Watson Tops the list of QB to Sell
By Jesse Moeller (Twitter: JMoeller05)
I am listing three quarterbacks to sell before the upcoming draft. These players either hold significant value or saw a spike in value this offseason. You will not see players such as Teddy Bridgewater or Mitchell Trubisky mentioned in this article, only quarterbacks who are alluring to dynasty managers.
Deshaun Watson
If you have listened to the news, you have heard about what is going on with Watson this offseason. The off-field problems with Watson have become the elephant in the room. Watson was a consensus top-three dynasty quarterback in January. Now it seems as if his stock is dropping further each and every day.
For me, it comes down to how risk-averse you are in dynasty. Are you willing to possibly lose an entire season or more of production from this player? I for one am not, and would get out while the dynasty value has not completely collapsed.
Watson has iterated that he does not want to play for the Texans, as they are one of the worst organizations in the NFL. If Watson is cleared of charges you have to deal with him possibly sitting out the season due to his disdain for his employer. With all the smoke around this player, I’m content to sell him and let another team deal with the uncertainty.
Browsing the DLF trade finder here are some of the Superflex deals that occurred within the last week.
- Watson, Phillip Lindsey, 2022 1st for Justin Herbert
- Watson & JuJu for 2021 1.01 (AKA Mr. Trevor Lawerence)
- Watson for Sam Darnold, DJ Chark, Preston Williams & 2021 1.08
- Watson & Kenyan Drake for Jameis Winston & Derrick Henry
- Watson for Aaron Rodgers & Josh Reynolds.
As you can see a player who was viewed as a top-three Superflex quarterback has fallen quite a bit in value. I would be content with all these deals as you are getting valuable pieces in return for your roster. I would happily accept the 1.06 in Superflex drafts for Watson. If I had to pivot from picks to players I would take Kirk Cousins/Tom Brady plus something on top and be thrilled with my return.
Daniel Jones
The hype is building around Jones due to the signing of Kenny Golladay in New York. Looking from afar it resembles a perfect marriage. Golladay is one of the best contested-catch wide receivers in the league, and Jones had one of the best deep-ball completion % in the league last year. What seems to be forgotten is Jones was dreadful as a rookie at this, ranking 28th in the league in 2019. That somehow does not fit the prevailing narrative around Jones and Golladay.
Jones had a less than ideal second season in the league as he directed the team to a 5-9 record. That record is eye-opening when you have a defense finishing top 12 in points and yards allowed. Meanwhile, the offense under Jones was 31st in points and yards. It was not Jones that kept the team in games, it was the defense. The fans and media are not known for patience, another similar season for Jones could be his last as a starter for Big Blue.
The statistics paint a similar picture as here is a list of statistics Jones finished 21st or worse in 2020.
- True Completion %
- Pressured Completion %
- True Passer Rating
- Total QBR
- EPA
- Yards Per Attempt
- Red Zone Completion %
- Passing Plays Per Game
- Plays Per Game
- Danger Plays
- Interceptable Passes
- Passing TD
What that tells me is that Jones was frequently kept in games by his defense, yet continued to fall short in 2020. This can also be perceived as Jason Garrett slander (It most definitely is.) The addition of Golladay will help, I just do not see Jones ever being a reliable starter for the NFL or fantasy.
The hype machine will continue to build with the Giants having the 11th pick of the first round. If they land a big-name offensive rookie dynasty managers will convince themselves that acquiring Jones is the missing piece for them. Sell Jones for a first-round pick or a proven veteran quarterback plus., and know you made a clever dynasty move. I’m expecting the Giants to replace Daniel Jones in 2022. Get out while this player still has cache attached to his name.
Sam Darnold
That’s a great video by the Panther’s social media team. The question I have is does Sam Darnold improve the offense? Seeing Twitter respond you would think Sam Darnold was the missing piece that will unlock the playoffs for the Panthers. I still have serious concerns about the quarterback for the Panthers.
Here are the PFF Grade (rankings) for Darnold’s three seasons in New York.
2018 – 64.7 (28th) 😦
2019 – 63.6 (30th) 😨
2020 – 58.4 (34th) 🤮
Considering there are only 32 teams in the NFL this speaks to how poorly Darnold has played in his short time in the NFL. Add to the fact Darnold has a career sub 60% completion percentage, there are very few statistics that favor Darnold’s time in New York. It is a hard sell for me to say Darnold upgrades the offense in Carolina.
The saving grace for Darnold? The lofty draft capital that is attached to his name. Do you know who has better career numbers than him? Mitchell freaking Trubisky! 🤯 Yet one player is a starting quarterback, and the other is a backup in Buffalo. I will let Nick Whalen lay it out below
Let the hype build as the talent on Carolina’s offense is undeniable. Pairing Darnold with McCaffery, D.J. Moore, and Anderson sure sounds like a winning formula to me. That is until you remember what we saw from Darnold the last three years. Someone in your league will be willing to offer a first-round pick for him. As soon as that happens you take the offer and run.
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