Najee Harris (vs. KC) – Harris has recently been cleared for contact and is expected to suit up on Friday night. How much he plays is still to be determined but I expect rookie Omarion Hampton to get the majority of the workload.

Matthew Stafford (vs. HOU) – Stafford has missed most of the offseason due to a back injury but has recently been cleared for week 1. This injury is concerning for the 37 year-old quarterback who usually struggles in week 1 contests.

Tyreek Hill (@ IND) – It’s been a noisy offseason for Hill who was called out by his quarterback for his off the field drama. It looks like he is ready to go for week 1 after dealing with an oblique injury. Still, it’s hard to get too excited for Hill this season as his numbers continue to decline.

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Josh Jacobs – Jacobs left last weeks contest with an apparent quad injury. So far details have been sparse on the severity of the injury going forward. We should know more about his injury later today when the Raiders practice. If Jacobs does miss time Zamir White would be next in line to handle the workload.

Justin Jefferson – It was a short-lived return for Jefferson in week 14. After missing 7 games with a hamstring injury Jefferson returned to action last week. Unfortunately, he suffered a chest injury that knocked him out of the game vs. the Raiders. Early reports are that Jefferson could play this week but be cautious in starting him.

Tyreek Hill – Hill went down with an ankle injury in the Monday night loss to the Titans. The good news was he was able to return but he looked to be laboring a bit in the second half. This situation will need to be monitored closely throughout the week.

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Things to look for: After struggling Week 1 against the Jets, the Bills seems to be running on all their cylinders as they battle the Dolphins this week. Granted they played the Commanders who seems to have issues on both sides of the ball. Miami is an offensive juggernaut right now who seem unstoppable. They have all the weapons and even without Jaylen Waddle they will be hard to beat. I think in this game they come back to earth, with Tua Tagovailoa under a lot of pressure.

Who has the edge: Many people will overreact after last weeks dominant win and say Dolphins all the way. Let’s pump the brakes on that one as playing in Buffalo, even in the Fall is very difficult. This game has 34-31 in OT written all over it as both teams can put up a lot of points. What do the Bills plan to do with Tyreek Hill who they have experience playing against both with the Dolphins and Chiefs. They can’t give up the big play and somehow force Miami to run with Raheem Mostert. This will play into their strength of a solid run defense. For Buffalo, they will need to put up points and force a few turnovers from Tua.

Prediction: Buffalo 34 Miami 31 in OT

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Studs

Tua Tagovailoa/Tyreek Hill – We knew the Dolphins and Chargers had the potential to be high scoring and that’s just what we got. This dynamic duo could not be stopped as Hill hauled in 11 receptions for 215 yards and totaled 39 FP in Half PPR. Tagovailoa had a league high 466 yards including 3 passing touchdowns for a total of 28.1 FP. If Tagovailoa can stay healthy this offense will hum all season long.

Dallas Cowboys D/ST – The Cowboys absolutely dismantled the New York Giants on Sunday night. If you started the Cowboys defense you are likely winning your matchup as they finished with 37 FP. The Giants offense never had a chance to get going as their o-line failed to protect Daniel Jones all night long. This could be a long season for Jones and the Giants if they don’t fix their protection issues.

Brandon Aiyuk – The San Francisco 49ers had another dominating performance this time in Pittsburgh. Aiyuk led the way with 8 receptions on 8 targets. He hauled in 2 receiving touchdowns and had 129 receiving yards on the day. Aiyuk very much looks to be the #1 WR for the 49ers as he had a 28.6% target share. If he can stay consistent and healthy he is in for a big year.

Aaron Jones – Jones was one of our recommended starts in our week 1 start ’em, sit ’em column. He finished as RB1 on the day before he left the game with an apparent hamstring issue. We will have to monitor the hamstring but Jones remains a must-start for the foreseeable future.

Duds

Drake London – We expected London to take the next step in his trajectory for year 2 but he was non-existent on Sunday. London finished with 0 catches on only one target. Don’t bail just yet on him but this opening game dud is not ideal.

Tee Higgins – The entire Bengals offense was stuck in the mud for much of the game vs. Cleveland on Sunday. Credit the Browns defense but these stats don’t look good. Somehow Higgins finished with 0 receptions despite having 8 targets. That is one crazy stat.

Antonio Gibson – Gibson had a day to forget for the Washington Commanders. There was a lot of hype surrounding how Gibson would be utilized in Eric Bieniemy’s offense this year. A costly fumble limited Gibson to just 4 touches on the day. Again don’t bail on Gibson just yet but I wouldn’t be starting him.

Monday Night Football Preview

We have a juicy matchup on tap when the Buffalo Bills visit the New York Jets tonight. For the Bills, you’re obviously starting Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs. Beyond that, I am not yet ready to start James Cook or Dalton Kincaid. The Jets defense is once again loaded and it will be tough sledding for the Bills offense.

On the Jets side of the ball, I am starting Garrett Wilson but sitting Aaron Rodgers. I need to see how this offensive line protects before starting Rodgers. Also, I am staying away from the Jets running backs until I see how they are utilized.

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The Good

When the Dolphins traded for Tyreek Hill they gave up a boatload of draft picks. It was a bit of a risk for Miami as they mortgaged their future to win now. The aggressiveness of the Dolphins front office makes sense. They are looking to capitalize on Tagovailoa’s rookie contract and surround him with weapons. Hill pretty much exceeded all expectations in his first season for Miami. He racked up 1,710 receiving yards and 8 total touchdowns. Hill and fellow WR Jaylen Waddle have quickly become one of the best receiving duos in the NFL. You can expect similar numbers in 2023 for Hill and Waddle as they continue to grow together.

The Bad

If you’re looking for a weakness on this Dolphins roster it has to be at the tight end position. Mike Gesicki is no longer with the team as Miami has decided to invest in other positions on offense. It makes sense for the most part. Head coach Mike McDainel has stated in the past that the TE position is not a big part of their offense. While I agree to a point, having an elite TE can open up an offense even more. Think of what Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews have done to their offensive units. Teams will focus their defense more on the outside instead of having to cover the middle which a good TE would occupy.

To no fault of their own, the Dolphins will be thin at the cornerback position until Jalen Ramsey returns. The aggressiveness I touched on earlier by the front office landed the Dolphins Ramsey this offseason. Having Ramsey opposite Xavien Howard will give Miami two lock-down cornerbacks. The hope is for Ramsey to return from injury later this year and hopefully in time for the playoffs. In the meantime, CB Kader Kohou will need to step up for Miami but there are concerns there.

The Prediction

I’m expecting the Miami Dolphins to battle it out with the Buffalo Bills for the AFC East title. In the end, the Dolphins will fall just short of the Division but will secure a wild-card berth. This is a big year for Tua Tagovailoa. If he does well, expect a contract extension. If not the Dolphins will likely be looking for a new quarterback next year.

2023 Record: 10-7 (2nd in the Division)

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The Good

Outside of Mahomes, there are very few players in the NFL as valuable as Travis Kelce. The 33-year-old Kelce is already one of the best tight ends of all time and is showing no signs of slowing down. In 2022, Kelce had 1,338 receiving yards along with a career-high 12 touchdowns. Beyond those stats, he also had 648 YAC (Yards After Catch) which is impressive for an aging tight end. Kelce was the main reason the Chiefs were comfortable with trading Tyreek Hill to the Miami Dolphins. It’s also the reason why the Chiefs don’t necessarily need a star wide receiver on offense. Kelce is their de facto WR1 and I don’t see that changing next season.

The Bad

Andy Reid is one of the best offensive minds the NFL has seen. Reid is one of the reasons Mahomes has been so successful in Kansas City. The other reason is Eric Bieniemy. Bieniemy was the offensive coordinator for the Chiefs since 2018. He has now moved on to a bigger role with the Washington Commanders and will be the full-time play-caller there.

Don’t expect a drastic change to the Chiefs offense as Matt Nagy takes over as the new OC. With that said I could see a slight drop off in Kansas City’s offense with Bieniemy gone. Bieniemy is notorious for being a stickler for the little details. He also expects a lot from his offensive players and is not afraid to get on them. This will show up in critical points during a game and could be the difference between winning and losing. Make no mistake, the Chiefs offense will not be a weakness next season but it’s worth watching how this change will impact it.

The Prediction

In all, I expect the Kansas City Chiefs to once again be the AFC West champions. I do see a slight drop off in wins at 12 as they have one of the toughest schedules in the NFL next season. One thing to keep an eye on is the Chris Jones situation. Jones has yet to report to the team and if he misses time it will be a big blow to the Chiefs defense.

2023-2024 Record: 12-5 (First in the Division)

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When it’s all said and done, Justin Jefferson could be one of the best wide receivers the NFL has ever seen. Jefferson is only 23 and is already a 3x Pro Bowler and 1x All-Pro. He continues to get better each year despite getting double-covered regularly and blanketed by every NFL defense. In his first 3 seasons, he has given us incredible highlights including a one-handed catch for the ages in a critical situation.

When Jefferson was drafted in the 1st round by the Minnesota Vikings it wasn’t a big surprise. If you watched the potent LSU offense you saw a star in the making. Although raw, Jefferson showed outstanding ball skills and would catch just about everything thrown his way. During his final year in College, he lined up primarily in the slot and there were questions on if he could excel in the outside role. It’s safe to say that those questions can already be put to rest as it doesn’t matter where Jefferson is lined up. He has shown he will consistently win in any position.

Miami Dolphins wide receiver Tyreek Hill recently claimed that he would break the single-season receiving yards record. While Hill is talented and very well could come close, it will instead be Justin Jefferson who does it. The Dolphins also have Jaylen Waddle and he will account for a good amount of the target share. Before we look ahead at how Justin Jefferson will break the receiving record, let’s first dive into his stats.

Justin Jefferson Stats

It’s hard not to be in awe when looking at Justin Jefferson’s receiving stats. In 2022 alone, he was first in total receptions (128), first in First Downs Receiving (80) and second in Yards Before Catch (1,185). Jefferson also had a drop rate of only 2.7% which is impressive given the number of targets that went his way (184). His 1,809 receiving yards in 2022 was good for 6th all-time. Jefferson was on pace to break the record last year but was uncharacteristically quiet in his final two games. He had only 5 catches for 53 yards during that span with 0 touchdowns.

Next, I want to take a look at comparing Justin Jefferson to the best wide receiver of all time, Jerry Rice. I took the overall stats from both of their first 3 seasons and here is what I found.

• Jefferson had 124 more receptions than Rice (324 vs 200)
• Jefferson also had 1,250 more receiving yards than Rice (4,825 vs 3,575)
• Rice had 15 more touchdowns than Jefferson (40 vs 25)

As you can see the numbers are similar given that Rice played in 6 less games than Jefferson in his first three seasons. The 40 touchdowns by Rice in that span is the second most all-time just behind Randy Moss who had 43. It’s still too early to put Jefferson in the class of the greats but you can see where the stats are trending.

How Justin Jefferson Will Break the Record

So far, we’ve recapped Jefferson’s first three seasons and broke down some key statistics vs the greats. Now let’s point out how he will break the single-season receiving record in 2023.

Next season, the Minnesota Vikings have a fairly manageable schedule. They are in the middle of the pack in terms of strength of schedule. While NFL teams’ success can change drastically from year to year, I expect the Vikings to finish first in the NFC North. The Chicago Bears and Detroit Lions finished towards the bottom in NFL total team defense last year and I expect the Packers defense will take a step back.

Putting the schedule aside, I project that Jefferson will finish the year with 2,015 receiving yards. If you look at the stats above, Jefferson has averaged around +200 yards each season and +20 receptions.

The Vikings also drafted Jordan Addison in the first round of the 2023 NFL Draft. While some will say this is going to take away from Jefferson’s production, I am going in the opposite direction. This will only help Jefferson as some of the defensive attention will now be off him with an additional weapon on the field. With that said, I expect Justin Jefferson to break the single-season receiving yards record in 2023 and I can’t wait to watch him do it.

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AFC East

The AFC East is mighty tough this year and it starts with each quarterback leading their respective teams. Let’s start with the Buffalo Bills, who in my eyes, are the favorites. Josh Allen is the best Quarterback and has the best supporting cast. They have come so close the last few years and is this the year they get over the hump. Then you have the Miami Dolphins. Last year they showed flashes of how good they can be with their two track stars Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. The issue I have with the Dolphins is the health of their QB Tua Tuagovlaia. If he can play 17 games, he gives them a chance to win the AFC East. And the Jets who with Aaron Rodgers and his supporting cast look great on paper. The Jets brought back receivers Rodgers is familiar with, and along with a solid D should be in the running to win the division.

Each of those three teams could easily see between 9 and 11 wins this season, with the Bills being maybe 12-5. Finally, you have the Patriots who you can never count out. As long as Bill Belichick is at the helm they will always be a solid team. Did they do enough this offseason? Can they play with the other teams? These are the questions to be answered, but if there the worse team in this division, what’s that say?

AFC West

Now let’s look at the AFC West led by the Kansas City Chiefs. The Chiefs will always be in the running with Patrick Mahomes leading that team. You have the Chargers and Justin Herbert who, with their solid defense will give the Chiefs a run for the money. And then you have the Raiders and Broncos. These teams I don’t completely trust with questions like will Russell Wilson improve from his dreadful last season. It’s definitely possible especially with Sean Payton now the head coach. Even with the Chiefs in that Division I have the AFC West as third best in the National Football League.

AFC North

Finally, the AFC North. After Lamar Jackson decided to work with Baltimore Ravens and come back I have them definitely in contention. They have a great team around Lamar and if he can stay healthy they will be a force to be reckoned with. I think they need another big time receiver, maybe Deandre Hopkins? With J.K. Dobbins coming back they will be hard to stop. Of course, we also have the Cincinnati Bengals, who came oh so close to beating the Chiefs if it wasn’t for a really bad penalty on the Bengals lineman. Joe Burrow has proved he’s a big game player who doesn’t get rattled. And then the two other teams the Cleveland Browns and Pittsburgh Steelers. These teams will probably hover around .500 perhaps a little above or below. I have concerns with each of those teams quarterbacks.

Cue the drum roll………… The best division in the National Football League this year is the AFC East. Like I said earlier, they all have a chance to be at least 10-7 with a few of those teams more like 11-6 or 12-5. They will probably beat up on each other which will make them a better team when they start the playoffs. Rodgers has a chip on his shoulder this year with a lot to prove. We know what we get from Josh Allen and Tua (when healthy) and I think we’ll see Mac Jones improve from last year. This year should be exciting, and based on the above it’s clear the AFC is superior to the NFC.

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Buffalo Bills: Is This The Year They Go All The Way?

The Buffalo Bills have been one of the most consistent teams in the past few years and are always a contender with Josh Allen leading the way at QB. They were able to avoid any fires by being able to resign Shaq Lawson and Jordan Poyer to keep their defense intact. The running game has been added with the signings of Latavius Murray and Damien Harris. They added an extra weapon in Dalton Kincaid in the draft. This is what I call a successful offseason. The problem that always arises in the season is the missing running game which makes Josh Allen double the work but also increases the chance of injuries. Now, Josh Allen is built like a bull and is often the biggest guy on the field. All the hits will add up and Buffalo is one bad play away from disaster. If the running game looks decent, they have a good chance of moving past Cincinnati and Kansas City and hopefully playing for the Lombardi trophy.

Miami Dolphins: Is Tua Tagovailoa The Answer At Quarterback?

The Miami Dolphins have a lot of shiny weapons. They have upgraded with big names such as Tyreek Hill, Bradley Chubb, and now, Jalen Ramsey. Add in the leadership of HC Mike McDaniel and the Dolphins look like a perennial contender. The biggest question is at quarterback, however. Tua’s health and durability have been a concern ever since he was drafted coming out of college. Last season, the concerns got even worse as Tua suffered multiple concussions and people were scared for his safety. With all the weapons and a limited window, the Dolphins have to be guessing Tua’s future at QB as he is also maybe in the lower end of QB talent in the AFC. A disappointing season where they don’t make the playoffs could be a disaster for Tua’s future in Miami.

New England Patriots: What’s With All The Mac Jones Drama?

Mac Jones’ career has been a rollercoaster and we’ve only been in year two. He helped lead the Patriots in his first season to the playoffs and many looked at him as a young Tom Brady. The season after, they hired Matt Patricia to be the offensive play call guy. This move had some people guessing as Patricia is a defense guy and it showed. Mac Jones looked worse in year two and the Patriots didn’t make the playoffs. This offseason has been a little more mysterious as the Patriots brought in Will Levis and signs have shown that Mac wasn’t happy with what was happening. New England is known to be a very quiet and deliberate franchise. Now, they are in unfamiliar waters as they don’t seem to be the top dog they once were.

New York Jets: What Is A Successful Season For Aaron Rodgers?

The New York Jets made the biggest move in the offseason when they traded for QB Aaron Rodgers in a blockbuster deal. It looks like Zach Wilson‘s time is done as the starter for the Jets and a more mature face will be in charge of the Jets. One of the main differences between the AFC and the NFC is the star power at QB and the depth of the teams. In terms of QBs, he has to face the likes of Josh Allen, Tua Tagovailoa, and Mac Jones twice per year. He’ll also face the AFC West which involves Patrick Mahomes, Russell Wilson, Justin Herbert, and Jimmy Garoppolo. There will not be a lot of easy wins to come by so they have to be on their A-game each week. Other than the star power at QB, the AFC is a much deeper conference in terms of talent. The Jets were 7-10 and last place in the division last season. They would be battling for a playoff spot if they were in the NFC South. Now, I don’t project them to win the AFC East as Buffalo is still the top team in the division. It’s also his first year with the Jets so some hiccups are expected. If the Jets get a wild card spot and look good in the playoffs, I think the season can be called a success.

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PRESEASON EXPECTATIONS

Tyreek Hill was one of the most interesting figures by the time of the 2022 NFL Preseason. The Kansas City Chiefs couldn’t afford to extend Tyreek so they decided to look for a trade partner for him. Here comes the Miami Dolphins, who shocked everyone. This deal would change the perception of the NFL as the Miami Dolphins have a legitimate WR 1 and WR 2 in Jaylen Waddle. People wanted to see how this deal would benefit Tua Tagovailoa and the new Miami offense.

DRAFT EXPECTATIONS

Come draft time, Tyreek was one of the WRs people wanted to draft early. He had an ADP of 34.3 which is a 3rd round pick at the latest. High expectations were on Tyreek as he was the 8th-ranked WR.

OVERALL SEASON PRODUCTION

Tyreek Hill definitely rewarded his owners with another great year. His performance led him to the 2nd best WR this season and the 8th overall ranked player. This is his 3rd straight top-10 finish in terms of PPR. Since 2016, he has had five top-10 finishes as a WR. He is definitely one of the best WRs in the game. The new Miami WR caught 119 passes for 1710 yards and 7 TDs. The passes and yards are a career-high.

CRITICAL MOMENTS DURING THE SEASON

Week 2 vs Baltimore Ravens

It wouldn’t be long until Tyreek Hill made his presence known to the Miami Dolphins. In an exciting 42-38 win for the Dolphins, Tyreek was unstoppable. The new Miami WR caught 11 of 13 passes for 190 yards and a couple of TDs. He caught a 48-yard TD and a 60-yard TD in the 3rd quarter in a span of fewer than three minutes as Miami rallied to win with 19 seconds left. He ended the day with 42 FP and WR 2.

Week 9 vs Chicago Bears

In a matchup with the lowly Bears, the offense was surprisingly needed as Chicago came out to play against the Dolphins in Week 9. Tyreek Hill was a difference-maker when he caught seven passes for 143 yards and a TD. Early in the 2nd quarter, Tyreek caught a 3-yard TD pass to take a 14-10 lead. His explosiveness is incredible as few WRs can go for six catches and 140 yards.

Week 13 vs San Francisco 49ers

The 49ers have one of the top defenses in the league and their main goal was to stop Tyreek Hill. The 49ers got the win 33-17 but they weren’t able to hinder Tyreek. Hill came up with nine catches for 146 yards and a TD. He had more than half of the total receiving yards of the entire Dolphins team. The touchdown made it a single-possession game but the 49ers proceeded to score two straight TDs. Even against elite defenses, Tyreek cannot be stopped.

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