By: Andy Davies

The San Francisco 49ers are one of the most successful franchises in NFL history. Only the New England Patriots and Pittsburgh Steelers (both 6) have more Super Bowl wins than the 49ers (5). The 49ers’ five Super Bowls all came between the years of 1981 and 1994. They have lost two since, in the 2012 and 2019 seasons. The quarterbacks that led the 49ers to the Lombardi Trophy were Hall of Famers Joe Montana and Steve Young. Three of those five wins saw Montana as the starter and Young as the backup.

Young is seen by many as the best backup quarterback in history, considering the gold jacket that he earned despite many years as the backup to Montana. He would win a Super Bowl as the starter after the franchise moved on from Montana. Ever since Young decided to hang up his cleats, the 49ers have struggled to find his replacement. Have they found the guy in Trey Lance?

Perhaps, but here is why the quarterback situation involving Lance and current starter Jimmy Garoppolo could prevent the 49ers from winning the NFC West during the 2021 season.

Struggles Since Young

Jeff Garcia was the man to come in for Young. During his five seasons in the Bay, he threw for 113 touchdowns and 56 interceptions as well as 16,408 passing yards. He had a 35-36 record as a starter for the 49ers in the regular season and a 1-2 record in the postseason, meaning he never hit the heights of his predecessor.

Alex Smith was the number one overall pick in 2005, shattering Aaron Rodgers’ dreams. However, he was a good quarterback, not a great quarterback. Colin Kaepernick replaced Smith and took the 49ers to the Super Bowl. They ended up losing to the Baltimore Ravens in a game often called the ”˜Blackout Bowl’. Kaepernick failed to live up to the standards he set that season.

He would be kicked out of the league for taking the knee in a protest against police brutality in 2016. He has not played a snap in the NFL since. Jimmy Garoppolo was traded from the Patriots to the 49ers midway through the 2017 season. He gave hope to the organization after winning all five of the games he started in 2017. The fanbase had hope going into the 2018 season.

Many non-49ers fans had San Francisco down as their dark horse for the season. A season-ending injury to Garoppolo in Week 3 saw the starting role shared between Nick Mullens and C.J. Beathard. However, the 49ers finished 4-12 as they went into 2019 with the second overall pick. Nick Bosa was selected and transformed the defense of San Francisco and Jimmy G had the best season of his career. He threw for 3,978 passing yards, 27 touchdowns and 13 interceptions. Despite these stats, Garoppolo saw his production limited in the NFC Championship game as the coaching staff decided to use more of their running game. This led to many questions leading to the Super Bowl. The 49ers threw away a ten-point lead in the fourth quarter as they would end up losing to the Kansas City Chiefs in Super Bowl 54.

Garoppolo was criticized heavily for an overthrown pass to Emmanuel Sanders that would have given San Francisco back the lead. His 2020 season saw a mixture of poor form and injury. During the 2021 offseason, the 49ers traded up with the Miami Dolphins to gain the number three overall pick. They took Lance with the pick, showcasing their intentions to eventually move off from Garoppolo. There is now talk of whether San Francisco and head coach Kyle Shanahan will start Lance in week one. The other scenarios discussed are either Lance coming in mid-season or sitting out the whole campaign as the backup to Garoppolo. The uncertainty will have a significant impact on the 49ers’ season.

The Strength of the NFC West

This is a problem that will affect all four teams in the best division in the NFL. There is a chance that all four teams can make the playoffs. Los Angeles has an exciting new quarterback in 2009 first overall pick Matthew Stafford. Both the Seattle Seahawks and Arizona Cardinals have quarterbacks in Russell Wilson and Kyler Murray that they would never dream of trading away. Meanwhile, the 49ers’ starting quarterback is largely unpopular by fans, due to a mixture of the overthrown pass in the Super Bowl, his poor 2020 campaign and his injury record.

San Francisco has the least trusted quarterback in the division. With the position being one of the most crucial in all sports, it does not bode well for a team when there is uncertainty in the position. Garoppolo may be benched at some point during the season for Lance. However, the 49ers would be putting a rookie that will still be learning the system into the toughest division in the NFL.

Learning From Mahomes, Jackson, Tua and Burrow

If San Francisco are to help Lance succeed, they will need to take some lessons from recent draft classes. Patrick Mahomes, widely seen as the best quarterback in the league, spent all but one game of his 2017 rookie season as a backup to Alex Smith. The Chiefs then traded Smith the following offseason and Mahomes has never looked back. In his first three full seasons as a starter in the NFL, he has reached two Super Bowls, winning one. He has also been crowned MVP and Super Bowl MVP and reached three successive AFC Championship games. All three have been at home. On the flip side, 2020 first overall pick Joe Burrow started in week one of his rookie year. He wouldn’t last the season, only playing ten games before injury curtailed his first NFL campaign. He was impressive before his injury but there are no guarantees he will be the same player when he returns.

Lamar Jackson was a backup to Joe Flacco during his 2018 rookie year but won the starting role midseason. He has since gone on to win an MVP award and is the future of the franchise. Meanwhile, the Miami Dolphins brought Tua Tagovailoa in mid-season but he struggled in his rookie season. He is seen to already be on the hot seat, with many feeling the Dolphins rushed him in. These examples all show there are reasons for the 49ers to be hasty when it comes to choosing when to bring Lance into the starting role.

Lance Or Garoppolo In 2021?

The 49ers will have to decide soon who their starter will be in 2021. Considering Lance has only played one full season (2019), he is likely to start the season as the backup. He only threw for a combined total of 31 passing attempts, two touchdowns and 1 interception across the 2018 and 2020 seasons, albeit the latter campaign being disrupted by the pandemic. He is likely to be a work in progress but his 28 touchdowns and 0 interceptions in 2019 mean that he is one for the future.

Garoppolo will likely start in week one but it was clear from the NFC Championship game that Shanahan doesn’t completely trust him.

Jimmy G is a capable quarterback but his health is a concern. Expect Garoppolo to remain as the starter provided the 49ers are winning games but for Lance to come in should Garoppolo either be injured or start the season poorly.

Should this happen, this will be the end of Garoppolo’s time in San Francisco. Depending on timing, he will then be traded either before the deadline or in the 2022 offseason.

Can The 49ers Returning Players Avoid A Repeat Of 2020?

This is key if the 49ers are to challenge for both the NFC West and the NFC. After earning the number one seed and reaching Super Bowl 54 during the 2019 campaign, San Francisco finished 6-10 in 2020 and bottom of the division. A ”˜Super Bowl Hangover’ played its part but the main cause of such a decline was down to a colossal amount of injuries the team suffered. Along with the aforementioned Garoppolo, the 49ers also saw Bosa, Dee Ford, George Kittle, Raheem Mostert, Deebo Samuel and Solomon Thomas miss large chunks of the 2020 season due to injury.

San Francisco had 33 players reported questionable and there were 186 occasions when the 49ers reported a player on injured reserve. They had the second-most injuries of any team in the NFL over the past twenty years. Should all these players come back, then this 49ers roster will be one of the best in the league. This will make life much easier for whoever the San Francisco starting quarterback is.

However, from the strength of the division to the uncertainty at quarterback, San Francisco will find it tough to win the NFC West.

The post Why the QB situation may prevent the 49ers from winning the NFC West appeared first on Pro Football Mania.

QB or Bust?

Securing a Franchise QB has become the Holy Grail for most NFL teams.  Some are fortunate enough to find guys in the middle rounds of the NFL Rookie Draft like Dak Prescott and Russell Wilson.  On rare occasions, we see a veteran QB traded to a new team to revive his career like Ryan Tannehill.  The most common occurrence though: teams will invest high draft picks to land the next Elite QB and it never pans out.  Here, I will discuss three different QBs that are at a crossroads with their current teams and what their current outlook is for 2021. 

Drew Lock, Denver Broncos

Drew Lock was an exciting 2019 prospect out of Mizzou.  After he was drafted by Denver in the second round, he sat behind Joe Flacco for most of his rookie season before being called on to start his first game in Week 13.  From that point, he led Denver to a 4-1 finish which gave the Broncos high hopes for him going into his second year. 

Lock’s 2020 season was filled with ups and downs (mainly “downs”).  He struggled with accuracy issues, turnovers and could not sustain offensive drives.  His interception rate was the second highest in the league, he had the worst completion percentage, and his QB rating was only better than Darnold, Wentz, and Haskins (YIKES!).  With Denver going 4-9 in games with Lock as the starter, confidence in the young QB has been shot. 

As of March 2021, Drew Lock is still expected to start for the Broncos this Fall.  Although it was rumored that Denver was in on the Deshaun Watson sweepstakes, I doubt anything happens on that front due to other circumstances currently surrounding the Houston QB.  All the top QB free agents have been signed at this point, so Denver only has the Draft (or trade) to address the position that currently only has Brett Rypien and Jeff Driskel behind Lock.  The Broncos’ first pick is ninth overall which could be in range of one of the top-tier QB prospects.  It will be interesting to see what the Broncos decide on Draft Day. 

Daniel Jones, New York Giant 

Many were shocked when the NY Giants selected Daniel Jones at sixth overall during the 2019 Draft.  There wasn’t much buzz around Jones leading up to the Draft or anything spectacular that stood out about his profile.  Dwayne Haskins was viewed as the better prospect, but in hindsight, that probably would not have worked out so well for them.  

Jones started 12 games as a rookie, flashing high upside at times.  The biggest issue for him was holding onto the ball.  He had 18 fumbles in Year 1, just five short of Daunte Culpepper’s single-season record of 23.  In his second season, he did a better job securing the football with just 11 fumbles which still leaves room for improvement.  A possible byproduct of his focus on ball security, we did not see as many big plays from Jones in 2020.  Despite starting 14 games, he didn’t even hit 3,000 yards passing and had less than half the passing TDs as he did as a rookie (2019: 24 TDs, 2020: 11 TDs).  

As we get closer to the 2021 NFL Draft, the Giants seem to have full confidence in Jones going into his 3^rd season.  They are determined to improve the receivers around Jones.  As I’m writing this, Free Agent WR Kenny Golladay is visiting with the team to discuss a potential deal.  They also signed former Vikings TE Kyle Rudolph as a secondary option to the inconsistent Evan Engram.  Currently holding the 11^th overall pick, they will also be in a prime position to draft one of the elite WR prospects if they choose to go that route. 

Sam Darnold, New York Jets (for now) 

 The 2018 QB Class was an interesting group.  Sam Darnold, Baker Mayfield, Josh Allen, and Lamar Jackson were all polarizing prospects with high ceilings, but each of them also had major flaws.  Sam Darnold was widely expected to go as the first overall pick to Cleveland, but when they selected Mayfield instead, the Jets felt they were getting a steal when Darnold fell to them at the third pick.  It’s now three years later and since that point, the Jets are on their third coaching staff, haven’t had a winning season, and Darnold now has even more question marks than he did as a prospect in 2018.  

After a pedestrian rookie season from Darnold playing under HC Todd Bowles, New York brought in Adam Gase for the 2019 season.  We all know how that story goes.  While Darnold showed mild improvement in his second year, 2020 was a disaster.  Darnold had the fifth highest interception rate, the worst QB rating, and the third worst completion percentage among QBs.  The team only won 2 games in 2020 and Gase was quickly fired at the end of the season.  

Now, former 49ers DC Robert Saleh will take over as head coach.  Holding the second overall pick of the 2021 NFL Draft, he has plenty of options to go about addressing the team’s needs, such as taking QBs Zach Wilson or Justin Fields, drafting a top offensive lineman to help protect Darnold, or trading back to acquire additional picks.  Saleh and GM Joe Douglas have been coy when asked about the future of Darnold with the organization.  At times, they seem committed to building the team around him, but it was recently reported that they are taking calls from other teams looking to acquire Darnold.  A trade seems imminent, but the report below suggests there might not be much interest from other teams: 

The post Three QBs With One Last Chance in 2021 appeared first on Pro Football Mania.

With free agency about to get under way this week it means the start of the season is here. One area that everyone is struggling with this year is to get their cap space down to the right amount. Some teams are sitting pretty with plenty of available money and some are struggling and having to make cuts. We look at how the teams are coping with getting their budgets down and why they need to make some moves quick?

Why are teams struggling to meet the leagues budget?

With the cap space budget decreasing this year it has left many teams scrambling around. The league has set the budget of $182.5m for this upcoming season. The previous year the budget was $198.5m. The reason behind this reduction is due to the Covid pandemic and the drop in money coming into the league. This is understandable given the lack of crowds and money coming in but it has caused a financial headache for many teams.

Another issue is that the decisions you make now can affect the finances of your team for multiple years to come. In the last seven years the salary cap has gone up around $10m each year. So not only has the cap reduced by $16m because of the pandemic but most teams would of expected an increase of around $10m. Decisions that were made back in 2018 before anyone knew about the pandemic will have an affect now.

For example the Cleveland Browns signed Jarvis Landry to a five year deal back in 2018 for $75.5m. When Landry signed his contract stipulated he would get certain amounts of money through different ways. He got $47m in guarantees and the rest as a mixture of different bonuses during his five year contract. However, each year a certain amount of that contract would go against the teams cap space. In 2018 it would be $15.5m and then in 2019 it was $14.05m. This year its going to be $14.75m and the team is going to have to pay it unless they can renegotiate with the player.

This type of contract is why many teams are struggling with the sudden drop in cap space. Back in 2018 most teams would of been used to having the regular yearly increases so would be happy to splash the cash. However, with the sudden problems the pandemic has caused you are seeing teams have to cut or renegotiate with players when they might not really want to.

How are teams figuring out the problem?

One common way of bringing the cap down and meeting the budget is to renegotiate a players contract. There are many ways you can do this by changing a players contract. A common way to reduce the cap is to use cash in the present and spread out the cap hit over multiple years. A way to do this is to give the player a new contract and move the money into a signing bonus. This wont count against the cap and the player still gets the same amount of money that was originally owed to him as long as its fully guaranteed.

Another way that the team can move money is by changing the players contract and putting in ‘voidable years’. This seems to be a very popular choice at the moment. The main benefit of putting in voidable years is that you don’t have to pay the bill now. However, you will have to pay the bill eventually and for most of these teams it will be in the next two or three years.

For example if you look at Tom Brady’s new contract that he signed with the Tampa Bay Bucs then you can see how the money moves down the road. The deal he had before was for two years and $50m now he has another year and will play in 2021 and 2022. The amount of money he will receive is going to be $50m again but he wont get it all over the two years. He will cost the Bucs $9m in 2021 and $16m in 2022 which is a lot less than the potential $50m. However, in 2023 the Bucs will lose $24m in cap space and there is a chance that Brady will of retired.

Why are teams willing to kick the can down the road?

So there are a few reasons that teams are willing to go down this route in the hope it will be all work out. The main reason is that hopefully the Covid pandemic will only last for so long and the money will come back. Once the vaccine programs have finished and everyone has protection there is no reason why you cant have a full stadium again. In the last seven years the cap has gone up around $10m every year and so the cap will increase in the future. Although some teams will have bigger problems it will help to pay the bills.

Another reason that the teams are willing to gamble their future is the incoming TV deals. Although fans haven’t been able to attend the games it has worked well for TV and all the games were played. Another positive is that by having games moved around, due to Covid, it has shown that people are willing to watch the NFL on multiple nights of the week. Also, with the arrival of Amazon and Nickelodeon showing games the extra competition will increase the amount of money coming into the league.

On top of that the new gambling laws in America will be another reason that money will come in. The NFL are likely to show games on a Tuesday or Wednesday night as it will increase betting revenue on individual games. The American gaming association estimated that $150bn was wagered illegally each year before the rules changed in 2018. Currently not every state allows gambling but more have recently and you can see it becoming even more soon. With more people gambling and the NFL willing to move games more money will come through to the NFL and therefore each team.

It is understandable why teams are willing to kick the can down the road but it is still a gamble. There are still many unknowns with what is going on in the world at the moment. We want full stadiums in time for this upcoming season but its not a cast iron guarantee currently. The NFL have not said they will have games on four or five nights of the week which would be great for the gambling industry. Also, we don’t know the exact figures for the latest TV deal. However, you have to feel that most of these are the next logical steps and that is what the teams are gambling on.

The post Cap Space Issues and How the Teams Are Getting Around appeared first on Pro Football Mania.