What is the dynasty outlook for Michael Thomas?

By Calvin K (Twitter: @Calvin_SGF)

As any football fan knows, Michael Thomas has had more than his fair share of injury struggles as of late, starting just five games in the past two seasons combined and missing the entirety of 2021 due to an ankle injury. Thus, Thomas’s dynasty outlook seems extremely murky at the moment. In this article, I’ll sort through the muck by answering three important questions before getting to the final verdict on the former Offensive Player of The Year’s dynasty value.

What is Michael Thomas’ status with the Saints?

MT has expressed frustration in the past with the Saints’ handling of his injury, but a tweet he sent out on New Year’s Day seemed to imply that he no longer harbors bad feelings for the franchise. Thus, he looks set to play out another year of his contract in 2022 barring a trade, unless he’s cut. However, cutting MT this year would cost the Saints $22.7 million in dead cap, so that doesn’t seem to be much of a possibility at the moment. The saints may move away from Thomas in a future year, but unless he’s traded, he’s likely to be around for 2022.

He also expressed his gratitude to Sean Payton in a series of tweets as the Saints legendary coach announced his retirement. It’s not clear who will replace Payton, but it seems certain that Saints long-time offensive coordinator Pete Carmichael will call the shots moving forward.

What’s the best-case scenario for Michael Thomas in dynasty?

Thomas will be 29 years old heading into 2022, and his last stretch of fantasy dominance was in 2019, when he was easily the WR1 overall, capping an impressive run of four-straight top-seven fantasy finishes. At his best, Thomas is a great route-runner who can be lethal with his physicality and agility off the line. If Thomas returns to form, he could be a solid WR1 in a Jameis-Winston-led offense, or if Winston doesn’t re-sign with the Saints, he could still command a top-10, or even top-five target share league-wide as a safe underneath option. I don’t think there’s any doubt that Thomas still has the talent to be the Saints WR1 for a few more years. If the Saints get Wilson, he should have a very good floor until 2025.

When Taysom Hill even started three games in 2021, Thomas and Hill routinely put up modest numbers. Thomas caught 8 catches for 84 yards against the Eagles and 11 catches for 105 yards in a contest against the Falcons. When Brees was a shell of himself in the playoffs, Thomas still hauled in 73 yards and a touchdown against the Bears.

The loss of Sean Payton will hurt the offense (Kamara especially), but it won’t make a massive difference with Thomas. The Saints wideout is the far and alone WR1 and it helps that he can run any route in his sleep. Thomas is the best red zone weapon on the Saints, too.

What’s the worst-case scenario for Michael Thomas in dynasty?

Thomas just can’t seem to shake the injury troubles as of late, and if he suffers another setback or a different injury, that could potentially hobble him again in 2022. Furthermore, he might just not recover and return to prime form, given his age and the effect that long-lasting foot injuries can have on the quickness of a wide receiver. We saw Dez Bryant and even Julio Jones struggle with returning to form after foot injuries. Although, Thomas is a bit younger than those wideouts at the time of significant injury. If Thomas is this far past his prime, it could mean devastation for his dynasty managers, but there is certainly a wide range of outcomes for his dynasty value in the future.

Final Verdict

Thomas certainly has the upside to be an elite receiver again. For a win-now dynasty team, I’d still look to trade for him, as long as he’s not being severely overvalued by a manager who considers him a top-15 dynasty guy.

The fact is, there are a lot of good, young receivers coming into the league, and though it seems crazy to think about, a young player like Elijah Moore or DeVonta Smith could easily end up being a better dynasty asset. Smith has a safe QB situation, as well. I’m not making a declarative statement on that either way, but I’d value Thomas around where those two are right now, as a back-end WR2/high WR3 with win-now upside. If you’re a rebuilding team looking to acquire MT, I’d definitely advise against it. But that upside is extremely enticing, and they’re certainly may be an opportunity to capitalize in your league on a manager who’s weary of his injuries.