By: Jeremy Trottier

The New Orleans Saints have struggled this offseason with injuries, suspensions, and cuts of players that would be considered starters entering this season.  Just to name a few of these issues:

• Suspension: David Onyemata (DT1)
• Pending/Probable suspension: Deonte Harris (WR3) & Marshon Lattimore (CB1)
• Injuries: Wil Lutz (K), Michael Thomas (WR1), Tre’Quan Smith (WR2)
• Major Cuts/Losses: Emmanuel Sanders, Sheldon Rankins, Trey Hendrickson, Janoris Jenkins, Drew Brees, Jared Cook, Nick Easton, etc.

With all of these noted, one of them stands out the most current as hugely impactful for the 2021-2022 season, that is the Michael Thomas injury and complications.  In this article, I will be discussing the issues that have taken place since his initial injury in 2020, as well as where this could go in the coming months.

Initial High Ankle Sprain

Michael Thomas initially had a high ankle sprain entering the 2020 season and played week 1 despite this, where he had three receptions on five targets.  He would then go on to miss weeks two through eight on IR as he was trying to recover from the sprain but came back because he said he wanted to help Drew Brees get deep into the playoffs in his final season.  Thomas would play weeks eight through thirteen, never having more than nine receptions in a game, and only having two games with 100+ yards during this span.  

This led to Thomas being removed from the rest of the season, that being weeks 15 to the divisional round of the playoffs, as he was not capable of playing on the injury any longer.  This injury pretty much derailed his season, as he was coming off a record-setting OPOY season in 2019, to which this injury prevented him from continuing into 2020.

Offseason Diagnosis/Team Issues

After the season ended, it was reported that the Saints medical staff told Michael Thomas that this ankle would require surgery to heal in the quickest manner, despite it being relatively invasive at the time seemingly.  Thomas would go on to get a second opinion, who said he could potentially recover through time and rehab without any surgery.  Then the interesting part of this all comes into place, in which the Saints coaching staff and medical team did not hear from MT for three months straight.

This is hugely concerning, especially to the franchise, as even if he was not injured he should still be in regular contact with the team.  Then out of nowhere, MT says he is getting surgery in June, to which he does, and now he is likely going to miss at least the first quarter of the season, as he did in 2020.  As of right now, eight weeks is the timetable for his return, and that is from the surgery date, not the start of the season, so he could return before the bye week for New Orleans if he really works hard.

Future Options

As of right now, MT is still locked into his 5-year $100 million extensions, and unless the Saints trade him during the season, they would incur a heavy dead cap penalty for a season or two.  This pretty much leaves them with four options, at least as I see it:

• MT returns before/near the bye week on schedule, plays like his 2019 self, and the Saints are able to mend relationships to the point where he can at least play out his contract.
• MT returns on schedule, still has fractured relationships with the Saints front office, and gets traded for assets during or after this season.
• MT takes his time and returns late in the season, or takes too short a time and returns early, underperforms, and is traded or cut for significantly less than expected.
• The Saints keep Thomas regardless of performance due to his contract issues, and just ride it out and hope he can heal to perform better in 2022 onwards.

The post What is the current situation regarding Michael Thomas? appeared first on Pro Football Mania.

By: Corey Hietpas

Michael Thomas gets the most undeserved hate out of all the receivers in the league. All the guy does is dominate year after year, but you would never know that if all you did was search his name on Twitter. My best guess as to why is that fans view him as a “diva” for being outspoken and emotional. To help dispel some of this unwarranted hate, I dive into 3 reasons why he is still one of the best receivers in the game today.

Thomas has had an 85 or higher PFF grade since entering the league.

Yes, I know that PFF is not the one true source for grading players, but they do a really good job of it. If they didn’t, we wouldn’t see them advertised every Monday night. No doubt, 2020 was a relatively rough year for Michael Thomas as he missed 9 games due to two separate injuries and ended up only playing 4 games with Drew Brees when he was healthy. Even with the injury-plagued season, Thomas still graded out really well during the games he did play as he finished a final grade of 85. For those who aren’t familiar with PFF grades, they aren’t like Madden ratings. 70-79 is really good and 80+ is getting to the really high performers level. For context, Patrick Mahomes only had a 91 PFF grade in 2020. So Michael Thomas earning an 85 while playing through injury and not-so-good QB play is very telling. Looking at a larger sample size, Michael Thomas was graded as 90+ for 2017, 2018, and 2019. He’s been nothing short of phenomenal during his career. 

Advanced Metrics love Michael Thomas.

According to Matt Harmon’s “Reception Perception”, Michael Thomas is really good when going against Man Coverage and Zone Coverage. This is shown by his 80% or higher success rate against both man and zone over the last few years. Along with this, Player Profiler had him as a top 5 receiver in the following categories during his last full season (2019): target share, completed air yards, yards after the catch, red zone receptions, yards per pass route, catch rate, true catch rate, and contested catch rate. Needless to say, when healthy, Michael Thomas is a beast. Even in an injury-riddled 2020 season, he finished top 5 in target share, air yards share, true catch rate, and contested catch rate. As long as he can stay healthy, I fully expect Thomas to return to his dominant self in 2021.

He’s not just a “slant boy”.

Let’s talk about a bit of background first. After having a rough two games against Tampa Bay, Carlton Davis called Michael Thomas a “slant boy” on Twitter this past January, and that nickname has definitely stuck around. Michael Thomas is a short-to-intermediate expert, and he’s now getting a bad reputation because of this. Even if he thrives on these shorter routes, he’s not even close to just a “slant boy”. NFL.com released an article that graded the top 3 receivers by route using Next Gen Stats. Yes, Michael Thomas was the highest-graded receiver on slant routes, but that’s far from the whole picture. Thomas was also the highest-graded receiver for crossing routes, out routes, and hitches. As I said, the guy thrives in the short to the intermediate area. This does not make him a lesser receiver, it shows that he has perfected his craft.

I don’t know what brings all the disrespect on for Michael Thomas, but I do know that it is completely misguided. Statistically, very few receivers have a resume as good as Michael Thomas does since 2016, and he deserves way more respect than he receives.

The post 3 reasons why Michael Thomas is the most disrespected WR appeared first on Pro Football Mania.

By: Adam Martin

The New Orleans Saints are in a transition period after the loss of multiple players this offseason. There is uncertainty over who will play QB and they are no longer the obvious winner in their own division. With that in mind they need guys to step up and Tre’Quan Smith could be that guy. He has shown glimpses over the last three years in New Orleans but now he has the chance to really breakout. Here we look at why Tre’Quan Smith could be a household name in 2021.

Given that TreQuan Smith has played in the NFL for three years it does seem weird to be expecting a breakout. However, there are plenty of reasons why this could happen. Smith has shown in the last few years that he is capable of making an impact. There has been plenty of change in New Orleans but Sean Payton is still the head coach. If you have a head coach that believes in you then that makes a huge difference to a player.

Why the stats can lie.

In his three years in the NFL Smith has never been amazing but has been a solid option for his QB. In 2018 he played in 15 games making 427 yards and five touchdowns with a 63.3% pass completion rate. It was hoped he would push on in 2019 but he only played 11 games due to injuries. He only managed to gain 234 yards and five touchdowns that year but had a career-high 72% pass completion rate. He then bounced back to 448 yards and four touchdowns in 2020 over 14 games played.

The stats can lie and make it look like he is not as good as he actually is but there are some averages that need to be taken into account. His pass completion rate works out to around 68% over his three years. This is a decent rate and shows that when he gets the ball he is likely to hold it. On top of that he has also shown that he is a touchdown target. Normally he will hit five touchdowns a season and with a potential increase in targets likely to come, that should go up.

Does he have the opportunity?

Now is the time that Smith has the opportunity to really kick on. When you look at the depth chart Michael Thomas is the clear number one wide receiver on the team. However, there is no one else thanks to the end of Emmanuel Sanders contract. Smith is the next man up with only the likes of Marquez Callaway and Deonte Harris having seen any significant snaps. On top of that, they did draft a seventh-round wide receiver but there is nothing to stop Smith from excelling.

With Emmanuel Sanders now gone it has released up 82 targets and Smith has to be considered a prime candidate for them. He won’t get them all because there are other candidates but if he can get 35 of them then you could see a huge increase. Chris Godwin had 84 targets last year and amassed 840 yards and seven touchdowns finishing at the number 30 wide receiver. Smith had 50 targets last year so could easily pick up the 34 targets and amass similar figures. If Smith was to hit these figures then he would be a player on more people’s lips by the end of 2021.

What about the loss of Brees?

The loss of Drew Brees will undoubtedly have a knock-on affect to the success of the Saints this year. However, he had been struggling over the last few years with injuries and arm strength. Over the last three years, there had been a noticeable drop-off when it came to pass attempts. The reason you have to look at the last three years is that is the time the Tre’Quan Smith has been with the Saints. In 2018 Brees had 489 pass attempts and that only got lower over the next two years after.

Currently, it feels like there is a genuine battle for the starting QB gig in New Orleans. It could be Taysom Hill or it could be Jameis Winston. This decision by head coach Sean Payton will have the biggest impact on Tre’Quan Smith and if he can vastly improve. If Payton decides to go with Taysom Hill then it will be tough for Smith to reach the numbers previously mentioned. If he starts Jameis Winston and sticks with him then the numbers will be reached.

Jameis Winston loves to throw the ball and wont shy away from any accuracy problems. The last time he started in 2019 with Tampa Bay he throw 30 touchdowns and 30 interceptions. Not only did he show the strength of character to keep going he also had 626 pass attempts. That is a crazy amount of pass attempts and he probably wouldn’t reach them numbers again. However, he showed in his first two seasons in the NFL that he will throw much more than many QB’s.

He threw over 500 pass attempts in his rookie year and then his second year. Had he played a full season in his next two seasons he probably would of done the same again. With Brees only throwing 390 attempts last year the certain increase of pass attempts from Winston would mean that Smith would receive much more work.

Verdict

Given the lack of depth at wide receiver for the Saints this year you have to think that Smith can leap forward. He has the hands to make the vast majority of his catches count and has always been a touchdown threat. However, a lot of this will depend on who is starting QB will be. If its Taysom Hill he will improve but not significantly. If its Jameis Winston then the sky is the limit. The ability is there, the targets are there and hopefully for Smith, Winston will be there.

The post Why Tre’Quan Smith is one of the most slept on WRs appeared first on Pro Football Mania.

By: Jake Rajala (Twitter: @rajala_jake)

Michael Thomas has been in rhythm with a warped 2020 season amid his astonishing young career. The 2019 Offensive Player of The Year in Sean Payton’s orchestra has survived to field a mere seven games in the 2020 regular season.

Thomas endured a severe ankle injury that occurred in Week 1 against TB, then faced disciplinary actions (sparring with teammates, inexcusable language towards coaching staff) a few weeks in the future, then MT returned to action in Week 9. Cantguardmike was back in sync & more so a fine safety net for dual-threat QB Taysom Hill when Brees was injured up until Week 15.

As of last week, the single-season reception record holder (149 grabs in 2019) has been shut down and placed on IR. As NBC Sports reported, Sean Payton blatantly stated that MT needed a break for his ankle to fully recover. In retrospect, Drew Brees came off IR and entered the revolving door, while his No. one wide receiver in Thomas tagged out & will await on IR (eligible to return for playoffs, *new rule for IR).

Thomas’s designation on IR has put a pin on a disappointing 2020 regular season campaign to exonerate the least. Yet, not only was the injury a wretched root in his ill productive year, but Thomas’s efficiency has been abysmal compared to his fruitful self. Here’s a more in-depth look at some of Thomas’s notable figures in 2020:

• Y/R: 11.0 (career-low)
• 0 TDs in seven games
• receptions per game: 5.7 (career-low)
• catch %: 72.7 (career-low)
• receving yards per game: 62.6 (career-low)

Clearly, the Thomas we were accustomed to, has dissolved into a shell of his former self. Yes, Thomas has battled nagging injuries & performed without the likes of Drew Brees for a few games.

Despite the barriers, there’s not an adequate excuse for such dire outcomes for a gifted “Hall of Fame” aimed player like himself. Thomas was historically productive with the backup QB Teddy Bridgewater for five games last season & he was given an extra week of precaution leading up to his return scene this year in Week 9. And we also witnessed MT get the green light to face an atrocious Eagles team in Week 14, despite his efforts not rewarding a team victory.

With all of the negative buzz and unjustifiable clap-backs unveiled from the second-highest valued WR ($96 million) this season, what’s the future outlook for Thomas? There were in fact trade rumors heating up for injury-riddled, drama-fueled WR prior to the trade block this season.

Would the Saints head coach that shipped off a prime Brandin Cooks and Jimmy Graham reel in the house for his out-of-world paid, often hazardous WR amid a passing offense that will see Drew Brees depart from this off-season? It’s left to be decided & it would be a very bold move, but I believe Sean Payton should make this exchange happen in the near future. By stating this claim, let me unwind some deeper resonance into my eager utterance.

Compensation for Thomas

The New Orleans Saints will soon realize two things upon the dismissal of the 2021 season. It will be imminent that either option A. The Saints just won the Super Bowl, Brees has retired as expected, and they hold the 32nd draft pick or B. The Saints lost in the playoffs (again), hold a horrid draft pick, and Drew Brees has retired.

Saints will need a significant re-boot after the 2021 season, particularly at the quarterback position. And if the Saints trot Taysom Hill on to the field with a loaded roster, the result will undeniably carry a “passing” ceiling of potentially ten or fewer wins.

Well, where could the Saints go in search of a QB outside of Taysom Hill (or Jameis Winston)? The best option is Free Agency will inevitably be Dak Prescott, but it seems clear about his stay being put in Dallas. Assuming Free Agency isn’t the answer (especially long-term), the Saints will need to be keen on QBs in the draft. It will be very challenging, near impossible for Payton to realistically snatch one of the top four QBs in the draft (Lawrence, Fields, Wilson, Lance) from the back of the first round.

If the Saints garnered a first-round pick for Thomas, Sean Payton could then drool over trading up by exchanging two first-rounders for the likes of a Zach Wilson/Trey Lance (best No. three/four options in a decade).

We’ve already seen Minnesota say good-bye to Stefon Diggs & the replacing compensation that Minnesota received, which was a first-rounder & a fifth-rounder. And if Saints got that type of draft compensation and didn’t get creative for that dire QB need, they could select a well-accomplished, young, cheaper WR/TE prospect in the draft–such as Kyle Pitts or Devonta Smith (even with one of the two selections).

Contract Situations

It’s well captured that the Saints broke the bank for Thomas prior to the 2019 regular season and now he’s one of the highest-paid NFL WRs in NFL history. Looking ahead, the Saints will owe Michael Thomas 9.6 million on the third day of the 2021 NFL new league year. His base salary will sit atop the team’s chart for 2021.

Thomas’s astronomical cap figure is on the outer rim of a slew of other notable cap situations that need to be resolved in the 2021 off-season, along with expired contracts in 2022 that should be extended this new year. In the group of contracts that need attendance, there are a few high-profile, productive reputations:

• Trey Hendrickson (leads NFL in sacks)
• Marcus Williams
• Sheldon Rankins
• Jared Cook
• Ryan Ramczyk (expires in 2022)
• Marshon Lattimore (expires in 2022)
• Terron Armstead (expires in 2022)
• Marcus Davenport (expires in 2022)

Outside of the notorious Saints having a contract that’s looming (listed above), the Saints will have to figure out what they want to do with Kwon Alexander (via trade with SF) and Janoris Jenkin’s (FA pick-up in 2019 season) contract. Mickey Loomis was able to get a bargain for their starting LB Alexander & they will only have to cough up $2.64 million in base salary for the rest of the year. If the Saints cut the former 49er, they wouldn’t owe him any of the $13.4 million dollars. And as for “JackRabbit” Janoris Jenkins, he carries a $14.2 million cap hit for the 2021 season.

It’s seen around as a popular move if the Saints cut one or two of the starting, high-caliber veterans & save an enormous amount of money. I would disagree with that notion with both players getting eliminated across the board. The Saints have already restructured Jackrabbit’s contract this past off-season to keep the lockdown corner at ease. As for Alexander, It may be more popular to let him walk. Yet, not only has Alexander shown great flashes in a short time (Four pass deflections, Two FF), but the backup LB Alex Anzalone will be a FA in 2021, too. It will be imminent that the Saints can keep a viable option intact on their elite run defense.

Looking at the contracts laid out above, It’s crystal clear how important Hendrickson has been for the Saints. He’s tied for the league lead in sacks (12.5). Outside the prominent edge rusher, Marcus Williams has been a reliable starter at safety (seven INTs in last two years), amidst a shaky secondary already portrayed. Outside of those two young, consistent studs, I admit to likely seeing Rankins being on the move & Cook garnering a low-price offer from the Saints (likely getting overpaid elsewhere).

The more notable contracts labeled above reveal a deadline in 2022. It will be a more desired thrill to lock up Ramczyk (All-Pro OT, the contract expires in 2022) and potentially the up-and-down, essential CB Marshon Lattimore (expires in 2022), prior to lighting up the sky in their contract season, especially with questions about the potential team success to stay–post Brees.

All in all, I believe the Saints are prestigiously well-balanced, as they’re well equipped with lots of depth, key players across the board, which allows them to go leaps and bounds of successful outings without Brees and Thomas. Yet, I find it foreseen that they could have to let a few key contributors find a new home: Marcus Williams or Kwon Alexander could walk, or they might fail to extend Lattimore. Or even perhaps, it could be a serious obstacle to obtain a higher profile like Hendrickson on a long-term track, or extend Terron Armstead/Ryan Ramzyk (expires in 2022) given their tight cap situation (20th ranked, per Over The Cap). It would be a significant jolt in their cap salary to depart a long, skyscraper contract like the notable Thomas.

Success without Michael Thomas

If the Saints were to pardon Michael Thomas, it would make sense that they would have to feel comfortable with their situation post the nifty route runner. With that being expressed, all signs point towards Sean Payton running the show well in absence of MT, but more importantly on a long stretch.

The Saints well-oiled machine on offense engineered 28.7 pts a game without the “2019 Offensive Player of The Year”. That’s a higher average than their 2019 PPG tally (28.1) & it’s even above their PPG on the overall 2020 season (28.4).

When Thomas has gone down, we witnessed how valuable Emmanuel Sanders was, the growth of Tre’quan Smith arise, Alvin Kamara blossom into an MVP candidate, and it was clear that Sean Payton continued to run a successful tempo afterward. And this isn’t a comparison of one or three games without MT, but rather Thomas missing seven games thus far (nine when the season wraps up).

The Saints offense is “still” more efficient and posing a higher ceiling with an in-sync Michael Thomas, let’s not be mistaken. Although, it’s very impressive how explosive the Saints offense has been without MT. Other teams in similar scenarios vastly struggle, as Carolina does without McCaffrey and the Falcons do without Julio. And not only was the Saints offense putting up fireworks without MT in the fold this year, but it would also deem more than probable that the Saints would add a weapon at WR/TE to continue building a stronger Rappaport if Thomas was no longer a Saint.

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