Cleveland Browns @ Houston Texans +2.5 (Saturday 4:30 PM EST on NBC)

Our first matchup of the weekend features two teams that many of us didn’t think would be here. The Browns have shuffled through 5 starting quarterbacks this season yet managed to finish an impressive 11-6. That is in large part due to their dominating defense which finished #1 in total team defense allowing just 270.2 yards per game.

The Texans meanwhile are playing with house money and are led by their star rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud. Stroud continues his strong rookie campaign where threw for 4000+ yards, 23 touchdowns and just 5 interceptions. The lack of turnovers was the most glaring stat as Stroud plays with the poise of a seasoned vet.

This game will come down to the wire and will be low-scoring. Expect Stroud to do just enough to pull off the upset at home and continue the Texans surprising season.

Game Pick: Texans 21 – Browns 14

Miami Dolphins @ Kansas City Chiefs -4.5 (Saturday 8:00 PM EST on Peacock)

Next up on Saturday night, we have a banged-up Dolphins team taking on the Chiefs in chilly Arrowhead. The weather will absolutely play a part in this matchup as temperatures as expected to be in the single digits come kickoff. Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs are somewhat flying under the radar but you can’t count out Andy Reid and Mahomes in the playoffs.

Miami has been struggling lately as they come in losers of 2 straight. The Dolphins offense has come back down to earth a bit and is hoping star receiver Jaylen Waddle can return as he has been missed.

It’s hard to see the Dolphins coming out victorious in this one. Miami hasn’t been a good cold-weather team as Tua Tagovailoa has struggled in these types of games. Mahomes and the Chiefs move on setting up an intriguing Divisional round matchup.

Game Pick: Chiefs 24- Dolphins 16

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Buffalo Bills -10 (Sunday 1:00 PM EST on CBS/Paramount+)

Our first Sunday game features the red-hot Bills vs. the Steelers. The Bills wrapped up the AFC East title last week in Miami and are starting to look dangerous. This will also be a cold weather game with temperatures expected to be in the low 20s.

Pittsburgh is a heavy underdog in this matchup and rightfully so. They will be without their defensive star T.J. Watt who went down last week with a knee injury. Quarterback Mason Rudolph is set to start and he will have his hands full with this Buffalo defense.

This is a tough matchup for Mike Tomlin and the Steelers. They certainly weren’t expected to be here but just don’t have enough firepower to hang with the Bills. Look for a late backdoor cover for the Steelers in this one.

Game Pick: Bills 27 – Steelers 20

Green Bay Packers @ Dallas Cowboys -7.5 (Sunday 4:30 PM EST on FOX)

The first NFC matchup of the weekend will be in Dallas where the NFC East champions take on the surprising Packers. Dallas has been dominant at home where they posted a perfect 8-0 record. Most of those games haven’t been close with the exception of the Lions game that featured the controversial 2-point conversion.

Jordan Love and the Packers will be playing with nothing to lose as they were expected to have a down year in Love’s first year under center. It has been anything but that and Love has shown he can be the quarterback of the future in Green Bay.

The playoff atmosphere is different and with the lights on I think the Cowboys come out flat. They will eventually find their groove but expect the Packers to hang around until the end.

Game Pick: Cowboys 31 – Packers 24

Los Angeles Rams @ Detroit Lions -3 (Sunday 8:00 PM EST on NBC)

In the Sunday nightcap, we have the Matthew Stafford Bowl in Detroit. To me, this is the best game of the weekend with so many storylines to explore. Along with Stafford coming back to Detroit you also have Jared Goff looking for revenge against the team that gave up on him.

You have to be impressed with what Dan Campbell did for the Lions this season. Not only did they capture their first-ever NFC North title but they have turned this once lowly franchise into one of the best teams in the league. The Lions also feature one of the most coveted head coaching candidates in Ben Johnson. Johnson is the next great offensive mind and it looks like this is the year he becomes a head coach.

The Rams come into Detroit with confidence as they are winners of 4 straight. They are led by impressive rookie Puka Nacua and Kyren Williams who both look to be late-round steals. While I do think the Rams will hang around for most of the game Detroit will be too much at home in this one.

Game Pick: Lions 28 – Rams 21

Philadelphia Eagles @ Tampa Bay Bucs +3 (Monday 8:15 PM EST on ABC/ESPN)

Finally, we end Wild Card weekend with a Monday night showdown in Tampa Bay. The Eagles, who were once favorites to win the NFC come in losing 5 of their last 6 games. They have key injuries on both sides of the ball but their defense has let this team down all year.

The Bucs are another one of the surprising teams to make the playoffs. It was supposed to be a rebuilding year in Tampa but they were able to sneak into the playoffs thanks to the lowly NFC South. They now get a home playoff game and will look to avenge a week 3 loss against the Eagles.

This game comes down to who is the healthier team and right now that’s Tampa Bay. A.J. Brown has a knee injury and is not practicing while quarterback Jalen Hurts has a sprained middle finger on his throwing hand. Philadelphia is reeling and this game will put an end to a season that had so much promise.

Game Pick: Bucs 24 – Eagles 14

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Things to look for: After struggling Week 1 against the Jets, the Bills seems to be running on all their cylinders as they battle the Dolphins this week. Granted they played the Commanders who seems to have issues on both sides of the ball. Miami is an offensive juggernaut right now who seem unstoppable. They have all the weapons and even without Jaylen Waddle they will be hard to beat. I think in this game they come back to earth, with Tua Tagovailoa under a lot of pressure.

Who has the edge: Many people will overreact after last weeks dominant win and say Dolphins all the way. Let’s pump the brakes on that one as playing in Buffalo, even in the Fall is very difficult. This game has 34-31 in OT written all over it as both teams can put up a lot of points. What do the Bills plan to do with Tyreek Hill who they have experience playing against both with the Dolphins and Chiefs. They can’t give up the big play and somehow force Miami to run with Raheem Mostert. This will play into their strength of a solid run defense. For Buffalo, they will need to put up points and force a few turnovers from Tua.

Prediction: Buffalo 34 Miami 31 in OT

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The Good

When the Dolphins traded for Tyreek Hill they gave up a boatload of draft picks. It was a bit of a risk for Miami as they mortgaged their future to win now. The aggressiveness of the Dolphins front office makes sense. They are looking to capitalize on Tagovailoa’s rookie contract and surround him with weapons. Hill pretty much exceeded all expectations in his first season for Miami. He racked up 1,710 receiving yards and 8 total touchdowns. Hill and fellow WR Jaylen Waddle have quickly become one of the best receiving duos in the NFL. You can expect similar numbers in 2023 for Hill and Waddle as they continue to grow together.

The Bad

If you’re looking for a weakness on this Dolphins roster it has to be at the tight end position. Mike Gesicki is no longer with the team as Miami has decided to invest in other positions on offense. It makes sense for the most part. Head coach Mike McDainel has stated in the past that the TE position is not a big part of their offense. While I agree to a point, having an elite TE can open up an offense even more. Think of what Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews have done to their offensive units. Teams will focus their defense more on the outside instead of having to cover the middle which a good TE would occupy.

To no fault of their own, the Dolphins will be thin at the cornerback position until Jalen Ramsey returns. The aggressiveness I touched on earlier by the front office landed the Dolphins Ramsey this offseason. Having Ramsey opposite Xavien Howard will give Miami two lock-down cornerbacks. The hope is for Ramsey to return from injury later this year and hopefully in time for the playoffs. In the meantime, CB Kader Kohou will need to step up for Miami but there are concerns there.

The Prediction

I’m expecting the Miami Dolphins to battle it out with the Buffalo Bills for the AFC East title. In the end, the Dolphins will fall just short of the Division but will secure a wild-card berth. This is a big year for Tua Tagovailoa. If he does well, expect a contract extension. If not the Dolphins will likely be looking for a new quarterback next year.

2023 Record: 10-7 (2nd in the Division)

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When it’s all said and done, Justin Jefferson could be one of the best wide receivers the NFL has ever seen. Jefferson is only 23 and is already a 3x Pro Bowler and 1x All-Pro. He continues to get better each year despite getting double-covered regularly and blanketed by every NFL defense. In his first 3 seasons, he has given us incredible highlights including a one-handed catch for the ages in a critical situation.

When Jefferson was drafted in the 1st round by the Minnesota Vikings it wasn’t a big surprise. If you watched the potent LSU offense you saw a star in the making. Although raw, Jefferson showed outstanding ball skills and would catch just about everything thrown his way. During his final year in College, he lined up primarily in the slot and there were questions on if he could excel in the outside role. It’s safe to say that those questions can already be put to rest as it doesn’t matter where Jefferson is lined up. He has shown he will consistently win in any position.

Miami Dolphins wide receiver Tyreek Hill recently claimed that he would break the single-season receiving yards record. While Hill is talented and very well could come close, it will instead be Justin Jefferson who does it. The Dolphins also have Jaylen Waddle and he will account for a good amount of the target share. Before we look ahead at how Justin Jefferson will break the receiving record, let’s first dive into his stats.

Justin Jefferson Stats

It’s hard not to be in awe when looking at Justin Jefferson’s receiving stats. In 2022 alone, he was first in total receptions (128), first in First Downs Receiving (80) and second in Yards Before Catch (1,185). Jefferson also had a drop rate of only 2.7% which is impressive given the number of targets that went his way (184). His 1,809 receiving yards in 2022 was good for 6th all-time. Jefferson was on pace to break the record last year but was uncharacteristically quiet in his final two games. He had only 5 catches for 53 yards during that span with 0 touchdowns.

Next, I want to take a look at comparing Justin Jefferson to the best wide receiver of all time, Jerry Rice. I took the overall stats from both of their first 3 seasons and here is what I found.

• Jefferson had 124 more receptions than Rice (324 vs 200)
• Jefferson also had 1,250 more receiving yards than Rice (4,825 vs 3,575)
• Rice had 15 more touchdowns than Jefferson (40 vs 25)

As you can see the numbers are similar given that Rice played in 6 less games than Jefferson in his first three seasons. The 40 touchdowns by Rice in that span is the second most all-time just behind Randy Moss who had 43. It’s still too early to put Jefferson in the class of the greats but you can see where the stats are trending.

How Justin Jefferson Will Break the Record

So far, we’ve recapped Jefferson’s first three seasons and broke down some key statistics vs the greats. Now let’s point out how he will break the single-season receiving record in 2023.

Next season, the Minnesota Vikings have a fairly manageable schedule. They are in the middle of the pack in terms of strength of schedule. While NFL teams’ success can change drastically from year to year, I expect the Vikings to finish first in the NFC North. The Chicago Bears and Detroit Lions finished towards the bottom in NFL total team defense last year and I expect the Packers defense will take a step back.

Putting the schedule aside, I project that Jefferson will finish the year with 2,015 receiving yards. If you look at the stats above, Jefferson has averaged around +200 yards each season and +20 receptions.

The Vikings also drafted Jordan Addison in the first round of the 2023 NFL Draft. While some will say this is going to take away from Jefferson’s production, I am going in the opposite direction. This will only help Jefferson as some of the defensive attention will now be off him with an additional weapon on the field. With that said, I expect Justin Jefferson to break the single-season receiving yards record in 2023 and I can’t wait to watch him do it.

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AFC East

The AFC East is mighty tough this year and it starts with each quarterback leading their respective teams. Let’s start with the Buffalo Bills, who in my eyes, are the favorites. Josh Allen is the best Quarterback and has the best supporting cast. They have come so close the last few years and is this the year they get over the hump. Then you have the Miami Dolphins. Last year they showed flashes of how good they can be with their two track stars Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. The issue I have with the Dolphins is the health of their QB Tua Tuagovlaia. If he can play 17 games, he gives them a chance to win the AFC East. And the Jets who with Aaron Rodgers and his supporting cast look great on paper. The Jets brought back receivers Rodgers is familiar with, and along with a solid D should be in the running to win the division.

Each of those three teams could easily see between 9 and 11 wins this season, with the Bills being maybe 12-5. Finally, you have the Patriots who you can never count out. As long as Bill Belichick is at the helm they will always be a solid team. Did they do enough this offseason? Can they play with the other teams? These are the questions to be answered, but if there the worse team in this division, what’s that say?

AFC West

Now let’s look at the AFC West led by the Kansas City Chiefs. The Chiefs will always be in the running with Patrick Mahomes leading that team. You have the Chargers and Justin Herbert who, with their solid defense will give the Chiefs a run for the money. And then you have the Raiders and Broncos. These teams I don’t completely trust with questions like will Russell Wilson improve from his dreadful last season. It’s definitely possible especially with Sean Payton now the head coach. Even with the Chiefs in that Division I have the AFC West as third best in the National Football League.

AFC North

Finally, the AFC North. After Lamar Jackson decided to work with Baltimore Ravens and come back I have them definitely in contention. They have a great team around Lamar and if he can stay healthy they will be a force to be reckoned with. I think they need another big time receiver, maybe Deandre Hopkins? With J.K. Dobbins coming back they will be hard to stop. Of course, we also have the Cincinnati Bengals, who came oh so close to beating the Chiefs if it wasn’t for a really bad penalty on the Bengals lineman. Joe Burrow has proved he’s a big game player who doesn’t get rattled. And then the two other teams the Cleveland Browns and Pittsburgh Steelers. These teams will probably hover around .500 perhaps a little above or below. I have concerns with each of those teams quarterbacks.

Cue the drum roll………… The best division in the National Football League this year is the AFC East. Like I said earlier, they all have a chance to be at least 10-7 with a few of those teams more like 11-6 or 12-5. They will probably beat up on each other which will make them a better team when they start the playoffs. Rodgers has a chip on his shoulder this year with a lot to prove. We know what we get from Josh Allen and Tua (when healthy) and I think we’ll see Mac Jones improve from last year. This year should be exciting, and based on the above it’s clear the AFC is superior to the NFC.

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By: Christian Esparza

1. Tee Higgins ”“ Cincinnati Bengals (WR 11, ADP 32)

Higgins finished 2021 as WR24 overall, bolstered by a 43.4 performance in week 16 against a decimated Ravens secondary. Higgins is a good wide receiver, don’t get me wrong. But for him to be drafted as WR11 feels incredibly rich. There is no sense in drafting someone this high who is not even the WR1 on his own team. 

2. Jaylen Waddle ”“ Miami Dolphins (WR 16, ADP 44)

Waddle put together a sneaky-good rookie season last year in which he averaged over 15 ppr points per game. Especially through his mid-season tear, Waddle was a true weapon for Miami. Things look a lot different for Waddle with the Dolphins having traded for Tyreek Hill, a player who does a lot of the same things Waddle does. To make matters worse, Miami’s new head coach Mike McDaniel will be implementing his offense from last year’s 49ers team. That scheme saw San Francisco pass the ball on just 51% of their plays ”“ 29th in the league. It’s hard to imagine the Dolphins supporting two top-20 receivers with this type of offense, especially with Tua Tagovailoa at quarterback. 

3. DK Metcalf ”“ Seattle Seahawks (WR 19, ADP 51.5)

Does this one really depend on who takes the starting snaps in Week 1, Geno Smith or Drew Lock? The funny thing is, Metcalf actually had his best stretch of games when Smith was under center last year replacing an injured Russell Wilson. Over those four games, Metcalf averaged over 19 points per game. Lock of course comes in from the Denver Broncos, where he has notoriously struggled the past two seasons. But again, we don’t know who is going to be Seattle’s starting quarterback. If things were that easy, Head Coach Pete Carroll would have committed to someone by now with Week 1 less than two weeks away. Instead, Carroll commented that he does not feel the need to name a starter, even by the team’s final preseason game on Friday, Aug. 26. The bottom line is: be careful with DK Metcalf. 

4. Chris Godwin ”“ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (WR 25, ADP 71)

As noted in an earlier article, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers feel weird this year. Quarterback Tom Brady just returned from an 11-day absence that was revealed to be a pre-planned vacation to the Bahamas with his family. This means the Bucs had to go throughout a large chunk of their camp without QB1. As far as Godwin goes, he is recovering from a torn ACL suffered in January. Although things are looking good for Godwin to be back on the field by the start of the regular season, Godwin will not be 100%. Simply due to the nature of the injury, it may take an additional season for Godwin to truly return to form. There is a very good chance he does not finish the season as a top-24 receiver. 

5. Kenny Golladay ”“ New York Giants (WR 53, ADP 141)

Since signing a four-year, $72 million dollar contract in 2021, Golladay has been one of the biggest disappointments in the NFL. Golladay didn’t even crack 90 total fantasy points last year as he just did not seem to fit in with the New York Giants and quarterback Daniel Jones. That seems to be the case again this year, as reports out of training camp make it sound like Golladay has been less than impressive. He is listed as a starting wide receiver on the depth chart, but that could change as the season goes on. At his ADP, you would have much better luck taking a swing on an impressive rookie like George Pickens or Romeo Doubs. 

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By: Jake Rajala

The Miami Dolphins arguably have the most explosive WR tandem in the league. Tua Tagovailoa will gratefully develop with the precious armory in Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle in 2022.

Hill has already felt a positive vibe with his quarterback. Per PFT, Hill believes that Tua has better accuracy than his previous QB Patrick Mahomes. It’s obvious that the former Alabama QB will have more bliss and effort in each long bomb directed at the former Chiefs wideout moving forward.

Hill wasn’t a quality WR as a rookie, but he did make the All-Pro team as a special teamer. Afterward, Hill had five straight Pro Bowl seasons at the WR position (including All-Pro honors in 2018 and 2020). His best season in receiving yards was 2018: 1,479 yds. Flash also recorded a career-high 15 touchdowns in 2020.

His WR partner is coming off a spectacular rookie campaign: 104 receptions, 1,015 yds, and 6 touchdowns. Waddle should really blossom with excellent match-ups as the WR2 deep down the field and with screens. He recorded a 78.3 grade by PFF last season. Fantasy Pros also ranks Waddle as the 12th best WR in dynasty PPR (one spot after Hill).

The Dolphins WR3 Cedrick Wilson may lose his sleeper tag by the mid-point of the upcoming season. He is coming off his best season in 2021 (45 receptions, 602 yds, and 6 touchdowns). Dolphins Wire noted how Wilson had an average yards after reception of 5.6 last season – which ranked ahead of Hill (4.0) and Waddle (4.2) in that department. Wilson will also have a strong role in the slot. PFF outlined that he had 90% of his snaps from the slot, so he should have plenty of opportunities next to the Dolphins big two WRs.

The Dolphins had the 18th-best passing offense last season, but Tua is really primed to steer the Dolphins into an offensive juggernaut while being one of the most underrated AFC QBs.

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By: Jeremy Trottier

The Miami Dolphins have become one of the more impressive teams over the course of this offseason by signing back their core free agents while bringing in new pieces to supplement the roster.  With this, they have pushed themselves into definite contention for the playoffs, and into a potential shot at the AFC East title this season.  In this article, I will cover 3 reasons why the Dolphins could win the division, as well as how they each impact their chances.

Tyreek Hill

The most blatant and recent reason as to why the Dolphins could take the division is the cheetah himself, Tyreek Hill.  There is simply no receivers in the game that are like him, and there are even fewer secondaries that can stop him.  His speed is what he is most known for as we all know, but his route running capabilities and his shiftiness allow him to get open in instances where his speed cannot. 

Did the Dolphins have to spend a lot of picks to get him?  Yes.  However, over the course of the next 5 years, this move pushes the Dolphins up to a deep playoff-caliber team simply put. 

Playmakers, both returning and incoming

Ok so we have talked about Tyreek, but lets talk about the rest of this star studded offense.  The Dolphins have rookie standout receiver Jaylen Waddle alongside Hill, as well as receiving tight end Mike Gesicki, both of whom return for 2022.  On top of that, their running game is getting better as well, with the addition of Chase Edmonds, as well as Myles Gaskin still on the team.

On top of all this, the Dolphins added a premier left tackle in Terron Armstead, who if he can avoid injury will be an amazing addition to protect Tua Tagovailoa.  While many have criticized Tua in recent months, with this amount of weapons, and some true protection on the OL, odds are he will be able to produce.

Division is in question

The final reason the Dolphins could take the AFC east, is well, the division itself.  Obviously the Bills have not lost a lot of talent, and rather added it with Von Miller.  However, the New England Patriots really have not exponentially improved this offseason, and still lack true playmakers on the offense to help out Mac Jones.  Then the Jets, who while they seem to be on the upturn, still have a lot of work to do to get up to the playoffs.

That leaves Miami and Buffalo, which is somewhat up in the air depending on how the remainder of their offseasons go.  Each team has a few holes, Buffalo being CB2 and the defensive interior (due to free agents), and Miami being IOL as well as linebacker.  Both teams have exceptional firepower, so Miami should definitely be in the top of the AFC East this coming season. 

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By: Jake Rajala

The chill Mike McDaniel took an extra espresso this morning and made a bold trade to acquire Tyreek Hill from the Kansas City Chiefs. The Dolphins also gave Hill a 4-year, $120 million dollar contract extension. Meanwhile, the Kansas City Chiefs received the Dolphins 29th overall pick in the upcoming draft, a 2022 second-round pick, a 2022 fourth-round pick, a fourth-round pick in the 2023 draft, and a sixth-round pick in the 2023 draft.

The Dolphins will truly have a star playmaker in Hill, who will be in the same WR unit as Jaylen Waddle and DeVante Parker. McDaniel clearly wanted to come out balls to the wall in his first offseason in Miami. His impressive acquisition comes a day after they signed the premier left tackle Terron Armstead in free agency.

The Dolphins are putting together a scary roster, but they are also placing a lot of hope on Tua Tagovailoa. It’s possible to have a talented QB carry an offense with mediocre weaponry, but unlimited firepower can’t make an average passer consistently superb and clutch in 2-minute situations.

Hill may be a gifted talent, but the Chiefs clearly feel comfortable letting him walk out of the building. They still feel like they have excellent playmakers surrounding Mahomes, such as the newly acquired JuJu Smith-Schuster and Travis Kelce. They will also lean on the 26-year-old Mahomes improving his all-around craft without his former deep-threat wideout.

The ultimate question arises after the Hill trade has been completed: which team won the trade? Well, here are the grades that I believe each squad deserves:

Miami Dolphins: B-

The Dolphins will likely be a playoff contender for the next few seasons at least, but I’m not sure that Hill was worth the bank. They have a terrific WR duo in Waddle and Parker, plus I don’t know if Tua is the type of QB that will properly utilize all three WRs to at least near their full potential. He doesn’t exactly strike me as the prime Peyton Manning on the Denver Broncos or the 2021 Joe Burrow with Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Tyler Boyd.

I still have a ton of confidence in McDaniel and I believe he can be a mad genius with Hill in his offense. I expect Hill to get many screens, jet sweeps, and deep shots down the field. He will bring a boost to their offense, but I’m not convinced the Dolphins will have an elite offense and I believe they struggle at having the money to add many other quality pieces to their squad in 2022, 2023, and 2024.

Kansas City Chiefs: D

I believe the Chiefs made a brutal mistake in allowing Hill to leave their offense. Hill may not be a final championship piece on the Dolphins and nearly every other potential trade suitor, but he was a big part of their opportunity to win more Super Bowl trophies with Mahomes.

The Chiefs saved money by signing JuJu and letting Hill walk, but they should have had a better plan to keep Hill. He’s an enormous reason why the Chiefs were able to have miraculous comebacks in each 2020 playoff content. Over the past few seasons, the Chiefs arguably whiffed on the draft selection of Clyde Edwards-Helaire and they allowed Hill to leave the building.

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By: Jeremy Trottier

In 2021, we got to see the rookie campaigns of three separate receivers from the top 10 picks in the draft, Ja’Marr Chase (pick #5), Jaylen Waddle (pick #6), and DeVonta Smith (pick #10).  While Chase was proven to be an elite player and has shown he is a top 10 receiver, Waddle and Smith battled it out for second best WR in the class.  This has created a discussion to be had among NFL fans, which of these two receivers has the brighter outlook for the rest of their career?

The way I will go about finding out will include the following:

• 2021 performance (both eye test and statistically)
• Team outlook (is the QB situation good?  Do they have room to grow into bigger roles?)
• Utilization (were they utilized correctly, and if not will they be in the future?)

Jaylen Waddle ”“ Miami Dolphins

First up, we have Jaylen Waddle, as previously mentioned the 6^th overall pick in the 2021 class.  Waddle has been absolutely phenomenal so far after his rookie season and has shown to be a reliable starter for the Dolphins, and presumably WR1 with DeVante Parker losing some snaps comparatively. 

In terms of 2021 performance, Waddle had a very good rookie season.  He accrued the following stats last season:

• 16 games played (all 16 started) taking 83% of snaps on offense
• 104 receptions on 140 targets (74.3% catch rate)
• 1015 receiving yards, 6 receiving touchdowns (7 scrimmage touchdowns)
• 2 fumbles, 8 drops, 4 broken tackles, and 7 interceptions when targeted

Overall, for a rookie, this is a great stat line to be working with and shows promise for improvement as well, as he works on minimizing drops and fumbles.  In terms of team outlook, Tua Tagovailoa has been somewhat on and off in his NFL career so far, however having the Alabama connection again between these two bodes well for Waddle’s outlook.  Waddle was utilized well by the Dolphins, becoming their primary receiver nearly overnight, and took no time taking all the snaps he could. 

DeVonta Smith ”“ Philadelphia Eagles

Secondly, we have the #10 overall pick from the 2021 class in DeVonta Smith.  Smith has also been great in his career so far and has proved to be a very valuable asset for an Eagles offense that has struggled to find reliable receivers.  Smith is easily the WR1 at the moment for Philly, as he has been most of if not all of the season considering his capabilities outside. 

For the 2021 season, Smith produced slightly less so than Waddle, however, he had a better handle on the ball at times and did not have as many drops:

• 17 games played (16 started) taking 82% of snaps on offense
• 64 receptions on 104 targets (61.5% catch rate)
• 916 receiving yards, 5 receiving touchdowns (5 scrimmage touchdowns)
• 1 fumble, 2 drops, 2 broken tackles, and 1 interception when targeted

As a whole Smith has been a great rookie as well, and will only improve as the Eagles utilize him more and can get Jalen Hurts on the same page.  As mentioned with Waddle and Tua, Smith and Hurts also played together at Alabama, mostly so in 2018, where they connected quite a bit statistically.  Smith’s upside will heavily depend on ball placement from Hurts, as we can see Smith only dropped 2 passes but had a significantly lower catch rate than Waddle, which partially is attributed to his targets being passes out of reach. 

Who has the better outlook?

In my opinion, as of right now, Waddle projects better for the future.  The main factors for this are that he led in nearly every statistical category other than fumbles, drops, and interceptions when targeted.  Another factor to consider is that Tua seemingly at the very least is more accurate with the ball than Hurts, completing 6.5% more passes in 2021.  Granted, Tua has better weapons in Waddle, Parker, Mike Gesicki comparatively to Smith, Reagor, and Dallas Goedert. 

With that said, I believe both of these players will be extremely talented for years to come, and both of them will create offense for their respective teams. 

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