What is the dynasty outlook of Terry McLaurin?
By: Justin Frye
To me, easily the biggest Terry McLaurin question of the offseason is whether the Washington Footb… Commanders can find a better option to get McLaurin the ball in 2022 and hopefully beyond. The talent and opportunity are all there for him to succeed with competent QB play.
What are the Commanders likely to do at QB?
Let’s start by looking at the options available. While free agency is thought to be underwhelming, there are a couple of interesting names there. The Commanders reportedly tried in the 2021 season to acquire then Bill backup QB Mitchell Trubisky. People might scoff at that being an upgrade from Taylor Heinicke, but the former second overall pick has guided multiple playoff teams and made a Pro Bowl appearance. It appears like many of the issues in Chicago were tied to former coach Matt Nagy, and I’m not writing Trubisky off yet.
I’m not sure how the Commanders feel about former top two picks Jameis Winston or Marcus Mariota, but they’re the other two big prizes of the QB class. Both have shown the tendency in the past to hyper-target their top receiver, which would keep McLaurin in the top 15 conversations again. These might be the top options they can get, as Russell Wilson, Derek Carr, and Kirk Cousins all feel unlikely to move. Trading for Deshaun Watson with the allegations against owner Daniel Snyder seems irresponsible.
The Commanders could try and trade for Jimmy Garoppolo and solidify the most important spot for the short term as well. Garoppolo is likely to be moved to open a spot for Trey Lance, but I’d expect him to prefer other teams with his no-trade clause. He’s a solid QB, but I’m unsure if he’s an improvement over the free agency options for McLaurin’s value.
None of the above moves preclude the Commanders drafting a QB though, who could grow with McLaurin in the league and learn to hyper-target his best playmaker. Former Ole Miss QB Matt Corral would be a strong fit with his athleticism and high ceiling, especially with the opportunity to sit a season. Whatever they do, expect more stability in 2022 and moving forward, which has to be a welcome change.
What if the Commanders add target competition?
Terry McLaurin has been the only show in town at receiver since debuting in Washington. They drafted Dyami Brown last year who didn’t have a ton of impact but showed flashes, and signed Curtis Samuel who couldn’t stay healthy in 2021. With these two back, there’s a shot the Commanders add at the position but it shouldn’t be a premier player who would take the top role.
Even if they added an Allen Robinson or Mike Williams type in free agency, that is likely to only help McLaurin. Any loss in targets is going to be offset by increased efficiency. More target competition will make it harder to double team anyone, and shifting attention away can only help.
So what does all this mean for Terry McLaurin?
In his first three seasons, McLaurin has finished within the 20s at WR in fantasy every season. This with a group of uninspiring QBs targeting him. The reports are out there that Washington’s top offseason priority is to upgrade the position. Whoever is there, hopefully, the Commanders find consistency over the next few seasons during the prime years of McLaurin’s career.
Based on the expected target volume, I’d feel really comfortable with him as my second WR on my roster, as his weekly upside is elite but the consistency has been a struggle. As a contender, I’d be seeking out McLaurin now before the QB upgrade comes and the price inevitably goes up. If I’m rebuilding, I would be willing to sell for younger pieces once the QB spot is fixed.
Players who see the opportunity McLaurin has over the last few seasons tend to pop at some point. Look at the WOPR tweet, players with strong QB play are the elite WRs and the ones who struggled have middling to poor QB situations. Go buy the dip now before his situation improves and he jumps up into the top 10 if you believe the Commanders fix their QB play.
