By Jesse Moeller (Twitter: @JMoeller05)

With training camps kicking off this week, it’s officially the week we welcome back football. In particular, people start focusing on fantasy football again. I know for us degenerates, that may sound odd, but only a tiny slice of the fantasy players participate in year-round dynasty or devy leagues. So I am here to give you a rundown of the pitfalls and traps to avoid as we transition to redraft season.

Hype Videos are strictly that.

While it is great to see a video of a player you read about on Twitter make a spectacular catch or run. You need to take these videos with a grain of salt. Let’s take the video of Rhamondre Stevenson below as an example.

After seeing this video of a rookie back running over a defender, you will likely want to go out, and draft said player. However, I would pump the breaks, as you only get a portion of the picture on that player. What you miss from this video is the Patriots Running Back Coach Ivan Fears one day later saying Stevenson needs to improve everywhere. Also saying he would spend most of the time on the bench this season. Do you see how relying only on the highlight video gives you an unrealistic one-sided look at the player for the upcoming season?

While I love the hype videos, make sure you see the context surrounding that player before you reach for a player because you saw him making a diving catch during training camp.

What’s The Players Worth?

Two things carry more weight than anything else in the NFL. Draft Capital and players contracts. Here’s looking to you, N’Keal Harry. It is so important because it gives players a longer leash to establish themselves with the team. Take, for instance, Kenneth Gainwell out of Memphis. The fifth-round pick has no guarantees of seeing a relevant role this year. Austin Ekeler, the player Gainwell continually comped to due to his role in San Diego, saw only an 18% snap share and accumulated 106 fantasy points as a rookie. Hundreds of rookies have faceplanted for every James Robinson that hits (who was a waiver wire pickup last year). Betting on rookies without premium draft capital is a losing bet.

On the flip side, apply this strategy to veterans involving cheap contracts. Again, Mike Davis and Jamaal Williams come to mind. Both players are on lower-level running back contracts, and a team will have zero issues moving on from them if someone such as Qadree Ollison or Jermar Jefferson is to outperform them early in the season. In addition, teams with veterans on these lower-level deals make them expendable, as they are easily replaceable due to the lack of cap implications. Other names that should fall under consideration are Mark Ingram, Marlon Mack, John Ross, Gio Bernard. If you invested in these players, keep an eye on them throughout camp, as the team will give you a good indication of how they feel these players early in the year.

Big Fish Little Pond

Extrapolating on small sample sizes gets others into trouble every year. Let me give you a couple of examples of how this strategy leads us all astray. I remember a few names, such as how Tyler Higbee finished the 2019 season, Dak Prescott’s red hot start to last year, how David Montgomery finished the season, or how Travis Fulgham was a midseason darling? These narratives lead to flawed processes, which then lead to bad decisions from fantasy managers. In each scenario listed above, overreacting to the small sample size was and is a broken process.

For example, Tyler Higbee was the most divisive of the bunch. During his final five weeks in 2019, Higbee caught lightning in a bottle. He faced the four worst defenses against tight ends in those five weeks. In addition, his snaps and routes ran received a massive spike during those five weeks due to an offensive scheme change. Steering Higbee to the most incredible five-game stretch by a tight end in history. Higbee jumped to TE7 in ADP, and you know how the rest of the story went for him in 2020. With each other player, there is hindsight analysis that we can apply to each situation. If you pay attention to the correct details, you will notice outlier moments for those players. Dak Prescott was on pace to throw 700+ times, which would rank him 2nd all-time in NFL history. 595 pass attempts were his career-high.

David Montgomery played a cakewalk schedule down the stretch and had zero competition for touches in the backfield. Travis Fulgham had no competition during his five-week explosion. However, as soon as Alshon Jeffery returned, he faded back to oblivion.

Square Peg Round Hole

The simple question you should ask yourself when looking for a breakout is what role players can earn? I will give my wide receivers and running back strategy as my example for breakout players. There is a drastic difference in the range of outcomes when talking about Laviska Shenault and Mike Williams. Shenault is in an offense with no obvious alpha, whereas Williams is competing with Keenan Allen. One player has a higher ceiling than the other due to the players surrounding them in that offense. If there is an established elite wide receiver, then I will likely look elsewhere when targeting similar players. The upside is what we all chase in fantasy football, as you want players who will make a weekly impact in your lineup. Finding the alphas or the WR1 in the passing attacks of the Steelers, Jaguars, Ravens, Jets, Colts is how you build value later in drafts.

Running backs are much more challenging to determine breakouts, as they can fall into a coach’s doghouse, or the skillset does not match up to the running scheme, such as the inability to pass protect keeping a running back out of passing downs. BTW, scheme and talent are much more critical mesh than they are at wide receiver. Therefore, when targeting a breakout running back, you want those in a crowded backfield with the uncertainty that can be a weapon in the passing game. Based on the traits above, would you instead target Damien Harris or Chase Edmonds? How about Michael Carter or Ronald Jones?

I hope this article allows you to avoid some of the pitfalls teams fall for each year. If you do that, you will gain an edge on the rest of your league.

The post Welcome Back to Fantasy Football: how to master redraft appeared first on Pro Football Mania.

by Michael Obermuller

In 2020, Stefon Diggs led the NFL in receptions with 127 during his inaugural season in Buffalo. It was a legendary campaign for Bills’ new WR1, but he’s still more of a newcomer when it comes to this honor. The recent king of catches has been New Orleans Saints star Michael Thomas, and he’s the only player to actually top Diggs’ 2020 output.

It was a rough 2020 for MT, starting with a high ankle sprain in Week 1. Then, after an altercation on the practice field before his expected Week 5 return, Thomas was benched and fined for breaking team rules. Things got worse from there, as the wide-out did not end up returning until Week 9 (injury flare ups). After six games on the field, Thomas finished the year off it again, joining the injured reserve before Week 15.

“Can’t Guard Mike” was the receptions leader in both 2018 and ’19, and there’s no reason to believe that he cannot take back this title again in 2021. Here’s why.

1. Career Consistency

The New Orleans Saints WR1 caught 149 passes two seasons ago, totaling 1,725 yards and nine touchdowns through the air. The next closest pass-catcher was running back Christian McCaffrey, with 116 receptions. This was not just a career season by MT, it was a campaign that will go down in the NFL history books as one of the greatest of all-time. Thomas was never a one-hit wonder either. He also led the NFL in receptions in 2018 (125), and finished third in 2017 (104).

In fact, since his rookie season in 2016, MT has only caught less than 100 passes twice; 92 as a rookie (which is actually pretty ridiculous) and 40 during his injury-ruined 2020 campaign. This is one of the most consistent players in all of football. Not wide receivers, players. No wide-out has been as steady as Thomas in terms of receptions though, and that includes rivals like DeAndre Hopkins and Davante Adams. He is currently averaging 7.3 receptions per game throughout his career, with a 77.6 percent catch rate.

2. Stats Without Brees

One of the arguments against Thomas has always been that he plays with future Hall of Fame quarterback Drew Brees, but this is an unfair critique of MT’s game. Whenever Brees has missed time in recent years, his top wide receiver has performed just as impressively without him, if not more so.

The stats above are from three games with Teddy Bridgewater in 2019. Thomas averaged 8.3 catches per game during that span, which is actually higher than that 7.3 career average. Brees also went down in 2020, and MT produced yet again (and with lingering injuries and Taysom Hill at QB this time). During four games with Hill throwing the ball, Thomas caught 30 passes for 343 yards, which averaged out to 7.5 receptions per game.

Clearly, MT doesn’t care who’s throwing him the football, so why would it matter if Jameis Winston (or Hill again) is his quarterback in 2021? If anything, Winston is known as a gunslinger who actually led the NFL in passing yardage in 2019. The Saints may also play from behind more with Jameis or Taysom at QB, which generally means more passing attempts and wide receiver targets. Thomas will be just fine without Brees, after all his nickname is Can’t Guard Mike for a reason.

3. Sean Payton

NOLA general manager Mickey Loomis extended Thomas in 2019. The five year deal was worth a record-breaking $96 million-plus. That is an expensive weapon, and don’t think for a second that head coach Sean Payton won’t milk that weapon for every penny so long as he’s wearing a Saints jersey. We are talking about one of the most creative offensive minds the game has ever seen, with one of the best pure route runners of the NFL today.

Whichever route New Orleans goes at quarterback, Thomas will be a major part of it. Outside of 2020, MT has averaged 150.5 targets per season in Payton’s offense, and the HC has already proven he can win without Brees just like the wide-out has proven he can put up numbers without his former QB. This is not meant to disparage Brees, but instead credit a couple of the key influencers on his career. The Saints have also lost WR2 Emmanuel Sanders and TE Jared Cook in free agency, meaning Payton may have to rely on his WR1 more than usual this season.

Two things are for certain; the Saints offense will score in 2021, and Michael Thomas will catch many passes so long as he’s on the field. He may even reclaim his crown.

The post Michael Thomas Will Return to the Reception King in 2021 appeared first on Pro Football Mania.

Whether you had a bad year, or years, in your fantasy league, the future is bright. Every year there will be a group of players, that fall to the back end of the draft, and end up producing with the league’s best. Here is a list of five players, who you can get late in your drafts, that have a giant upside.

Cam Akers (Finished as RB45)

After an already wild start to the offseason, the Los Angeles Rams are in for an exciting 2021. While Matt Stafford may be the focal point of the Rams right now, anyone who has watched Akers at Florida State or in his rookie season knows his upside is through the roof. Akers was only able to get over 10 carries one time prior to week 10, this was because he was sharing a backfield with Darell Henderson and Malcolm Brown. And when Akers did get touches it was mostly as a change of pace back. Akers potential flashed in weeks 12-14. Where he totaled 14.4 points, 16.4 points, and 21.4 points. While these are above average numbers, Akers did so without being the primary receiving back and while splitting carries with Brown and Henderson. With Malcolm Brown set to hit free agency, and Henderson ending the season on an injury, Akers Production is about to go through the roof. The Addition of Matt Stafford will boost his catches out of the backfield as well as keeping the defense honest in the passing game. Akers Likely won’t be picked up as the first RB for any team but his potential is at the minimum an RB2 or starting flex. Akers is the projected as the RB19, and after his strong finish to 2020, i expect him to eclipse that mark.

Robby Anderson (Finished as WR19)

In his time in the NFL, Anderson has shown flashes of his ability on the deep ball. Anderson is very similar to Desean Jackson, a skinny, fast, receiver who at any point, can torch you for an 80-yard touchdown. The only problem is Robby Andersons best QBs have been Sam Darnold and Teddy Bridgewater, who doesn’t throw the deep ball. Everyone knows Teddy Bridgewater was never going to be the future for the Panthers at QB but would fill the void for the time being. The Panthers could very well have a New QB in 2021, with many mock drafts having them acquire a QB with the 8th overall pick. In terms of Andersons production, through weeks 1-5, he was on fire, with four games over 100 yards. But he was never able to eclipse the 100-yard mark for the rest of the season. Anderson, despite finishing the year with three touchdowns, finished as the WR19 in PPR leagues. Three touchdowns to go along with a 1000 yard season does not make much sense. With WR Curtis Samuel being a free agent, Anderson’s production will likely increase even more. Anderson’s lack of touchdowns drives down his demand to the point where you can get him in the later parts of your draft. Anderson will have a very strong 2021, but his skillset and value are greatly underrated, making him a phenomenal late-round pickup.

Hunter Henry (Finished as TE12)

In the NFL, there is no bigger production gap than at the TE position. There were only seven TEs who averaged over 10pgg (PPR) in 2020. So a Tight end who consistently produces is of high value. Los Angeles Chargers TE Hunter Henry showed flashes of his fantasy value in 2019 where he had 55 receptions and 5 touchdowns in only 12 games. In 2021 Henry put up similar numbers in 14 games. With Henry now being a Free Agent, his talents could be put to use elsewhere. Henry has always shown value as a receiver, averaging 12 YPC in his career. And at age 26, he is just getting started. If a pass-heavy team picks him up, Henry’s production could go through the roof. He has been very consistent and at 6’6 poses a great red zone threat. A somewhat down year for Henry is likely due to the fact that the Chargers started rookie QB Justin Herbert for most of the year. Herbert being new to the system was not very familiar with Henry and his abilities which could result in a decreased production. If The Chargers resign Henry, I expect his totals to skyrocket as he develops comfort with Justin Herbert. You should be able to get Henry very late in your draft, his risk-reward is very positive, and I believe his 2021 will be beneficial for fantasy owners. Anderson is projected to be the the WR42 in 2020, a position I guarantee he will eclipse.

Sam Darnold (Finished as QB33)

If any QB is built for a comeback, it is Sam Darnold. In his 3 years in New York, he has flashed potential but ultimately has been limited by poor weapons and worse coaching. With rumors swirling that the Jets are ready to move on from Darnold and trade him for draft capital, it might be time he shows out. Darnold is only 23 years old, which is insanely young for a QB with 3 NFL seasons under his belt. For Dynasty owners, he could provide lasting success for little to nothing. Darnold was only rostered on 1.7% of teams at the end of 2020, making his risk extremely low. Stats do any favors to Darnold, but if he remains in New York, new Head Coach Robert Saleh is likely going to be a better fit for Darnold than “QB Guru” Adam Gase. Look at how Ryan Tannehill’s career changed after leaving Adam Gase’s Dolphins. If Darnold does have a new home, I expect his production to be top 15 at least, making him a valuable QB2 that you could get very late in the draft or off waivers. Darnold is projected to be the QB29 in 2021, a great underestimate.

Ronald Jones (Finished as RB20)

Despite being the most productive back in Tampa, Leonard Fournette gets more attention than Ronald Jones. The lack of attention around Jones is a large reason why he will fall in many drafts. But make no mistake, Ronald Jones will be a top seven RB in 2021. With the Bucs being well over the cap for 2021, and Leonard Fournette set to be a free agent, Jones will be the clear cut RB1 as well as absorbing Fournettes goal line role. In 14 games Jones had 978 yards and Seven TDs, (compared to Fournette’s 367 and Six), making him the RB 20. Jones Rushed for over 100 yards in 4 of 14 games, but if he gets goal-line carries in 2021, his touchdown total will increase greatly. Another positive to Jones is his pairing with Tom Brady. Brady is notorious for check-downs to RBs. Receptions were split between Jones and Fournette in 2020, meaning the loss of Fournette will raise Jones value in PPR leagues tremendously. Ronald Jones has shown flashes of what he can be even rushing for 100 yards in three straight games. Increased touches will put Ronald Jones as an RB1 on any team yet he will likely be available much later in drafts. Ronald Jones is Projected to be the RB25 in 2021, which gives him a great draft value.

The post 5 Fantasy Sleepers for 2021 appeared first on Pro Football Mania.