By Levi Ellis
Now that the NFL draft is over, redraft leagues are a full go. Today we’re discussing three second year players that you should be fading in redraft leagues.
The player at the top of my list is Henry Ruggs. Ruggs in my opinion was over-drafted last year by the Las Vegas Raiders and in turn was over drafted in the fantasy community. Everyone hoped he would be the next Tyreek Hill and instead they got the next John Ross. To be fair, I think Ruggs will be much better than Ross but I do not believe he is going to ever live up to his draft capital. First and foremost Ruggs is not in the proper offense to take advantage of his skill set. Carr is not a deep ball thrower and to this point, John Gruden has not proven he can or will take advantage of his offensive weapons outside of Darren Waller. Ruggs is a threat any time the ball is in his hands because of his speed but Gruden has to find ways to get him the ball and at this point, I’m not confident that will happen. In order for Ruggs to ever repay his draft status capital, Gruden is going to have to make some offensive changes. There’s no doubt in my mind that Ruggs has an effect on a real-life NFL offense as defenses have to plan for his speed, however, we have yet to see that and may never see that in fantasy leagues. For these reasons I’m fading Ruggs in redraft leagues and he is nothing more than a buy-low candidate for me in dynasty. If by some miracle Aaron Rodgers gets traded to the Raiders then Ruggs would be an immediate buy, in my opinion, however, I think this is very unlikely.
The second player on my list is Jalen Reagor. Reagor is on my list for many of the same reasons as Ruggs. I believe he was over drafted and the early results prove that point with guys like Justin Jefferson, Tee Higgins and Chase Claypool being selected after him. Reagor has suspect hands and is playing in an offense that is likely to rely heavily on the run. Furthermore he is no better than the second option behind the recently selected Devonta Smith and I would argue that both Miles Sanders and Dallas Goedert will be in line ahead of him in the passing game. Reagor is a very talented player but one that hasn’t yet put it all together and quite frankly I’m not sure he ever will. Like Ruggs, Reagor is a buy low dynasty player for me but a guy that I am completely fading in redraft leagues. I recently traded Zach Ertz in a dynasty league for Reagor because the value was too good to pass up, however I just as quickly flipped Reagor and rookie pick 2.9 to move up to 1.10 in our rookie draft.
The third and final player on my list of second year guys to fade in redraft leagues this year is KJ Hamler. Hamler is primarily a deep ball guy and I personally don’t see Desean Jackson when I look at Hamler. I think he is another guy that was over drafted with teams so obsessed with speed and the need to match the Kansas City Chiefs model. Denver has so many weapons and Hamler just isn’t that exciting when compared to the other options. Think about it like this for a moment, if you’re the coach, offensive coordinator or quarterback for the Denver Broncos and you have Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy, Noah Fant, Melvin Gordon, Javonte Williams, Tim Patrick all on the roster how much emphasis are you really going to be placing on getting the ball in Hamler’s hands. The answer is easy, not much! I would want the ball in every single one of those guys hands over Hamler and I know the argument can be made for Hamler over Patrick but it’s not even close with the rest of that list. Sure I expect Hamler to have a few long touchdowns this year and maybe in a best ball format Hamler could be a decent player to roster but in redraft he is just too risky to be in the starting lineup when you factor in all the weapons the Broncos have and the lack of quarterback consistency on the roster.
Fantasy football is a game of risk and chance but you can also minimize your risk when drafting and not just select talented players but select players where their teams have a specific plan and role for them. Unfortunately all three of the above guys are in offenses that do not have significant enough roles to make them fantasy relevant and all three have sub-par quarterback play. Don’t do what the Raiders, Eagles and Broncos did and overdraft these guys. There are too many other great options to take this kind of risk!
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