By: Jeremy Trottier

Derek Carr has been the source of some contention among NFL fans in the last few years.  Some believe him to be top 10-15 in the league, and some believe he may not be nearly that good and is more average.  In this article, I will be breaking down whether or not I believe he is underrated, properly rated, or overrated, based on his statistics and production over the last season.  So without further ado, let’s start off with his statistical production:

2021 production

Interestingly enough, last year Carr had one of his better seasons in terms of passing yards and completion %, which makes this a compelling debate.  This was not only because of the extra game either, he had 700 more passing yards than any other season in his career, a monumentally larger amount than normal. 

In 2021 Carr put up the following stat line:

• 17 games played (all 17 started)
• 428 completions on 626 attempts (68.4%)
• 4,804 passing yards, 23 touchdowns, 14 interceptions
• 94.0 passer efficiency rating, 282.6 yards per game, 217 first downs

Granted, his inflated passing yards were due to a lot more passes than normal.  However, he remained consistent in terms of completing passes as he still completed a very high percentage even with this extremely high workload.  In terms of where he stacked up among other QBs, he finished in the following spots:

• #5 in passing yards
• #13 in touchdowns
• #6 in interceptions (most thrown, not least thrown)
• #7 in first downs
• #5 in completion %
• #14 in QBR and PER

Overall, he did exceptionally well passing at this rate considering how horrendous the Las Vegas Raiders offensive line was last season.  The Raiders OL got Carr sacked 40 times on the season, less than only Joe Burrow, Ryan Tannehill, Zach Wilson, and Baker Mayfield, precisely 1 of whom had a great season. 

Now it comes down to whether or not Carr is over or under-rated.  I believe, as of right now, he is underrated by a slight bit, not by a huge amount, however.  His talent is definitely within the top 15 quarterbacks in the league, and he is definitely going to improve this year with the addition of Davante Adams to the team.  Overall, I would say he is generally properly rated by the NFL fandom but underrated in most other cases. 

The post Is Derek Carr overrated, properly rated, or underrated? appeared first on Pro Football Mania.

Daniel Racz @Danny___Dimes

Introduction

The recent infatuation with stacking in best ball has emphasized identifying good offenses. While stacks from teams like the Buffalo Bills, Kansas City Chiefs, and Dallas Cowboys will undoubtedly be productive this year, they require significant draft capital. There are a few offenses that have the potential to wildly outperform their ADPs and come in clutch down the stretch. 

San Francisco 49ers

There is a lot of uncertainty in San Francisco, and with uncertainty comes opportunity. George Kittle (TE3, ADP of 26) and Brandon Aiyuk (WR27, ADP of 60) are priced as if the 49ers will not be a high-volume passing offense. However, Trey Sermon (RB27, ADP of 72) and Raheem Mostert (RB29, ADP of 83) are priced as if the team will not run the ball often. 

If the 49ers pass the ball often, Aiyuk and Kittle (and to some extent, Deebo Samuel) can outperform their ADPs in a meaningful way. If the offense runs the ball a lot, Mostert and Sermon are criminally undervalued. If the 49ers’ offense is dynamic, perhaps every piece of the offense can have an above-average win rate. The 49ers also have an easy playoff schedule, including matchups against the Falcons, Titans, and Texans, allowing them to smash in tournaments. 

New York Giants

Am I a homer for including the Giants? Undoubtedly. Do I sincerely believe that the Giants offense is drafted much closer to its floor in comparison to its ceiling? Confidently. The hesitancy around Saquon Barkley is warranted, but he offers unparalleled upside. Going routinely in the middle of the first round (ADP of 5.4 currently) is a crime. Later in drafts, wide receivers like Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton are undervalued. Shepard, though injury prone, routinely gives you usable weeks year after year. Darius Slayton is likely to play on the outside in most three-wide receiver sets and is excellent injury insurance in the likely event that either Shepard or Kenny Golladay misses games this season.  

The last important piece of the offense is Daniel Jones. After his less-than-stellar 12 total touchdown season in 2020, Jones can not do much worse. However, he does not need to at his current price. With an ADP of 167 at QB23, Jones offers legitimate upside. While his floor is certainly lower than later quarterbacks like Derek Carr, his rushing upside and dynamic weapons give him a chance to be a top 12 quarterback.  

Washington Football Team

The team without a name is not a team without meaningful fantasy contributors. The revamped offense is perhaps the league’s most slept on. Running back Antonio Gibson (RB13, ADP of 16.7) is primed for a breakout. Coach Ron Rivera has stressed that the team wants to unleash him in the passing game, a la Christian McCaffrey in Carolina. Gibson’s upside should not be underestimated, he has overall RB1 firmly within his range of outcomes. The addition of Quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick (QB21, ADP of 154.8) can keep the team’s weapons relevant. Fitz has supported multiple top wide receivers, including Devante Parker’s miraculous 2019 season. Fitzmagic should easily keep both Terry Mclaurin (WR11, ADP of 30.7) and Curtis Samuel (WR41, ADP of 85.2) fantasy relevant. Given Fitz’s gunslinger play style, rookie deep threat Dyami Brown (WR78, ADP of 176.9) is also worth a flier.

The post Top three undervalued offenses in 2021 appeared first on Pro Football Mania.