By Calvin K (Twitter: @Calvin_SGF)

As any football fan knows, Michael Thomas has had more than his fair share of injury struggles as of late, starting just five games in the past two seasons combined and missing the entirety of 2021 due to an ankle injury. Thus, Thomas’s dynasty outlook seems extremely murky at the moment. In this article, I’ll sort through the muck by answering three important questions before getting to the final verdict on the former Offensive Player of The Year’s dynasty value.

What is Michael Thomas’ status with the Saints?

MT has expressed frustration in the past with the Saints’ handling of his injury, but a tweet he sent out on New Year’s Day seemed to imply that he no longer harbors bad feelings for the franchise. Thus, he looks set to play out another year of his contract in 2022 barring a trade, unless he’s cut. However, cutting MT this year would cost the Saints $22.7 million in dead cap, so that doesn’t seem to be much of a possibility at the moment. The saints may move away from Thomas in a future year, but unless he’s traded, he’s likely to be around for 2022.

He also expressed his gratitude to Sean Payton in a series of tweets as the Saints legendary coach announced his retirement. It’s not clear who will replace Payton, but it seems certain that Saints long-time offensive coordinator Pete Carmichael will call the shots moving forward.

What’s the best-case scenario for Michael Thomas in dynasty?

Thomas will be 29 years old heading into 2022, and his last stretch of fantasy dominance was in 2019, when he was easily the WR1 overall, capping an impressive run of four-straight top-seven fantasy finishes. At his best, Thomas is a great route-runner who can be lethal with his physicality and agility off the line. If Thomas returns to form, he could be a solid WR1 in a Jameis-Winston-led offense, or if Winston doesn’t re-sign with the Saints, he could still command a top-10, or even top-five target share league-wide as a safe underneath option. I don’t think there’s any doubt that Thomas still has the talent to be the Saints WR1 for a few more years. If the Saints get Wilson, he should have a very good floor until 2025.

When Taysom Hill even started three games in 2021, Thomas and Hill routinely put up modest numbers. Thomas caught 8 catches for 84 yards against the Eagles and 11 catches for 105 yards in a contest against the Falcons. When Brees was a shell of himself in the playoffs, Thomas still hauled in 73 yards and a touchdown against the Bears.

The loss of Sean Payton will hurt the offense (Kamara especially), but it won’t make a massive difference with Thomas. The Saints wideout is the far and alone WR1 and it helps that he can run any route in his sleep. Thomas is the best red zone weapon on the Saints, too.

What’s the worst-case scenario for Michael Thomas in dynasty?

Thomas just can’t seem to shake the injury troubles as of late, and if he suffers another setback or a different injury, that could potentially hobble him again in 2022. Furthermore, he might just not recover and return to prime form, given his age and the effect that long-lasting foot injuries can have on the quickness of a wide receiver. We saw Dez Bryant and even Julio Jones struggle with returning to form after foot injuries. Although, Thomas is a bit younger than those wideouts at the time of significant injury. If Thomas is this far past his prime, it could mean devastation for his dynasty managers, but there is certainly a wide range of outcomes for his dynasty value in the future.

Final Verdict

Thomas certainly has the upside to be an elite receiver again. For a win-now dynasty team, I’d still look to trade for him, as long as he’s not being severely overvalued by a manager who considers him a top-15 dynasty guy.

The fact is, there are a lot of good, young receivers coming into the league, and though it seems crazy to think about, a young player like Elijah Moore or DeVonta Smith could easily end up being a better dynasty asset. Smith has a safe QB situation, as well. I’m not making a declarative statement on that either way, but I’d value Thomas around where those two are right now, as a back-end WR2/high WR3 with win-now upside. If you’re a rebuilding team looking to acquire MT, I’d definitely advise against it. But that upside is extremely enticing, and they’re certainly may be an opportunity to capitalize in your league on a manager who’s weary of his injuries.

The post Dynasty Outlook: Michael Thomas appeared first on Pro Football Mania.

By: Corey Hietpas

Michael Thomas gets the most undeserved hate out of all the receivers in the league. All the guy does is dominate year after year, but you would never know that if all you did was search his name on Twitter. My best guess as to why is that fans view him as a “diva” for being outspoken and emotional. To help dispel some of this unwarranted hate, I dive into 3 reasons why he is still one of the best receivers in the game today.

Thomas has had an 85 or higher PFF grade since entering the league.

Yes, I know that PFF is not the one true source for grading players, but they do a really good job of it. If they didn’t, we wouldn’t see them advertised every Monday night. No doubt, 2020 was a relatively rough year for Michael Thomas as he missed 9 games due to two separate injuries and ended up only playing 4 games with Drew Brees when he was healthy. Even with the injury-plagued season, Thomas still graded out really well during the games he did play as he finished a final grade of 85. For those who aren’t familiar with PFF grades, they aren’t like Madden ratings. 70-79 is really good and 80+ is getting to the really high performers level. For context, Patrick Mahomes only had a 91 PFF grade in 2020. So Michael Thomas earning an 85 while playing through injury and not-so-good QB play is very telling. Looking at a larger sample size, Michael Thomas was graded as 90+ for 2017, 2018, and 2019. He’s been nothing short of phenomenal during his career. 

Advanced Metrics love Michael Thomas.

According to Matt Harmon’s “Reception Perception”, Michael Thomas is really good when going against Man Coverage and Zone Coverage. This is shown by his 80% or higher success rate against both man and zone over the last few years. Along with this, Player Profiler had him as a top 5 receiver in the following categories during his last full season (2019): target share, completed air yards, yards after the catch, red zone receptions, yards per pass route, catch rate, true catch rate, and contested catch rate. Needless to say, when healthy, Michael Thomas is a beast. Even in an injury-riddled 2020 season, he finished top 5 in target share, air yards share, true catch rate, and contested catch rate. As long as he can stay healthy, I fully expect Thomas to return to his dominant self in 2021.

He’s not just a “slant boy”.

Let’s talk about a bit of background first. After having a rough two games against Tampa Bay, Carlton Davis called Michael Thomas a “slant boy” on Twitter this past January, and that nickname has definitely stuck around. Michael Thomas is a short-to-intermediate expert, and he’s now getting a bad reputation because of this. Even if he thrives on these shorter routes, he’s not even close to just a “slant boy”. NFL.com released an article that graded the top 3 receivers by route using Next Gen Stats. Yes, Michael Thomas was the highest-graded receiver on slant routes, but that’s far from the whole picture. Thomas was also the highest-graded receiver for crossing routes, out routes, and hitches. As I said, the guy thrives in the short to the intermediate area. This does not make him a lesser receiver, it shows that he has perfected his craft.

I don’t know what brings all the disrespect on for Michael Thomas, but I do know that it is completely misguided. Statistically, very few receivers have a resume as good as Michael Thomas does since 2016, and he deserves way more respect than he receives.

The post 3 reasons why Michael Thomas is the most disrespected WR appeared first on Pro Football Mania.