Current Vegas Odds for MVP (FanDuel Sportsbook):

• Mahomes: -500
• Burrow: +600
• Allen: +1000
• Hurts: +1100

It’s important to look deeply into the numbers each of these players has put up to grasp each of their claims to MVP. Hurts has thrown for 3,472 yards in 14 games. For reference, Mahomes has thrown for 4,720 yards, Burrow for 4,260, and Allen for 4,029, all in 15 games. Allen leads all four in passing attempts, leaving his completion percentage at 63.4, which is also the lowest of the four. But Buffalo’s offense goes almost exclusively through him, to a greater extent than any of the others.

This is also shown in the running game, where Allen’s 746 rushing yards dwarfs Mahomes’s 321 and Burrow’s 247. Hurts has 747 in one less game. He also has 13 rushing touchdowns, which is six more than Allen’s total. Hurts’s 13 rushing touchdowns is just one away from Cam Newton’s 14 in 2011 for the most by a quarterback in a single season in the history of the NFL. With two regular season games remaining, should Hurts find himself on track to play, Newton’s record won’t be standing much longer.

The comparison of Hurts and Newton is interesting to examine further. Newton won the NFL’s MVP award in 2015, a season in which he too led his team to a season with just a single loss as a starter. But Hurts’s numbers are better in certain areas.

2015 Cam Newton (16 starts):

• 3,837 passing yards
• 38 passing touchdowns
• 7.8 yards gained per pass attempt
• 10 interceptions
• 636 rushing yards
• 10 rushing touchdowns

2022 Jalen Hurts (through 14 starts):

• 3,472 passing yards
• 22 passing touchdowns
• 8.2 yards gained per pass attempt
• 5 interceptions
• 747 rushing yards
• 13 rushing touchdowns

The only knock on Hurts’s chances for MVP is that missed start against the Cowboys on Christmas Eve. Mahomes, Burrow, and Allen all have an additional start to their credit. It isn’t clear at this point if Hurts will be missing either of the Eagles’ remaining games, with speculation lending itself in either direction at the moment. If he plays in the last two games, his chances are really good. If he doesn’t play in one or both of the remaining games, he’ll fall out entirely, and Mahomes will likely end up with the award on his reputation, let alone his stats.

The post Does Jalen Hurts Deserve to be MVP? appeared first on Pro Football Mania.

By: Reese Nasser

In the last twenty years, the NFL MVP award has become an award that almost strictly goes to quarterbacks. Only four of the last twenty winners were position players. The award is recognized as a quarterback award and is nearly impossible to win if you don’t play the position. The last non-quarterback to win MVP was running back Adrian Peterson in 2012. 

The last-position player to receive an MVP vote that wasn’t a QB was Todd Gurley in 2017. He finished with eight votes and finished second to quarterback Tom Brady, who received 40 votes. 

This past season, only three players received MVP votes. All three players were quarterbacks; Josh Allen of the Buffalo Bills, Patrick Mahomes of the Kansas City Chiefs, and Aaron Rodgers of the Green Bay Packers. 

Tennessee Titans running back Derrick Henry is coming off of a season where he is just the seventh player to surpass 2000 rushing yards in one season. He also added another 17 touchdowns on the ground. Even with this monstrous season, he didn’t receive a single MVP vote. 

Outside of running backs, no position player has received an MVP award since 1986 when New York Giants linebacker Lawrence Taylor won it. The last time a tight end received a vote was in the year 1986 when New York Giants tight end Mark Bavaro received a vote. 

It has been over 30 years since a tight end has received an MVP vote. A tight end has never even won the AP Offensive Player of the Year award.

The biggest issue in regards to skill players not winning this award is that a majority of their stats go to the quarterback as well. If a receiver catches 15 touchdown passes, that means that a quarterback had to throw 15 touchdowns. The stats will fall into both categories, almost always falling in favor of the quarterback. 

While a tight end has never one, we are living in the time of the high-powered offense, where it could potentially happen someday soon. There are multiple tight ends that are at the forefront of the NFL. There is potential at the position and the award could make its way to the position soon.

That begs the question of, what would a tight end need to do to not just earn a vote but to win the entire award? In a simple sense, it would be one of the greatest seasons of all time. When taking both a statistical approach and a team approach, the tight end would have to dominate in both ways. By being a leader on the team and being their driving force on offense.

From a numbers standpoint, tight ends have blossomed in recent years. The very best at the position is able to take over games. But even the current greats at the position haven’t done enough to garner the necessary attention to be acknowledged for the award. 

Current Tampa Bay Buccaneers tight end Rob Gronkowski is arguably the greatest to ever play his position. His 2011 campaign is one of the single greatest seasons in NFL history. At 22 years old the second-year tight end caught 90 passes for 1327 yards. He also reached the end zone on 18 different occasions. Even with this performance, Gronkowski was not an MVP finalist, but his quarterback Tom Brady was. 

In recent seasons, tight ends such as Travis Kelce and George Kittle have taken over the position. Kelce has steadily improved since breaking out in 2016. He has five consecutive seasons of over 1000 receiving yards and has had two seasons with double-digit touchdown receptions. 

Kelce has been one of the most dominant players in the NFL for years now but has never found his way into the MVP conversation. Understandably so when you look at who his quarterback is. As Kelce approaches 32-years old, his MVP window could already be closed. But the same can’t be said for Kelce’s counterpart, George Kittle.

Kittle could prove to be the most likely candidate to finally win the award, especially when looking at the team that he plays on. Kittle could be the main target on the San Francisco 49ers roster in 2021. His stock could go up even more if San Francisco chooses to go with rookie quarterback Trey Lance, who could not only expand the offense but could also look at Kittle to be his security blanket. 

Kittle is coming off of a down season where he appeared in just eight games. But the 27-year old tight end should be ready to perform at a high level this season. He could prove to be one of the league’s best past catchers this season. And that is what it would take for him to bring home the MVP award. 

If Gronkowski wasn’t able to take home the award in 2011 with 18 touchdowns, then it could take scoring 20 to win it. Kittle could be the player to do it. A stat line of 20 touchdowns, 100 receptions, and over 1500 receiving yards could potentially get it done. And while that would be asking a lot, that could prove to be what it takes for a tight end to finally bring the MVP award home. 

The post What would it take for a tight end to win MVP? appeared first on Pro Football Mania.

By: Adam Hulse (@AdamHulseSports)

With the 2021 NFL season less than three months away, now is a good time to take a look at some of the season-long individual awards and predict who will win each one. The betting odds used in this article are according to the Draft Kings Sportsbook.

MVP: Josh Allen (+1000)

Quarterback Josh Allen of the Buffalo Bills is currently the co-second favorite with Aaron Rodgers behind only Patrick Mahomes (+400) to win the NFL MVP this upcoming season. Allen had an incredible 2020 season and ranked towards the top of the NFL in almost every statistical passing category. He was 5th in passing yards with 4544, 5th in passing touchdowns with 37, 4th in completion percentage with 69.2, 3rd in QBR with 81.7, and 4th in rating with 107.2. He also chipped in an additional 421 yards and 8 touchdowns in the rushing game.

This was a true breakout season for Allen. He played exponentially better than he did in his first two seasons and there is a great reason to believe that he will be as good or better this upcoming year. The Bills organization is committed to him and his development, and offensive coordinator Brian Daboll has designed the offensive scheme specifically for him to succeed. They play according to his strengths and have built and very solid offensive around him.

This offseason they have continued to improve their offensive line and also signed Emmanuel Sanders as an additional weapon in the passing game. With another year of chemistry with the players on the roster last year, as well as the coaching staff, the future looks extremely bright for Allen. He is the main reason why the Bills are one of the favorites to win it all heading into this season and it will be exciting to see if he can build off of his breakout season.

Throwing accuracy was the biggest issue in his first two seasons but he actually turned it into a strength last year when he had the third-best completion percentage in the entire NFL. If he has really fixed that problem with his game, he is one of the most dangerous weapons in the league and will be that way for many years to come. All signs point to another huge year for Allen. The NFL MVP award this season is well within his reach.

Offensive Rookie of the Year: Justin Fields (+700)

When the Chicago Bears selected Justin Fields out of Ohio State with the 11th overall pick in the NFL Draft it was not to be a backup to Andy Dalton, but to be the starter and the quarterback of the future. Even if Fields is not the week one starter, which he may or may not be, he will almost definitely take over the job very early in the season. He was an absolute superstar in college and could be considered a steal where he was drafted, especially considering he was a projected second overall pick for about two full years.

Fields is now in a favorable situation in Chicago on a Bears team that just made the playoffs last year. The biggest problem for them last season was the absolutely terrible quarterback play so Fields has a real shot to be a solution there. He will operate in an offense with a superstar wide receiver in Allen Robinson and a breakout running back in David Montgomery. Fields is set up for success and has a real chance to make a statement right away.

Trevor Lawrence (+400) is the favorite to win the award, which is fair because of his astronomical talent and being the first overall pick, but he is on a Jaguars team that has a serious lack of talent and that could really hold him back a bit initially. Najee Harris (+500) will be sharing the workload in Pittsburgh and is on a pass-heavy team while Trey Lance (+600) is in a quarterback competition with Jimmy Garoppolo in San Francisco. All things considered, Fields is the best bet to take home the award right now.

Defensive Rookie of the Year: Micah Parsons (+500)

Drafted 12th overall out of Penn State by the Dallas Cowboys, Micah Parsons is a truly unique defensive weapon with a very wide skill set. He has the ability to contribute in a number of ways and has no real weaknesses in his game. He can rush the passer, help in run defense, and is solid in pass coverage as well. He can line up at multiple positions and provides excellent versatility. He is the betting favorite to win the award and rightfully so.

Parsons will join a Dallas defensive unit that already features DeMarcus Lawrence and Jaylon Smith. New defensive coordinator Dan Quinn will be able to be very creative with his defensive schemes and use Parsons all over the field in different ways. Quinn is a highly respected defensive coach and found a ton of success in Seattle as the main facilitator of the famous Legion of Boom. He can be trusted to get the best out of Parsons and if he plays up to his full potential then he has a great chance to win the award.

Defensive Player of the Year: Derwin James (+2500)

After Derwin James was selected 17th overall in the 2018 NFL Draft by the Chargers, the extremely versatile safety out of Florida State made an immediate impact. He quickly became not only one of the top rookies in his class, but one of the best defensive players in the entire league. In fact, a very strong case can be made that he is already the best safety in the NFL. He filled the stat sheet for the defense of the Chargers and contributed in a wide variety of ways his rookie season. He accounted for 105 tackles, 3 interceptions, 3.5 sacks, and 13 passes defended.

His incredible season earned him a selection as a first-team All-Pro. Additionally, he received consideration for both Defensive Rookie of the Year and even Defensive Player of the Year. This was obviously an amazing year for James and the fact that it was just his rookie season made it even more impressive. Fair expectations can be made that we haven’t even seen the best version of him yet and that is a very exciting concept for the potential of his future.

Unfortunately, he missed almost the entire next two seasons due to injury. The wait for his return is now over as James is fully recovered and ready to go for the 2021 campaign. As long as he can stay healthy this year, and is able to get back to his usual form, James will resume being one of the best defensive players in the NFL. His unique skill set allows him to contribute in every defensive aspect and he truly is one of a kind player in the league right now. Nobody can do what he does on the level he does it and that’s what makes him so special. He is currently the 8th favorite according to betting odds but it would be no surprise at all if he won the award when it’s all said and done this year.

The post Predicting who will win the top individual awards appeared first on Pro Football Mania.

By Calvin K (Twitter: @Calvin_SGF)

There’s no doubt at this point that the NFL has become a pass-first league, and quarterbacks are now more important to a team’s success than they’ve ever been. Anyone can see this evidently when looking at the historical winners of the MVP (Most Valuable Player) award.

The last 14 recipients of the award have all been quarterbacks, and given what this article opened with, it might seem strange to argue for a player from another position to win. However, considering Christian McCaffrey’s talent, it’s not a stretch to say he could be a candidate. This article is not, by any stretch, trying to argue that McCaffrey is the MVP favorite, however, it should convince you that he is a better candidate than any sleeper QB. Here are three reasons why.

McCaffrey’s numbers are historically good

This is the first and most obvious case to be considered when evaluating CMC’s MVP case. Due to injuries, the superstar RB was only on the field for three games last year, but in 2019, his numbers were absolutely mind-boggling.

In 2019, McCaffrey was absolutely dominant. His 1,387 rushing yards along with 1,005 receiving yards made him just the third player to have a 1,000-1,000 season, and he is in elite company, as Marshall Faulk and Roger Craig are the only ones to ever accomplish the feat. McCaffrey’s 2,392 scrimmage yards that year were good for the third-most in a season all-time, behind only Chris Johnson and the aforementioned Faulk.

The “last 14 MVPs have all been QBs” statement is usually a strong argument against a player from another position, however, McCaffrey’s numbers alone mean he warrants special consideration. He received just that in 2019, finishing third in offensive player of the year voting, and there’s reason to believe that he could be higher in 2021 if there isn’t a dominant Lamar Jackson/Michael Thomas this time around.

There is precedent for choosing RBs as MVPs

QBs have dominated the MVP race as of late, but if a quarterback doesn’t win, the winner has been likely to be a running back. In fact, running backs has been the only other offensive position in the league’s history to have a player receive the award. Yes, you read that correctly.

Any running back who wants to be considered must be historically good, but we’ve already established that McCaffrey fits that description. In fact, McCaffrey’s numbers are arguably better than any RB MVP we’ve ever had.

McCaffrey’s season had more scrimmage yards than any RB MVP year (Faulk and Johnson didn’t win MVP in their biggest years), and while he did score significantly less touchdowns than most, he still deserves to be looked at in a positive light. The lack of touchdowns isn’t as concerning, essentially because the game has changed to where offenses are almost always pass-first in the red zone. If you eliminate that concern, McCaffrey beats almost anyone in stats. Add that to the fact that he’d probably still be good as a pure WR in the NFL, and you’ve got the full package for a potential darkhorse run.

The QB candidates have their concerns

Like mentioned before, McCaffrey is not the favorite to win MVP, and a player like Patrick Mahomes will certainly have much higher betting odds, as he should. However, Mahomes and the other QBs do have concerns that could limit their MVP cases.

Mahomes is a fantastic player, but he had a historically lucky campaign in one category: interceptions. Mahomes had a whopping 16 dropped picks in 2020 alone, which begs the question: if a few had gone the other way, how good would his season have looked? Josh Allen, another candidate, seems to have hit his ceiling, and most experts agree that it’s doubtful that he gets much better than last year. Russell Wilson struggled with turnovers last year, and with Seattle shifting more towards a run-first offense again, he might not get the opportunity to compete. Lamar Jackson was figured out by stingy defenses last year, Dak Prescott doesn’t have a huge sample size, Aaron Rodgers is getting older, Kyler Murray was hurt, and when Murray was healthy, he didn’t show an absolutely massive ceiling for the most part.

Why McCaffrey could win

The previous paragraph was undoubtedly chock-full of cherry-picked narratives, but it’s not to say that all, or many of those are true/or will most likely come true. However, it is beneficial and interesting to make a point about darkhorse picks. A darkhorse pick is never one that someone expects, and usually, they have to get some breaks to truly be in the race for #1. As established, McCaffrey is a very talented player, and he should be fully recovered from his injuries in time for 2021. If he regains his old form, he probably still isn’t likely to win MVP in place of a QB, however, with a few breaks, it’s definitely possible, which is why his darkhorse argument is very convincing.

The post Christian McCaffrey NOT a QB Is the Ultimate Darkhorse To Win MVP appeared first on Pro Football Mania.