Current Vegas Odds for MVP (FanDuel Sportsbook):

• Mahomes: -500
• Burrow: +600
• Allen: +1000
• Hurts: +1100

It’s important to look deeply into the numbers each of these players has put up to grasp each of their claims to MVP. Hurts has thrown for 3,472 yards in 14 games. For reference, Mahomes has thrown for 4,720 yards, Burrow for 4,260, and Allen for 4,029, all in 15 games. Allen leads all four in passing attempts, leaving his completion percentage at 63.4, which is also the lowest of the four. But Buffalo’s offense goes almost exclusively through him, to a greater extent than any of the others.

This is also shown in the running game, where Allen’s 746 rushing yards dwarfs Mahomes’s 321 and Burrow’s 247. Hurts has 747 in one less game. He also has 13 rushing touchdowns, which is six more than Allen’s total. Hurts’s 13 rushing touchdowns is just one away from Cam Newton’s 14 in 2011 for the most by a quarterback in a single season in the history of the NFL. With two regular season games remaining, should Hurts find himself on track to play, Newton’s record won’t be standing much longer.

The comparison of Hurts and Newton is interesting to examine further. Newton won the NFL’s MVP award in 2015, a season in which he too led his team to a season with just a single loss as a starter. But Hurts’s numbers are better in certain areas.

2015 Cam Newton (16 starts):

• 3,837 passing yards
• 38 passing touchdowns
• 7.8 yards gained per pass attempt
• 10 interceptions
• 636 rushing yards
• 10 rushing touchdowns

2022 Jalen Hurts (through 14 starts):

• 3,472 passing yards
• 22 passing touchdowns
• 8.2 yards gained per pass attempt
• 5 interceptions
• 747 rushing yards
• 13 rushing touchdowns

The only knock on Hurts’s chances for MVP is that missed start against the Cowboys on Christmas Eve. Mahomes, Burrow, and Allen all have an additional start to their credit. It isn’t clear at this point if Hurts will be missing either of the Eagles’ remaining games, with speculation lending itself in either direction at the moment. If he plays in the last two games, his chances are really good. If he doesn’t play in one or both of the remaining games, he’ll fall out entirely, and Mahomes will likely end up with the award on his reputation, let alone his stats.

The post Does Jalen Hurts Deserve to be MVP? appeared first on Pro Football Mania.

By: Brock Wells

There’s a clear path for Matthew Stafford to win the NFL’s MVP award in 2022. Coming off the Super Bowl season of last year, he’s going to be more comfortable in his role as the Los Angeles Rams’ quarterback in year two. There’s also precedent for this as he was putting up MVP-caliber numbers last season up to a certain point in the year. He threw for 4,886 yards last season and 41 passing touchdowns, but the flipside of this was that his 17 interceptions led the NFL.

1

For Stafford, Cooper Kupp is key number one to getting himself in a position to win MVP in 2022. Kupp was arguably the best wide receiver in the NFL last season and figures to be so once again this season. His 145 receptions led the league last season, as did his 1,947 receiving yards, and his 114.5 receiving yards per game. To replicate these numbers is to ensure Stafford puts up similar numbers to last season.

Stafford and Kupp were one of the NFL’s most dangerous duos last season and a big part of the reason Stafford was getting early season looks for MVP.

2

Another key will be for Stafford to stay consistent throughout the season and cut down on the interceptions. He was an MVP-like trajectory last season early on before he started to throw a number of interceptions. Some of this may have come down to the fact that he was still a bit unsure in the Rams system after having spent the entirety of his career with the Detroit Lions. Leading the NFL in interceptions isn’t going to win you the MVP.

3

To help Stafford’s case for MVP, the Rams are also going to need to replicate the success they had last season, or even improve upon it in the regular season. The team went 12-5 last season, which was good enough to win the NFC West by a game over the Arizona Cardinals. But a decrease in interceptions likely translates to a similar 12-5 outing, if not a game or two better over the course of the season.

Can the Rams hold off a 49ers team that’s getting a lot of hype and a Cardinals team that’s likely better than people expect again this season?

Stafford vs. Rodgers

Aaron Rodgers has won the MVP the last two NFL seasons. Stafford had more passing yards and passing touchdowns than Rodgers last season, but Rodgers threw just four interceptions.

• Rodgers: 4,115 yards, 37 touchdowns, 111.9 passer rating
• Stafford: 4,886 yards, 41 touchdowns, 102.9 passer rating

The Packers went 13-3 in the 16 games Rodgers started last season. If Stafford can cut down on interceptions, that increases his passer rating overall. In addition to this, he’s going to want to keep a consistent level of passing touchdowns throughout the season, maybe pushing that number up to 45. If he does this, and the Rams do well as a team again, he’s going to be right in the thick of things in the race for the NFL MVP award.

The post 3 reasons why Matthew Stafford could win MVP appeared first on Pro Football Mania.

By: Jake Rajala

The NFL MVP race is coming to a close as the end of the 2021 – 2022 regular season approaches. There are a string of quarterbacks who currently make a serious case for the most valuable player award. Signal callers like Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, and Matthew Stafford have ousted career (or near career) seasons of production. 

There have also been a few non-QB players pushing for robust MVP consideration. Playmakers like Cooper Kupp (WR) and Jonathan Taylor (RB) have been praised as MVP favorites by a plethora of outlets. Still, there is one honest and clear aspect regarding the MVP race: there is not a consensus favorite. 

With that being said, I believe the leader of the pack is very clear in my point of view. My highlighted player has really been the most dominant this year, yet he garners an unpopular amount of MVP hype. This profile I’m referring to is none other than Rams WR Cooper Kupp. 

Here is why Kupp stands as the MVP favorite and why I foresee the wideout as the ultimate MVP winner.

• Let’s compare Kupp and Michael Thomas

Is Cooper Kupp the most talented WR in the NFL? The answer is: who cares. Cooper Kupp can be referred to as Wes Welker, or “Wes Welker on steroids”. Nonetheless, Kupp is an elite wideout & he’s showing dominance in many areas of the receiving game. 

Michael Thomas wasn’t talked about as the clear-cut best wideout in football when he won Offensive Player of The Year in 2019. Matter, in fact, Thomas wasn’t even ranked as a Top 3 wideout by countless sources. Yet, Thomas showed off his drive, talent, and consistency. 

As widely enunciated, Thomas was the second WR ever to win OPOY in 2019 (Jerry Rice being the other). The Saints WR famously broke the single-season reception record with 149 grabs. The reason that Kupp should feel so optimistic is that he’s dominating in the reception category AND numerous other categories. Kupp is nearly on pace to be close to breaking the glorious 16 game reception record claimed by MT ”“ as Kupp is projected to grab 139 catches in a 16 game span. 

We know Kupp could break the very impressive reception record held by Thomas, who played with Drew Brees and Sean Payton. Well, Kupp could do more than be prolific in the reception tallies. The Rams WR could also break the receiving yards record. Kupp could surely be on the verge of breaking Calvin Johnson’s receiving yard record, who holds the impressive record with 1,964 yards. The fifth year pro is on schedule to pick up on astronomical 1,857 receiving yards after 16 contests.

With this being exonerated, Kupp has a very comforting outlook for the remainder of the season, as well. In two out of the next three games, LA plays the Vikings 29th ranked pass defense and the 31st ranked Baltimore pass defense unit. Most importantly, count on McVay getting Kupp to be his second toy to win a league award.

Todd Gurley won OPOY in 2017.

• Tom Brady’s 9-0 defeat in Week 15 

One of the most underrated factors of Kupp’s recognition for the award has to be QB Tom Brady’s recent showcase of failure. It’s no surprise that Brady is an MVP candidate, especially because he “plays the QB position”. Although, I do believe that the combination of stats and position still deserves to make Brady take a backseat after a historically low single-game performance in Week 15. 

It’s straight-up silly that analysts and people will point out how Brady’s supporting cast was crippled in the game. For one, TB12 didn’t put up a single point for one and a half quarters when they were healthy. Also, Brady decided to run and then fumble the football when the Bucs were in field goal position. Towards the end of the game, Brady made an overaggressive throw while he was on the run, which resulted in a pivotal interception. 

An underappreciated, sad reason for the “GOAT”’s struggles also lies with the fact that the Bucs controlled the time of possession in ¾ quarters against the Taysom Hill, non-Sean Payton-led, abysmal team. The Saints defense had very little rest and Brady still failed to complete a successful, well-balanced drive to put a mere three points. 

• Jonathan Taylor is a step behind MVP worthy 

I confidently believe that Kupp, Brady, and Taylor are the top 3 favorites for the MVP award. Of course, I feel that Kupp has the upper hand over Brady. I feel that the Buccaneers QB, who still has godly numbers, realistically deserves to come in after the Rams very elite playmaker. With that being said, let’s talk about the semi-late blossomer in Jonathan Taylor.

The Colts RB Jonathan Taylor has helped his team win eight out of their past ten games and he’s been a fantasy football machine. Still, I don’t believe Taylor will do enough to steal the award from a QB or upend the trophy over a historically talented player at a non QB position (hence Cooper Kupp). It doesn’t appear that Taylor, who has 17 rushing touchdowns after 16 weeks, will come close to breaking the single-season rushing touchdown record held by LaDainian Tomlinson (26).

The Colts halfback has been undeniably efficient as he’s been Top 3 in YPC throughout the vast majority of the season. Taylor’s downfall might be that he hasn’t been fed the ball enough. Taylor has still been unearthly impressive with his TD count and all-purpose yard count, but it also seems all but impossible for him to join the 2k (or 1,800) rushing yard mark in a 16 game span (1,626). He isn’t the next Adrian Peterson or Chris Johnson even just yet. The sure-fire All-Pro RB has been the top at his position and a gifted player, but it will require a lot of highlights in the next two games for JT to be a top two, or clear-cut favorite for the award.

The post Cooper Kupp deserves to be the MVP favorite: here’s why appeared first on Pro Football Mania.

By: Eli Grabanski

The MVP race is one of the most fun to watch in sports, as it leads to a lot of great debates throughout the season. In the 2018 NFL season, it was Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes. In 2019, it was Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson. Last year, Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers took home the crown. This article will look at the most likely player to win MVP at each of the key offensive skill positions – QB, RB, WR, and TE. Let’s dive in.

QB: Patrick Mahomes

The MVP of the NFL is almost always a quarterback. It makes sense since they are the leaders of the team and have the largest impact on each game. To be in the MVP conversation, a quarterback needs to put up efficient passing numbers and be on a winning team.

This is by far the toughest choice to pick a favorite of the skill positions since there are quite a few great options, but for the purposes of this article, we’ll go with the safest pick and say Patrick Mahomes. Mahomes has had an incredible start to his career, completing 66% of his passes for 14152 passing yards (307.7 per game) and 114 touchdown passes (2.48 per game) in his first 46 starts. In addition, his team has consistently won since he’s been the starter, with the team going 38-8 in the regular season with him as their quarterback. He’s got a great supporting cast and coaching staff that make it easier for him to put up impressive numbers, and he’s also far enough removed from his previous MVP award (2018) for any semblance of ‘MVP voter fatigue’ to fade away. For all of these reasons, Mahomes should be the favorite to win the MVP award in 2021.

Other Notable Candidates: Lamar Jackson, Justin Herbert, Kyler Murray, Matthew Stafford, Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson, Matt Ryan, Dak Prescott, Jalen Hurts, Josh Allen, Baker Mayfield, and Ryan Tannehill

RB: Nick Chubb

Besides the quarterback position, the running back position has the next best shot at winning the prestigious NFL MVP award. To be the MVP as a running back, you usually have to put up 2000+ yards from scrimmage, play for a winning team, and have a strong narrative as to why you should win.

Based on these criteria, Nick Chubb seems like a phenomenal candidate to win the award. The Browns are slated to be one of the top contenders in the AFC after finishing 11-5 a year ago. The Browns are also a run-heavy team, with the team running the ball 495 times in 2020. Head coach Kevin Stefanski and offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt are committed to running the ball, and running backs coach Stump Mitchell and offensive line coach Bill Callahan are among the best position coaches in the league. The Browns also have the #1 ranked offensive line according to PFF which should help open up running lanes for Nick Chubb to put up insane rushing numbers. All these situational factors, plus Nick Chubb’s elite ability to generate yards after contact and you have all the makings for a monster numbers year. Add in the narrative of the lowly Browns finally becoming a contender and you have the makings of a potential MVP season for Nick Chubb.

Other Notable Candidates: Derrick Henry, Austin Ekeler, Saquon Barkley, Alvin Kamara, Christian McCaffrey, Jonathan Taylor, Ezekiel Elliott, David Montgomery, Najee Harris, and Dalvin Cook

WR: Michael Thomas

For a wide receiver to win MVP, they need to be capable of putting up big numbers, play with multiple different quarterbacks (so the QB doesn’t take the award instead), and play on a winning team.

Of all the major wide receiver candidates for the MVP award, Michael Thomas probably has the best shot at this combination. The New Orleans Saints have a QB controversy going into the 2021 season, with Jameis Winston and Taysom Hill fighting for the starting job. There’s a good chance that both make some starts at some point during the 2021 season. The Saints have been one of the best teams in the NFL in recent years and should be in the playoff mix once again. Lastly, Michael Thomas has shown the capability to put up massive receiving numbers in the past, including an insane 2019 season where he had 149 receptions on 185 targets for 1725 receiving yards and nine receiving touchdowns. He is absolutely capable of doing it again now that he’s healthy.

Other Notable Candidates: Tyreek Hill, Stefon Diggs, Calvin Ridley, Davante Adams, Keenan Allen, A.J. Brown, Julio Jones, Allen Robinson, Justin Jefferson, Mike Evans, DeAndre Hopkins, and D.K. Metcalf

TE: George Kittle

Realistically, a tight end doesn’t really have a shot for the MVP award. But just for fun, if a tight end were to win MVP in 2021, which would it be? Travis Kelce? Darren Waller? Kyle Pitts?

The tight end with the best shot to semi-realistically win MVP in 2021 would be George Kittle. Travis Kelce is capable of putting up huge numbers, but in any season where he’s an MVP candidate his quarterback, Patrick Mahomes likely is as well. Darren Waller is also capable of putting up big numbers, but there are concerns about his team winning enough games to be MVP.

Now look at George Kittle. Kittle is capable of putting up huge numbers like Kelce and Waller. His team is projected to make the playoffs. There’s a good chance that the 49ers play two different quarterbacks during the 2021 season considering they drafted Trey Lance 3rd overall in the 2021 NFL Draft and they still have Jimmy Garoppolo on the roster – which means that the quarterback likely wouldn’t have the numbers to steal the award away from Kittle.

Other Notable Candidates: Darren Waller and Travis Kelce

The post Early MVP favorites from each skill position appeared first on Pro Football Mania.

Daniel Racz @Danny___Dimes

Introduction

When Lamar Jackson entered the 2018 NFL draft, the football community debated whether or not his style would translate to the league. Though some believed Lamar’s athleticism could best be utilized as a wide receiver, the Ravens ultimately traded up into the first round to take the quarterback with the 32nd pick.

In his first full season as the starter, Lamar took the league by storm and won the MVP trophy. Many expected Lamar to repeat his 2019 success, but he fell short of expectations. Lamar did not throw for as many touchdowns, and he caught covid during the season, which caused him to miss time. The Ravens should feature an improved offensive line and playmaker group, so a repeat MVP performance could be on the horizon for Lamar Jackson.

Offensive Line Help

Prior to the 2020 season, perennial all-pro guard Marshall Yanda retired, leaving a hole on the Ravens’ offensive line. During the year, all-pro pass protecting tackle Ronnie Stanley tore his ACL, forcing him to miss significant time. Stanley is expected to be ready for week one, so Lamar will have his left tackle back.

During the offseason, the Ravens made additions to their line. To replace Orlando Brown Jr, Baltimore signed ex-Steeler tackle Alejandro Villanueva. Villanueva has been a consistently above-average tackle since entering the league in 2015, grading out above 70 in five of his six seasons per PFF. The Ravens also drafted guard Ben Cleveland in the third round. Cleveland projects as a potential day one starter and is a depth piece at worst.

Year-Over-Year Improvement

The narrative that Lamar Jackson is a poor passer is without much backing. Lamar operates out of a run-first offense, making him a low-volume passer. Equating Jackson’s lack of opportunity with a lack of talent is a disservice to his game. During the 2019 season, Jackson’s MVP campaign, he threw at a league-average/above-average level in terms of playerprofiler’s accuracy metrics. Jackson finished with a 70.9 true completion percentage and a 75.8 clean pocket completion percentage, both ranking within the top fifteen in the league. In 2020, Jackson finished with 74.9 and 76.9 in those identical metrics, suggesting that Lamar is in fact getting better as a thrower. For all we know, the best is yet to come.

Dynamic Passing Offense

Lamar will not have to shoulder the same load that he has done in previous years. The Baltimore front office made significant investments to overhaul their passing game. While Baltimore has previously invested in size-speed specimens or deep threats, they focused on acquiring route-running specialists with yac or contested-catch skills this offseason. The Ravens drafted Minnesota wide receiver Rashod Bateman with the 27th pick in the draft and selected Tylan Wallace in the fourth round. The Ravens also signed Sammy Watkins, but the two rookie wideouts are the main cause for optimism. Wallace dominated for years at Oklahoma State and will give Lamar a separator on the outside. Bateman can win from anywhere on the field, and he boasts sub 4.40 speed. The new-look Ravens’ offense could transform into a more balanced attack, and Lamar Jackson could be the main beneficiary. 

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