Which Star in the Flex Should be Traded From Your Roster?
By: Kyle Williams (Twitter: @betonthegame)
With dynasty leagues comes a lot of different things. Stress is the main thing. Selling, buying, waivers, draft picks, offseason moves, there is so much that goes on throughout the offseason. Things change in an instant in life and in dynasty. Your reactions to the news and how you use it to your advantage is what makes you a better player.
But dynasty leagues aren’t all bad. In fact, they are a lot of fun. Buying and selling is half the fun, rebuilding is the most fun. An acquiring an orphan dynasty team and making them into a championship contender is my bread and butter. It’s what I consider to be the most fun thing about dynasty.
This past few weeks I’ve been acquiring up several teams destroyed and left for dead by several owners in dynasty formats. It’s sad, but rebuilding is my job and it’s a passion. This is where I get the inspiration and the ideas to write these articles. now let’s dive in and find out some options for us to sell high on in dynasty while we still can. Remember the goal is to get optimal value for the player now while it’s at it’s highest.
Brandin Cooks, WR, Houston Texans
Anything Texans right now is super hard to hold on to. From running back to tight end to wide receiver. With the news of Deshaun Watson wanting out things are scary. The rumors over the past week have been flying. We’ve heard potential landing spot after potential landing spot. But it’s all but imminent that he’s as good as gone.
If Watson is in fact traded this will sink the value of any player on the offenses, especially Cooks. But that isn’t just the only reason I want to sell. It’s the production. This season Cooks had 119 targets, 81 receptions, 150 yards, and six touchdowns. Those are tremendous stats, don’t get me wrong. But you don’t buy past production and honestly, if you break down where the points came from you can see the production is super misleading. Let’s take a look.
During the first four weeks of the season, Cooks had only one fantasy relevant game. It came in Week 2 in which he scored 14.5 fantasy points. He also had a game where he dropped zero, while the other two games were sub-five points. That’s awful to begin with.
He did however produce in weeks 5-9 but it’s what he did in Weeks 10-15 that concern me. He didn’t score more than 13.5 points in any of those games and scored zero in week 14 as well. Concerning to say the least.
If you really break down the production a lot of his production came in Weeks 16 and 17 where likely no fantasy championships teams played or had Cooks. In the final two games he a combined 26 targets, 18 catches, 307 yards, and three touchdowns. A massive chunk of his production to say the least.
The production can be broken down and show that he clearly wasn’t great. I also don’t like Cooks due to the Watson rumors, but to make things worse the injury history is the scariest sight. Almost every season, Cooks is guaranteed to miss a minimum of two games. His concussion history is super concerning as he has had at least five recorded concussions and could be another big hit away from retirement.
At age 27 with all the factors around him and Will Fuller coming back likely im trading Cooks while I can. The situation can’t ever get better than it was last season so his value can only go down from here.
Raheem Mostert, RB, San Francisco 49ers
It’s no secret how much Kyle Shanahan the head coach of the 49ers loves running the football. As much as that’s exciting for Mostert he loves running it with multiple backs. That’s the concern for Mostert.
Last season, the 49ers ran with a rotation of backs lead by Mostert. Guys like JaMycal Hasty, Tevin Coleman, Jeff Wilson, and others had logged carries and even showed prowess. Not a good sign for Mostert to start with. The main back I’m concerned about competition with Mostert is Jeff Wilson. At times during the year, he showed real promise.
Mostert is a 29-year-old back with injury issues squaring off against what looks to be a young explosive 25-year-old back in Wilson. As shown above, Wilson in spot starts and limited work had four games of 20+ fantasy points even with competition. All that while Mostert played eight games last season and had only two games of double-digit fantasy points and only one was over 20.
Things get worse for Mostert as well, in eight games last season the 49ers were very clear he isn’t the goal-line back. He had just 11 carries while Wilson had 25 in 12 games. It’s clear that the 49ers may be moving to Wilson as there future.
If things weren’t already bad enough it may be worse. The QB situation is in potential shambles and the 49ers may even bring in another and potentially more competition in the running back room. Jimmy Garappolo remains the starter for now but missed a huge chunk of 2020 with injuries.
With the quarterback play in question the offense may be in shambles next season causing the run game to be the focus of the defense. With the competition and the concerns around the roster things aren’t bright for a 29-year-old running back who is battling injuries. I’m trading Mostert who likely has 2-3 years left in the league.
David Johnson, RB, Houston Texans
A lot of the same rules that applied to Brandin Cooks above apply to Johnson here. Watson is a pillar of success for just about anyone in the offense. In fact, he’s so good that he allowed a guy like Carlos Hyde who is ancient and frankly not great to rush for 1000 yards in 2019. Amazing.
If Watson is to leave you have to sell Johnson. A lot of people may list him as a potential buy-low after that successful three-game stretch to end the season. In the final few weeks, Johnson recorded 21+ fantasy points in each game. Take a look at the stat lines.
- 11 receptions, 106 yards, 1 touchdown, 23.3 fantasy points
- 12 carries, 128 yards, 1 touchdown, 28.9 fantasy points
- 14 carries, 84 yards, 1 touchdown, 21.0 fantasy points
As you can see at the end of the season he found some stride in his game not only running but receiving the football. But that’s with plus matchups, Watson in the offense, and Will Fuller being gone. Factor all that out and he’s just a low-end RB2 if you’re lucky.
But the injuries are a huge concern as well. Johnson has been fragile in his career. This year he missed four games due to injury and has only played 16 games just once in the past four seasons. I’m all aboard selling high based on name and end of season production. Get rid of Johnson now before we get Watson being traded news.
T.Y. Hilton, WR, Indianapolis Colts
This is a wait and see type trade. Recently, Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford and the organization have agreed to part ways. With that in the news it’s raised questions on a landing spot, that’s where the Colts come in. Their quarterback just retired and they are now left wondering what’s next. Insert Matthew Stafford.
I always talk about the value being in the unknown. This is where Hilton and Stafford come into play. Let’s live in fantasy land for a moment and say Stafford does head to Indy to pair with Hilton. That’s an ideal scenario and a true win-win for both sides. That’s where your value comes in.
Hilton automatically in the mind of fantasy owners becomes a no doubt top-20 option and arguably pushes potential WR1 numbers for fantasy teams. If that’s the case the stock rises and you can sell for much more then he is worth at the moment. That’s why we hold… for now.
But you may be saying “why are you selling a guy who will potentially be a WR1?” Well, I don’t think that will happen. And honestly, I’m a huge fan of the other Colts wide receiver options. My heart beats at the idea of Michael Pittman Jr. being paired with Stafford. Not to mention third year pro Parris Campbell remains in the mix.
In my mind, Hilton is the WR3 on that offense behind the two young guns. That makes him a sell with the unknown that floats around him. If Stafford is to get traded here I am selling Hilton to anyone for what I can get. Right now his value is around a third-rounder but I don’t believe it’s out of the question that midseason you could fetch a high-end second-rounder if Stafford heads to Indy.
Chris Carson, RB, Seattle Seahawks
Last but certainly not least is Chris Carson. One of the most clear sells in dynasty on the list. And honestly, I think just about everyone is trying to sell him. In the two dynasty leagues that I am in his name is being thrown around left and right. Nobody seems to want him.
And that makes a ton of sense why. Oft-injured, Carson once again couldn’t complete the 2020 season on a high note. The 26-year-old runner once again missed four games on the season while battling nagging injuries. In fact, the explosive runner is almost due to miss a game or two each season. He has never played 16 games in a season and over his first four years in the league, he has missed a total of 16 games. Not great for a guy entering free agency.
With the injuries mounting and impending free agency on the horizon the Seahawks would be smart to make a move for a replacement. Wether its the draft or free agency, I don’t know. But I do expect for them to make strides in effort to replace Carson.
The Seahawks do have a young back in DeeJay Dallas who looked very solid at times in his first season. The young only saw one game of 10+ carries but made the most of the opportunity. During that start, Dallas looked solid racking up 60+ yards from scrimmage along with a few catches and paired that with two touchdowns. With him entering his second year and looking to improve we could see major strides this offseason which means bad things for Carson.
There are a ton of reasons to not love Carson from his injury to the likely competition. I’m selling him with the name value as of right now.