By: Jake Rajala

The New Orleans Saints offense was the opposite of firing on all cylinders a season ago. The playoff-cursed Saints squad ranked dead last in passing yards — which instantly brought grey hair to the Saints legendary head coach Sean Payton. As Payton stepped away from football (for the moment), the Saints offense will rely on the ole-familar, offensive coordinator Pete Carmichael and a healthy Jameis Winston to make life hell for opposing defenses.

As widely enunciated, Winston was blatantly a stud in seven match-ups last season, by throwing 14 touchdowns to three interceptions, and most importantly: ousting a potent 5-2 record. He’s finally healthy and playing with a WR group that transformed into shinier armor this off-season.

The NFL analyst Bart Scott has pegged Winston to win MVP in the 2022 season. It’s hard to deny his situation – where has a healthy (and underrated) Michael Thomas, a slot legend in Jarvis Landry, and an electric rookie in Chris Olave. Thomas may run an infinite amount of slant routes, but he is still unguardable in the intermediate and deep parts of the field. The Saints wiz Nick Underhill of New Orleans.Football nicely pointed out that a “healthy Michael Thomas” would be the biggest asset to the team this summer.

The Saints don’t only have a Top-5 WR trio, but they have an un-suspended Alvin Kamara in 2023, a feisty, age-less Mark Ingram, and an underrated athlete at TE named Adam Trautman. AK, who had a magical rookie season, ousted 1,337 total yards in a broken Saints offense last season. Ingram quietly had 3.8 rushing yards per carry (which was more than Kamara’s 3.7 YPC) and 260 rushing yds in seven games in 2021. It could even be said that Ingram’s explosiveness was strange at this stage in his career.

Let’s not forget about the Saints beef up front. They will also have a mostly healthy, very talented OL to kick off Week 1. Trevor Penning will be out until at least November, but they will anticipate quality play from Andrus Peat and Ryan Ramczyk. The former Stanford OL (Peat) missed 11 contests last season, while Ramcyk missed a career-high seven games.

The Saints should return to being a Top-5 team in passing yards and a middle-of-the-pack rushing offense. They possess a highly-gifted group of players on offense and I expect Carmichael to know which buttons to press moving forward. Barring an injury to Winston or Thomas, or an unexpected blunder from the back-up LT James Hurt, the Saints offense should bring music to the ears of Who Dat Nation in 2022.

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By: Jake Rajala

The New Orleans Saints tight end Adam Trautman had a “Coby Fleener”- like performance last season (263 yards and 2 TDs), but the tides should finally be turning for the Dayton legend. Trautman has the athletic ability to consistently wreak havoc on opponents ”“ as he was a stud at the NFL combine. His 3-cone time (6.78) was the best 3-cone by a TE and his 20-yard shuttle (4.27) tied for second-best among TEs at Indy. Trautman just needs to be in sync with the Saints offense and a bit of experience.

It shouldn’t be nerve-wracking that Trautman hasn’t exploded in his first two seasons. After all, Jimmy Graham only mustered out 356 yards in his first season and Travis Kelce didn’t make his first Pro Bowl trip until his third NFL season. Trautman should also be cut some slack for having a QB sandwich of Trevor Siemen and Taysom Hill through most of last season.

Trautman also went into TE university this off-season ”“ which was carried out by George Kittle, Travis Kelce, and Greg Olsen. The group of unearthly TEs created a class that helps TEs improve in many facets of the game.

It’s clear that Trautman has shown improvement in training camp already Nick Underhill of NOF noted that Trautman was impressive on Day 2 of minicamp. It should also be noted that he has a QB that has found success with his TEs. Kristen Wong of Who Dat Dish nicely pointed out that Winston had the fifth-best passer rating when targeting TEs in a Buccaneers uniform. The Saints may have a heathly Michael Thomas, the Big Easy hero Jarvis Landry, and the rookie Chris Olave, but Trautman can absolutely shine (with his impressive match-ups) as the x-factor moving forward.

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By: Reese Nasser

New Orleans Saints quarterback Taysom Hill has had an interesting career up to this point. He has been an anomaly on the football field, not being stuck in the mold of any one particular position. He has spent time all over the field, from quarterback and tight end to special teams standout. 

Until the 2020 season, Hill had never been really utilized as a quarterback. Over two seasons he threw 13 passes for just over 100 yards. Over those same two seasons, he was utilized in more of a running role. He had 64 carries and 352 rushing yards and three rushing touchdowns. 

Hill hit his stride this past season. The 30-year old stepped into a true quarterback role for part of the season. In the four games that Hill started, the Saints went 3-1. Hill played well in his four starts, throwing four touchdowns and adding another four on the ground. He finished the season with 13 touchdowns and 1438 yards from scrimmage. 

After the end of the 2020 season and the retirement of longtime quarterback Drew Brees, the Saints restructured Hill’s contract. 

The deal could lock Hill in with the Saints for some time, or they could be out of it at the end of the season. The Saints could find themselves in an odd situation with Hill, especially when looking at how they can get themselves out of his contract. 

At nearly 31-years old, it is hard to envision Hill as the future quarterback of this team. The Saints also have a six-year veteran and former number one pick, Jameis Winston. It is assumed that Winston will be the QB1 heading into this upcoming season. A decision that puts Hill as the number one would shock the NFL. 

New Orleans also added Notre Dame quarterback Ian Book in the fourth round of this year’s draft. Book could be the eventual long-term quarterback for the Saints but won’t be ready to go in his rookie season. 

With the quarterback situation in New Orleans, it begs to ask the question of what should the Saints do with Taysom Hill? After showing that he can play the quarterback position at an at least average level, should they trade him? Or, do they keep him as a backup to be there in case Winston struggles in his role? Both options are possible and the Saints could entertain the idea of a trade. Let’s take a look at both options. 

Why Hill could be traded

Hill could be the perfect option for a team that loses their QB1. Unexpected injuries happen every season and not every team has a backup that can step up and still win them games. That is where Hill could step in and play a role. 

Hill’s duality on the field could make teams want to add him to their roster as well. His impact on the field could help teams expand their offensive game plans, much like New Orleans has been able to do up to this point. He could expand a team’s run game and influence things all over the offensive side of the ball. He could an impressive TE2 and a dual-threat QB on a team that wants more explosion out of the backfield. Teams like the Las Vegas Raiders, Minnesota Vikings, Pittsburgh Steelers would make intriguing landing spots.

Why the Saints could keep Hill

The Saints quarterback room outside of Winston and Hill is one of the weakest in the NFL. As previously noted, rookie quarterback Ian Book will more than likely be brought along slowly. The fourth quarterback on the roster is Trevor Siemian. Siemian has had difficulties in the NFL and the Saints may see him as the backup they would like to have. 

At 30 years old, New Orleans may not get a return in a trade that makes it worth it to move Hill, especially with the role that he plays for the team. He will be 31 by the time the regular season starts and it could make sense for both sides for Hill to just stay with the Saints. 

After weighing both options, the Saints would be better off having Hill on their roster. He is a proven security blanket, a player that can step in when called upon, which he proved that last season. Most teams would like to have a player with his talent on their roster, and the Saints could make a big mistake by moving him. There is also an inspirational factor in which many Saints fans adhere to his underdog story.

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By: Will Baptist

Sean Payton seems to love his new, shiny toys that he can use in a variety of ways on offense. Taysom Hill plays all over the field, Alvin Kamara is used in a plethora of different ways, and it looks like Payton has found another diamond in the rough. His name is Deonte Harris, and he fits that mold like no other.

Harris is primed for more action this upcoming season after a disappointing 2020 campaign, where he battled injuries throughout the year. Harris is electric in the open field and it behooves Payton to get him on the field more on offense. His rookie season in 2019 was special to say the least, as an undrafted free agent, he led the NFL in punt return yards, and made it to the Pro Bowl as a returner.

Harris is only 5’6 and 170 pounds, and his quickness is unparalleled, but he is uniquely strong and hard to tackle for his size. Payton and Harris are a match made in heaven, and there is nothing more logical than the Saints getting another weapon that they can use on offense. Getting Harris out in open space on screen passes has to be a wrinkle in the Saints offense this season. He needs to get the ball more, because if and when he does, he will be explosive.

Considering how great of a returner Harris is, he will always garner attention from opposing defenses. He can take one to the house in the blink of an eye, while he continues to develop as a route runner and wide receiver, he can easily be used on streaks and screens.

Luckily for Harris, he has arguably the best route runner in the NFL as a teammate, in Michael Thomas. The coaching staff and wide receiver room will undoubtedly improve his route running every single year.

Even though he was limited in 2020, his improvement was evident, and it was clear Payton wanted him more involved in the offense. He played in 14 games in 2019, and only had 10 total touches. That number increased dramatically in 2020, with 26 total touches in only nine games. That number could easily double in 2021, since the Saints are fairly thin at wide receiver outside of Thomas.

Imagining Hill at quarterback, with Kamara and Harris in the backfield will make opposing defensive coordinators’ heads explode. It will be extremely difficult to game plan against, and there is no blueprint for how to defend all of those weapons at once.

Thomas had a rough year in 2020, and with Drew Brees finally retiring from the NFL, there is a lot of uncertainty surrounding what the Saints will look like this season. They have yet to name their starting quarterback, but one thing is for certain, and that is whoever is under center will need to get Harris the ball in open field. He will be the quarterback’s best friend, and can take a 5-yard slant and turn it up field for a 60-yard touchdown.

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By: Bull Walker

A new era begins for the New Orleans Saints in 2021. For the first time in fifteen seasons, the Saints will begin the season without Drew Brees under center. Since Brees announced his retirement in March, the team has started planning for the future. Jameis Winston re-signed and Taysom Hill received a contract extension. The Saints also added Notre Dame quarterback Ian Book in the 4th round of the NFL Draft. Book had a late day three grade by most draft outlets but coach Sean Payton and General Manager Mickey Loomis have never been shy about going against the consensus. Let’s take a look at what the Saints are getting with Book.

Why The Saints Chose Ian Book

Book leaves Notre Dame as one of the most accomplished quarterbacks in program history, finishing his career second on the school’s all-time passing list in both yards and touchdowns. A three-year starter with a career record of 30-5, Book led Notre Dame to the College Football Playoff twice in three seasons. The Fighting Irish were overmatched in both games but he never stopped competing. That competitive drive is what led to a three-star prospect becoming the all-time winningest quarterback at one of college football’s most prestigious schools.

While Book lacks the ideal size of an NFL quarterback, he possesses great intangibles. When discussing the selection of Book, Sean Payton mentioned both his competitiveness and his ability to find ways to win games. There were times when things got ugly but he remained poised. Whether it be with his arm or his legs, he found a way to make winning plays for his team. Book may be lacking physically but his mental toughness more than makes up for it.

Book doesn’t have a big arm and he will not hurt defenses vertically. He’s a timing passer who will keep plays alive with his legs. Similar to former Saints quarterback Teddy Bridgewater. The Saints offensive scheme is based on timing throws; getting the ball out quickly and accurately to your playmakers. The scheme focuses on targeting the short and intermediate levels of the field, areas of strength for Book. As a developmental prospect, he landed in the perfect spot. Now is the time to put in the necessary work to become a successful NFL quarterback.

Future Expectations

Book is not going to compete for the starting job this season but he’s locked in as the third-string quarterback. Payton has expressed a lot of confidence in both Jameis Winston and Taysom Hill so it would be surprising to see Book take the field as a rookie. Winston is only on a one-year deal and Hill’s contract is totally avoidable, so if Book looks the part then the Saints could make the transition as early as next season. That may not be likely but it is possible. The most realistic outcome is that he gets stashed and developed for a couple of seasons.

The lack of a big arm limits Book’s long-term potential. His accuracy isn’t good enough to make up for the inability to attack defenses vertically and he’s only an okay athlete. Book seems more like a high-end backup quarterback. A smart player with good intangibles that will not fold under pressure. The kind of quarterback that will keep you alive if your starter has to miss some time. Book’s intelligence and competitive drive will keep him around in NFL locker rooms as long as he improves on his accuracy.

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By Preston W (@FF_Engineer_)

When drafting in fantasy football, it’s critical to know when to be high on a player, or low on a player. This process allows you to become a better drafter across all formats, as you can identify players who are a value based on their average draft position (ADP), as well as fade players based on their ADP. For instance, if you faded D.J. Moore last season while he was being drafted as the WR10, you would’ve successfully done so as he finished as the WR25. If you instead drafted Calvin Ridley at his ADP of WR14, you would’ve reaped the rewards as Ridley finished as the WR5 on the season. Knowing who to be high on, and who to fade, can be the difference in a RB1 and a RB2, or a WR2 and WR3. It’s the most crucial part of winning your league’s draft.

One player worth the in depth analysis on is Alvin Kamara. Kamara is consistently being taken within the first five picks in drafts, meaning he is costing significant draft capital, so much so that we can’t afford to be wrong on this selection. More importantly, Kamara is going to experience a shift this coming season, with Drew Brees retiring. As of now, Kamara’s options at quarterback are Jameis Winston and Taysom Hill. So let’s take a look at how these two might fair out.

What has history shown us?

It may seem odd to a general football fan, but we in the fantasy community actually judge running backs by how solid of receivers they are. And that’s because most of us play in formats where players are rewarded for how many passes they catch. Since entering the league in 2017, Kamara has been extremely consistent in the passing game. In fact, Kamara consistently caught 81 balls in each of his first three seasons, until he surpassed that number last season with 83 receptions.  

Alvin Kamara Receiving by Season

I included these per game metrics because it’s useful when analyzing a player like Kamara, who has missed a couple of games over the past few seasons. Over his four years in the league, he’s played 16 games, 15 games, 14 games, and 15 games. Throughout those years, he’s experienced quite a bit of utilization in the passing game, averaging 6.8 targets per game and 5.4 receptions per game across his career.

So why does this matter? For starters, throughout Kamara’s career, he’s averaged 21.6 fantasy points per game (FPPG). If he’s averaging 5.4 receptions per game, that means 5.4 points of those 21.6 FPPG are from him simply catching passes. That’s right, 25% of Kamara’s points are just from him earning one point per reception, and we know Kamara is a highly elusive runner, capable of racking up receiving yards too.

What I’m trying to get at here is that much of Kamara’s fantasy success is derived from his usage in the passing game. The reason I’m focusing on this is because for a majority of his career, Drew Brees was throwing him the ball. In the year 2021, it’s either going to be Taysom Hill or Jameis Winston, and either of those players will have an impact on Kamara. So let’s look at some trends.

Alvin Kamara’s Game Splits with and without Drew Brees

Well for starters, Kamara’s target share is depleted by about 27% when Drew Brees isn’t his quarterback. Additionally, he’s catching approximately 30% less passes without Brees, which is identical to his 30% decrease in FPPG. There’s obviously a trend occurring between Kamara’s passing game production and Brees being the quarterback. This also directly affects Kamara’s fantasy football production due to how much his points are dependent upon his usage in the passing game. But let’s take a look at how his production fairs with one of his possible quarterbacks for this season: Taysom Hill.

Alvin Kamara with Drew Brees vs. Taysom Hill

It’s obvious that Kamara’s production regressed even more with Taysom Hill. I guess Teddy Bridgewater wasn’t the worst thing for Kamara. And Kamara managers felt this pain directly last season during those four games Brees missed. It was very clear that Kamara’s fantasy production took a turn for the worst under Hill. Nonetheless, it’s important to acknowledge how serious this is. There’s a 50% chance Taysom Hill is the starting quarterback next year, and that is not a good thing for Kamara. Let’s take a look at how Kamara finished the 2020 season, compared to Kamara’s season long pace with only Taysom Hill.

Alvin Kamara’s 2020 Season Pace with Taysom Hill

By Kamara only scoring 14.2 FPPG, he would’ve finished as the RB9 on a points per game basis, as opposed to his season average of 25.2 FPPG, where he did finish as the RB2 in terms of points per game. Meanwhile, Kamara’s season long pace with Hill (in this case I only did so for 15 games because that’s how many Kamara played), would’ve dropped him from the RB1 on the season to the RB10. That’s not good.

But what if Jameis Winston is the starter? Unfortunately, Winston only attempted 11 passes in his first season with New Orleans, so there’s very limited direct data. But looking at Winston’s career data in terms of involving his running backs into the passing game, Winston falls somewhere between Brees and Hill.

Jameis Winston’s Career Stats When Throwing to Running Backs

It’s important to note, that this data is based upon all of Tampa Bay’s running backs, as opposed to a single lead back. Tampa Bay was in a heavy running back committee during Winston’s tenure, so there’s a sizeable gap in the data. Even in New Orleans though, Latavius Murray this year accounted for 1.7 targets per game, and 1.5 receptions per game. Winston’s career data can be viewed as a potential ceiling for Kamara, but in reality, we can expect Kamara’s numbers to be less than those listed in the table above. Now let’s compare Hill and Winston directly. 

Alvin Kamara’s Career vs. Taysom Hill and Jameis Winston Outlooks

It’s evident either are going to be a downgrade for Kamara, but there’s hope at least. Perhaps Sean Payton installs an offense in which regardless of the quarterback, they are forced to feed Kamara. But history tells us either guy will cause a decline in Kamara’s fantasy production. Even so, there are more ways to go about analyzing this situation besides only focusing on Kamara’s involvement in the passing game. For instance, how many red zone touches will Taysom Hill vulture?

I think it’s clear, Winston is the preferred candidate, for Kamara’s sake, but he’s no Brees. Needless to say, I’m fading Kamara this year. Kamara’s current ADP is 4.3, according to FantasyData, making him the RB4 draft wise. With the decline in his passing game utilization we can expect this season, I would be bumping Kamara down to somewhere around the RB7 to RB10 range. If Winston is the quarterback, I would put Kamara on the higher end of that range, and alternatively, if Hill is the guy, Kamara will be on the lower end of that range. There’s no doubt about it that Kamara is one of the most talented running backs in the league, but for fantasy purposes he’s going to be a fade this season. I’m not saying I would never draft him, but I certainly wouldn’t pay high end RB1 draft capital for low end RB1 production.

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