Joe Mixon is a must trade for in dyansty
By Zach Attack @FFChalupaBatman
In dynasty leagues, typically the best way to improve your team immediately is by trading because the waiver wire usually does not have players that can make a significant impact on your starting roster. The key to any trade is understanding player value. You can trade for players when you feel that value is low which is “buying low,” but you expect to rebound so you don’t have to give up as much then reap the rewards if the player does bounce back and plays better. You could also “buy high,” which is when you trade for a high-performing player so you have to give up a lot to make the trade happen. However, you think that player can continue to play better and expect the value to continue to rise so now you have a stud player on your roster that still has more value in the future. We are going to highlight three running backs whose value has dipped and you should trade for now before their value bounces back when they play well this season: Joe Mixon, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, and Chris Carson.
Joe Mixon’s current dynasty ADP, from DLF.com, is 24.17, which is the end of the 2nd round. Mixon’s lowest point of value was in March 2021 at pick 36 (end of 3rd round), and his value has been slowly rising since then. However, his peak value was a year ago in July 2021 when he was pick 7.17 (mid-1st round). Mixon’s value will continue to increase as more hype comes from training camp about him getting more snaps and targets, and if he finishes as an RB1 this season then his value will jump back up towards the end of the 1st round for 2022. Joe Mixon has burned a lot of fantasy football players because of his injuries, which may make it easier to “buy low” when trading for him. Here are the reasons why you should trade for Joe Mixon right now:
- He will be 25 years old at the end of July, even though he is going into his fifth season. He is in the prime of his career
- He signed his second contract last season and is under contract through 2024. We know teams can get out of contracts whenever they want, but there is some comfort he is now only in the 2nd year of his new contract.
- Giovani Bernard is no longer on the roster, and Joe Mixon is expected to see an increase in workload this season because he will stay on the field for passing downs too.
- In 6 games in 2020, averaged his most rush attempts/game in his career (19.8) and his most receptions/game in his career (3.5) for an average total of 23.3 touches/game.
- In 2020, Dalvin Cook averaged 25.4 touches/game, Derrick Henry averaged 24.8, and Alvin Kamara averaged 18 to put Joe Mixon in perspective.
- Before 2020, Mixon had only missed 4 out of 48 games (8.3%). We do not know how serious Mixon’s injury was in 2020, but when Burrow got hurt it was a lost season for the Bengals so it made sense not to risk Mixon for the rest of the season.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire’s current dynasty ADP, from DLF.com, is 25.83, which is the start of the 3rd round. CEH’s lowest point of value was in March 2021 at pick 27.33 (early 3rd round), and his value hasn’t changed much since he has only moved up 1.5 picks from his low point. CEH’s peak value was in October 2020 at pick 4.25 (early/mid 1st round). He skyrocketed in August 2020 after Damien Williams opted out due to COVID, which made CEH the starting RB of the high-powered Chiefs offense. CEH had his highest points scored game Week 6 (10/19/20) against Buffalo with 20.9 PPR points. Then Le’Veon Bell joined the Chiefs and started playing in Week 7 and CEH’s dropped significantly. As a rookie, CEH had a good season, but so many people had such high expectations when he became the starter. That disappointment is what dropped his value by 2 rounds. Now is the time to trade for CEH because he will have a better season this year then his value will jump back up, and then you will need to give up more to acquire him. Here are the reasons why you should trade for Clyde Edwards-Helaire right now:
- He is only 22 years old going into his second season.
- Before Le’Veon Bell joined the team (Weeks 1-6), CEH averaged 21.3 touches/game, and then from Weeks 7-17 (7 games played), he averaged 12.7 touches/game. That is a significant decrease in workload and Bell is no longer on the team for 2021.
- Damien Williams is not on the Chiefs anymore too, and it appears that CEH does not have competition from the other RBs on the roster for touches this season.
- CEH only scored 5 total TDs in 13 games, 0.38 TD/game, and scored every 43.4 touches. For perspective, Nick Chubb had 216 touches in 12 games and scored 12 total TDs, 1 TD/game, and scored a TD every 18 touches. It is not likely that CEH will be that efficient at scoring in 2021, but there should be positive regression for his TDs.
- The Chiefs made moves in the offseason to improve their offensive line, which can only help CEH improve his efficiency.
- According to FantasyData.com, CEH was 27th in rushing attempts from within the 5 yard-line with 9 attempts and only scored 1 TD. J.K. Dobbins also had 9 attempts but was able to score 8 rushing TDs. CEH will improve converting goal-line touches into TDs.
Chris Carson’s current dynasty ADP, from DLF.com, is 60.67, which is the start of the 5th round. Caron’s lowest point of value was March 2020 (84.33) and March 2021 (84.17) because fantasy managers were concerned that Carson would not re-sign with the Seattle Seahawks. Even though Carson’s value has jumped two rounds since he will be with Seattle and he does not have any expected significant competition for touches in the backfield. He is the oldest running back in this article, but he has been a consistent high-end RB2 and it will take fewer assets to acquire him compared to the other two RBs. Here are the reasons why you should trade for Chris Carson right now:
- He is still only 27 years old and still looks strong going into his fifth season.
- Carson is a model of consistency performing well:
- 2020 – finished 14th in PPR PPG (15.7)
- 2019 – finished 13th in PPR PPG (15.5)
- 2018 – finished 15th PPR PPG (14.4)
- He finished 8th in fantasy points over expectation/game, according to RotoViz.
- Carson saw a dip in production from the prior two seasons and still was able to score RB2 level points. He is expected to bounce back in 2021 and he is being drafted at a value in the 5th round.