Breece Hall showed flashes but an ACL injury cut short his 2022-2023 NFL season. The rookie out of Iowa State gained a good amount of buzz going into his first year and the fantasy world was on notice. Hall was considered one of the most talented running backs in the draft. His pre-draft ranking was #11 RB per FantasyPros ECR and he ended up with 105.6 FP (Half PPR) on the year. It’s important to note that he reached 105.6 FP in just seven games. Let’s take a closer look at what to do with Breece Hall dynasty shares going forward.

2022

Like fellow rookie Dameon Pierce, Hall had a quiet start to his rookie campaign. He struggled in his first game against the Baltimore Ravens and ended up with just 7.1 FP in the game. He also fumbled in that game and many of his fantasy owners were nervous about the slow start. The good news is that was his only fumble in the seven games he played. Things started to click for Hall in his second game against the Browns. He scored his first NFL touchdown (receiving) and ended up with 12.5 FP on the day. Hall’s best game of the year came against the Dolphins in week 5. The dynamic young running back had 97 yards on the ground and an additional 100 yards receiving. It was an impressive day for Hall as he finished with 26.7 FP.

Hall kept the momentum going in his final two games. In week 6 versus the Packers he had another impressive stat line rushing for 116 yards and 19.1 FP. Next up was the Broncos and things couldn’t have started any better. Hall broke free and scampered for an impressive 62-yard touchdown run.

Unfortunately, things took a turn as Hall went down with a knee injury in the first half. It ended up being a season ending ACL injury that cut Hall’s impressive season short. Many fantasy owners couldn’t help but wonder what numbers he would’ve put up if he stayed healthy all season.

2023

Looking ahead to next season the first question to ask is when will Hall return from his ACL. Early indications are that Hall is recovering very well from his injury. According to Jets head coach Robert Saleh “Breece looks fantastic” which is exactly what Hall’s dynasty owners want to hear. I am cautiously optimistic that Hall will return in time for week 1 next year. Just be sure to grab Michael Carter in case he is not fully recovered yet.

Breece Hall’s Dynasty Value

Where do I rank Breece Hall dynasty value going forward? Very high and you can see that reflected in our dynasty football rankings. I have him ranked 3rd only behind Christian McCaffrey and Jonathan Taylor. The addition of Aaron Rodgers will be huge for Hall (picture an Aaron Jones role). The injury is somewhat concerning but I am not worried about Hall making a full recovery. Breece Hall is a BUY for me but it’s very tempting to take advantage of the hype if you can get a solid trade in return.

The post Breece Hall Dynasty Outlook Right Now appeared first on Pro Football Mania.

By: Jake Rajala

The fantasy football action has only just begun. Heading into Week 6, there has certainly been a lot of fun running back performances. However, there are some RBs that have left fantasy owners scratching their heads. With that said, I’m going to outline five RBs that are honestly overrated right now.

Aaron Jones

The Green Bay Packers veteran RB Aaron Jones may be averaging 6.3 YPC, but he has only mustered out two total touchdowns this season. It’s well-noted that the bowling ball AJ Dillon hasn’t been a friendly face to Jones, as well. Dillon has had 63 carries on the season thus far. It doesn’t appear that Jones’s all-around ability can help him return to the Pro Bowl.

Michael Carter

The New York Jets RB group is whole-heartedly led by former Iowa State legend Breece Hall, who set the franchise record for total yards (197) in a game by a Jets rookie last Sunday. Hall Meanwhile, the 2021 fourth-round draft pick Michael Carter hasn’t been a fabulous RB (158 rushing yds, 3.4 YPC, and 2 rushing TDs). Hall has 56 carries, while Carter has 47 so far.

Melvin Gordon

It seemed like the Broncos were in possession of a lethal 1-2 punch at RB after Melvin Gordon re-signed this off-season. Well, father time may be finally catching up to the former Wisconsin legend. Gordon has sadly run for one touchdown on the season and 193 rushing yards (while averaging 3.7 YPC). Javonte Williams will be out for the season, so perhaps Gordon can find a way to be more effective with a larger load.

Najee Harris

It’s hard to ignore the lack of positive direction from Najee Harris right now. He ran for 20 yards on 11 carries last week & he’s also accumulated 222 rushing yds on 69 rushes, too. Furthermore, he’s only notched 1 rushing TD. It doesn’t appear that he will return to being a 1,200+ yard runner & Pro Bowler soon.

Joe Mixon

The star RB for Cincy, Joe Mixon, hasn’t been his usual powerful self this season, to say the least. Mixon has merely run for 302 yards on 96 carries & 1 TD. His offensive line that added Alex Cappa and La’el Collins this prior summer hasn’t been a positive asset to his abilities, too. I hope the continuity between the Bengals OL can improve soon. Dynasty owners of Mixon may want to be bold with him, too.

The post Fantasy: 5 overrated RBs appeared first on Pro Football Mania.

By: Jake Rajala

The Cincinnati Bengals haven’t been a dreamy AFC squad up to this point (2-3 on the season). It’s safe to say that they really need to get being an AFC enforcer soon. I believe it would be wise for them to make a trade to re-gain their swag and mojo in 2022. Hence, I’m going to untwine a few potential trades for the Cincinnati Bengals asap.

Trade for Andrus Peat

The Bengals OL is still a serious work in progress. Joe Mixon has been a medicore RB (302 rushing yards, 3.1 YPC, and a lone rushing TD). Joe Burrow also hasn’t taken the next step after his heroic 2021 season. A monster reason that the Bengal QB-RB duo has been performing below its capability is the talent of the OL. Perhaps the Bengals should target a talented, versatile interior OL to help their offense click. I believe that Andrus Peat would be the perfect pick-up for Who Dat Nation Who Dey Nation.

Trade for Ambry Thomas

The Bengals could benefit from the arrival of another CB that excel at numerous spots on defense. Ambry Thomas (San Francisco 49ers) has freak talent, but he hasn’t gotten into a rhythm with the 49ers defense. He’s also in his sophomore season and he brings plenty of potential to any team.

Trade for Michael Carter

The Bengals may also need more juice at their pivotal RB spot. It would be sexy if the Bengals added another talented, young RB to their mix. Michael Carter has a plethora of up-side, but he hasn’t been able to stand out with Breece Hall securing the lead-back role. Carter could also make Mixon expendable if he doesn’t return to Pro Bowl form.

The post Potential trades for the Cincinnati Bengals appeared first on Pro Football Mania.

The NFL witnesses many fascinating running back introductions each season. The star New Orleans Saints running back Alvin Kamara won Offensive Rookie of The Year as a third-round pick in 2017. Furthermore, the undrafted free agent Phillip Lindsay ran anger in 2019 for 1,037 yards and 9 touchdowns. There are many other dazzling and surprising running back legacies in the history of the sport.

With that enunciated, I’m going to outline five-strong breakout RB candidates. Let’s begin.

Rashaad Penny

I absolutely love Rashaad Penny’s outlook in 2022. Penny was utterly efficient each time he touched the football last season, as he averaged 6.3 YPC. He also knocked out 749 yards and 6 touchdowns in 10 games. The Hawks brought back the familiar Chris Carson, but Penny should definitely carry the load in the Russell Wilson-less offense. I expect Penny to be a Pro Bowl-caliber RB in the frigid NFC West.

Michael Carter

The New York Jets RB Michael Carter was definitely productive in a lackluster 2021 Jets offense, as he unleashed 964 total yards in 14 games. Carter should really be leaned on in a Jets RB group that offers Tevin Coleman as the second most talented ball carrier. I really expect Mekhi Becton to bounce back to at least his rookie form. Becton and the new guard Laken Tomlin should help Carter improve in his second season as the bell-cow RB.

Javonte Williams

The Broncos second year RB Javonte Williams should excel in the Melvin Gordan-less show. Williams was a rockstar as a rookie with 203 attempts last season (904 rushing yds). He unveiled 1,219 total yards last season, too. Williams is really going to shine behind an OL led by Garrett Bolles and an offense led by Russell Wilson in 2022.

The post 3 breakout RB candidates in 2022 appeared first on Pro Football Mania.

By: Jake Rajala

Some might say dynasty fantasy football season never sleeps. Then there are those who appeal to the notion that “fantasy football season” never sleeps. The 2022 fantasy season should be special, as we will witness a healthy Derrick Henry and Christian McCaffrey notably. Truth be told, the list of star players that will be returning ought to go on a yellow text far into the galaxy. 

Still, the stargazing and dream draft pick(s) isn’t what fantasy love should be all about. We love the juicy sleepers and players that can shock the FF realm. With that said, let’s take an early look at some 2022 sleepers from the RB position. 

• Michael Carter

The New York Jets fourth-round pick has been one of the lone bright spots on the 4-12 squad. Carter has ousted roughly 73 all-purpose yards per game (missed three), as he’s been reliable in the run and pass game. A healthy Mekhi Becton, more impressive growth in the system, and fewer defenders in the box from at least a modest passing game, should provide wonders for Carter in year two. We shouldn’t expect a year-two jump that we saw out of Jonathan Taylor, but he should at least crack the 1,000-yard club. 

The New York Post nicely depicts how Mike LaFleur raves about his knack to learn quickly and utilize his all-around skill set. If he continues to keep climbing the ladder, he should have a nice floor and thrilling ceiling.

• Mark Ingram 

It’s strange to see Mark Ingram, also known as the Saints hypeman, turn back the clock at age 32. The bowling ball halfback has had 3.8 YPC and 398 all-purpose yards (seven games) in his short Saints tenure thus far. These stats don’t truly reveal how impressive his running has been with NOLA. In comparison, Alvin Kamara has only mustered out 3.6 YPC, which is a full yard worse than his previous YPC of 4.6 YPC. The Saints OL has been beaten up and to be honest, the Saints offense has been absolutely decimated. It’s been reported that the Saints have set an NFL record of 58 different starters this season. Ingram may be a bit of a deep sleeper, but he could surprise A LOT of fantasy fanatics when he’s in sync with a healthy, well-oiled machine in NOLA. The Saints have lost Terron Armstead, Ryan Ramczyk, Andrus Peat, Jameis Winston, Michael Thomas, Deonte Harris, and the list goes on. Yet, Ingram looks explosive and efficient when he’s not meeting defenders at the line of scrimmage.

• Elijah Mitchell 

This might be a bit of an obvious *sleeper choice. Nonetheless, let’s not forget how absolutely phenomenal Elijah Mitchell is. As a rookie, the former Louisiana RB has notched 878 rushing yards, 4.7 YPC, in 10 games. If his rushing yard tally is averaged out over 17 games, the rook would have picked up 1,492 yards on the ground. That would place him second in the league (1734 is the first/1205 would be the third). Mitchell is flat out a special football player and fully expect him to be a Top 5 RB with ease next season. Fall in love with the news circling around him throughout the offseason.

The post 3 sleeper RBs to target in 2022 appeared first on Pro Football Mania.

By: Rishi Patel

Welcome back to this NFL column where I will be giving my advice about which fantasy players you should pluck off your waiver wire each week during this NFL season. 

During each NFL season, there are usually sleepers that emerge who you should pick up off the waiver wire due to various reasons, such as better performances than expected, injuries, etc. It’s important to make good use of the waiver wire as players from here could sometimes be good depth and even a starter for your team in critical stretches. It’s hard to believe we are nearly at the midpoint of the season. Let’s look at some players you should consider for this week:

Kenneth Gainwell, RB, Philadelphia Eagles

Eagles RB starter Miles Sanders suffered a low-ankle sprain in Sunday’s loss to the Raiders and could be out for a couple of weeks as a result. This pushes 2021 fifth-round pick Kenneth Gainwell to the top of the depth chart for now. The 22-year-old hasn’t been all that effective in his rookie year but has shown spurts of brilliance. 

This includes a five receptions for 41 yards and a score performance on Sunday against Vegas and even posting 58 receiving yards earlier in the season. Gainwell will now see a lot more of the rushing workload and has receiving prowess, so he’s a solid addition. He will likely fight for carries with Boston Scott, but Gainwell has more upside. 

Michael Carter, RB, New York Jets

Look, the Jets are in shambles (as usual). Things got even worse on Sunday when rookie QB Zach Wilson went down with a PCL injury and now has to miss a few weeks. This means the Jets could lean more on their running game and that is where Carter comes in. The rookie has had modest numbers so far each week but he paces the Jets in rushing yards. 

He also has receiving abilities out of the backfield and just put up eight receptions for 67 yards on nine targets in Week 7. Though this is one of the worst offenses in the league, Carter’s dual-threat ability and expected larger role make him an intriguing addition. 

Byron Pringle, WR, Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs may be struggling this year overall, but their offense is still one of the most talented in the league. And despite having players like Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill, other guys have been stepping up this season too, like Byron Pringle. The 27-year-old has quietly put up at least three games with 55 yards this season. In Week 7, he posted five receptions for 73 yards on six targets. 

Pringle is the fourth-leading receiver on Kansas City and has been quite underrated thus far. He’s worth stashing for your team if you need depth.  

Kendrick Bourne, WR, New England Patriots

The Pats may not have a true WR1, but Bourne has certainly done enough to grab the attention of managers this season. The former 49er now has at least 58 yards in four of the past five games despite not seeing a huge number of targets. He had 96 yards in one of those contests. Bourne is showing consistency and decent production, meaning he’s a sneaky good stash right now. 

Rashod Bateman, WR, Baltimore Ravens

The Ravens have always been about the run but Lamar Jackson can make some nice throws (when he decides to). Baltimore has mostly relied on Mark Andrews and Marquise Brown but a third viable pass-catcher may have emerged in the rookie Bateman out of Minnesota. 

The 22-year-old suffered a groin injury back in August and didn’t make his NFL debut until Week 6 in the blowout win over the Chargers, where he posted 29 yards. He flashed a little more of his talent in Week 7 when he posted three receptions for 80 yards on six targets. Bateman has the potential to be the third-best receiving option behind Andrews and Brown, and he’s worth adding. 

C.J. Uzomah, TE, Cincinnati Bengals

Uzomah has been on fire in recent weeks and that continued on Sunday in a win over the arch-rival Ravens. He had three receptions for 91 yards and two scores. Overall, the 28-year-old has had five touchdowns in the last four games. One thing to note with Uzomah is his inconsistency. While he did post 91 and 95 yards in two of the past four games, he managed only 15 and 16 yards in the other two contests.

The TE is a risky option given his up and down weeks but he’s certainly worth taking a chance on if you need TE options. There is room for Uzomah to have a big game, as evidence of a few recent contests.

The post Fantasy Football Waiver Wire Pickups For Week 8 appeared first on Pro Football Mania.

By Jesse Moeller via JMoeller05

After the chaos in the NFL we saw in week 1, I wanted to give you a list of players I am looking to trade away in dynasty. Unfortunately, I do not see these players holding the current value long-term, otherwise known as depreciating assets. Given this is dynasty, instead of listing only older running backs, I wanted to mention a couple of veterans and a few young running backs that I do not see living up to the billing. For this article, we will be using the dynasty rankings on the DLF website.

The Vets

Derrick Henry RB7

Henry is the biggest name to trade away in dynasty among all running backs. If you can get the value of a top 7 running back, you should move him immediately. The issue with Henry is his inflated rushing volume and nonexistent pass-catching, which limits Henry in PPR leagues. In addition, it makes Henry a game script dependant running back, where if the Titans fall behind as they did in week one, it practically takes Henry out of the game.

Henry has a very high ceiling only exceeded by the elite pass-catching running backs in fantasy, and my issue is more with Henry’s floor as it is much lower than other top-tier running backs. Let’s take game one and break it down to show you my point. Henry ran the ball 17 times in a blowout loss. That may seem like a lot, but that is one of Henry’s lowest totals of the past two seasons. He only has five performances with less than 17 rushes in that period. Now, if you spread that out throughout a 16 game season, you see the big picture issue for Henry. His season total rushing comes out to 272 attempts, which is 106 attempts lower than his 2020 pace. If you gave Henry the same efficiency, his rushing totals come out to 1,457 yards and 12 touchdowns, a whopping 570 fewer rushing yards and five touchdowns fewer. That’s a significant blow to Henry’s value and would crater his dynasty value if that scenario plays out. Given Henry was drafted at his ceiling, advanced age, and has a new offensive coordinator calling plays, he is the name I am screaming to trade away while he still carries that elite fantasy value.

Mike Davis RB31

The Falcons brought over Derrick Henry’s offensive coordinator, so it must be wheels up for Mike Davis, right? There was a lot to like about the hire of Arthur Smith and why teams with Davis rostered had to be excited going into the year. The Falcons did not spend high draft capital or big money on a free agent to give Davis competition as the lead back this year. It set up for Davis to smash a second consecutive year, or at least that was the thought behind buying into Mike Davis this year.

My issue is that the Falcons do not resemble the Titans on offense and should not deploy Davis in that role because it is not in the Falcons’ strengths as a team on offense. Instead, you have Matt Ryan, Calvin Ridley, and Kyle Pitts. Those are the big names in fantasy this year, paired with a far inferior offensive line. It is not an ideal fit for Mike Davis to exceed expectations. The Falcons have a worse defense and questions marks on the line. I don’t see how that setup is strong for Davis this year from a fantasy perspective.

The problem for Davis is that he feels like a ticking time bomb this year in dynasty. If Arthur Smith does not adjust to his talent, it could spell doom for Davis. The sooner you do it, the better. The Buccaneers are in town this week, and it could be a long game for the Falcons. I would be happy to move Davis for the cost of a top 30 dynasty running back.

Young Bucks

Clyde Edwards-Helaire RB12

I have never understood the CEH hype, as people draft him due to the situation and not talent. It is how you set yourself up for failure as a dynasty manager””propping up worse players due to where they were drafted or signed as free agents. With CEH, the signs are there for us to take notice. What continues to concern me about him is the lack of targets, CEH’s calling card in college. His ability to be a pass-catching weapon. The community thought he would explode attached to Mahomes and the Chiefs offense. Instead, it was an up and down rookie year with a disappointing finish that stuck in the craw of managers. The problem is that CEH stayed in the top 12 RB range this offseason. Meaning for CEH to live up to expectations, he needed to produce high-end fantasy numbers.

I have seen enough from CEH to move on to get the return of an RB1 in dynasty. Whether you are a win-now or in a rebuild, you can pivot off of CEH to better options. Talk to a team with Sanders, Ekeler, Dobbins, Williams, or Montgomery and see if you can get that player+ in a return trade. I happily make that type of move to give me a boost for the short and long term.

Michael Carter RB24

The post Dynasty RBs to trade away appeared first on Pro Football Mania.

By Calvin K (Twitter: @Calvin_SGF)

A feeling of excitement is in the air, as NFL training camps are underway and the inaugural preseason game is in the books. Last Thursday’s Hall of Fame Game marked the beginning of the league’s 102nd season, and it will be the second straight year taking place during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Every year, perhaps the most exciting part of training camp is getting to finally see new rookies in action on an NFL practice field. For those rookies, training camp is crucial to learn their new systems and develop as players, and the practices also allow fans to get inside glimpses into how the preparation is going. As usual, many rookies will have an immediate impact in the NFL and in fantasy football, while others will take a while to develop and some may never have a significant impact in the fantasy world. In this article, I’ll be analyzing some rookies to target, rookies to avoid, and other interesting names that you should know heading into your fantasy draft.

Rookies to Target

1. Ja’Marr Chase (WR, Cincinnati Bengals)

Chase is considered perhaps one of the best wide receiver prospects we’ve seen in the last decade, and for good reason. There really aren’t any major flaws in Chase’s college film, and opting out of the 2020 season allowed him to focus on minor refinements that presumably made him a more complete receiver. With a great release, excellent hands, and electric speed, he should step in right away as an impactful NFL receiver.

Reuniting with his college quarterback in Joe Burrow is a major plus for Chase’s fantasy value, and the immediate connection between the pair, as well as the draft capital (#5 overall) spent on Chase implies that he will soon be the Bengals’ top wideout. Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd are both very good receivers as well, but neither of them have the same explosiveness, athletic traits, and dominating play style of Chase. Burrow was also on a 16-game pace of 646 passing attempts last year, a number that would’ve been close to the top of the league. With A.J. Green no longer in the fold, that number is plenty to support all three Bengals wide receivers, and Chase’s upside means he projects to be the best of the bunch in year one and beyond.

2. Javonte Williams (RB, Denver Broncos)

The Broncos made sure to acquire Williams in this year’s draft, moving up five spots to #35 overall and getting the guy they’d set their sights on. Williams will have to compete with Melvin Gordon for the lead role in the Broncos backfield, but his abilities as a tackle-breaker and a pass-catcher mean that he could soon be a three-down back for the team.

Gordon will be a free agent after this year, so it seems obvious that the Broncos would consider Williams to be their future. It gets trickier to project Williams’ 2021 playing time, but his punishing running style means that he could see the field early and often. Williams had easily the highest tackle-breaking rate in the FBS last year, and if that translates to the NFL level, it could mean staggering efficiency, which is something we don’t always see from pure north-south runners.

Strength-of-schedule can be a stat that changes drastically mid-season, but even so, the Broncos’ late-season schedule can still be considered a cause for excitement. After their Week 11 bye, Denver only plays one team above the bottom 10 in points per game allowed, setting Williams up for a potential backfield takeover at a perfect time. We could see a Jonathan-Taylor type breakout from Williams in Weeks 12-17, and league-winning performances in those weeks would certainly make up for a potentially slow start to the year (which may not even happen, given camp reports saying he’s expected to compete right away). Overall, Williams’ talent combined with circumstances could yield a great year for him in fantasy, which is why he’s more than worth a selection at his RB27 price.

3. DeVonta Smith (WR, Philadelphia Eagles)

Smith has a major opportunity to step up in Philadelphia, and in my opinion, he should’ve been picked over Jaylen Waddle at #6 overall. Smith and Chase have many similar traits, as Smith also has consistent hands and gets off the line fast. However, Smith is arguably the better route runner of the two consistency-wise, which then leads to the sensible assumption that the sole reason Smith dropped in the draft was his BMI.

At 6’0″, 174 pounds (166 at his combine), Smith’s weight is lower than essentially every successful wide receiver ever, even weighing in lower than players such as Marvin Harrison and Will Fuller. However, as the first WR to win the Heisman Trophy in 29 years, Smith has established that he’s an outlier at the position. Smith stayed in great health throughout a grueling SEC season last year, and the concerns about injury risk tend to be overblown when you consider that he only missed two games due to injury in his entire college career. Now in the NFL, he should have a great chance at immediately being the Eagles’ top receiver, as his only major competitor for targets is likely to be tight end Dallas Goedert. If he starts for most of the year (which, barring injury, he almost certainly will), he has the potential to be a top-20 fantasy wide receiver, making his current WR39 FantasyPros price feel like his absolute floor.

4. Elijah Moore (WR, New York Jets)

At WR62 on FantasyPros, Moore is set up to be a tremendous value, one that you can get at the very back of your draft. Moore has top-30 WR upside in this new-look Jets’ offense, and while his true breakout isn’t likely to happen in 2021, he still has lots of potential to make noise alongside fellow rookie Zach Wilson.

Wilson’s arm talent allows him to place throws where only his receivers can get it, which is a perfect match for Moore, a speedy receiver with excellent hands and pure, consistent route-running ability. Corey Davis, a veteran, will likely be Wilson’s favorite target early in the season, but Moore’s superior big-play ability will likely translate into a higher target share as the season goes on. Moore could easily end up being the #1 target for New York, but even if he’s not, he can still succeed as the WR2 in what’s likely to be a pass-first offense. Moore has the ability to score long touchdowns and make big plays, but he also was consistently an open target at Ole Miss, which could mean big things for him in the NFL.

Rookies to Avoid

1. Michael Carter (RB, New York Jets)

Carter is not a terrible player to take a shot on late in drafts, but the fourth-round RB is inexplicably ranked 19 spots ahead of Tevin Coleman, who is likely to have more success this year. Fourth-round RBs have an extremely low hit rate, so it makes much more sense to project New York reliance on Coleman, who has a solid 4.2 career yards per carry.

2. Rondale Moore (WR, Arizona Cardinals)

Moore is currently FantasyPros’ WR72, and at that price, he’s a fine player to take a shot on. However, I wouldn’t expect a breakout season from him this year. Christian Kirk is already established as a valuable piece for this Cardinals team, and with the addition of A.J. Green this offseason, it could be difficult for Moore to find a role in the offense.

Moore is incredibly fast, and his burst may be unmatched by any receiver in this draft class. However, he isn’t a dominating type of player, and his speed often is the only tool he uses to win matchups. This isn’t necessarily a bad thing at all for his potential success in the NFL, but it seems likely that this skill set will primarily be a situational one in 2021. As a gadget guy, Moore will be able to throw defenses off balance, but his skill set doesn’t project to him being a high-volume receiver, which could cause him to be inconsistent and disappointing for your fantasy team. Moore certainly has tons of talent, and he could even become a player similar to Tyreek Hill at some point, but we’ve seen many recent examples of speed being overhyped in the NFL (Andy Isabella, Jalen Reagor, Henry Ruggs, etc.), which is why Moore carries a lot of risk and not a ton of reward for this year.

3. Trey Sermon (RB, San Francisco 49ers)

Sermon, who the 49ers selected in the 3rd round of this year’s draft, has some upside, and in the long-term, he could be a very solid RB. However, it’ll be difficult for him to carve out a role this year given the amount of backfield competition in San Francisco.

Raheem Mostert will be a free agent after this year, so Sermon will have an opportunity to be this team’s lead back in the future. However, it’s hard to see him becoming the clear lead back in 2021 while competing with Mostert, Jeff Wilson, and others for touches. The 49ers like to use a running-back-by-committee approach, and Kyle Shanahan likes to run with the hot hand, an approach that can favor a healthy Mostert, who is extremely explosive and efficient. As a third-round RB, Sermon’s hit probability is also much lower than someone like Javonte Williams, so it’s probably unwise to expect a ton from him year one. He’s a fine late-round flier, but his RB35 FantasyPros ranking likely means someone in your league will put at least somewhat of a premium pick on him, which just doesn’t appear worth it in redraft.

Other Names to Know

Kyle Pitts (TE, Atlanta Falcons)

Pitts is an incredible athlete, and he’s in consideration as perhaps the best tight-end prospect in the history of the NFL. Pitts became the first non-QB off the board when the Falcons selected him at #4 overall, and at 6’6″ and 240 pounds, he has the perfect build for a dominating tight end. His athleticism means he can be a vertical dominating threat who can win 50 50 balls consistently, and he has a willingness and an underrated talent for blocking as well, which can’t even be said about some of the league’s better tight ends. However, almost every rookie at the tight end position doesn’t immediately have a massive target share in year one. Pitts’ generational talent means that he could be a superstar right out of the gate, but the early-season risk places him as my TE6 overall for this year.

Travis Etienne (RB, Jacksonville Jaguars)

Etienne is a frustrating case because the Jaguars’ selection of him at #25 overall placed him into what should be a heated backfield battle with fellow RB James Robinson. Robinson shined in his rookie season after going undrafted last year, but the addition of Etienne likely means he won’t handle close to the historically high snap share that came his way last season. The Jaguars will be better as a team this year, which should help both RBs, but the fact remains that they both are talented, and they will continuously eat into each other’s workloads. Etienne’s main breakout will be in the second half of the year when he’s gotten some NFL experience, but even then, a true emergence could be difficult to pull off given Robinson’s presence. Due to all of this, Etienne is my #28 fantasy RB for next year, and while he does have some upside, his risk is too high for me to want him as my RB2.

Rashod Bateman (WR, Baltimore Ravens)

Bateman, the Ravens’ first-round wide receiver out of Minnesota, is an electric player with many highlight-reel-worthy plays on his college tape. However, he will, unfortunately, be part of a Ravens offense that just doesn’t throw the ball enough to give Bateman tons of upside. Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson had 376 pass attempts in 15 games last year. In contrast, Bengals QB Joe Burrow had 28 more attempts while playing in just 10 games. This limited volume will cap Bateman’s ceiling and limit his consistency, and with an elite tight end in Mark Andrews already established as this offense’s top target, it’ll be hard for the rookie to breakthrough in year one. Marquise Brown and Sammy Watkins will also fight for the team’s #2 role, and fourth-round pick Tylan Wallace is in the mix as well. All of these factors don’t necessarily mean Bateman won’t succeed, but they certainly make it much more difficult for him to be consistently productive in fantasy.

Jaylen Waddle (WR, Miami Dolphins)

Waddle is joining a confusing situation in Miami, and although he will reunite with Tua Tagovailoa, his college QB, there are a lot of question marks surrounding his fantasy potential. Tua’s inconsistency last year is one cause for concern, and while we know he has lots of arm talent, it remains to be seen if he can produce at the NFL level. Another issue for Waddle will be the Dolphins’ supporting cast. Will Fuller and Mike Gesicki should both handle significant receiving work, and with DeVante Parker, Myles Gaskin, Preston Williams, and Albert Wilson also vying for targets, it could be difficult for Waddle to carve out an established role. Finally, while Waddle is an electric player, he’s not necessarily a very complete WR. His hands are a major question mark, and this could cause him to become more of a gadget guy for the team, with a large portion of his touches coming at or near the line of scrimmage. Gadget roles usually aren’t overly consistent on a week-to-week basis, and while manufactured touches could help his touch share overall, they may not be reliable enough to immediately help your team this year. In the dynasty, Waddle will have much more time to develop a significant offensive role, but for this year, there are a lot of hurdles to overcome, which is why his immediate production potential appears limited.

First-Round QBs

All five first-round quarterbacks could make a fantasy impact this year, but it’s not necessarily likely that any single one will put up amazing stats in Year 1. Trevor Lawrence is the consensus rookie QB1 for redraft, and while he has a good arm and some rushing upside, he doesn’t have the same rushing explosiveness as players like Lamar Jackson and Kyler Murray. Lawrence has solid weapons in Jacksonville, but overall, there’s not really a reason to believe that he should be drafted above other established veterans at the position. Zach Wilson’s arm talent is incredible, but coming from a non-Power Five school in BYU could mean that it takes him some time to adjust at the NFL level. Trey Lance has great rushing upside, but he’s unlikely to start immediately for the 49ers, as they seem quite comfortable with Jimmy Garoppolo as the starter for now. I’d expect Lance, this year’s #3 overall pick, to see the field at some point this year, but it seems assured that he won’t provide a full year of fantasy production. The same thing applies to Justin Fields, who has great arm talent and speed. Fields also was an inconsistent decision-maker against the blitz in college, and those issues could be exacerbated when facing NFL defenses. Finally, Mac Jones of New England is likely to see the field least out of this group, and while he is an accurate passer, his rushing upside is extremely minimal, which will make it tough for him to provide big fantasy weeks.

Overall, there are many intriguing storylines to consider when evaluating rookies for your fantasy draft. I tend to believe that rookies are generally undervalued in redraft, which is why I have more major players to target than to avoid. Drafting rookies gives you a lot of upsides, and while they may disappoint early in the year, many will come through in a big way later on. That early-season disappointment can also give you a perfect buy-low window on some rookies, and while many will be good from the start of the year, others can sometimes be acquired for extremely low prices, making them likely to pay off on investment. Overall, you should make sure to have a good evaluation on a rookie and their surrounding players before making a selection. However, with the right knowledge, targeting rookies can be a great strategy to aid your chances of winning your fantasy league.

The post 2021 Fantasy Football rookie outlook appeared first on Pro Football Mania.

Here’s today’s riddle. What rookie had one less carry than fellow rookie Javonte Williams, was drafted 72 spots later, but actually had more rushing yards and better yards per carry average? Well, that would be none other than Williams’ fellow North Carolina teammate Michael Carter. 

When the New York Jets turned in Carters’ card with the 107th pick overall in the 2021 NFL Draft, they moved one step closer to finding clarity in their backfield. With the departure of Frank Gore, and his 203 touches, the Jets running backs’ room may be crowded, but it lacks a solid incumbent. 

Tevin Coleman: On the surface, the newly acquired free agent looks to be the RB1. In four years with the Atlanta Falcons, Coleman rushed the ball 528 times for 2,340 yards, 18 touchdowns, and a respectable 4.4 yards per rush average. He added another 92 receptions and 11 touchdowns through the air. However, the past two seasons in San Francisco have not been so productive for Coleman. His 165 rush attempts for 597 yards, six touchdowns and a 3.6 yards per attempt are not lead-back numbers. 

La’Mical Perine:  Drafted in the 4th round of the 2020 NFL Draft, Perine’s rookie season with the Jets was unspectacular. In 10 games he rushed 64 times for 232 yards, two touchdowns, and a 3.6 yards per rush average. The most telling stat, however, was Perine’s inability to create additional yardage as elite backs do. At 1.6 yards after contact and only two broken tackles all season, Perine lacks the explosive playmaking ability that an NFL team looks for in its RB1.

Ty Johnson: Rumour has it that Johnson and Carter are really making that hard push in training camp to come out on top of the Jets running back depth chart. In 2020, Johnson appeared in 11 games with the Jets rushing 54 times for 254 yards and one touchdown. But as with Perine, Johnson lacks the ability to extend running plays. He averaged 1.8 yards after contact and managed to break only a solitary tackle all season. 

The 2020 Jets were the worst in the NFL offensively (32nd overall) and were dead last in the league in rushing touchdowns. It helped lead to the firing of head coach Adam Gase and the hiring of Robert Saleh. New offensive coordinator Mike Lafleur joins Saleh, both of whom learned under 49er head coach Kyle Shanahan, and will look to develop an offense similar to the ones the 49ers ran during their tenure. And in that scheme, the running backs are vital to the success of it. 

Carter is the perfect fit. He rushed 514 times in college for 3,404 yards, 22 touchdowns and a healthy 6.6 yards per rush attempt average. He added 82 more receptions for 656 yards, six more touchdowns, and an average of 8.0 yards per reception. But what sets Carter apart from the rest of the Jets’ running backs, what makes him a potential elite NFL running back, is both his explosiveness and his ball security. In 2020, Carter rushed 157 times, gained an additional 702 yards after initial contact (4.47 average per attempt) all without coughing up the ball even once. That is what an NFL coach dreams about and that is exactly what is going to make Michael Carter RB1 for the New York Jets in 2021 and beyond. 

The post The Jets will run with rookie Carter appeared first on Pro Football Mania.