Buffalo Bills: WR Gabriel Davis (ADP 117.9)

Gabe Davis had a solid season last season where he had 48 receptions for 836 yards and seven TDs. However, people expected him to have a bigger jump, so his stock is a little low now. The positive is that he plays in a system where Josh Allen throws a lot so he will get his receptions, yards, and touchdowns. To get Gabe Davis in the 8th-10th round is a steal for your flex position.

Miami Dolphins: TE Durham Smythe (ADP 318.8)

Durham Smythe was a big winner in free agency when Mike Gesicki signed with the rival Patriots. He was then extended for two years worth close to $8M. Now the Miami offense passes a lot, so Durham will get his chances as Gesicki did last season. Expect an increase in production for Smythe.

New England Patriots: RB James Robinson (ADP 227.9)

It was a tough 2022 season for James Robinson as he recovered from an Achilles injury in 2021 and had trouble finding playing time after he was traded to the Jets. In the offseason, the Patriots picked up James Robinson to serve as a backup to Rhamondre Stevenson. New England loves running the ball so Robinson will have his touches. In case Stevenson gets hurt, Robinson is a solid backup to have.

New York Jets: TE Tyler Conklin (ADP 215.2)

One of my favorite secrets from last year’s fantasy season was TE Tyler Conlin of the Jets. He had consistent moments last season, such as his first four weeks where he averaged close to 10 FP. His best came against New England in Week 8 where he had six catches for 79 yards and two TDs for 25.90. With Aaron Rodgers coming into town and he loves throwing it to his TEs, Conklin could be a sneaky late-round pick if you need a TE.

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By: Jake Rajala

The dynasty fantasy football world is firing off on all cylinders right now. With that said, I’m going to highlight the pivotal running back spot – as I untwine five overrated dynasty running backs.

Rashaad Penny

The explosive Seattle Seahawks RB Rashaad Penny hasn’t quite been a consistent force in the league. Unfortunately, he hasn’t played more than 10 games in each of the past three seasons. Furthermore, He will be splitting the rock with the former Michigan State Spartan Kenneth Walker moving forward. Walker has seen more action with Penny already nursing injuries in training camp.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire

I love the Kansas City Chiefs RB depth so much that I am not head over heels for RB1 Clyde Edwards-Helaire. I predict Jerick “Jet” McKinnon to be more involved and productive in the Chiefs offensive attack. Of course, Ronald Jones will be a game-changer in unique ways with the Patrick Mahomes-led offense. CEH, who still gets undeserved respect for the first-round badge and bunk bed with Mahomes, should be traded away.

Josh Jacobs

I don’t expect the Las Vegas Raiders to ship away Josh Jacobs, but I don’t believe he will elevate his game and ascend into the same caliber RB as Nick Chubb. Jacobs will share meat on the bone with the fresh rookie Zamir White. NFL.com analyst Lance Zeirlein dubbed White as a pivotal rookie for the Raiders. It’s also obvious that Davante Adams and a healthy Darren Waller will eat up a lot of attention in the Raiders passing game.

Alvin Kamara

It appears that Saints fans are happy that Alvin Kamara will not be punished by the league in 2022. However, the grim reaper will leave his mark on AK in the following season. Kamara is climbing up in age, in a loaded passing offense, and approaching a sure-fire suspension. Hence, It would be wise to find a lucrative offer to trade him away now.

James Robinson

The times are changing in the Jaguars back-field with a healthy Travis Etienne. The former Clemson RB missed the entire 2021 season, but he is back and ready to handle the load in Doug Pederson’s offense. Although, I don’t expect Etienne or Robinson to have the most stable success behind the Jags OL. I am less optimistic that there is a light at the end of the tunnel for the veteran James Robinson. He is also still nursing an Achilles injury.

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By: Doug Ludemann

Few things in life move at the speed of fantasy football. Player values skyrocket, or tank, based on the mere editing of a player’s social media bio. In fact, I’m old enough to remember when some considered Travis Etienne the best running back in his class. Fast forward to the present, and fellow blue-chip sophomore running backs Najee Harris and Javonte Williams is making waves in both their NFL careers as well as in dynasty rankings as they charge ahead of a slew of veterans in most people’s ranks.

One can’t say the same about Etienne, who remains an enigmatic RB13 on the KTC rankings. Slotting in just after Nick Chubb and before Saquan Barkley and Alvin Kamara. Does his current outlook justify his consensus value?

Etienne had a good college profile, with ample production both on the ground and through the air. Drafted in the first round to pair with his college QB Trevor Lawrence, expectations for him were high in 2021 before his Lisfranc injury in August 2021. There is still cause for optimism, as Etienne’s rehab has gone well by all accounts, and he is projected to be present in the team’s offseason workout programs, buoying hopes that he’ll be available for the start of training camp. That timetable is reasonable, given an average recovery period of about 30 weeks for athletes who suffered a Lisfranc injury. It should be noted that it is not uncommon for recovery to stretch over a year for your typical patient.

A 30-week recovery period would put us at about March 15^th from the date of his injury. On The Players Podcast, Etienne mentioned that he had started running back in February, “My foot is doing much better,” Etienne said. “Really just got back into the gym for the first time and I’m squatting for the first time this past week. So that’s been good and I’ve been running for a while now. I’m kind of getting to that 80% to 85% range.”

As encouraging as his recovery has been, it’s worth noting that the research regarding player performance following a Lisfranc injury seems less elucidating. Scientists tracked athletes following surgical treatment for Lisfranc injuries and noted that on average athletes subjectively attained 87% of their previous “level of play” following their recovery”¦with the emphasis in that sentence on the term subjective.

In an unrelated study, scientists tracked the performance of NFL players following Lisfranc injuries, determining that players return to play at a median of 11 months from injury. They also found that the performance of both offensive and defensive players decreased following injury, but that decrease was not statistically significant, i.e. it may have been a chance finding an artifact of the sample data. In this study, they defined performance based on the “power rating” metric, defined as (touchdowns x 6)+(total yards/10), and the defensive power rating as (total tackles)+(total sacks x 2)+(total interceptions x 2). They then compared player performance pre/post-injury. The use of the “power rating” metric to gauge player performance has a precedent in comparing the performance of players post ACL injury. My concern with this type of analysis is that year-over-year variation in most of those metrics is already poor. Stats like touchdowns, interceptions, and sacks are simply not “sticky” year over year. That they found no statistically significant decrease in production is demonstrative of that reality.

So, while so many remain optimistic about Etienne’s dynasty outlook, it would be prudent to temper expectations, especially for the upcoming season. His long-term outlook may not be as good as it was when he was drafted 25^th overall in 2021, though there’s little reason to believe that he won’t be active at the start of the season. Additionally, with teammate James Robinson rehabilitating his own very serious injury, with recovery from Achilles injury far less predictable than Lisfranc, the workload for Etienne appears likely to be ample. Additionally, with RBs Rachaad White and Brian Robinson Jr. available when the Jags picked twice in the 3^rd round, the team opted to take an LB and OL instead, tipping their hand regarding their thoughts about their running back room.

There is certainly still a chance that Etienne will return to his pre-injury form, but there’s also a chance we see a diminished performance from the sophomore running back.

I would recommend taking a dart throw at incoming rookie Snoop Conner in the later rounds of drafts, as low acquisition cost RBs in muddled backfields tend to be a good bet. That being said, if you can get a first-round pick for Etienne with perhaps a late-pick kicker, I’d take that trade today. I’d also be willing to trade Etienne for any number of vets going near Etienne in drafts, because it’s hard for me to believe that some fraction of Etienne will produce superior numbers than those vets, especially in 2022. Keep your ear to the ground, if the Jags add a veteran to their backfield in the months leading up to the start of training camp he’d be well worth rostering in most formats.

The post Travis Etienne: Dynasty Outlook appeared first on Pro Football Mania.

By: Emerson Beery

Fantasy football managers have always had a love, hate relationship with their running backs. On one hand, they can absolutely be the most important part of your championship team, but on the other hand, it is the most volatile and injury-prone position available.

Fantasy owners are in a constant scramble to fill in for bye weeks, and injuries which can be the difference in making the playoffs or not in your league. In this article, I will highlight sleepers, outside of the consensus top 30 running backs drafted, who could provide upside going into the 2022 campaign. These are great running backs to draft to back up your top-tier starters, or if you’re taking a zero RB approach and looking for some later-round players with upside.

James Robinson

James Robinson has been one of the more amazing stories in the NFL and fantasy over the last couple of seasons. He went from UDFA to fantasy stud in 2020. He accounted for over 1400 all-purpose yards, and 10 touchdowns on his way to an RB7 finish. After creating high expectations, his 2021 season did not go as expected, however. Robinson was a part of the Urban Meyer disaster, was inexplicably benched multiple times throughout the year, and ultimately tore his Achilles in Week 16 versus the New York Jets.

This was not what fantasy managers foresaw after Travis Etienne went out for the season with a Lisfranc injury over the Summer. After a dip in value as a result of Etienne being drafted, James Robinson vaulted back up fantasy managers rankings after the injury news.

Ultimately, after a hot start to the season, however, and four straight RB1 finishes from Weeks 3-6, Robinson struggled with consistency. This was due to minor injuries, and landing in Urban Meyer’s doghouse midway through the year. His snap percentage only reached over 65% one time week eight onward. He eventually landed on IR with his torn Achilles. Why am I buying at his current dynasty value? I’m willing to throw away the whole last year for the Jaguars as Urban Meyer was one of the worst coaches in NFL history. Each report highlighted a coach that was completely out of his depth and one that was toxic to the locker room. Every Jaguars player deserves a pass for last year, as they couldn’t have been put in a worse position to succeed.

James Robinson’s ADP is also low because of the risk his Achilles tear poses to his 2022 season and the assumption that Etienne will be the lead back. Cam Akers, George Pickens, and other athletes have amazed us with their quick return to the field in recent years. I believe this is becoming more the norm than an anomaly, and I Expect to see James Robinson on the field early in the 2022 season. When he does return, he will still at worst be a heavily involved second RB like Kareem Hunt. We have yet to see Etienne in NFL action though, and there is still a path toward becoming a starter again for the Jaguars. His ADP as a mid-tier RB3 according to most sites is very cheap for a running back of his caliber.

James Conner

It’s hard to be called a sleeper when you just had a top 5 fantasy season for a running back. However, Conner is just that in dynasty leagues with an ADP ranging between RB30-39 according to most sites. I expect this to rise as most of the ADP data has not been updated since his re-signed with the Cardinals. Still, his dynasty value will be hampered by his age (26), and his injury history. Thus creating a buy point for managers despite his breakout season with the Cardinals. Conner was the featured RedZone back throughout the year, amassing 18 total touchdowns. He also showed his receiving ability averaging 4.8 receptions for 53.8 yards in weeks that Chase Edmonds missed due to injury. With Edmonds no longer in the picture, Conner figures to be the bell cow of a high-powered Arizona offense.

When drafting RBs early I look at attributes like age, injury history, and overall talent. Running backs that hit on all these marks are taken ate a premium, and rightfully so as so few meet this criterion. Where Conner is being drafted every running back has significant flaws due to one thing or another. Conner is slightly older and has missed 14 games over the last four seasons due to injury. All these concerns are baked into his cost though as a middling RB3. If I’m a competing dynasty team in 2022, I’m exploring buying Conner at his current cost, particularly from young rebuilding teams that view him as a declining asset. His price is only likely to go up over the Summer so buy now if you have the opportunity.

Chris Carson

Chris Carson has been amazing since taking over the lead Running Back duties for the Seahawks back in 2018. He has compiled three straight top 20 finishes for a back. Additionally, he has averaged over 4.4 yards per carry each of the last 4 years and is still just 27 years old. Carson’s inability to stay on the field however has led to a major dip in his dynasty ranking. Carson finds himself ranked as an RB4 according to most experts, ranked behind the likes of Kahlil Herbert, Chuba Hubbard, and fellow teammate Rashad Penny. Chris Carson’s fantasy ranking suggests that people believe he is going to retire, or that he is the clear #2 back to Rashad Penny. I don’t believe either to be the case and expect Carson to be a large part of this offense.

First, off-season reports suggest that Carson is rehabbing nicely and that he should be back for Summer workouts. This is great news as many feared a serious neck injury was going to put his career in jeopardy. Addressing the second concern, I believe that the fantasy community is coming under a little recency bias due to Penny’s late-season fantasy surge. He was the RB1 over the course of the final five weeks of the season and was the reason many fantasy owners won their championship. Penny scored nearly half of his career fantasy points in the final five weeks of the season. This is mainly due to the fact that Penny has missed 26 games in the last three seasons. Even when healthy, Penny has operated as the clear second back behind Carson. Penny is often injured and has been inconsistent his first four seasons in the NFL. This will provide Carson plenty of opportunities to overtake Penny in Seattle’s backfield. At RB44, Carson is basically free and is far too cheap for a potential starting Running back.

The post 3 RB sleepers in Dynasty appeared first on Pro Football Mania.

By Chris Moore (Twitter: @fantasy_moore)

We are now two weeks into the NFL season, and there have already been fantasy disappointments. Two games out of the fantasy season may be a small sample size. Reacting to how a player performs in their offense is the best way to find success in fantasy football. In this article, we are going to be going over some of the most underperforming fantasy running backs this season and why I think you should be selling them.

Melvin Gordon (RB ”“ DEN)

There will only be a couple of more weeks before Melvin Gordon becomes irrelevant in the fantasy world. Gordon is currently the RB14 in PPR leagues, but his stats from the past two weeks show the Gordon show is coming to an end soon in Denver. If it wasn’t for his 70-yard touchdown in Week 1, Gordon doesn’t even make this list. It’s only a matter of weeks before rookie Javonte Williams takes over the backfield from Gordon in Denver. Williams has already outperformed Gordon. Last week averaging 4.9 yards per carry against the Jaguars compared to Gordon’s 2.38. Sell Gordon while his name and stats over the past two games still hold value. It’s only a matter of time before we see the Javonte Williams show in Denver. Gordon has a lofty resume and an overrated start to the season – now is the time.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire (RB ”“ KC)

Man, this one hurts. As someone very high on Clyde Edwards-Helaire ever since he entered the league, it stings to put him on this list. Yet the truth is, CEH isn’t the fantasy running back managers thought he would be when the Chiefs drafted him. CEH is currently the RB46 in PPR leagues, through two weeks. CEH has struggled so far to start the year, averaging 3.29 yards per carry on 27 attempts. The Chiefs talked about expanding CEH’s role in the passing game this season. But so far, through two games, that hasn’t been the case. CEH has only seen three targets in two games, which is only two targets more than backup running back Jerick McKinnon. Edwards-Helaire isn’t putting up the box score fantasy managers thought he would weekly, and now is the time to get out while his name still holds value.

James Robinson (RB ”“ JAC)

While it was encouraging to see his snap share raise significantly in Week 2, it doesn’t look like we are getting the same fantasy production out of James Robinson this year like we did last year. The Jaguars are an awful team. They have struggled to look competent on offense so far this season. It’s hard to trust Robinson in your lineup if the Jaguars are playing from behind every week. Over the past two week’s that has been the case. Carlos Hyde remains a favorite of Head coach Urban Meyer, and this is just a situation I don’t want any shares. Robinson is currently the RB40 in PPR leagues, and there are better options out there at this point.

The post Fantasy: 3 RBs to trade away appeared first on Pro Football Mania.

By: Andy Davies

The Jacksonville Jaguars will go into the 2021 season with a new head coach. Urban Meyer is the new man to take charge, hoping to be the guy to change the fortunes of a franchise that has struggled for many years. After drafting the best quarterback prospect since Andrew Luck in Trevor Lawrence this year with the number one overall pick, the Jags fans have rarely gone into a season this excited. The Jags have twice gone into a season on the back of reaching an AFC Championship game but with the addition of Urban Meyer and Trevor Lawrence, there is a real buzz around the organization and in the city of Jacksonville. However, Urban Meyer has never coached in the NFL. He is one of the most successful college head coaches of his generation. Can he translate this to the pros?

His Journey As A Player

Meyer was a walk-on in college as a defensive back for the University of Cincinnati, despite initially being drafted by Major League Baseball’s Atlanta Braves in 1982. Injury would deny Meyer the chance to make it as a professional player, but he showed signs of his coaching credentials whilst in college. He would go back to college, heading to Ohio State University where he studied sports administration. He would get a degree at both colleges, earning a bachelor’s degree in psychology at Cincinnati and sports administration at Ohio State, which will have no doubt helped him massively during his time as a football coach.

He may not have made it to the NFL as a player but he showed signs of his credentials as a coach during his time in college. Meyer would often spend additional time in practice, learning how to run them and handle substitutions. These all prepared him for life as a coach. As a player, he was part of a Cincinnati team that finished 2-9, with Meyer saying that it “wasn’t a great experience. We weren’t very good”. This will help him be prepared for a Jaguars team that won just one game in 2020. His former coach in Cincinnati David Currey spoke of his coaching abilities.

“He was not a great player but you could tell he would coach for a living. He was a student of the game, always trying to learn about things”.

The Start Of Meyer’s Coaching Career

He started his coaching career in 1985 as a defensive backs coach for St Xavier High School in Ohio before becoming a graduate assistant for two seasons with Ohio State. He spent two years with Illinois State as an outside linebackers coach in 1988 and a quarterback and wide receivers coach in 1989. He would then spend eleven years as a wide receivers coach, spending six with Colorado State and then five with Notre Dame before getting his first head coaching job in 2001 with Bowling Green.

The Early Stages Of His Time As A Head Coach In College

Meyer only spent two seasons with Bowling Green but would leave the team with a 17-6 record in charge. Highlights of his time there was the 56-21 win over rivals, the University of Toledo Rockets. Whilst with Bowling Green, he transformer their fortunes. He joined with the team having gone 2-9 in 2000 to then go 8-3 in 2001 and 9-3 in 2002, before leaving for the University of Utah.

Utah hired Meyer and was an instant success, going 10-2 and winning the Liberty Bowl in 2003. They would go 12-0 and win the Fiesta Bowl in 2004. Whilst with the university, he coached safety Eric Weddle and quarterback Alex Smith, who went on to be the number one overall pick in the 2005 NFL Draft. Smith would become an inspiration to everyone when he went on to win NFL Comeback Player of the Year during the 2020 season, returning the field after a life threatening injury in 2018.

Meyer openly claimed that he “made Utah competitive” during his time there. Morgan Scalley played as a defensive back under Meyer at Utah before going on to become a defensive coordinator with the college. He spoke of how Meyer changed everything.

“You could tell it would be different from the first session at the weight room. I never had butterflies going into a weight room and that had me going”.

Success With Florida and Ohio State

The Florida Gators then came calling in 2005, where Meyer would spend the next six seasons. He would coach notable players such as Cam Newton, Carlos Dunlap, Janoris Jenkins, Maurkice and Mike Pouncey, Tim Tebow and Trey Burton during his time in Florida as head coach. With an overall record 65-15 with the Gators, Meyer won Florida the Outback Bowl and the Sugar Bowl as well as winning two National Championships. He had a 5-1 record with Florida in Bowl games. Following a health scare, Meyer decided to leave the Gators after the 2010 seasons as he wanted to put focus on his family and “life away from the field”.

He soon returned to college football, becoming Ohio State head coach two seasons later. During his time with the team, he had an 83-9 record. He won one National Championship as well as a Sugar Bowl, Cotton Bowl and Fiesta Bowl. His time there sadly ended in controversy, before leaving in 2018 due to health reasons. He spent time as a television analyst before accepting the Jacksonville head coaching position in January 2021.

His Coaching Style & The Spread Offense

Meyer is seen as someone who is competitive, fiery and resolute. His “juice” is said to fire his teams up, with his infectious personality an integral part of his head coaching success. During his time as an analyst, he often went through a breakdown of offensive systems, with one component of his style of coaching being his Spread Offense.

This is a scheme which features four receivers, resulting in the opposition defense attempting to cover these players. This system allows the run game to excel, with RPO and read option plays often used under this style of offense. In a modern day NFL, we are seeing plenty of college schemes being brought into the league. Meyer will look to bring this style of coaching into the NFL that worked so well for him in college.

Can He Transform The Jaguars?

This is not going to be an easy task for Meyer but as he showed in Utah, he is capable of turning a team around. Jacksonville has the talent on their roster but have never seemed to fulfil their potential. One of their aforementioned trips to the AFC Championship was in the 2017 season. Their defense named ‘Sacksonville” played a big part in their journey, where they had a ten point lead and were nine minutes away from reaching the Super Bowl. They would end up losing 24-20 in agonizing fashion.

The components of Sacksonville would slowly fall apart. Jalen Ramsey, Malik Jackson and Yannick Ngakoue all left in 2019, with both A.J. Bouye and Calais Campbell leaving in 2020. Quarterback Blake Bortles was seen as the player holding back the team, being released in March 2019 as the Jaguars looked to Nick Foles, who won Super Bowl 52 MVP just a year earlier. He was seen as the missing piece in the jigsaw but only lasted one season in a disappointing spell with the franchise.

Head coach Doug Marrone guided Jacksonville to the AFC Championship and a 10-6 record in his first full season as head coach of the franchise. Despite this, he couldn’t guide them to more than six wins in any of the three seasons that followed before being fired in January 2021. Issues off the field started to develop, with the players arrested on their annual trip to London in 2018 after an unpaid £50,000 drinks bill. Meyer won’t stand for any negative behaviour with his aforementioned fiery, competitive and infectious personality is likely to keep the players in check.

And then of course, there is Lawrence. One of the best college prospects in many years, he brings a lot of expectation with Jags fans pinning their hopes on him being the man to bring the good times to this franchise. He had not lost a regular season game since high school and reached the National Championship in two of his three seasons with the Clemson Tigers, winning one of those two.

He played 40 games in college and threw for 758 out of his 1,138 throws, giving him a 66.6 completion percentage. Across his time with Clemson, he threw for 90 touchdowns and 10,098 yards. Jacksonville have a real talent on their hands and they need to do everything they can to ensure he fulfils his tremendous potential.

Along with Lawrence, they have reunited their number one overall pick with his Clemson team-mate in running back Travis Etienne, who recorded 70 rushing touchdowns and 4,952 rushing yards during his four seasons in the ACC. He will join a running back room alongside James Robinson, who impressed highly in 2020 during his rookie year with 1,070 rushing yards and 7 touchdowns. Etienne is said to also be working out as a receiver, which gives variety to the offensive side of the ball. Former Detroit Lions wideout Marvin Jones has joined the team via Free Agency to add depth to a wide receiver room already including DJ Chark Jr and Laviska Shenault Jr. Second-round pick Tyson Campbell gives depth to the Jaguars secondary, as will 65th overall pick Andre Cisco. 45th overall selection Walker Little will add protection to the Jags offensive line. Myles Jack is a survivor from the Sacksonville era and alongside fellow linebacker Josh Allen, they have the potential to cause problems for the opposition.

Jacksonville have a long rebuild ahead and fans should not expect an immediate transformation. Doubts remain over new Indianapolis Colts quarterback Carson Wentz and whether he can get back to his 2017 form. The Tennessee Titans’ defense is seen as their Achilles heels and the Houston Texans are a mess. They will likely see their quarterback Deshaun Watson leave, which will result in years of struggles and mediocrity. This is not the toughest division in the NFL and the Jags will want to capitalise on this, but the improvement will likely be in either year 2, 3 or 4 of the Urban Meyer Jacksonville era.

The post Urban Meyer’s career so far: can he transform the Jaguars? appeared first on Pro Football Mania.