Top dynasty RBs to trade away right now
By Jesse Moeller via JMoeller05
After the chaos in the NFL we saw in week 1, I wanted to give you a list of players I am looking to trade away in dynasty. Unfortunately, I do not see these players holding the current value long-term, otherwise known as depreciating assets. Given this is dynasty, instead of listing only older running backs, I wanted to mention a couple of veterans and a few young running backs that I do not see living up to the billing. For this article, we will be using the dynasty rankings on the DLF website.
The Vets
Derrick Henry RB7
Henry is the biggest name to trade away in dynasty among all running backs. If you can get the value of a top 7 running back, you should move him immediately. The issue with Henry is his inflated rushing volume and nonexistent pass-catching, which limits Henry in PPR leagues. In addition, it makes Henry a game script dependant running back, where if the Titans fall behind as they did in week one, it practically takes Henry out of the game.
Henry has a very high ceiling only exceeded by the elite pass-catching running backs in fantasy, and my issue is more with Henry’s floor as it is much lower than other top-tier running backs. Let’s take game one and break it down to show you my point. Henry ran the ball 17 times in a blowout loss. That may seem like a lot, but that is one of Henry’s lowest totals of the past two seasons. He only has five performances with less than 17 rushes in that period. Now, if you spread that out throughout a 16 game season, you see the big picture issue for Henry. His season total rushing comes out to 272 attempts, which is 106 attempts lower than his 2020 pace. If you gave Henry the same efficiency, his rushing totals come out to 1,457 yards and 12 touchdowns, a whopping 570 fewer rushing yards and five touchdowns fewer. That’s a significant blow to Henry’s value and would crater his dynasty value if that scenario plays out. Given Henry was drafted at his ceiling, advanced age, and has a new offensive coordinator calling plays, he is the name I am screaming to trade away while he still carries that elite fantasy value.
Mike Davis RB31
The Falcons brought over Derrick Henry’s offensive coordinator, so it must be wheels up for Mike Davis, right? There was a lot to like about the hire of Arthur Smith and why teams with Davis rostered had to be excited going into the year. The Falcons did not spend high draft capital or big money on a free agent to give Davis competition as the lead back this year. It set up for Davis to smash a second consecutive year, or at least that was the thought behind buying into Mike Davis this year.
My issue is that the Falcons do not resemble the Titans on offense and should not deploy Davis in that role because it is not in the Falcons’ strengths as a team on offense. Instead, you have Matt Ryan, Calvin Ridley, and Kyle Pitts. Those are the big names in fantasy this year, paired with a far inferior offensive line. It is not an ideal fit for Mike Davis to exceed expectations. The Falcons have a worse defense and questions marks on the line. I don’t see how that setup is strong for Davis this year from a fantasy perspective.
The problem for Davis is that he feels like a ticking time bomb this year in dynasty. If Arthur Smith does not adjust to his talent, it could spell doom for Davis. The sooner you do it, the better. The Buccaneers are in town this week, and it could be a long game for the Falcons. I would be happy to move Davis for the cost of a top 30 dynasty running back.
Young Bucks
Clyde Edwards-Helaire RB12
I have never understood the CEH hype, as people draft him due to the situation and not talent. It is how you set yourself up for failure as a dynasty manager””propping up worse players due to where they were drafted or signed as free agents. With CEH, the signs are there for us to take notice. What continues to concern me about him is the lack of targets, CEH’s calling card in college. His ability to be a pass-catching weapon. The community thought he would explode attached to Mahomes and the Chiefs offense. Instead, it was an up and down rookie year with a disappointing finish that stuck in the craw of managers. The problem is that CEH stayed in the top 12 RB range this offseason. Meaning for CEH to live up to expectations, he needed to produce high-end fantasy numbers.
I have seen enough from CEH to move on to get the return of an RB1 in dynasty. Whether you are a win-now or in a rebuild, you can pivot off of CEH to better options. Talk to a team with Sanders, Ekeler, Dobbins, Williams, or Montgomery and see if you can get that player+ in a return trade. I happily make that type of move to give me a boost for the short and long term.
Michael Carter RB24
If you bought into the hype of Carter, you were likely feeling good about the situation during the offseason. The problem is that when you boost players up due to the landing spot, it tends to bite you in the butt more often than not. Unfortunately, Carter, much like CEH, falls under this category. There are monumental red flags with Carter at the moment. He has fallen behind Ty Johnson and Tevin Coleman on the depth chart as the RB3 on his team. Suppose a player such as Carter cannot earn a role as a rookie, that makes me want to push the clock back another year or find a player similarly valued to try and trade-off Carter. The short-term and long-term prospects are murky at best. With the Jets’ offensive line issues, I do not want a Jets running back this year. I view the move as getting out before the floor collapses under this type of player in dynasty.
Think of the times you have held onto a player too long, and the value evaporated on your roster. I would much rather make a move and get a substantial return instead of being left holding the bag while you become a truther for this player.
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