By: Adam Hulse (@AdamHulseSports)

The 2021 NFL season kicks off on Thursday night September 9th with the defending Super Bowl champion Tampa Bay Bucs hosting the Dallas Cowboys. The Bucs are a pretty big favorite currently, as they should be, but it is not going to be as easy for them as the betting line may suggest. Here are some reasons why the Cowboys can open the season with a big upset of the defending champs.

Dak is Back!

Dak Prescott returns for the 2021 NFL season after missing the large majority of 2020 due to a gruesome ankle injury. The Cowboys are a completely different team when Prescott is healthy and the numbers prove it. In the 2019 season, when he last played a full season, the Cowboys offense was absolutely dominant. In addition to being the number one ranked offense in the league that season, they were statistically the best offense since the 2013 Denver Broncos. Their 431.5 yards per game were the most that year by a very wide margin, ahead of the second ranked Baltimore Ravens by nearly 24 yards per game. In 2020 before the injury, Dak was on a ridiculously scorching hot pace. If he continued on his per game averages for a full season, he would have set a new NFL passing yardage record for a single season.

Prescott will look to pick up right where he left off and he could really be an even better version of himself this season. Now that he has received the mega-contract that he has been waiting for, there will be a weight lifted off his shoulders. This could allow for him to play looser and more confidently with a bit less pressure on him. This could help the Cowboys offense be even better than it already was, and that is a scary thing for opposing defenses, starting with the Bucs in the season opener.In addition, a healthy Prescott could also very well mean a big bounce-back season for Ezekiel Elliot because the defense has to respect the passing game much more. That in turn should open up more running lanes for Zeke. The other thing that will improve the Cowboys is their new weapon, CeeDee Lamb, that Prescott has not had the luxury of using for a full season yet.

The CeeDee Lamb Effect

Lamb had an excellent rookie season in 2020, recording 74 receptions for 935 yards and 5 touchdowns. What makes that even more impressive is that it was Andy Dalton throwing him the ball for most of the season rather than Prescott. He should be even better this year now that the Cowboys have their true starting quarterback and the short time that the two of them played together last year is a glimpse at what’s to come in the future. Across the five games that Prescott played last season, Lamb registered his only two games with over 100 receiving yards, his only game with multiple touchdowns, and had at least 5 receptions in each of those 5 games. He is lined up to have a monster season out of the slot for the Cowboys, with Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup working on the outside.

Improved Defense

In the 2019 NFL season, the Cowboys had the 9th ranked defense at 327 yards allowed per game. Despite bringing back almost all of their defensive roster, they regressed big time in 2020, allowing 386.4 yards per game and ranking 23rd. This lead to defensive coordinator Mike Nolan being fired after just one season. The Cowboys hired a huge upgrade for the job in Dan Quinn, who was the mastermind behind the famous Legion of Boom defense in Seattle. This will, in theory, help the Cowboys get back to playing more like a top 10 defense once again. Drafting Micah Parsons, a highly rated prospect who can do a little bit of everything, should also help them get back on track. This new look Cowboys defense may catch the Bucs off guard in week one. It has yet to be seen exactly how Quinn is going to scheme with his new team and that element of surprise could be an advantage for Dallas.

Timing Matters

There is no doubt that the Tampa Bay Bucs are one of the very best teams in the NFL. They are the favorites to once again win the NFC conference, as they should be. The fact that the Cowboys get to play them the first week of the season, rather than later on, may be the very best time for a possible upset. In the first couple of weeks in an NFL season, many teams come out a little but rusty, making upsets more likely. It sometimes takes a couple of games before teams really hit their stride and get the team chemistry down. A highly motivated Prescott getting this big opportunity in week 1 with new weapons and a better defense could be the perfect recipe for a huge upset in the very first game of the 2021 NFL season.

The post Why the Cowboys can Win Week 1 appeared first on Pro Football Mania.

By: Adam Hulse (@AdamHulseSports)

The 2021 NFL season is now less than a week away. The preseason has been completed and rosters are being finalized as teams prepare for week 1 of the regular season. Now is as good a time as any to start projecting how each team will perform this year. In particular for this article, let’s predict who the top five defenses in the NFL can be this season, counting down from 5th place and continuing all the way to the number one spot.

5. Buffalo Bills

The Bills were an average defense last year, ranking 14th in yards allowed per game with 352.5 and 16th in scoring with 23.4 points per game allowed. What’s encouraging is that they played much better defensively late in the season than they did earlier. For example, in their final six regular-season games following their bye week, they held four of their six opponents to under 20 points and then also held the Ravens to just three points in a playoff game. That gives reason for optimism heading into the 2021 NFL season, especially because head coach Sean McDermott is defensively focused. In addition, they addressed their lack of “true pass rushers” in the NFL Draft this year with first round pick Greg Rousseau and second round pick Boogie Basham. With the improved pass rush and renewed focus on defense, the Bills can get back to playing like they did in 2019 when they ranked 2nd in scoring defense at 16.2 points per game and 3rd in total defense at 298.3 yards per game.

4. San Francisco 49ers

The 49ers suffered an extreme amount of injuries in the 2020 NFL season, including their top two pass rushers in Nick Bosa and Dee Ford. Despite the fact that neither of them played much at all, in addition to all of the other injuries as well, they still managed to finish ranked 5th in total defense at 314.4 yards allowed per game. They only recorded 30 team sacks in 2020 but that number should greatly improve with their overall health, as demonstrated by their 48 team sacks in the 2019 NFL season. Lead by superstar linebacker Fred Warner, the 49ers should have another great year defensively, even without Robert Saleh as the defensive coordinator anymore after he accepted the New York Jets head coaching job.

3. Washington Football Team

Last season WFT ranked 2nd in yards allowed per game with 304.6 and 4th in scoring defense with 20.6 points allowed per game. There is good reason to believe that they could be even better this season than they were last season because of the development and progress of their young and dominant front seven. Chase Young and Montez Sweat are already one of the very best EDGE duos in the NFL and should continue to improve as they mature a bit more. The team ranked 6th in sacks last year with 47 and that number will likely go up this season. The front seven was the biggest strength of the team last season but that didn’t stop them from using their first round draft pick on linebacker Jamin Davis out of Kentucky. As long as they can keep this unit together, WFT will have one of the top defenses for many years to come.

2. Pittsburgh Steelers

The center piece to their defense, linebacker Devin Bush, only played in five games last season due to injury but the Steelers still ranked 3rd in both scoring and total defense with 19.5 and 305.8 respectively. They did lose pass rusher Bud Dupree to free agency but replaced him with a very capable veteran in Melvin Ingram. He was plagued by injuries last season, but from 2015 to 2019 he recorded 43 total sacks with the Chargers. He will pair with one of the best EDGE players in the NFL in TJ Watt, whose 15 sacks helped the Steelers lead the league in team sacks last year with a massive 56 total. In just four seasons, Watt has already accumulated 49.5 sacks and 17 forced fumbles. The Steelers have an absolute stud at all three levels of their defense, with Minkah Fitzpatrick on the back end to go with Watt on the EDGE and Bush in the middle.

1. Los Angeles Rams

The Rams were the most dominant defense in the NFL last season. Their 281.9 yards per game allowed was best in the league by a very wide margin of more than 22 yards per game. In addition, they lead the NFL in scoring defense at 18.5 points allowed per game and were second in team sacks with 53 total. They have, arguably, the best cornerback in the entire NFL in Jalen Ramsey and he’s not even their best defensive player. That is, of course, Aaron Donald. He is not only the best defensive player in the NFL but he very well may be the best overall player period. In seven season with Rams he has only missed two games total while accumulating 85.5 sacks, 19 forced fumbles, and 6 recovered fumbles despite being double or triple teamed on every single play. He is the “favorite” to once again win the Defensive Player of the Year award this season, as he should be favored every year. Based on their dominance last season, as long as they have Donald and Ramsey then there is no real reason to believe that they will regress as a defensive unit.

The post Predicting the Top 5 defenses this season appeared first on Pro Football Mania.

By: Adam Hulse (@AdamHulseSports)

The 2021 NFL season is now less than 3 weeks away. The preseason is halfway completed and rosters are being finalized as teams prepare for week 1 of the regular season. Now is as good a time as any to start projecting how productive each team will be this year. In particular, let’s predict who the top offenses in the NFL can be this season, counting down from 5th place and continuing all the way to the number one spot.

5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The defending Super Bowl champion Bucs finished last season as the 7th ranked offense in the NFL with 384.1 yards per game. This is very impressive considering it was the first year for Tom Brady in a brand new style of offense. Going from the “Patriot way” to the air it out style of Bruce Arians is a drastic change so it took Brady a few weeks before he really got things rolling last year. Now that he has had a full season and offseason to learn the new system and tweak it a bit to fit his own style, it is likely that the Bucs offense will take a step forward this season. They are returning pretty much their entire championship roster from 2020 so another year of chemistry should work in their favor as well. Their combination of weapons is one of the best in the entire league, including one of the top wide receiving groups in the NFL of Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Antonio Brown. They helped lead the Bucs to the second best passing offense last year with 289.1 yards per game.

4. Buffalo Bills

The Bills finished the 2020 season tied for the second ranked offense with 396.4 yards per game. Most of this was due to the MVP caliber play of quarterback Josh Allen who really had a break out season. He put up by far the best numbers of his career throwing the ball, completing 69.2 percent of his passes for 4544 yards and 37 touchdowns, which were all new career highs. It appears that one of the main keys to unlocking his potential was the addition of wide receiver Stefon Diggs. In his first year in Buffalo, he had the best season of his career while leading the NFL in both receptions with 127 and receiving yards with 1535. The chemistry between Allen and Diggs appears to be extremely strong and this combination should have the Bills as one of the top offenses for many years to come. Having the creativity of one of the top young offensive coordinators in Brian Daboll definitely helps them as well.

3. Kansas City Chiefs

Last season the Chiefs finished as the top offense in football by an incredible margin of nearly 20 yards per game over second place. To show just how wide that gap is, the separation between the second and 12th place offenses was 20 yards. Clearly the Chiefs offense at 415.8 yards per game was absolutely dominant last season and as long as they keep their core together there is no reason at all to believe that they won’t be in the top five every season. The combination of Andy Reid at head coach with Patrick Mahomes at quarterback is a seemingly perfect match, as demonstrated by finishing as the number one ranked offense in two out of their three seasons together. They have the best “tight end” in football with Travis Kelce and one the top, and fastest, wide receivers in Tyreek Hill. Also, second year running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire should take a step forward this year as a true dual threat now that he is more comfortable in this system.

2. Tennessee Titans

Tied for second last season on offense with the Bills were the Titans. Unlike the Bills who relied heavily on their passing game, it was the rushing game in Tennessee that was the key to their success. They ranked second in rushing yards per game with 168.1 while superstar running back Derrick Henry eclipsed the 2000 yard mark. In addition, Ryan Tannehill is one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the NFL and his fourth ranked QBR of 78.3 demonstrates that. To make this great offense even better than it already was, the Titans added Julio Jones this offseason to pair with emerging star AJ Brown in what is now one of the best wide receiver tandems in the entire league. In just two season, Brown already has accumulated 122 receptions for 2126 yards and 19 touchdowns in the passing game. Jones, who is one of the best receivers of the past decade, recorded 1000 or more yards in every season of his career that he has played in at least 14 games. Between Henry, Brown, and Jones the Titans create an absolute nightmare situation for opposing defenses to try and match up with. They are in line for a monster season on offense.

1. Dallas Cowboys

In 2019, which was the last full season for quarterback Dak Prescott, the Cowboys lead the NFL in offense by a very wide margin with 431.5 yards per game. In addition to the fact that they were about 24 yards per game clear of second place, they totaled the most offensive yards in a season by any team since the Denver Broncos in 2013. Before Prescott was injured in 2020 they were off to yet another scorching hot start for offensive production. In particular, Prescott was on an absolutely ridiculous pace that could have set a new single season record for passing yards if he did not get hurt. As long as he fully returns to health this season, the Cowboys should have another huge year on offense and could be even better than before with the addition of second year wide receiver CeeDee Lamb. In the five games last season that Prescott started, Lamb registered 29 receptions for 433 yards and two touchdowns. This is a connection to watch this season and could really be something special moving forward. Of course, Prescott will also still have the luxury of his usual arsenal of weapons too with Ezekiel Elliot, Amari Cooper, and Michael Gallup.

The post Predicting the Top 5 Offenses This Season appeared first on Pro Football Mania.

By: Adam Hulse (@AdamHulseSports)

According to the Draft Kings Sports Book, the Kansas City Chiefs are projected to win the most games in the 2021 NFL season. Their line is set at 12.5 wins with the over being a -125 betting favorite, which is clearly the highest of any team in the league. This should come as no surprise at all, as the Chiefs have been the best and most consistent team over the last three consecutive since Patrick Mahomes took over as the starting quarterback.

In the past three years, the Chiefs appeared in the AFC Championship game in all three seasons, won two of them, and won a Super Bowl. They had a regular-season record of 12-4 in both the 2018 and 2019 seasons followed by a dominant 14-2 record in the 2020 season. Since Andy Reid took over as the head coach of the team, they have made the playoffs in seven out of eight seasons including the last six years consecutively.

The Chiefs are returning the large majority of their roster and coaching staff for the 2021 NFL season so there is really no reason at all to believe that they won’t once again be one of the very best teams in the entire league. It’s also important to remember that this upcoming regular season has 17 total games for the first time NFL history, so the Chiefs will have an extra game to exceed that high 12.5 projected win total. Additionally, they are ranked a modest 11th in terms of strength of schedule for the upcoming season and will likely be the point spread favorite in all 17 of their games. All things considered, here is what the Chiefs record could look like at the end of the regular season.

Division Games

The AFC West, on paper, is projected to be one of the best divisions in the 2021 NFL season. All four teams have realistic expectations of competing for a playoff spot and none of them will be an easy game for any opponent on their schedule. Just like every season, the Chiefs will play two games each against the Las Vegas Raiders, Los Angeles Chargers, and Denver Broncos. All three of these teams are filled with talented young players and have high hopes of being teams on the rise. Last season, the Chiefs had only two losses both came against divisional opponents but one of them was a game that Mahomes did not play. It’s more than reasonable to believe that the Chiefs will once again win at least four of their six division games and more than likely will win at least five of them.

Other AFC Games

The other six AFC opponents that the Chiefs will face this year are the Buffalo Bills, Tennessee Titans, and the entire AFC North division. This is the most difficult grouping of games on their schedule considering five of these six teams made the playoffs last season, with the much improved Cincinnati Bengals being the only one that did not. Still, it would be very surprised if the Chiefs did not win a minimum of four of these six games because they will more than likely be favored in all of them. If they were to be an underdog in any of them, it might be when they travel to Baltimore to take on the Ravens for Sunday Night Football.

NFC Games

The Chiefs will face off against five teams from the NFC conference this season including the Green Bay Packers and the entire East division. The NFC East is the worst projected division in the NFL so the Chiefs will almost definitely win at least three of these four games but will more than likely sweep them. The Packers are a difficult opponent but the game will be played in Kansas City and the Chiefs will be the favorite to come out victorious. It would not be at all surprising if the Chiefs win all five of their NFC games and would be disappointing if they didn’t win at least four of them.

Final Record

Based on the projections and analysis of each of their groupings of games it looks like the Chiefs are once again in line for a successful season. Even if they stumble, it appears that their floor is right about 12 wins with their ceiling being a perfect 17 wins considering what the probable betting odds will be for each game. That would put their most likely win total for the 2021 NFL season to be either 14 or 15 games. If looking for value, taking the over on their 12.5 total win line for the season feels like a really safe bet as long as they avoid major injuries. In particular, it’s hard to imagine any way they go under that number as long as Patrick Mahomes is healthy.

The post Projecting the Kansas City Chiefs Record appeared first on Pro Football Mania.

By: Adam Hulse (@AdamHulseSports)

With the 2021 NFL season less than three months away, now is a good time to take a look at some of the season-long individual awards and predict who will win each one. The betting odds used in this article are according to the Draft Kings Sportsbook.

MVP: Josh Allen (+1000)

Quarterback Josh Allen of the Buffalo Bills is currently the co-second favorite with Aaron Rodgers behind only Patrick Mahomes (+400) to win the NFL MVP this upcoming season. Allen had an incredible 2020 season and ranked towards the top of the NFL in almost every statistical passing category. He was 5th in passing yards with 4544, 5th in passing touchdowns with 37, 4th in completion percentage with 69.2, 3rd in QBR with 81.7, and 4th in rating with 107.2. He also chipped in an additional 421 yards and 8 touchdowns in the rushing game.

This was a true breakout season for Allen. He played exponentially better than he did in his first two seasons and there is a great reason to believe that he will be as good or better this upcoming year. The Bills organization is committed to him and his development, and offensive coordinator Brian Daboll has designed the offensive scheme specifically for him to succeed. They play according to his strengths and have built and very solid offensive around him.

This offseason they have continued to improve their offensive line and also signed Emmanuel Sanders as an additional weapon in the passing game. With another year of chemistry with the players on the roster last year, as well as the coaching staff, the future looks extremely bright for Allen. He is the main reason why the Bills are one of the favorites to win it all heading into this season and it will be exciting to see if he can build off of his breakout season.

Throwing accuracy was the biggest issue in his first two seasons but he actually turned it into a strength last year when he had the third-best completion percentage in the entire NFL. If he has really fixed that problem with his game, he is one of the most dangerous weapons in the league and will be that way for many years to come. All signs point to another huge year for Allen. The NFL MVP award this season is well within his reach.

Offensive Rookie of the Year: Justin Fields (+700)

When the Chicago Bears selected Justin Fields out of Ohio State with the 11th overall pick in the NFL Draft it was not to be a backup to Andy Dalton, but to be the starter and the quarterback of the future. Even if Fields is not the week one starter, which he may or may not be, he will almost definitely take over the job very early in the season. He was an absolute superstar in college and could be considered a steal where he was drafted, especially considering he was a projected second overall pick for about two full years.

Fields is now in a favorable situation in Chicago on a Bears team that just made the playoffs last year. The biggest problem for them last season was the absolutely terrible quarterback play so Fields has a real shot to be a solution there. He will operate in an offense with a superstar wide receiver in Allen Robinson and a breakout running back in David Montgomery. Fields is set up for success and has a real chance to make a statement right away.

Trevor Lawrence (+400) is the favorite to win the award, which is fair because of his astronomical talent and being the first overall pick, but he is on a Jaguars team that has a serious lack of talent and that could really hold him back a bit initially. Najee Harris (+500) will be sharing the workload in Pittsburgh and is on a pass-heavy team while Trey Lance (+600) is in a quarterback competition with Jimmy Garoppolo in San Francisco. All things considered, Fields is the best bet to take home the award right now.

Defensive Rookie of the Year: Micah Parsons (+500)

Drafted 12th overall out of Penn State by the Dallas Cowboys, Micah Parsons is a truly unique defensive weapon with a very wide skill set. He has the ability to contribute in a number of ways and has no real weaknesses in his game. He can rush the passer, help in run defense, and is solid in pass coverage as well. He can line up at multiple positions and provides excellent versatility. He is the betting favorite to win the award and rightfully so.

Parsons will join a Dallas defensive unit that already features DeMarcus Lawrence and Jaylon Smith. New defensive coordinator Dan Quinn will be able to be very creative with his defensive schemes and use Parsons all over the field in different ways. Quinn is a highly respected defensive coach and found a ton of success in Seattle as the main facilitator of the famous Legion of Boom. He can be trusted to get the best out of Parsons and if he plays up to his full potential then he has a great chance to win the award.

Defensive Player of the Year: Derwin James (+2500)

After Derwin James was selected 17th overall in the 2018 NFL Draft by the Chargers, the extremely versatile safety out of Florida State made an immediate impact. He quickly became not only one of the top rookies in his class, but one of the best defensive players in the entire league. In fact, a very strong case can be made that he is already the best safety in the NFL. He filled the stat sheet for the defense of the Chargers and contributed in a wide variety of ways his rookie season. He accounted for 105 tackles, 3 interceptions, 3.5 sacks, and 13 passes defended.

His incredible season earned him a selection as a first-team All-Pro. Additionally, he received consideration for both Defensive Rookie of the Year and even Defensive Player of the Year. This was obviously an amazing year for James and the fact that it was just his rookie season made it even more impressive. Fair expectations can be made that we haven’t even seen the best version of him yet and that is a very exciting concept for the potential of his future.

Unfortunately, he missed almost the entire next two seasons due to injury. The wait for his return is now over as James is fully recovered and ready to go for the 2021 campaign. As long as he can stay healthy this year, and is able to get back to his usual form, James will resume being one of the best defensive players in the NFL. His unique skill set allows him to contribute in every defensive aspect and he truly is one of a kind player in the league right now. Nobody can do what he does on the level he does it and that’s what makes him so special. He is currently the 8th favorite according to betting odds but it would be no surprise at all if he won the award when it’s all said and done this year.

The post Predicting who will win the top individual awards appeared first on Pro Football Mania.