Top three undervalued offenses in 2021

The 49ers offense is one of the few offenses that remains underrated

Daniel Racz @Danny___Dimes

Introduction

The recent infatuation with stacking in best ball has emphasized identifying good offenses. While stacks from teams like the Buffalo Bills, Kansas City Chiefs, and Dallas Cowboys will undoubtedly be productive this year, they require significant draft capital. There are a few offenses that have the potential to wildly outperform their ADPs and come in clutch down the stretch. 

San Francisco 49ers

There is a lot of uncertainty in San Francisco, and with uncertainty comes opportunity. George Kittle (TE3, ADP of 26) and Brandon Aiyuk (WR27, ADP of 60) are priced as if the 49ers will not be a high-volume passing offense. However, Trey Sermon (RB27, ADP of 72) and Raheem Mostert (RB29, ADP of 83) are priced as if the team will not run the ball often. 

If the 49ers pass the ball often, Aiyuk and Kittle (and to some extent, Deebo Samuel) can outperform their ADPs in a meaningful way. If the offense runs the ball a lot, Mostert and Sermon are criminally undervalued. If the 49ers’ offense is dynamic, perhaps every piece of the offense can have an above-average win rate. The 49ers also have an easy playoff schedule, including matchups against the Falcons, Titans, and Texans, allowing them to smash in tournaments. 

New York Giants

Am I a homer for including the Giants? Undoubtedly. Do I sincerely believe that the Giants offense is drafted much closer to its floor in comparison to its ceiling? Confidently. The hesitancy around Saquon Barkley is warranted, but he offers unparalleled upside. Going routinely in the middle of the first round (ADP of 5.4 currently) is a crime. Later in drafts, wide receivers like Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton are undervalued. Shepard, though injury prone, routinely gives you usable weeks year after year. Darius Slayton is likely to play on the outside in most three-wide receiver sets and is excellent injury insurance in the likely event that either Shepard or Kenny Golladay misses games this season.  

The last important piece of the offense is Daniel Jones. After his less-than-stellar 12 total touchdown season in 2020, Jones can not do much worse. However, he does not need to at his current price. With an ADP of 167 at QB23, Jones offers legitimate upside. While his floor is certainly lower than later quarterbacks like Derek Carr, his rushing upside and dynamic weapons give him a chance to be a top 12 quarterback.  

Washington Football Team

The team without a name is not a team without meaningful fantasy contributors. The revamped offense is perhaps the league’s most slept on. Running back Antonio Gibson (RB13, ADP of 16.7) is primed for a breakout. Coach Ron Rivera has stressed that the team wants to unleash him in the passing game, a la Christian McCaffrey in Carolina. Gibson’s upside should not be underestimated, he has overall RB1 firmly within his range of outcomes. The addition of Quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick (QB21, ADP of 154.8) can keep the team’s weapons relevant. Fitz has supported multiple top wide receivers, including Devante Parker’s miraculous 2019 season. Fitzmagic should easily keep both Terry Mclaurin (WR11, ADP of 30.7) and Curtis Samuel (WR41, ADP of 85.2) fantasy relevant. Given Fitz’s gunslinger play style, rookie deep threat Dyami Brown (WR78, ADP of 176.9) is also worth a flier.

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