Daniel Racz @Danny___Dimes

Introduction

The recent infatuation with stacking in best ball has emphasized identifying good offenses. While stacks from teams like the Buffalo Bills, Kansas City Chiefs, and Dallas Cowboys will undoubtedly be productive this year, they require significant draft capital. There are a few offenses that have the potential to wildly outperform their ADPs and come in clutch down the stretch. 

San Francisco 49ers

There is a lot of uncertainty in San Francisco, and with uncertainty comes opportunity. George Kittle (TE3, ADP of 26) and Brandon Aiyuk (WR27, ADP of 60) are priced as if the 49ers will not be a high-volume passing offense. However, Trey Sermon (RB27, ADP of 72) and Raheem Mostert (RB29, ADP of 83) are priced as if the team will not run the ball often. 

If the 49ers pass the ball often, Aiyuk and Kittle (and to some extent, Deebo Samuel) can outperform their ADPs in a meaningful way. If the offense runs the ball a lot, Mostert and Sermon are criminally undervalued. If the 49ers’ offense is dynamic, perhaps every piece of the offense can have an above-average win rate. The 49ers also have an easy playoff schedule, including matchups against the Falcons, Titans, and Texans, allowing them to smash in tournaments. 

New York Giants

Am I a homer for including the Giants? Undoubtedly. Do I sincerely believe that the Giants offense is drafted much closer to its floor in comparison to its ceiling? Confidently. The hesitancy around Saquon Barkley is warranted, but he offers unparalleled upside. Going routinely in the middle of the first round (ADP of 5.4 currently) is a crime. Later in drafts, wide receivers like Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton are undervalued. Shepard, though injury prone, routinely gives you usable weeks year after year. Darius Slayton is likely to play on the outside in most three-wide receiver sets and is excellent injury insurance in the likely event that either Shepard or Kenny Golladay misses games this season.  

The last important piece of the offense is Daniel Jones. After his less-than-stellar 12 total touchdown season in 2020, Jones can not do much worse. However, he does not need to at his current price. With an ADP of 167 at QB23, Jones offers legitimate upside. While his floor is certainly lower than later quarterbacks like Derek Carr, his rushing upside and dynamic weapons give him a chance to be a top 12 quarterback.  

Washington Football Team

The team without a name is not a team without meaningful fantasy contributors. The revamped offense is perhaps the league’s most slept on. Running back Antonio Gibson (RB13, ADP of 16.7) is primed for a breakout. Coach Ron Rivera has stressed that the team wants to unleash him in the passing game, a la Christian McCaffrey in Carolina. Gibson’s upside should not be underestimated, he has overall RB1 firmly within his range of outcomes. The addition of Quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick (QB21, ADP of 154.8) can keep the team’s weapons relevant. Fitz has supported multiple top wide receivers, including Devante Parker’s miraculous 2019 season. Fitzmagic should easily keep both Terry Mclaurin (WR11, ADP of 30.7) and Curtis Samuel (WR41, ADP of 85.2) fantasy relevant. Given Fitz’s gunslinger play style, rookie deep threat Dyami Brown (WR78, ADP of 176.9) is also worth a flier.

The post Top three undervalued offenses in 2021 appeared first on Pro Football Mania.

By: Corey Hietpas

As we’ve seen before, QB Play can dramatically shift from year to year. QBs are human, defenses adjust, receivers get hurt, and coaches change every year. These factors among many others go into how a QB runs their offense year after year. We as fans can forget that all these team and mental changes can affect a QB and an offense as dramatically as they do, and we expect the same or increased level of play from our team’s QB. With that in mind, I wanted to look at a few of the starting QBs who could be considered “overrated” due to these changing factors or other reasons. Below I list 3 QBs that I feel fit this overrated category entering the 2021 season.

Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills

I’m sorry Bills’ Mafia. Even though Josh Allen makes my list of overrated QBs, he is one of my favorites to watch in the NFL. He brings excitement to every pass, and he saw it all come together in a phenomenal 2020 season. When comparing to 2019, Allen had nearly 1500 more passing yards, 17 more passing TDs, 1 more interception, and he increased his completion percentage by 12% and his yards per attempt by 1.2. Basically, he was better in every major statistical category for QBs. This was a historically good rise for Allen. Considering all this, my argument for him being overrated is mainly that he’s due for regression. In my opinion, we’ve seen the lowest level of play and now the highest level of play from Allen. It feels like he’ll settle somewhere in between, but he’ll likely be closer to his performance of 2020 than 2018 or 2019. I also believe the lack of a rushing attack is going to start negatively affecting the offense more. Allen is a great runner himself, but the Bills’ RBs are just not good. Teams now recognize this and will game plan accordingly. Opposing defenses were caught off guard with Allen’s increased ability as a passer and were taken advantage of as a result. Now that they have a full season of film on the new and improved Josh Allen, they can adjust and be more prepared for an aerial assault when facing Buffalo.

Ryan Tannehill, Tennessee Titans

I want to start this by saying I love Ryan Tannehill. He’s been impressive with the Titans after a rough start to his career in Miami. Adam Gase almost ruined another one, but Tannehill wound up in Tennessee and has now lead his team to back-to-back playoff appearances. During these two seasons, we’ve seen a hyper-efficient passing offense from Tennessee that stems from the Derrick Henry rushing attack. Derrick Henry runs all over you, and then Ryan Tannehill takes advantage with his play-action passing attempts. It’s been magical these recent years. Sadly, I think we see Tannehill and the Titans’ offense as a whole crash back down to Earth this year. Yes, they still have Derrick Henry and AJ Brown, but that is all they have in terms of weapons. This offseason, we saw the departure of Corey Davis and Jonnu Smith. Although not stars, these two players were important for Tennessee’s offense. Davis was a good second outside receiving threat and Smith is dangerous with yards after the catch. With only one real receiving threat in AJ Brown, opposing defenses will be able to focus on stopping the almighty Derrick Henry. Let’s be real, Henry can’t be stopped, but he can be limited. With this likely scenario happening, the Titans’ offense will heavily depend on Tannehill being able to shoulder a bigger load while maintaining his recent production. When forced to pass, we saw the Titans’ offense struggle more than normal. A recent example of this was the game against the Packers in 2020 as the Titans fell behind quickly and never got back in the game. On top of all this, the Titans’ just lost their brilliant offensive coordinator of the last two years, Arthur Smith. With the departure of Arthur Smith, Corey Davis, and Jonnu Smith, I envision Ryan Tannehill struggling in 2021. 

Daniel Jones, New York Giants

First of all, I haven’t seen many people on the “hype train” for Daniel Jones, yet, but I can see a portion of fans falling into a “Jones is going to be good” trap. Not only is Saquon Barkley coming back from injury, but the team has added Kenny Golladay from free agency and Kadarius Toney with their first-round pick in the 2021 draft. On top of adding this talent, the Giants will now be in year two of Jason Garrett’s offense. We normally see a new offense take a year or two to get fully established with a new team, and we are now entering that phase for the Giants. Even considering these factors, I have no faith in Daniel Jones developing into a serviceable starting NFL QB. The biggest red flag is the ridiculous amount of turnovers Jones has had over his first two years as the starter. In just two seasons, Jones has 22 interceptions and 17 fumbles lost for a total of 39 turnovers. That total should be even higher as he has had 12 more fumbles that were recovered by the Giants in that span. That is reason enough to cast doubt on any Daniel Jones love, but to add even more, he has shown regression as a passer. His yards, completion percentage, and his average yards per pass attempt are very similar from year one to year two, but his passing TDs dropped from 24 in his rookie year to 11 in his sophomore season. One way to lose your starting job quickly is to have a lot of turnovers and not throw TDs. Do not fall victim to any narrative of Jones leaping forward in his third year.

What do we think NFL fans? Let me know! You can find me on Twitter at @corey_hietpas.

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