David Montgomery Tops The List
By Darren Smith
It’s that time of the year again. The months after the Super Bowl are prime time to get your Dynasty team back into shape. Most Dynasty managers are looking to acquire young and talented breakout stars. While this is usually a good strategy, there is a flip side: Selling High.
Trading these types of players could be even more beneficial to your team by selling at the peak value. I’m here to tell you which young studs you should be selling to return top profit. Here are 5 breakout stars, under the age of 24, that are a sell in Dynasty leagues:
1.) David Montgomery – Running Back, Chicago Bears, 23 Years Old
David Montgomery was a fantasy anomaly in the 2020 season – just his second year in the NFL. Finishing as the RB #4 in PPR leagues was not on anyone’s expectation list. Monty totalled 1070 rushing yards and averaged 4.33 YPC blowing out last season’s stats on the same amount of attempts. However, what really created his studly fantasy output was touchdowns. David scored 7 TD’s in his last 5 games while never failing to reach the endzone after week 13. This was great for his owners making a playoff push, but these TD numbers are just not realistically sustainable. The Bears had incompetent QB’s all season (Foles, Trubisky) forcing them to rely on the ground game to have offensive production. With a new QB, I expect Mongomery’s touches to decrease and his TD’s to regress. Sell high while he is at his peak value.
Comparable Value:
- Mid 1st
- Late 1st + slight RB downgrade
2.) Josh Jacobs – Running Back, LV Raiders, 23 Years Old
Don’t get me wrong – I love Josh Jacobs. But let’s take a look at the numbers before you call me crazy. Jacobs finished as the RB #8 in PPR, upgrading from his #21 finish in 2019. If you look deeper into the stata, this is because his TD’s went up by almost double with a slight increase in receptions and receiving yards. When you break down the rushing numbers, Jacobs actually regressed. The 2nd year player rushed 273 times in 2020, up from 242 in 2019. But his rushing yardage total dropped by 100, and his average YPC fell to 3.9, opposed to 2019’s 4.75. More opportunity is a good thing, but Josh failed to capitalize. These lower numbers may not all be his fault (O-Line struggles), but my advice is to sell Jacobs before he regresses any further.
Comparable Value:
- Top 1st
- Two mid 1sts
3.) Justin Jefferson – Wide Receiver, Minnesota Vikings, 21 Years Old
Yeah, yeah, yeah. I get it. Jefferson is the consensus top WR in dynasty leagues. Don’t jump on me just yet. I have nothing bad to say about Justin Jefferson. He had one of the most prolific rookie seasons ever, posting 1400 yards on only 88 receptions. 15.9 YPC is incredible – he was PPR WR #6 as a 21 year old rookie. There is only one reason JJ is a sell. Value. With all the hype surrounding him, you can rack in a huge haul trading him away. In my most recent start up draft, Jefferson was the first WR off the board – over top names like Davante Adams and Tyreek Hill. If your team is contending for a championship and you own Jefferson, you could possibly receive a top 5-10 WR in return that is only slightly older, while also acquiring 1st round picks. I’m not saying he’s not a good asset for your team, but you could potentially double JJ’s value if you play your cards right. Managers are willing to pay just about whatever it takes to get him. Why not at least throw some feelers out there to see what comes back?
Comparable Value:
- 1.01 + WR downgrade
- 3 mid/late 1sts
- Top 10 WR + mid/late 1st
4.) James Robinson – Running Back, Jacksonville Jaguars, 22 Years Old
James Robinson may be the most questionable piece that owners are struggling with. I see daily tweets asking “What do I do with James Robinson?” As you may be noticing a trend in this article, my advice is sell. The undrafted rookie had a great first season finishing as the RB #7 in PPR. Robinson never fell below 10 fantasy points per game and was the model of consistency in 2020. Talent aside, his team is the reason for my recommendation. The Jaguars have the most cap space in the entire NFL at over $77.5 million. This money could mean they could sign a UFA veteran RB, which could eat into James’s workload (about 80% snap percent in 2020). The Jags also have an enormous amount of draft picks in 2021: #1 (We all know who), #25, #33, #45 and #65 in only the first 3 rounds. Chances are, one of these picks will be an RB. Capitalize on Robinson’s value now instead of taking the gamble.
Comparable Value:
- Mid 1st
- Late 1st + RB Downgrade
5.) Chase Claypool – Wide Receiver, Pittsburgh Steelers, 22 Years Old
Last but not least: Chase Claypool. The rookie came out the gate swinging in 2020, scoring 3 TD’s against my Eagles, along with many other impressive stats in the first half of the year. However, from Week 13 on, Chase averaged only 9.7 points in PPR leagues, catching only 17 passes on 35 targets in 5 games. This is concerning. Claypool will be the WR 3 behind Diontae Johnson, and JuJu Smith-Schuster if the Steelers decide to stick with him in 2021. Not to mention that Pittsburgh will be on the lookout for a new franchise QB for the first time in 17 years, as Big Ben may only have one more left in the tank. Claypool’s production is either going to rely on a fresh rookie QB, the dreaded Mason Rudolph, or newly signed Dwayne Haskins. Yuck. Chase definitely has talent. But for Dynasty purposes, you can get a higher return in a trade than his stand alone value for your team. Sell Claypool high while Ben is still there to boost his stats.
Comparable Value:
- Mid 1st
- Late 1st + WR downgrade
Follow me on Twitter @FFBirdGang and comment your thoughts.
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