What is the dynasty outlook for Jimmy Garoppolo?
By Calvin K (Twitter: @Calvin_SGF)
Jimmy Garoppolo had a decidedly mediocre season for the 49ers in 2021, throwing for 3,810 yards and 20 touchdowns along with 12 interceptions. At times, Garoppolo appeared to play at a stable level, but often, his decision-making was put on blast for his head-scratching mistakes. Overall, Garoppolo is clearly not a terrible QB, but he’s also far from great, and because of this, it appears all but certain that the 49ers will look to move Garoppolo in trade and transition to Trey Lance as their 2022 starter. In this article, I’ll evaluate the best and worst-case scenarios for Garoppolo before reaching the final verdict.
Best-Case Scenario
Garoppolo gets plenty of hate for his erratic play, but the fact remains that he has reached two NFC championship games, with one resulting in a Super Bowl appearance in 2019. Many argue, validly, that San Francisco’s stellar defense and supporting casts played a big role in those runs. However, the basic premise that Garoppolo is a winner is still true, and while that may not mean much for fantasy, it could mean more to teams in pursuit of a QB, putting him in a position to likely be a starter in 2022.
If Garoppolo was moved to a spot such as Pittsburgh or Washington to start, he could have moderate fantasy success surrounded by solid weapons, as both teams have a quality RB (Najee Harris, Antonio Gibson), as well as quality pass-catchers who can handle big target loads (Diontae Johnson/Chase Claypool, Terry McLaurin). Both teams would likely see Jimmy G as an upgrade over their current situations, especially the Steelers, who will almost certainly not ride into 2022 with Mason Rudolph as their starter. If Garoppolo lands with either of these teams, a 4,000-yard, high-20-touchdown season would not be out of the realm of possibility (he had 3,978 and 27 when playing 16 games in 2019), and if he achieves those benchmarks, he would be a reliable QB2 for dynasty leagues, although his longevity in doing so could come into question.
Worst-Case Scenario
Jimmy G haters can rejoice because the worst-case scenario for Garoppolo does not shine a fun outlook on him for dynasty. There’s always the possibility that he gets moved to a team that subsequently drafts a quarterback, putting him in a potential QB competition and making his starting status uncertain. If he gets beat out by a young QB such as Matt Corral, Kenny Pickett, or Malik Willis, that could mark the end of his fantasy value. Additionally, given his limited rushing and deep passing upside, he provides little top-tier fantasy upside anyway, so he could be deemed irrelevant for dynasty – outside of Superflex leagues – even if he finds a starting role.
Garoppolo also only has one year left on his big contract, so his deal could run out, putting him in potential QB purgatory if his performance doesn’t meet expectations. Given the quarterback thirst from NFL teams, it’s likely that Garoppolo has not seen his last action as a starter, but he has very little contractual security at this point, so his starting status is certainly in question at the moment.
Verdict
Overall, the verdict on Jimmy Garoppolo is that he’s not likely to provide QB1 dynasty value. He could become a solid QB2 in the right spot, but that type of player provides little value for single-QB dynasty players given the ease of replacing a quarterback in fantasy football.
For Superflex leagues, Garoppolo in Washington or Pittsburgh could provide semi-consistent week-to-week value given the weapons around him. However, if he continues to make erratic mistakes, his long-term security could once again be called into question. Garoppolo is not a player you should look to acquire in single-QB dynasty leagues. In Superflex, perhaps he’s a good trade target at a cheap enough price, but there’s still plenty of downsides to be wary of, which doesn’t cast his future in a particularly good light.
