in line for a QB1 performance as the Dolphins were 30th in the league last year in fantasy points per game allowed to QBs.

Dart Throws at QB
Desmond Ridder/Baker Mayfield $4900
If you’re looking to play a lot of high priced studs, I can see either of these guys throwing for 2 TDs today.

Running Backs

RB JK Dobbins $6600
Finally healthy with a lot more weapons on the outside will mean that Dobbins will be in an excellent position to succeed. He should see less men in the box as there is more attention paid to the pass catchers in this offense. Dobbins also gets a juicy opportunity against the team that allowed the most rushing yards(170.2) and fantasy points(28.5) to RB per game last year in the Houston Texans.

RB Raheem Mostert $5400
The Chargers allowed 144.2 YPG on the ground last year as they were one of three teams to give up over 2000 yards last year. With Jeff Wilson Jr going on IR the only competition he will really have in the backfield will be rookie Devin Achane. He could be in line for a 100 yard game with a TD.

RB Brian Robinson Jr $5100
The Cardinals are going to be bad this year, and not in the good way. They ranked 29th in fantasy points against RBs as they gave up a lot of over 100 receptions to RBs last year. I expect a huge day in check downs on top of his work on the ground.

Dart Throws at RB
Devin Achane $4900
AJ Dillon $5200
Gus Edwards $4500

Wide Receivers

WR Chris Olave $6500
If Derek Carr is going to dice up this defense, I want to stack him with Olave. As bad as the Titans were against the QB last year, they were the worst against the WR in fantasy, ranking 32nd. I expect multiple Saints receivers to be celebrating in the end zone today, Olave has the best chance at topping 100 yards as well.

WR Justin Jefferson $8800
He was the number 1 player drafted in fantasy for a reason, he’s the highest salaried player for a reason. If you’re playing him, you’re going to need a lot of value plays to match him up. Not much else to say here, he’s amazing.

WR Keenan Allen $7300
I’m expecting a huge bounce back season from Allen as he and Herbert continue to grow their connection. Great matchup to start as Allen should see somewhere near 12 targets today, and a few of those in the red zone.

Dart Throws at WR
Drake London $5400
Michael Thomas $5100
Could see either of these guys in the end zone today.

Tight Ends

TE TJ Hockenson $5900
After trading for Hockenson last year, he quickly became one of Kirk Cousin’s favorite targets. The number two to JJ, in a very solid matchup, Buccaneers ranked 29th against TEs last year. I could see a double digit target number with a TD for Hock today.

TE Greg Dulcich $4000
Sean Payton loves his TE in the red zone, but Dulcich is a solid route runner with above average athleticism. He should have a great year in this system and I would look for him to have a solid return on a low price point today.

TE Logan Thomas $3200
These are the kind of values you need to play other than the higher priced studs. The cliche is a young QB needs a good TE to get the ball out quickly, and I believe the cliche will ring true today. I expect a 8 target day for Logan Thomas and wouldn’t be surprised to see him score.

Dart Throw at TE
Taysom Hill $3700
He could throw a pass, run the ball, and catch the ball. Taysom Hill is the Ultimate Dart Throw.

Defense/ST

D/ST Washington $2800
The Commanders are a better defense than they get credit for. They can pressure the QB and create turnovers. Big upside play.

D/ST Baltimore $4000
Highest defense on the slate, if you have the money left over, don’t be afraid to spend it on the Ravens.

D/ST Eagles $3700
Sacks, sacks, sacks, and of course sacks.

Optimal lineup
QB Derek Carr
RB Brian Robinson Jr
RB JK Dobbins
WR Chris Olave
WR Michael Thomas
WR Keenan Allen
Flex Raheem Mostert
TE TJ Hockenson
D/ST Washington Commanders

Good Luck everyone, I’ll see you out there. Let’s make that money.

The post DFS Plays for Week 1 appeared first on Pro Football Mania.

Daniel Racz @Danny___Dimes

Introduction

In fantasy football land, top-performing running backs are coveted. In the National Football League, efficient backs on rookie contracts are valuable. A sophomore running back still has three years remaining on their rookie deal, but often has the chance to produce at league-leading levels. Last year, Miles Sanders and Josh Jacobs were given pre-season hype from their coaches. These comments led the fantasy community to expect them to take the sought-after sophomore breakout. However, David Montgomery was the back that took the jump. Sanders and Jacobs were expected to receive more targets and secure a three-down role, but both did not meet expectations. Montgomery’s jump occurred after Tarik Cohen tore his ACL, causing Monty to receive most of the team’s running back targets.

The 2020 running back class is one of the best in recent memory. Though Clyde Edwards-Helaire was the only first-round running back, five other running backs came off the board between picks 35 and 66. D’Andre Swift, Jonathan Taylor, Cam Akers, J.K. Dobbins, and Antonio Gibson are all primed to be the lead backs on their team. In 2020, Taylor was the Colts’ premier runner once Marlon Mack went down with an Achilles injury during week one. D’Andre Swift is on a Detroit Lions team that can be described as a work-in-progress as best, so it is unlikely he becomes a star this year. Though Akers has the opportunity to dominate for the Rams, his injury-riddled 2020 season did not impress. However, the rest of those sophomores stand a great chance to lead their teams to the playoffs and bring fantasy managers to their championships.

Antonio Gibson

The Washington Football Team won the NFC (L)East with a losing record in 2020. Their defense played as expected, with star defensive lineman Chase Young, Montez Sweat, Jonathan Allen, and Daron Payne leading the unit. Despite lackluster Quarterback play, the weapons on the team excelled. Wide Receiver Terry Mclaurin proved that he was a premier outside playmaker, even if his Quarterbacks could not throw the ball more than 20 yards downfield. 

The Football Team made numerous additions to their offensive during the offseason. During Free Agency, the team signed Quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick, Wide Receiver Curtis Samuel and Offensive Tackle Charles Leno.The Football Team selected tackle Samuel Cosmi and Wide Receiver Dyami Brown during the 2021 NFL draft. All of this is to say that the new-look Football Team could be far better than we anticipate. 

If Washington’s offense improves, Antonio Gibson will be a key benefactor. Offensive coordinator Scott Turner has already said that he wants to prioritize getting the ball to Antonio in the passing game. Gibson, a former college receiver, was an afterthought in the passing game because JD McKissic, another college wideout, received a majority of the backfield targets. McKissic received a position-leading 110 targets last season with Captain Checkdown, Alex Smith, at Quarterback. McKissic’s slot usage will take a hit because of Curtis Samuel and Dyami Brown’s presence. There is a chance that McKissic is irrelevant altogether if Gibson takes on more receiving work. 

Antonio Gibson played his first year at running back in the highest level of professional football, and he fared pretty well. His natural athleticism, specifically his 4.39 speed at 228 pounds, came through on countless breakaway runs. Gibson will only get more comfortable at the position with more playing time and his first full offseason. If Washington’s offense takes a step forward and decides to unleash Antonio Gibson in the receiving game, the sky’s the limit for him.

Projected Statline: 272 carries, 1,306 yards, 70 targets, 61 receptions, 447 receiving yards, 12 total touchdowns

277.8 .5 PPR Fantasy Points (16.3 Fantasy Points Per Game)

J.K. Dobbins

The best pure football player coming out of the 2020 draft at the running back position was J.K. Dobbins. His blend of track star speed (4.30 Forty time) and impeccable vision make him a premier back in the National Football League. Dobbins rushed for a position-leading 6.0 yards-per-carry last year. The fact that he is not regarded as a top back in the league is baffling, yet understandable at the same time. On the one hand, Dobbins was a hyper-efficient running back on an electric offense with versatility as a receiver. On the other hand, Dobbins only carried the ball 134 times last season and barely eclipsed 800 yards while competing with Gus Edwards for touches. 

The Chiefs should have picked Dobbins over Clyde Edwards-Helaire in the first round of the 2020 draft, but Dobbins fell to the 55th pick in the second round. The Ravens saw how much success Dobbins had running beside Justin Fields, so they paired with their dual-threat quarterback, Lamar Jackson. Any running back benefits from a mobile quarterback, as it makes defenders key in on multiple potential runners every play. However, J.K.’s skillset relies on making defenders miss in short areas. If Dobbins only has one defender to beat to the edge, he can use his video game-like change-of-direction to juke them out and take any run to the end zone. 

Throughout the first few weeks of minicamp and OTAs, the Ravens vocalized their desire to use Dobbins as a wide receiver. Dobbins would undoubtedly improve the Ravens’ passing attack. However, there is a chance that the Ravens are giving the public “Coach Speak” and misleading the public. If the Ravens do only give Dobbins 1-2 targets a game, he will still be a solid contributor. 

However, the upside that Dobbins possesses can transform the Baltimore offense and boost your fantasy team. The chance to get targets in the most run-heavy offense in the league is rare, but the Ravens keep touting Dobbins. His 2020 season was littered with drops, but the Ravens’ confidence in the young man indicates that he will move past the rookie errors. Though Dobbins will not see a Christian McCaffrey, or even Antonio Gibson, type workload, he does not need to. The lead back in the Baltimore committee is undervalued, and you should take advantage before the public catches on.

Projected Statline: 231 carries, 1,331 yards, 48 targets, 38 receptions, 285 receiving yards, 11 touchdowns

246.6 .5 PPR Fantasy Points (14.5 Fantasy Points Per Game)

The post Why Antonio Gibson and J.K. Dobbins will dominate in 2021 appeared first on Pro Football Mania.