Caleb Williams to Chicago

After the block buster move to send Justin Fields to Pittsburgh, it’s more clear than ever that Caleb Williams will be the guy in Chicago. In years past, this would be considered a bad situation to go to, but with one of the best WR duos in the league (Keenan Allen and D.J. Moore) the pressure is on for Williams to perform. Williams is the most NFL ready QB and the clear #1 prospect in this draft.

Drake Maye to Washington.

Drake Maye is one of my favorite prospects in the draft. His big arm and big production makes him a Josh-Allen esque talent. More teams everyday are taking a chances on big talent big risk guys after seeing how well it has worked out. Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson should produce very well for Maye.

The only downside to his game is the turnovers, 9 INT’s and 4 particularly in the last 3 games of 2023 is definitely concerning, but it would be criminal to pass on him at 2. 

Marvin Harrison Jr. to the Patriots.

Marvin Harrison is probably the best non-QB prospect in this draft. The patriots having many holes to fill in this roster should just take the best player available. The route of going QB is interesting but the question remains if you want to throw a rookie QB into a bad situation so early on. 

Malik Nabers to the Cardinals

Nabers would be an electric addition to the WR-needy Cardinals. Kyler Murray’s production would skyrocket with Nabers and could seriously upgrade the Cardinals offensively, the option of trading down always remains of course, but going with Nabers seems like the smart choice.

Jayden Daniels to the Vikings (Trade)

Here is the blockbuster trade of the evening, Minnesota trades up 6 places to grab their franchise guy at 5. Daniels had a career year at LSU winning the Heisman and skyrocketing his draft value. Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison and Daniels have the potential to be the best offense in the league and would make this a crazy good pick.

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The Good

Wide receiver Justin Jefferson has quickly become one of the best receivers in the NFL. The former LSU Tiger has taken the league by storm and is on pace for a record-breaking career. Jefferson was close to breaking the single-season receiving yards record last year when he racked up 1,809 yards. This season I expect Jefferson to in fact break that record with 2,015 receiving yards. The addition of rookie Jordan Addison will help open up space for Jefferson and allow him to do more damage.

Beyond adding Addison the Vikings also invested in the tight end position by trading for T.J. Hockenson last year. Hockenson wasted no time making his mark on the Vikings offense as he hauled in 9 receptions in his Minnesota debut. He also reset the tight end market with a record-setting 4-year $66 million contract extension that he signed last week. It shows that the Vikings are invested in him long term and rightfully so. Hockenson has quickly become a top 5 tight end in the NFL.

The Bad

For as good as the Vikings offense was last year the defense was the exact opposite. The defense struggled all year long and it eventually led to the firing of defensive coordinator Ed Donatell. The Vikings will now look to former Miami Dolphins coach Brian Flores to rebuild the unit. Flores has a track record of getting the most from his defenses but Vikings fans should be patient. While I expect improvement in 2023, it’s going to take a couple of years for this defense to be formidable again.

The Prediction

Looking ahead to next season I expect some regression for this Vikings team. The offense will once again be explosive but the Vikings had several wins last year that could’ve gone either way. Sill Minnesota will battle for a wild-card berth and could make some noise once the playoffs start.

2023 Record: 10-7 (2nd in the Division)

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Before we look at next season, let’s take a look at the NFL target leaders from 2022. In the table below are the top 5 leaders in targets from last year. The first four finished in the same exact order in terms of total fantasy points amongst wide receivers (Half PPR). The only anomaly was A.J. Brown who jumped CeeDee Lamb and finished 5th in total fantasy points. Brown finished with 2 more touchdowns and 137 more yards.

2022 NFL Target Leaders

Predicting the Target Leaders for 2023-2024

Looking ahead to next season we can almost guarantee the top 5 target leaders will look different. For instance, in 2021 Cooper Kupp was the NFL target leader by a large margin +22. As we know Kupp suffered a serious ankle injury that cut his 2022 season short. Injuries aren’t the only factor to consider. Quarterback changes, coaching changes, free agency and the NFL Draft are all factors. Let’s now look at who I predict will be the NFL target leaders for next season.

2023 NFL Target Leaders (Projected)

Justin Jefferson will once again be the king of targets. I slotted his targets down but only slightly. This is due to the Minnesota Vikings adding Jordan Addison in the draft. It will take some time to get Addison up to speed but once he’s ready he should be productive in this offense. Also, keep in mind that Adam Thielen is no longer with the team.

Stefon Diggs will make the jump from #4 to #2 overall in targets. I am predicting 14 more targets for Diggs as he and Josh Allen continue to develop their chemistry. If somehow the Buffalo Bills end up grabbing DeAndre Hopkins I may re-adjust Diggs’ total targets.

Tyreek Hill‘s targets will drop but not by much. He will once again be the focal point in the Miami Dolphins offense. One major thing to keep an eye on is the health of Tua Tagovailoa. Can he stay healthy the entire season?

Next up it’s our first newcomer on the list. Garrett Wilson finished just outside the top 5 last year in total targets. Now with the addition of Aaron Rodgers, I expect his numbers to climb. I am not worried about Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb taking targets away. Wilson is the Jets #1 WR and they will continue to lean on him.

Last on the list is the always reliable Travis Kelce. Kelce finished 6th last season in total targets with 152. I expect him to hover around this range again in 2023-2024. The Chiefs no longer have JuJu Smith-Schuster and still lack a true #1 receiver. All that means is more target share for the great tight end.

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Chicago Bears: TE Cole Kmet [ADP: 113.5]

Cole Kmet had a sneaky good season with a top-seven finish for TEs in fantasy football. He caught 50 balls for 544 yards and seven TDs. He and Justin Fields have established a connection that will still be reliable even with new additions on offense. At 113.5, he’s a very good TE to draft if you went heavy on the other positions first. Hopefully, more passing plays will be drawn up to use Kmet more.

Detroit Lions: WR Marvin Jones [ADP: 245.9]

Detroit picked up WR Marvin Jones from free agency to shore up their WR depth. Now, it looks like he should play a bigger role with WR Jameson Williams out due to a gambling suspension. Other than Amon-Ra, the Lions don’t have strong options on WR as they’re mostly young. Detroit might rely on Marvin Jones to help stabilize the WR core.

Green Bay Packers: RB Aaron Jones [ADP: 58]

Aaron Jones has slid down draft boards and has an ADP of 58. He was a first-round potential pick as late as a year or two ago. Seeing him at fifth-round value made no sense. He’s still a very good pass-catcher and will be a good chunk of the offense with Jordan Love still learning to play QB. I would draft him early knowing what he can do.

Minnesota Vikings: WR Jordan Addison [ADP 107.2]

The Vikings used their first-round pick on WR Jordan Addison out of USC. After letting go of Adam Thielen in the offseason, Addison looks to get the receptions of Thielen. With Justin Jefferson getting attention from the game plan, Addison can take advantage of this and produce a solid rookie season. He’s worth drafting for your flex position.

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QUARTERBACKS

#1 Bryce Young – Carolina Panthers

Bryce Young is in Carolina after months of anticipation. He had been first overall on draft boards for the longest time when Carolina made the trade. We will see if the size concerns are legitimate as he is expected to start early on for the Panthers. Carolina did a good job bringing in pieces such as Adam Thielen and Hayden Hurst. Unless he’s a total bust, Bryce will have a strong rookie season.

#2 C.J. Stroud – Houston Texans

After all the noise in the pre-draft process, the Texans took the best QB available at number two. With all the propaganda against Stroud, his stock was falling and even the gambling lines weren’t a fan of him. Stroud goes into a rebuilding situation in Houston with few good options such as Robert Woods and Dameon Pierce. With Houston being in one of the weakest divisions in the NFL, he can make noise early on. The stats might not look as nice but I believe in C.J. Stroud.

#4 Anthony Richardson – Indianapolis Colts

The Colts shocked the draft boards when they selected Anthony Richardson with the fourth pick of the draft. Many were speculating that Will Levis would be the pick but the Colts were higher on Richardson. Richardson comes in as a project as he will need experience first. So, expect a rocky season in terms of win-loss record. His running game could give him points, like what Justin Fields did last season. I expect AR to be the starter as Gardner Minshew will serve as a good backup to him to help him grow. He’s worth stashing since he’ll most likely have a rocky start.

RUNNING BACKS

#8 Bijan Robinson – Atlanta Falcons

Bijan Robinson had been touted as the best non-QB offensive weapon in this class. With the value of RBs decreasing, his talent level was respected very much as he had top-10 pick status in mock drafts. Atlanta chose to use their eighth pick on him in the draft. Now, he would be their top RB and a nice piece for Desmond Rider. People were hoping he would go somewhere else where his talent can shine more. The Falcons drafted Tyler Allgeier last year and he just ran for over 1000 yards. I think it’s safe to assume Bijan will get the workload immediately. Allgeier could steal some snaps early on, especially if he’s doing well.

#12 Jahmyr Gibbs – Detroit Lions

The Detroit Lions traded down to 12 and got two more picks for the 6th and 81st. They surprisingly took Jahmyr Gibbs out of Alabama with the 12th pick. Draft boards had Gibbs to be drafted later in the first round and running back isn’t a need for the Lions. Besides keeping D’Andre Swift, they also signed David Montgomery in the offseason. This might be a tough first season production-wise for Gibbs as he will have two established players ahead of him. Keep him on your mind in case any of the two gets injured during the season.

Update: D’Andre Swift has been traded to the Eagles so this leaves Gibbs with the potential to have a decent rookie season. It could be similar to the Swift-Williams combo last season.

WIDE RECEIVERS

#20 Jaxon Smith-Njigba – Seattle Seahawks

The first wide receiver off the board took longer than expected as the Seahawks took Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Many of the mocks had him as early as 12th to the Texans but the teams went with other options. This pick is interesting as he goes to a wide receiver room of DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. In case Lockett, leaves JSN would serve as a good replacement and it gives Geno Smith an extra weapon. JSN would be worth drafting in the middle to late rounds.

#21 Quentin Johnson – Los Angeles Chargers

The Chargers went for a receiver a pick after when they took Quentin Johnson. A monster of a man, he makes the Chargers receiving core even bigger and much richer. It will be hard to spread the ball around with Mike Williams, Keenan Allen, and Austin Ekeler getting passes from Justin Herbert. He’s worth stashing depending on the availability of the receivers.

#22 Zay Flowers – Baltimore Ravens

What a day for the Baltimore Ravens as they were able to secure Lamar for the future and get him help with Zay Flowers. The wide receivers in Baltimore weren’t impressive last season. Now, with OBJ, Flowers, and Andrews, Lamar will feel much more comfortable in the passing game with Baltimore. Flowers is very explosive and can go off in those long TD catch and runs.

#23 Jordan Addison – Minnesota Vikings

While losing Adam Thielen to Carolina hurt, they have found his replacement in Jordan Addison. The wide receiver prospect out of Minnesota will enjoy Kirk Cousins‘ passes and being beside Justin Jefferson. He is the perfect complement for him and can have a sneaky good year for the Vikings.

TIGHT ENDS

#25 Dalton Kincaid – Buffalo Bills

The Buffalo Bills drafted the only tight end in the first round with Utah’s Dalton Kincaid. Dalton is more of a pass-catcher which makes it interesting as Dawson Knox still has years left in his contract. It does give Josh Allen more weapons and different looks such as possibly double tight-end plays. It may take a year or two for Dalton to be a fantasy option but he has the skills to be a good pass-catcher.

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BACKGROUND

Jordan Addison is a wide receiver prospect out of Maryland. Coming out of high school, he played multiple positions for his team. Rivals listed him as a three-star wide receiver. He decided to commit to the University of Pittsburgh.

COLLEGE CAREER

As a freshman, he started eight games for the Panthers. He led the team in almost all receiving statistics. He caught 60 passes for 666 yards and four touchdowns. In his second season with Pittsburgh, he was even more phenomenal. In 14 games, he caught 100 balls for 1593 yards. He had 17 TDs, which led all of college football. The awards came pouring in that year as he was a Consensus All-American and the Fred Biletnikoff Award.

2022-2023 COLLEGE CAREER

In a surprising turn of events, Addison transferred to USC before the start of his third season. With more eyes on him, he was still his elite self. He ended the season with 59 receptions for 875 yards and eight TDs. He was named to the First-team All-Pac 12 at the end of the season.

STRENGTHS: Elite Route Running

It’s very fun to watch Addison run his routes. He can easily separate from his defender due to his crafty moves. The receptions speak for themselves as he had 100 receptions and 17 TDs in his sophomore season. He looks like a fun RAC player especially if he’s open. With his size, he can start probably at the slot.

WEAKNESSES: Drops

Drops were an issue for Jordan from his Pittsburgh days. With his talent, he should be more consistent and use his hands better. If he doesn’t solve his dropping issue, teams can lose patience easily.

PLAYER COMPARISON: DeVonta Smith

TEAMS WHO COULD DRAFT HIM

Jordan Addison is one of the most dynamic WRs in the draft and he will have a lot of love in the late first round. Minnesota and the Giants are two teams that would love to have him. The loss of Adam Thielen and the lack of an elite wide receiver in New York will make him look like a must-have.

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